[quote]on edge wrote:
[quote]Vegita wrote:
[quote]TD54 wrote:
[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]TD54 wrote:
[quote]ZEB wrote:
[quote]TD54 wrote:
I posted this in the aliens exist thread. It looks like this one is gettin a bit more attention so i’ll put it here. Interested in what you guys have to say…
“Something i was thinking about… Many people are bringing up the argument that because of the bajillions and bajillions of other planets in the universe, the chances are very high that life could be sustainable on a shit ton of them and therefore aliens exist. The reason i don’t think this argument is valid is because we have no idea what the chances are of life ever being formed on a planet that is perfectly capable of sustaining life. It could be 1 to 1.0 x 10 ^ 1000 odds for all we know. We as a “life form” just happened to beat those odds. Not saying that aliens don’t exist, just something to think about. Prove me wrong if you can. I’m honestly not very knowledgeable at all in this area (but who is?).”
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There’s something called the “Drake equation” for figuring out if there are any other planets with life. The short answer from that equation is about 3.3 new planets per year where life forms.
If you want to believe it.
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yeah i remember seeing this a while back. It’s interesting to think about, but in the end there are waaaay too many assumptions and unproven or factually supported estimations made in the equation
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I agree, and when I see science take that sort of twist I have to question it. By the way do you really think that we’ll actually find out if there is life on any other planets in the near future?
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I have no idea, and i don’t think any of the leading scientists in the field could have even the slightest idea as to our chances of finding life elsewhere soon or in the very distant future. I’m not convinced that there even is life on other planets. I’m sure there are millions upon millions of planets that can support life, but that doesn’t seem to be the issue or the argument to me. I’m not sure that it’s even possible for life to spontaneously be created. Going from “not alive” to “alive” seems like a ridiculously unlikely occurrence, if possible at all hah. If however it was possible for life to be created spontaneously, we couldn’t possibly know the probability of it because we only have one planet to base the probability off of. Like i said in my first post, maybe life on this planet beat the odds of 1 to 1(followed by a thousand zeros). If that was the case there definitely isn’t other life forms out there to even detect. A simple response to the question though… I have no fucking clue hah
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Here is the basic answer. The odds of life forming cannot be 0 because we are here, so no matter how many zeroes you put before your second 1, life will happen again. I don’t think you are understanding how many stars there are in our universe. I mean we can “see” 13 billion years worth of galaxies in all directions because thats how long the light has taken to get here, each “year” we see a year further back in time and find more galaxies as thier light has now reached us.
If you wanted to be on the safe side and say 1 out of . (and then a trillion 0’s)1. There would still be Millions of other instances of life in the universe. Maybe not in our galaxy, but even if one out of every hundred thousand galaxies contained one planet with life, there would still be millions of planets with life.
Something cannot be 0 that is, so there has to be “odds” that life can take root. And there is seriously no odds that the universe can’t beat. Especially when you start thinking about life outside of the goldilocks zone. We may have life on Europa, a moon of Jupiter. There is a high probability that the moon has a liquid water ocean under it’s icy surface. So right in our own little solar system, there are potentially 2 ecosystems which could support the same tipe of life. I mean it’s likley we could find some rudimentary sea creatures in this ocean, surviving just like the organisms do on our ocean vents. But if that turns out to be the case. The odds go from whatever it is you think they are to say .01 chance in every solar system.
From my perspective, the most important mission man can undertake right now and one in which the entire world should pour it’s combined resources is getting a drilling probe to that moon and drilling through the ice and then releasing submersibles to send back data. It will answer a bunch of questions, like if there is water, does that mean life? Or does it just mean water?
V[/quote]
The odds of life occurring could be less than once per universe and we are just lucky it happened. For the record I doubt that’s the case.
Such a mission to explore Europa would be interesting but also a waste of money of epic proportions. First, we most likely wouldn’t find life. Second, even if we did find life it wouldn’t change anything for us but that money spent could have been used elsewhere for good. Mankind is not ready to explore the cosmos yet. We have more pressing needs. Yeah, yeah I know all the arguments. We wouldn’t have Tang and shit like that if not for the space program. Blah blah blah.
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Actually it could be done relatively cheaply. The technology already exists. All we need to do is put a mission together. Map out the path and speed etc…, let the nerds do thier work. Design a couple small nuclear powered submersibles.
You have a lander which houses the two submersibles or if it’s too heavy send two submersibles separately. The whole lander acts as a communication hub, it will gather signals from the submersibles and beam them back to earth. The home base needs to have about a mile of fiber optic cable, it can be thin, or maybe two miles. Depending on how much the scientists think the ice is thick.
Once the lander comes to rest, several long arms unfold and lock it into the ice. At this point the submersible starts drilling or melting it’s way through the ice with the cable in tow. Being a nuclear powered device, I think heating through would be the best option, you could also run a small conduit along with the fiber optic to keep that hot so the hole behind it doesn’t freeze up and lock the cable up.
When the submersible breaks into water, a small segment of it breaks off which is attached to the fiber optic cable. This peice has some arms that unflod and lock it into the bottom of the ice. This is your communication dock for the submersible to return to when it’s data archives are full. Basically, you have your submersible programmed to just run some patterns to cover some ground and then bring it back to dock after a certain time period. It will wait there untill the data it collected is transferred up to the surface hub and beamed back to earth. From there scientists can study the data and send new programming to the submersible depending on the data readouts. Depending on how much nuclear fuel is pumped into the sub and the surface hub, you could run this expirament for 10+ years exploring this moons ocean with todays technology.
It would cost no appreciable amount more than the two mars rover missions we sent.
V