Israel Will Strike

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
41

It does seem that things are becoming more tense and provocative with Iran. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Persian state’s nuclear facilities were attacked directly by the west in the future.

Read today that Iran’s religious leader once again threatened the destruction of Israel.

“Iran Threatens Israel With Destruction, But the Times Doesn?t Hear It”
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/02/03/iran-khamenei-threat-israel-new-york-times/

& there was news of Iran working with Al Qaeda.

“US fears Iran’s links to Al Qaeda as officials believe country may have provided aid to terror group”

That would be a worst case scenario for the west and the world for that matter - Iran working with suicidal Al Qaeda, and being nuclear capable.

44

Hypothetically if Iran were to completely wipe Israel off the face of the Earth where do you think they would go after that? They wouldn’t just be content with that. I mean They certainly don’t care for the “Palestinians”. In the whole Arab hierarchy these “Palestinians” are at the bottom and no one in the Arab community really care for them. This whole pursuit isn’t under the guise of “Palestinian” liberation. The success of Israel represents the success of America and for them to bring about the destruction of Israel is for them to get one step closer towards the destruction of America and all that she represents.

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]apbt55 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:
DB, you’re failing to recognize there is exactly ONE (1) rational player in the Middle East.

Israel.

Only one.

Uno.[/quote]

Well Push, the way I see it, there’s a considerable amount of irrationality to even Israel’s alleged intentions in this whole thing, let alone any American intention to openly back it.[/quote]

Are you serious, If I live two houses down from you and make public claims I want to shoot you in the head, that you should die, that I should wipe you and your family off the face of the earth, then start bringing in military grade firearms and keep saying they are for hunting, wouldn’t you feel the need to take action. Or should you wait for me to wipe you and your family off the face of the earth.

This battle is inevitable, better get it over with then postpone and give people who have no value for your or their life the chance to take half of the world with them[/quote]

If I lived in a neighborhood where not only the guy two doors down wanted to kill me, but the guy next door to me, across the street, on the corner, behind me and so forth also wanted to kill me, I’d fucking move. I wouldn’t go into the guy’s house two doors down and slit his fucking throat and expect that to be the end of it.

And I get that it’s an inevitable battle. I just feel that this isn’t America’s battle, we don’t need to become involved at all to see things play out generally the way we want them to, and I don’t see one fucking obligation we have toward Israel that puts our long-term prospects there at risk.[/quote]

46

If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

48

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.

49

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

No one is going to ride openly to Iran’s help on this. Though they may get covert help from the Russians, no one is going to go against the US’s military arsenal, no matter what. Never piss off your biggest customer

However opposition within Iran, which is increasing if not at the apex it was in 2009, will be stifled. Regardless of the Mullahs/Ahmedinejad’s brutality, people will unite against foreign invasion - every Persian I’ve met and they all hate Ahmedinejad, assures me this and I understand their view - you might hate the guy but it’s your country right? - and anyone who rebels against them will be seen as a US stooge and treated accordingly. There’s still huge anti US and anti-UK distrust from the disposition of Mossadeq.

So you have a population in Iran united against invaders/air strikes/whatever. You have Iraq, which is becoming since withdrawal very quickly a Shia Iranian proxy, not to mention proxies in Syria/West Bank/east saudi arabia (where all the oil is!) etc. These will cause all kinds of nuisance and Iran will let loose all its lot at Saudi Arabia, whose Sunni government it truly hates. So do the Saudis - they’re more hawkish than the Israelis! - and as an aside if the Saudis aren’t developing a nuclear bomb then I’m Jane Fonda.

The Iranians will try to block the Strait of Hormuz, but even if they are not completely successful the effect will be catastrophic on oil prices. Oil is already a hindrance to recovery at circa $100 and it will screw us over at double that and more (you’ll pay Scottish prices for petrol - $11 a gallon!). This is why I think Obama will not do anything, if he does it, until after elections so not to screw with the recovery.

This will probably lead to further destabilisation of Pakistan and certainly destabilisation of Afghanistan.

That whole place is a tinderbox ready to blow.

50

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

The EU has imposed sanctions on oil from Iran. Countries that import it have until June to find alternate contracts. If you have beef with anyone take it to South Korea, India and China.

51

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

US launches drones and planes from Nimitz class carrier.

Iran launches a few dozens super sonic anti ship missiles against carrier group and declares than any and all tankers passing through the straight of Hormuz will be sunk.

While a decimated carrier fleet limps to the next harbor not within reach of Iranian weapons, oil prices are approaching 400$ a barrel.

The official US unemployment statistic is still at 9%, Shadowstats maps it around 25-30%.

China decides that they will never get their money back anyway and that the US has become more of a nuisance than is justified to keep around and refuses to buy US bonds.

People ditch their USD all around the world and flee into the Euro, US inflation soars.

People in the US try to get rid of their dollars, the velocity of money increases significantly, hyperinflation gets to be a realistic possibility.

The fact that Obama breaks down on public television and declares that “he only meant well” does little to inflate confidence in the dollar.

The US is becoming a decreasingly unpopular union, whether that will lead to a police state or a secession movement is up in the air right now.

52

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

Nonsense.

The oil price is determined by marginal demand, there is no reason to believe that Canadian or Venezuelan oil will automatically be delivered to you.

In fact, I bet that a lot of countries would rather deliver it to us, provided that we pay what you would pay?

Need I remind you that the average European household needs one half of the energy of a US one and you do not really have twice the GDP per capita to offset that.

In short, we could, and would, outbid you.

We need less and make about the same as you do, you cannot compete.

53

[quote]Bambi wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

The EU has imposed sanctions on oil from Iran. Countries that import it have until June to find alternate contracts. If you have beef with anyone take it to South Korea, India and China.[/quote]

You were talking about financial armageddon if there was a conflict with Iran. I stated that those already fragile economies would be fucked.

Iran has already stated that they will cut off the oil to those countries with whom they had contracts with if they joined the embargo.

Thusly fucking those delicate, recovering european economies.

54

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

Nonsense.

The oil price is determined by marginal demand, there is no reason to believe that Canadian or Venezuelan oil will automatically be delivered to you.

In fact, I bet that a lot of countries would rather deliver it to us, provided that we pay what you would pay?

Need I remind you that the average European household needs one half of the energy of a US one and you do not really have twice the GDP per capita to offset that.

In short, we could, and would, outbid you.

We need less and make about the same as you do, you cannot compete. [/quote]

I was not talking about the U.S. o’ late arriving Orion.

I was speaking of those euro joiners of the embargo, who cannot afford for Iran to cut them off before they are ready.

55

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

The EU has imposed sanctions on oil from Iran. Countries that import it have until June to find alternate contracts. If you have beef with anyone take it to South Korea, India and China.[/quote]

You were talking about financial armageddon if there was a conflict with Iran. I stated that those already fragile economies would be fucked.

Iran has already stated that they will cut off the oil to those countries with whom they had contracts with if they joined the embargo.

Thusly fucking those delicate, recovering european economies.
[/quote]

Southern Europe’s already in a deathspiral. However if the Iranians made any sort of embargo, northern Europe, the USA and others would all follow.

56

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

The EU has imposed sanctions on oil from Iran. Countries that import it have until June to find alternate contracts. If you have beef with anyone take it to South Korea, India and China.[/quote]

You were talking about financial armageddon if there was a conflict with Iran. I stated that those already fragile economies would be fucked.

Iran has already stated that they will cut off the oil to those countries with whom they had contracts with if they joined the embargo.

Thusly fucking those delicate, recovering european economies.
[/quote]

Fragile economies?

Opposed to what?

The US?

You are hardly better than Greece.

In fact you are Greece with a printing press and imperial ambitions.

I can assure that Northern Europe is, well, not better off, I dont know, stellar, fantastically better off, a shining beacon of financial responsibility, compared to the US that is.

And dude, there are like OECD reports and whatnot.

They are not kept secret either.

57

[quote]Bambi wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

The EU has imposed sanctions on oil from Iran. Countries that import it have until June to find alternate contracts. If you have beef with anyone take it to South Korea, India and China.[/quote]

You were talking about financial armageddon if there was a conflict with Iran. I stated that those already fragile economies would be fucked.

Iran has already stated that they will cut off the oil to those countries with whom they had contracts with if they joined the embargo.

Thusly fucking those delicate, recovering european economies.
[/quote]

Southern Europe’s already in a deathspiral. However if the Iranians made any sort of embargo, northern Europe, the USA and others would all follow.[/quote]

Sure, but we can outbid you.

We would not follow as readily as you would fall, which is important because the moment you are down the embargo stops.

58

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

Nonsense.

The oil price is determined by marginal demand, there is no reason to believe that Canadian or Venezuelan oil will automatically be delivered to you.

In fact, I bet that a lot of countries would rather deliver it to us, provided that we pay what you would pay?

Need I remind you that the average European household needs one half of the energy of a US one and you do not really have twice the GDP per capita to offset that.

In short, we could, and would, outbid you.

We need less and make about the same as you do, you cannot compete. [/quote]

I was not talking about the U.S. o’ late arriving Orion.

I was speaking of those euro joiners of the embargo, who cannot afford for Iran to cut them off before they are ready.
[/quote]

They are fucked anyway.

They never will be ready.

59

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

The EU has imposed sanctions on oil from Iran. Countries that import it have until June to find alternate contracts. If you have beef with anyone take it to South Korea, India and China.[/quote]

You were talking about financial armageddon if there was a conflict with Iran. I stated that those already fragile economies would be fucked.

Iran has already stated that they will cut off the oil to those countries with whom they had contracts with if they joined the embargo.

Thusly fucking those delicate, recovering european economies.
[/quote]

Southern Europe’s already in a deathspiral. However if the Iranians made any sort of embargo, northern Europe, the USA and others would all follow.[/quote]

Sure, but we can outbid you.

We would not follow as readily as you would fall, which is important because the moment you are down the embargo stops. [/quote]

Forgive me but I wouldn’t class Austria as ‘southern’ Europe - it’s definitely one of the parts of the EU that’s most successful!

60

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

Nonsense.

The oil price is determined by marginal demand, there is no reason to believe that Canadian or Venezuelan oil will automatically be delivered to you.

In fact, I bet that a lot of countries would rather deliver it to us, provided that we pay what you would pay?

Need I remind you that the average European household needs one half of the energy of a US one and you do not really have twice the GDP per capita to offset that.

In short, we could, and would, outbid you.

We need less and make about the same as you do, you cannot compete. [/quote]

I was not talking about the U.S. o’ late arriving Orion.

I was speaking of those euro joiners of the embargo, who cannot afford for Iran to cut them off before they are ready.
[/quote]

They are fucked anyway.

They never will be ready. [/quote]

First off…Germany is doing better than most(which I’m sure is all that you care about anyway) I would not lump all of Northern Europe together…we will see if they continue to support the rest of the continent.

The U.S. will not be crippled by a loss of Iranian oil, other countries will up their production per agreement (Saudi Arabia for one) and even though they will not be able to cover all of it, there will be enough to prevent a panic.