Assuming that Iran will have a functional nuclear weapons program in the immediate future, and given that MAD and ABMD shields are the basis for our nuclear policy, can a nuclear-armed Iran be deterred from using their new-found weaponology?
IF:
Yes, explain how and the rationale for your view
No, explain why not and the likely scenario where they would employ nuclear weapons.
[quote]IrishSteel wrote:
can a nuclear-armed Iran be deterred from using their new-found weaponology?
[/quote]
Are you asking if Iran will start WWIII?
Nope - asking what you believe regarding their use/non-use of nuclear weapons and how, if possible, we (the US or any state/NGO) can deter them from actually using them. Pretty straight forward question . . .
They are going to end up with a nuclear weapon (barring drastric action by Israel) and as such a reality dawns upon the geo-political stage, what are its likely affects on current nuclear policy?
The Obama administration has formally disclosed the size of the Defense Departmentâ??s stockpile of nuclear weapons: 5,113 warheads as of September 30, 2009.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/05/stockpilenumber.php
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)
[quote]joebassin wrote:
The Obama administration has formally disclosed the size of the Defense Departmentâ??s stockpile of nuclear weapons: 5,113 warheads as of September 30, 2009.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/05/stockpilenumber.php
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
You really excel at finding new ways of completely exposing your lack of understanding, its like watching a little puppy chew on an eletrical chord . . .
[quote]joebassin wrote:
The Obama administration has formally disclosed the size of the Defense Departmentâ??s stockpile of nuclear weapons: 5,113 warheads as of September 30, 2009.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/05/stockpilenumber.php
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
Since I feel I owe you one non sarcastic post after misrepresenting one of yours I’ll explain. There is no such thing as a deterrent to someone who’s god is telling them to blow you up. That’s the best I can do and were even now.
[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
The Obama administration has formally disclosed the size of the Defense Department�¢??s stockpile of nuclear weapons: 5,113 warheads as of September 30, 2009.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/05/stockpilenumber.php
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
Since I feel I owe you one non sarcastic post after misrepresenting one of yours I’ll explain. There is no such thing as a deterrent to someone who’s god is telling them to blow you up. That’s the best I can do and were even now.[/quote]
The thing is if they use one they are gonna be wipe off the map immediately. Also why not attack Pakistan since they have nuclear weapons and they are an Islamist country. (Islam being recognized as the state religion by their constitution) Part I: "Introductory"
If their god is telling them to blow you up then why is Pakistan a US ally?
[quote]IrishSteel wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
The Obama administration has formally disclosed the size of the Defense Department�¢??s stockpile of nuclear weapons: 5,113 warheads as of September 30, 2009.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/05/stockpilenumber.php
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
You really excel at finding new ways of completely exposing your lack of understanding, its like watching a little puppy chew on an eletrical chord . . . [/quote]
Why don’t you expose us to your divine knowledge Oh master of supreme truth and reason.
[quote]joebassin wrote:
[quote]IrishSteel wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
The Obama administration has formally disclosed the size of the Defense Department�??�?�¢??s stockpile of nuclear weapons: 5,113 warheads as of September 30, 2009.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/05/stockpilenumber.php
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
You really excel at finding new ways of completely exposing your lack of understanding, its like watching a little puppy chew on an eletrical chord . . . [/quote]
Why don’t you expose us to your divine knowledge Oh master of supreme truth and reason. [/quote]
Look man. There has to be a way to make you understand how easy you make it for people to bounce you around. Now you totally misunderstood MY post. The point was, when somebody believes God is telling them to do something, no earthly deterrence is possible if they’re serious about that belief. Add to that the fact that dying in their pursuit is a welcome friend to them and YOU TELL ME what is going to dissuade them.
[quote]joebassin wrote:
[quote]IrishSteel wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
The Obama administration has formally disclosed the size of the Defense Department�?�¢??s stockpile of nuclear weapons: 5,113 warheads as of September 30, 2009.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/05/stockpilenumber.php
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
You really excel at finding new ways of completely exposing your lack of understanding, its like watching a little puppy chew on an eletrical chord . . . [/quote]
Why don’t you expose us to your divine knowledge Oh master of supreme truth and reason. [/quote]
any divine knowledge I might know comes from the Bible - you can read it for yourself . . . 
[quote]IrishSteel wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
[quote]IrishSteel wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
The Obama administration has formally disclosed the size of the Defense Department�??�?�¢??s stockpile of nuclear weapons: 5,113 warheads as of September 30, 2009.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/05/stockpilenumber.php
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
You really excel at finding new ways of completely exposing your lack of understanding, its like watching a little puppy chew on an eletrical chord . . . [/quote]
Why don’t you expose us to your divine knowledge Oh master of supreme truth and reason. [/quote]
any divine knowledge I might know comes from the Bible - you can read it for yourself . . . :)[/quote]
you reassure me
[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
[quote]IrishSteel wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
The Obama administration has formally disclosed the size of the Defense Department�??�?�¢??s stockpile of nuclear weapons: 5,113 warheads as of September 30, 2009.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2010/05/stockpilenumber.php
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
You really excel at finding new ways of completely exposing your lack of understanding, its like watching a little puppy chew on an eletrical chord . . . [/quote]
Why don’t you expose us to your divine knowledge Oh master of supreme truth and reason. [/quote]
Look man. There has to be a way to make you understand how easy you make it for people to bounce you around. Now you totally misunderstood MY post. The point was, when somebody believes God is telling them to do something, no earthly deterrence is possible if their serious about that belief. Add to that the fact that dying in their pursuit is a welcome friend to them and YOU TELL ME what is going to dissuade them. [/quote]
Not sure why you are answering to this since it was not directed at you.
My reply to you was:
The thing is if they use one they are gonna be wipe off the map immediately. Also why not attack Pakistan since they have nuclear weapons and they are an Islamist country. (Islam being recognized as the state religion by their constitution) Part I: "Introductory"
If their god is telling them to blow you up then why is Pakistan a US ally?
May be you consider Iran a unique islamist country?
[quote]joebassin wrote:
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
It’s only a deterrent if the potential deter-ee thinks we would actually use them.
[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
It’s only a deterrent if the potential deter-ee thinks we would actually use them.[/quote]
Agree. But considering history do you think they should have reasons to believe the US would not use them?
How bout our president?
A nuclear equipment Iran would not use the weapon. I think people need to understand what these weapons are used for: deterrence. Iran has to constantly worry about Israel and the United States. I don’t blame them from wanting to pursue this weapon. I do blame them though for other things they are involved in (fake elections).
[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
How bout our president?[/quote]
I think he would use them if they were used on us.
[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
[quote]joebassin wrote:
Is somebody crazy enough to think that this is not a deterrent. (except Irishsteel and Pushharder, of course)[/quote]
It’s only a deterrent if the potential deter-ee thinks we would actually use them.[/quote]
…and, as others have commented, the deter-ees make rational calculations parallel to the deter-ers. Deter-ees may prefer martyrdom to humiliation, as they perceive it.
Ahmadinejad is on record as preferring that Iran be burnt to the ground if it means that “the Little Satan” is destroyed. If one thinks that Ahmadinejad is an aberration, that others in Iran are rational in the Western sense of deterrence, think again.
In December 2001, former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani–a man often described as a moderate and a pragmatist in the Western press–noted in his Qods Day speech that “if one day, the Islamic world is also equipped with weapons like those that Israel possesses now, then the imperialists’ strategy will reach a standstill because the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality.”
Why does Iran talk so much about their weapons and dream of wiping out Israel?
Why dont they keep hush-hush?
Isn’t these the questions we should be asking?
The point of deterrence is not so much a question of whether or not they will use the nuclear device in combat scenarios, but whether or not their many other activities in support of terrorist organization will be increased and emboldened by their possession of the ultimate threat. It is that particualr vein of reasoning that we must be alert to and prepared for.
What’s to prevent them from sending more advanced weapons to Hamas or Hezbollah or the Taliban to escalate their wars if they have the fall-back protection of nuclear firepower. How do we deter an increase in these types of activities given their current proclivities for suporting these organizations and fomenting unrest WITHOUT nukes once they do actually possess them?