Israel Will Strike

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
61

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

Nonsense.

The oil price is determined by marginal demand, there is no reason to believe that Canadian or Venezuelan oil will automatically be delivered to you.

In fact, I bet that a lot of countries would rather deliver it to us, provided that we pay what you would pay?

Need I remind you that the average European household needs one half of the energy of a US one and you do not really have twice the GDP per capita to offset that.

In short, we could, and would, outbid you.

We need less and make about the same as you do, you cannot compete. [/quote]

I was not talking about the U.S. o’ late arriving Orion.

I was speaking of those euro joiners of the embargo, who cannot afford for Iran to cut them off before they are ready.
[/quote]

They are fucked anyway.

They never will be ready. [/quote]

First off…Germany is doing better than most(which I’m sure is all that you care about anyway) I would not lump all of Northern Europe together…we will see if they continue to support the rest of the continent.

The U.S. will not be crippled by a loss of Iranian oil, other countries will up their production per agreement (Saudi Arabia for one) and even though they will not be able to cover all of it, there will be enough to prevent a panic.
[/quote]

How will Saudi Arabia supply and deliver it though with a) Shia rebellions inthe east where all the oil is hindeirng supply b) possible no-go zones in the gulf. Bear in mind the Iranians will hit the americans where it hurts and will no doubt launch everything they have at oil installations. It’ll be brutal

64

[quote]joutmez wrote:
Hypothetically if Iran were to completely wipe Israel off the face of the Earth where do you think they would go after that? They wouldn’t just be content with that. I mean They certainly don’t care for the “Palestinians”. In the whole Arab hierarchy these “Palestinians” are at the bottom and no one in the Arab community really care for them. This whole pursuit isn’t under the guise of “Palestinian” liberation. The success of Israel represents the success of America and for them to bring about the destruction of Israel is for them to get one step closer towards the destruction of America and all that she represents.

[quote]

Question: if Iran launched a first strike nuclear or conventional offensive against Israel, wouldn’t they be in danger of destroying the Al-Aqsa Mosque? If they destroyed it, what would happen to their standing in the muslim world? Would the Sunni Muslims turn on them?

65

[quote]orion wrote:

US launches drones and planes from Nimitz class carrier.

Iran launches a few dozens super sonic anti ship missiles against carrier group and declares than any and all tankers passing through the straight of Hormuz will be sunk.

While a decimated carrier fleet limps to the next harbor not within reach of Iranian weapons, oil prices are approaching 400$ a barrel.

[/quote]

I have a question sir. What are US carriers doing within a 1000 miles of the Gulf? Why aren’t they in the Indian Ocean way out of Iranian missile range? And, do you know anything at all about modern warfare?

67

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

Nonsense.

The oil price is determined by marginal demand, there is no reason to believe that Canadian or Venezuelan oil will automatically be delivered to you.

In fact, I bet that a lot of countries would rather deliver it to us, provided that we pay what you would pay?

Need I remind you that the average European household needs one half of the energy of a US one and you do not really have twice the GDP per capita to offset that.

In short, we could, and would, outbid you.

We need less and make about the same as you do, you cannot compete. [/quote]

There is a lot of “we” and “us” here, as if the EU can agree on which direction to wipe its ass, let alone come together on major economic policy.

If the average EU household needs half the energy of a US house, then rest assured the oil producing countries know where their bread is buttered. The US is the largest energy customer, and the Saudis and Venezuelans know that. You think the Iran can really shut down Saudi shipping lines and the Saudis will just sit on their hands while the livelihood of their nation withers? No, they will open their airfields to our warplanes and let us destroy any Iranian blockade.

Iran is in for a rude awakening if they think the rest of the world is secretly on their side and is just waiting for them to stand up to the big bad USA.

68

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only way I see Iran causing us an economic catastrophe is if a nuclear weapon is detonated above Israel. Conventional warfare will not cause an issue.

Perhaps Israel launches a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear assets, and while Iran impotently rages about being attacked a certain Dear Successor craves making a big splash on the world stage and loans a nuclear device to Iran, or launches it themselves on a Taepodong-2. Tel Aviv is destroyed and the ensuing nuclear fallout travels on the prevailing winds, blanketing Iraq, Iran (ironic, no?) and Saudi Arabia, irradiating oil fields with nuclear snow. Oil prices rise, and even with our strategic reserves opened, we see food prices skyrocket. Farmers can’t afford to run their combines, trucks can’t afford to deliver the grain.

A lot of the above - admittedly fantastical - scenario depends on the size of a North Korean nuke. Their latest test was only in the 20 kTon range, making it about the same size as what was dropped on Japan. That fallout would likely not affect the larger Mideast region. If they’ve progressed though, it is a possibility.

69

If Israeli attacks Iran, Hezbollah will unload all of their rockets on Israel. Lebanon may also get involved if Israel is forced to invade defending itself.

If a war breaks out, what’s the chances of a larger war between Sunnis and Shia happening?

Last time the West backed Persia against the Ottoman Empire. This time, I’m not so sure.

70

So, how long do you think this war would last?

CS

71

Anyone got any ideas about what might be going on? Ehud Barak is talking publically about the need for Israel to take action. Presumably this is a ploy against opponents who are blocking action. By going to the media and talking publically he’s putting pressure on them? Panetta for some reason leaked a statement that the Israelis will launch a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities some time in April, May or June. Whitehouse then said he shouldn’t have said it. What possible purpose could this leak serve? Is Panetta just an idiot?

72

[quote]SexMachine wrote:
Anyone got any ideas about what might be going on? Ehud Barak is talking publically about the need for Israel to take action. Presumably this is a ploy against opponents who are blocking action. By going to the media and talking publically he’s putting pressure on them? Panetta for some reason leaked a statement that the Israelis will launch a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities some time in April, May or June. Whitehouse then said he shouldn’t have said it. What possible purpose could this leak serve? Is Panetta just an idiot?[/quote]

Maybe the same kind of bs about the Iranians taking down the drone. If they did so, why did the alleged person who did it go on record about HOW he did it.

If they have one of our drones and the ability to make them crash land, wouldn’t you keep that information secret?

73

[quote]SexMachine wrote:
Is Panetta just an idiot?[/quote]

I’ve heard Panetta called a lot of things, “idot” is not among them. Things seem to be in motion.

If I wasn’t so drunk, maybe I could figure out what they were (probably not…lol)

74

[quote]SexMachine wrote:
Anyone got any ideas about what might be going on? Ehud Barak is talking publically about the need for Israel to take action. Presumably this is a ploy against opponents who are blocking action. By going to the media and talking publically he’s putting pressure on them? Panetta for some reason leaked a statement that the Israelis will launch a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities some time in April, May or June. Whitehouse then said he shouldn’t have said it. What possible purpose could this leak serve? Is Panetta just an idiot?[/quote]

Panetta is far from being an idiot.

Most likely these public announcements serve the same purpose as dropping pamphlets and blaring Heavy Metal all night on a Taliban position; psychological.

It also forces the Iranians to increase their activity “on-the-ground”, especially around their nuclear sites.

Can all this be done covertly?

We shouldn’t think in terms of “either/or” as both overt AND covert pressure is being applied to Iran as we speak.

Mufasa

75

Good points mufasa. But it seems a very amateurish way to leak something to confuse the enemy. Something that the Iranians believe they found themselves would carry a lot more weight than a “leak” by the U.S. Defense Secretary to the media. The period mentioned coincides with the ending of a window of opportunity when Iran will apparently move an “unknown proportion of (its) uranium enrichment assets to the highly protected Fordow enrichment plant.”

And then there’s this to keep in mind:

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2012/01/us-and-israel-are-lousy-exercise-partners/47528/

76

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]SexMachine wrote:
‘I have a premonition that will not leave me. As it goes with Israel so will it go with all of us. Should Israel perish the holocaust will be upon us.’ - Eric Hoffer, 1968[/quote]

What a bunch of bullshit. I don’t want to sound insensitive here, but the U.S. will get along just fine without Israel. We did pretty fucking well when there was no Israel pre-1948. There is no correlation between enduring American prosperity and a continued, unwavering alliance/protection of Israel.[/quote]

You’ve got it wrong. I’ll explain it for you. What he is doing is using Israel as an analogy. Because of what happened in the Second World War - and because of Britain’s(and America’s) abandonment of Israel and the Jewish people - he is saying that if an enormous moral choice confronts us - such as supporting intervention in Sudan to prevent mass genocide or supporting Israel against the same sort of threat - he is saying that if we don’t side with decency then we will lose our own decency. And that he believes that siding with decency is the only hope for all of us. My personal opinion is that no one has ever supported Israel and that they don’t need any support. They have survived on their own resources and continue to do so. We need them as much, perhaps more than they need us.

77

For the record, Israel has my full permission to blow the fuck out of Iran’s nuclear facilities. They’ve done it before. It’s more effective than sanctions.

78

[quote]SexMachine wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

US launches drones and planes from Nimitz class carrier.

Iran launches a few dozens super sonic anti ship missiles against carrier group and declares than any and all tankers passing through the straight of Hormuz will be sunk.

While a decimated carrier fleet limps to the next harbor not within reach of Iranian weapons, oil prices are approaching 400$ a barrel.

[/quote]

I have a question sir. What are US carriers doing within a 1000 miles of the Gulf? Why aren’t they in the Indian Ocean way out of Iranian missile range? And, do you know anything at all about modern warfare?[/quote]

Because that is too far away to effectively project power.

But, even if they could do that over that distance, the Straight of Hormuz would still be where it was and, being 1000 miles away, could hardly stop Iran from sinking any oil tanker at will.

79

[quote]borrek wrote:

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]UtahLama wrote:

[quote]pushharder wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
If we invade Iran the resulting economic armageddon will make the fall of Lehmann Brothers look like a light prostate massage.

This is not to condone or condemn what the Israelis are doing, but I think this is a key issue holding players back right now.

[/quote]

Explain your hypothetical cascade of events. I’m truly interested in how you would see things go down.[/quote]

The only economic worry in all of this is for the broke european countries that have large oil contracts with Iran.[/quote]

Nonsense.

The oil price is determined by marginal demand, there is no reason to believe that Canadian or Venezuelan oil will automatically be delivered to you.

In fact, I bet that a lot of countries would rather deliver it to us, provided that we pay what you would pay?

Need I remind you that the average European household needs one half of the energy of a US one and you do not really have twice the GDP per capita to offset that.

In short, we could, and would, outbid you.

We need less and make about the same as you do, you cannot compete. [/quote]

There is a lot of “we” and “us” here, as if the EU can agree on which direction to wipe its ass, let alone come together on major economic policy.

If the average EU household needs half the energy of a US house, then rest assured the oil producing countries know where their bread is buttered. The US is the largest energy customer, and the Saudis and Venezuelans know that. You think the Iran can really shut down Saudi shipping lines and the Saudis will just sit on their hands while the livelihood of their nation withers? No, they will open their airfields to our warplanes and let us destroy any Iranian blockade.

Iran is in for a rude awakening if they think the rest of the world is secretly on their side and is just waiting for them to stand up to the big bad USA.
[/quote]

Bread is buttered…

Uhu…

And again, we need less, we can afford to pay more.

Prices are detewrmined at the margin.

80

[quote]DBCooper wrote:
I don’t think it’s true to state “those regimes are at war with us already.” There are certain elements within each of the countries I mentioned that are working against [/quote]

The bomb that blew my “up armored” hummer about 50 yards across a field was designed, made, and manufactured by the Iranian government. It was detonated by terrorists funded and trained if not in Iran, then by Iranians.

My situation was hardly unique.

If that’s not “at war with us already” I don’t know what the fuck it is.

I hope the Israelis decide an small air raid is not possible without US help and just nukes the fuck out of Iran due to lack of options.