fucking ridiculous. hughes has one way to win - bj gases. in every other facet besides offensive takedowns and cardio, bj dominates hughes and it isnt even close.[/quote]
I cannot disagree too much with that assessment. I will only add one thing; I think that Hughes stand-up has improved. With that said it was so ridiculously bad before that saying it improved probably doesn’t mean much.
As for takedowns the only reason Edgar was able to take Penn down multiple times is that he was doing well on his feet against Penn and Penn was not thinking takedown defense. Against Hughes that’s all penn will be thinking as Hughes is so one dimensional.
If Hughes stand-up game has continued to improve and he can actually do some damage on his feet and distract Penn he will then be able to take him down. Other than that the only way Hughes wins is, as you said, his conditioning and I will add his ability to perhaps hold Penn down because of Penns possibly fading skills.
[quote]XiaoNio wrote:
I never said Melendez, Alvarez, Aoki or Kawajiri could beat BJ Penn. But I did say they could be contenders for the title. It’s always been made out that BJ Penn was head and shoulders above the rest of the UFC lightweights. With the exception of Edgar thus far, that’s been true. But I do think the lightweights from Strikeforce, Dream and Bellator could fill that gap.
Anyway, I could see Matt Hughes beating BJ by separating a rib, taking the crucifix and landing some unanswered elbows. That’s certainly never happened before. If I were putting money down on this fight, I would probably still be leaning towards BJ. But I’m not going to be surprised if Matt Hughes grinds over BJ, then goes home to drive his John Deere.[/quote]
I never brought up Kawajiri
I never said you thought they could beat BJ
BJ looks to be in great shape, BJ RNC rd 2
lol, all things considered, i will admit that i put 50 on hughes to win, ive seen some of bjs camp…and im betting that hughes is motivated and doing the things a fighter should be doing when prepping for a fight. take that for what its worth, i dont want to hear any bitching if you guys put money on hughes and bj wins - we place our own bets
[quote]XiaoNio wrote:
As a whole I think people remember BJ as the the Prodigy of <2005. If you look at BJ over the last 5 years retrospectively, he’s lost the big ones to Edgar, GSP and Hughes (but his rib was broken!). He’s beaten Jens Pulver who went on to go 1-6, Stevenson who’s been ~.500 since, Sanchez who looked lack luster against Hathaway and pretty good against Thiago, a Sherk who refused to wrestle and KenFlo who looks a lot like Milhouse. Objectively, I know that BJ Penn is good. But I don’t really see the same Prodigy that tore through Caol Uno 8 years ago.
…[/quote]
Good analysis. Although Penn “cleaned out” the division in retrospect the guys he beat aren’t that impressive in todays game.
Of course the same can be said of Hughes.
I like the match up because I like interesting fights that don’t have impact on the title picture.
I think Hughes can win on size and strength if he plays it smart but if he tries to go beyond his talents Penn can finish him.
[/quote]
ridiculous. the mma ‘fan’ you guys have the attention span of a kid with ADD. retrospect as if those fighters were not the top contenders when bj fought them. you do realize that a lot of fighters fall off after getting title shots and failing to capitalize. the mental strain of climbing the ranks and then failing breaks a lot of guys who have been toiling for years for a title shot and then fail to win.
fucking ridiculous. hughes has one way to win - bj gases. in every other facet besides offensive takedowns and cardio, bj dominates hughes and it isnt even close.[/quote]
Ridiculous yourself. The game has evolved so much in the past 5 years it is amazing. getout out the past man. The UFC lightweight division has been very weak and XiaoNio’s humorous analysis is pretty good but obviously upsetting to BJ fanboys.
BJ always gasses.
BJ stand up has not looked great. Hughes is improved but not up to BJ. Edge BJ but not by enough unless Hughes gets stupid. (Which is possible).
BJ takedown defense not whatit one appeared to be.
Everyone else is catching up to BJ’s JJand we know Hughes can beat the JJ guys.
Unless Hughes makes a mistake all he has to do is weather the first round and turn it up in the 2nd and 3rd with takedowns and GNP for a decision.
stupid analysis. bj’s takedown defense is not what it once was? based on what exactly?
edgar’s ability to mix takedowns in with his striking while bj was getting frustrated by his movement?
bj’s stand up has not looked great? based on what exactly?
edgar’s ability to use ring movement, get in and out on bj for five rounds of continuous motion?
you guys are absolutely killing me. because edgar was able to execute the perfect gampeplan, while displaying ridiculous endurance and speed throughout, you think bj’s standup suddenly sucks?
bj always gases? based on what exactly? the fact that he gassed against st pierre?
fanboy? i fucking train you idiot, ive taken part in his camp and that’s why im betting on hughes.
you are the ultimate MMA fanboy where a fighter is only as good as his last fight and one fighter’s ability to stymie another’s offense automatically translates into the demise of that fighter for his next fight.
Hughes isnt going to be mirroring edgar in this fight, if anything, i think he could take a page out of GSP’s playbook and try to muscle bj to the cage for a bit in order to limit bjs offense standing. further, edgar used different setups for his takedowns that i dont think hughes could really emulate due to his lack of striking prowess. he beat renzo and almeida standing up…whoop dee fucking doo.
the game hasnt evolved that much in the past 5 years in terms of skillsets, the biggest adaptation ive seen has been the professional development of fighter’s strength and conditioning programs…but hey, what would i know, i dont live in south africa and train with their lineup of mma fighters
I predict that BJ man handles Hughes in this fight. It seems Frankie Edgar has BJ’s number, but prior to those two losses, BJ absolutely dominated two classy fighters in Sanchez & Florian. Sanchez was no pushover in that fight, and was coming off perhaps his personal best performance against Clay Guida.
People talk about BJ as being near the end of his career… he’s been around for a long time but he’s still only 31 y/o. Let’s not forget how early he started. When Hughes was BJ’s age, he had just won the welterweight belt by beating GSP.
[quote]slimjim wrote:
Hughes isnt going to be mirroring edgar in this fight, if anything, i think he could take a page out of GSP’s playbook and try to muscle bj to the cage for a bit in order to limit bjs offense standing.
[/quote]
Agreed. But then Hughes has never had GSP’s timing and I don’t know that he’ll be able to set Penn up for takedowns/clinches with his striking the way that GSP did (lots of broken rhythm, effective jabbing, hitting to the body first to set him up, controlling the distance).
If Hughes does take Penn down then, like you said, it’ll be probably after several attempts and the result of just plain wearing Penn out from constantly defending his takedowns, and maybe some body shots thrown in (if he can implement anything from GSP’s fight I think this is it). If he tries to stand and bang with him I think he’ll be in for a rough night.
[quote]slimjim wrote:
Hughes isnt going to be mirroring edgar in this fight, if anything, i think he could take a page out of GSP’s playbook and try to muscle bj to the cage for a bit in order to limit bjs offense standing. [/quote]
This is what I’ve been thinking. Nevermind the takedown (at first). How about just press BJ up against the cage for a couple rounds, dirty box, punish that midsection, make him fight Hughes’ fight, wear him out, enough that he can get the takedowns and GnP in round 3. Should play to Hughes’s strengths (the physical game) and limit BJ’s (striking and BJJ). And while Sento is right and Hughes doesn’t have the slick, technical stand up of GSP to set up his clinch, I still think this tactic represents his best shot.
[quote]slimjim wrote:
Hughes isnt going to be mirroring edgar in this fight, if anything, i think he could take a page out of GSP’s playbook and try to muscle bj to the cage for a bit in order to limit bjs offense standing. [/quote]
This is what I’ve been thinking. Nevermind the takedown (at first). How about just press BJ up against the cage for a couple rounds, dirty box, punish that midsection, make him fight Hughes’ fight, wear him out, enough that he can get the takedowns and GnP in round 3. Should play to Hughes’s strengths (the physical game) and limit BJ’s (striking and BJJ). And while Sento is right and Hughes doesn’t have the slick, technical stand up of GSP to set up his clinch, I still think this tactic represents his best shot.[/quote]
I also think hughes will attempt to push BJ to the cage, dirty box and work hard for takedowns. I think in round 1 those takedowns will be few with BJ able to use his flexibility to stave them off. Round 2-3 as BJ gets tired those takedowns will be easier. I don’t know if Hughes can finish BJ again but I see a UD IF he follows that game plan. If he attempts to mainly shoot in from afar without clinching first or using the cage I don’t think he takes BJ down and I see him getting peppered on the feet and losing.
Watched the weigh ins today and BJ didnt look out of shape but weighed in at 169 and said in an article that he is happy he didn’t have to weight cut because, â??I got to eat a lot." That’s an ominous sign for anyone hoping his cardio holds up…especially at 170.
Later in the artivle he also questions the need to lift weights if you’re a fighter, which in truth may not be super important for him but he should realize it is a big part of the game now and will be a big part of his opponents game. Look at the difference between K-Flo using GSP’s strategy and GSP using GSP’s strategy.
Another variable is his corner; I don’t know if it has changed much but man they don’t help.
On a positive note the weigh ins were packed and the crowd was really loud so I think the atmosphere should be great during the fights.
[quote]slimjim wrote:
hughes has one way to win - bj gases. in every other facet besides offensive takedowns and cardio, bj dominates hughes and it isnt even close.[/quote]
and
[quote]Sentoguy wrote:
[quote]slimjim wrote:
Hughes isnt going to be mirroring edgar in this fight, if anything, i think he could take a page out of GSP’s playbook and try to muscle bj to the cage for a bit in order to limit bjs offense standing.
[/quote]
Agreed. But then Hughes has never had GSP’s timing and I don’t know that he’ll be able to set Penn up for takedowns/clinches with his striking the way that GSP did (lots of broken rhythm, effective jabbing, hitting to the body first to set him up, controlling the distance).
If Hughes does take Penn down then, like you said, it’ll be probably after several attempts and the result of just plain wearing Penn out from constantly defending his takedowns, and maybe some body shots thrown in (if he can implement anything from GSP’s fight I think this is it). If he tries to stand and bang with him I think he’ll be in for a rough night. [/quote]
That sums it up pretty much.
I believe that the ball is largely in Hughes corner, he has to push successfully for a physical confrontation that nullifies finesse and emphasizes conditioning. But can he pull it off? That’s the big question.
BJ will do what he does.
I say Hughes takes it in the 3rd. Anything by cardiovascular domination. It will be close and exciting.
Let’s not forget that Penn tapped out Hughes in their first encounter. And that he almost did it again if it were not for the end of the round in their second fight. Hughes has shown his inability on the ground against Penn, unless Penn is fatigued.
[quote]ZEB wrote:
Let’s not forget that Penn tapped out Hughes in their first encounter. And that he almost did it again if it were not for the end of the round in their second fight. Hughes has shown his inability on the ground against Penn, unless Penn is fatigued.
Just food for thought.[/quote]
Hughes has supposedly continued to work on his grappling since that time though. Like Penn said in the countdown show “it’s extremely difficult to make Matt Hughes tap. He defended that triangle perfectly.” Hughes also admittedly didn’t train at all for the first fight (which he was notorious for doing up until that point) and completely underestimated Penn. Also, he rocked Hughes with a punch before taking his back and choking him out in their first fight.
I’m not saying that Penn couldn’t catch him again, just that I think the more times they fight (and therefore time that Hughes has to improve his submission/sub defense skills) the less likely it will be that Penn submits him.
I think this is quite lol worthy. Penn is on a tear, demolishing everyone in his path, people are saying that it will be years before he is ever touched and then he drops two lackluster decisions against Frankie and suddenly he is in the “twilight of his career” and will “probably never regain the title”. Ummm…?
I’m excited to read about this on play-by-play as I work for a bar that’s not showing the fights tonight. I am curious why Slim Jim decided to put 50 of his hard earned dollars on Hughes for this fight. You said something about seeing a bit of BJ’s camp? What looked bad about this?
My prediction is… A “prime, motivated” Penn wins this most of the time. But really, how often do we get to see a “prime, motivated” BJ Penn. I think as long as Hughes can make Penn carry his weight, he can wear him down and go for a classic Matt Hughes slam filled, ground and pound session.
Also, regarding guys being great and then suddenly falling off…
Chuck was on a 6 fight win streak until he lost to Rampage for a 2nd time. A lot of fighters do fairly well then have a precipitous drop in performance. Pulver, Jardine, Sokoudjou, Wanderlei, Crocop, etc.
I think it’s too early to tell with Penn, but it’s certainly not impossible.
[quote]ZEB wrote:
Let’s not forget that Penn tapped out Hughes in their first encounter. And that he almost did it again if it were not for the end of the round in their second fight. Hughes has shown his inability on the ground against Penn, unless Penn is fatigued.
Just food for thought.[/quote]
Hughes has supposedly continued to work on his grappling since that time though. Like Penn said in the countdown show “it’s extremely difficult to make Matt Hughes tap. He defended that triangle perfectly.” Hughes also admittedly didn’t train at all for the first fight (which he was notorious for doing up until that point) and completely underestimated Penn. Also, he rocked Hughes with a punch before taking his back and choking him out in their first fight.
I’m not saying that Penn couldn’t catch him again, just that I think the more times they fight (and therefore time that Hughes has to improve his submission/sub defense skills) the less likely it will be that Penn submits him.[/quote]
I agree all very good points. But, if I were Hughes I would try to grind Penn against the cage and wear him down before taking him down. A little Randy Couture methodology could go a long way.
[quote]XiaoNio wrote:
Also, regarding guys being great and then suddenly falling off…
Chuck was on a 6 fight win streak until he lost to Rampage for a 2nd time. A lot of fighters do fairly well then have a precipitous drop in performance. Pulver, Jardine, Sokoudjou, Wanderlei, Crocop, etc.
I think it’s too early to tell with Penn, but it’s certainly not impossible.[/quote]
when he said he liked fighting at welterweight cause he could eat whatever he wanted, he wasnt lying. he just cant be pushed by the guys here in hawaii like he was when his camp was in california, if he would bite the bullet and head up to AKA or jackson’s or coutures…or just anyone who would make him do the necessary roadwork and give him solid gameplans, it would go a long way to revatalizing his career (imo.) he still has the solid skillsets that make him such an enigma, but damn it would help if he had the right people around him…and im not sure if this is the same guy who was motivated to win the title back in the day. same attitude, willing to fight anyone anywhere whether or not he’s in shape, but i think he’s got other things on his plate that take his attention.