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Off Topic Politics & World Issues
161

[quote]orion wrote:
derek wrote:
orion wrote:
We`ll see about the US economy.

If you honestly think things are looking good regarding the US economy…

… I don?t think we share the same universe.

News > Economy

U.S. economic growth sizzles

Third-quarter growth of 7.2 percent is strongest in nearly two decades; will job growth follow?
October 30, 2003: 5:47 PM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer

“This is obviously an extraordinarily strong report, led by the consumer, but also with good signs about the state of the business sector and business confidence,” said Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus.

The burst of GDP growth was led by a 6.6 percent jump in consumer spending, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 1997. Consumer spending grew at a 3.8 percent pace in the second quarter.

Child tax credit checks and lower rates of income tax withholding helped fuel the third-quarter spending surge, enabling the Bush administration – which pushed for tax cuts earlier this year – to take a victory lap Thursday morning.

“The tax relief we passed is working. We left more money in the hands of the American people and the American people are moving this economy forward,” Bush said at a speech in Columbus, Ohio. He cautioned: “We cannot expect economic growth numbers like this every quarter.”

Sorry to break it to you, orion. You might want to start building that spaceship.

I am not talking about the private part of the US economy, there is no doubt that even less than perfect capitalism works.

I am more concerned with the enormous public debt and that this debt is financed by Asia, the declining $, the undervalued Yuan, the whole private debt situation in the US, especially mortgages…

The only real way I see of this is massive inflation of the $.

A monetary crisis would probably lead to the breakdown of this whole subsidy dependent economy, because capital would need to shift into real demand and not in government created ones (like the ultra newest fighter plane).

What happens if the US takes a hit?

All the world and especially China take a hit too…

All I see are bubbles, connected with bubbles, financed with invented money or promises to pay that will never be held…

This is seriously going to hurt. I give it about 10-15 years. Should our social systems collaps at the same time, which is likely during a depression things will tend to get interesting.[/quote]

In 10-15 years we will have probably gone through 2 or 3 recessions. It’s a natural cycle. Things go up and they go down. The market corrects itself in both directions.
The dot-bombs, build-to-flip, and just flat book-cooking are the real dangers to an economy. They make money appear out of thin air. Only it doesn’t come from nowhere. The reccesion at the turn of the millineum was scary for that reason.

P.S. if you edit in MS word or Outlook you have to replace the quotation marks, or they’ll show up as ‘?’ everytime.

162

[quote]pat36 wrote:
orion wrote:
derek wrote:
orion wrote:
We`ll see about the US economy.

If you honestly think things are looking good regarding the US economy…

… I don?t think we share the same universe.

News > Economy

U.S. economic growth sizzles

Third-quarter growth of 7.2 percent is strongest in nearly two decades; will job growth follow?
October 30, 2003: 5:47 PM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer

“This is obviously an extraordinarily strong report, led by the consumer, but also with good signs about the state of the business sector and business confidence,” said Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus.

The burst of GDP growth was led by a 6.6 percent jump in consumer spending, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 1997. Consumer spending grew at a 3.8 percent pace in the second quarter.

Child tax credit checks and lower rates of income tax withholding helped fuel the third-quarter spending surge, enabling the Bush administration – which pushed for tax cuts earlier this year – to take a victory lap Thursday morning.

“The tax relief we passed is working. We left more money in the hands of the American people and the American people are moving this economy forward,” Bush said at a speech in Columbus, Ohio. He cautioned: “We cannot expect economic growth numbers like this every quarter.”

Sorry to break it to you, orion. You might want to start building that spaceship.

I am not talking about the private part of the US economy, there is no doubt that even less than perfect capitalism works.

I am more concerned with the enormous public debt and that this debt is financed by Asia, the declining $, the undervalued Yuan, the whole private debt situation in the US, especially mortgages…

The only real way I see of this is massive inflation of the $.

A monetary crisis would probably lead to the breakdown of this whole subsidy dependent economy, because capital would need to shift into real demand and not in government created ones (like the ultra newest fighter plane).

What happens if the US takes a hit?

All the world and especially China take a hit too…

All I see are bubbles, connected with bubbles, financed with invented money or promises to pay that will never be held…

This is seriously going to hurt. I give it about 10-15 years. Should our social systems collaps at the same time, which is likely during a depression things will tend to get interesting.

In 10-15 years we will have probably gone through 2 or 3 recessions. It’s a natural cycle. Things go up and they go down. The market corrects itself in both directions.
The dot-bombs, build-to-flip, and just flat book-cooking are the real dangers to an economy. They make money appear out of thin air. Only it doesn’t come from nowhere. The reccesion at the turn of the millineum was scary for that reason.

P.S. if you edit in MS word or Outlook you have to replace the quotation marks, or they’ll show up as ‘?’ everytime.[/quote]

It is the German keyboard. We have a QWERTZ keyboard and all the special signs are not where they should be according to an American server.

I an not worried about normal recessions. They are, like, normal.

I am worrying about the tax rate in the US and public debt practically is taxation.

I am not saying Americans aren`t making any money, I am saying American politicians are spending it even faster.

People will eventually want their money back. How is that supposed to happen?

I`ll take any answer that does not include “Washington will finally show some fiscal responsibility…”…

163

Orion isn’t talking about cyclical variations; he’s talking about the fundamental structural weaknesses in our economy that have resulted from years of fiscal indiscipline and a Pollyanna like outlook. The economy does and will correct imbalances. That doesn’t mean the correction or the new equilibrium will be so nice.

Remember the late 90’s? The writing was on the wall yet everyone kept talking about the “New Economy” and how the old rules didn’t apply right up until the end. Well the same rules of economics did still apply and they do now. The problems faced now aren’t insoluble but that doesn’t mean they will be solved. Short sightedness and collective action problems will make solutions difficult as always.

[edit] oops, I guess Orion is online to answer for himself.

164

[quote]orion wrote:
People will eventually want their money back. How is that supposed to happen?

I`ll take any answer that does not include “Washington will finally show some fiscal responsibility…”…[/quote]

Bush certainly tries to give our money back. Our current economy proves this out.

I don’t always agree with Bush but I’m all for his tax cuts.

The President’s Agenda for Tax Relief

 "These are the basic ideas that guide my tax policy: lower income taxes for all, with the greatest help for those most in need. Everyone who pays income taxes benefits ? while the highest percentage tax cuts go to the lowest income Americans. I believe this is a formula for continuing the prosperity we've enjoyed, but also expanding it in ways we have yet to discover. It is an economics of inclusion. It is the agenda of a government that knows its limits and shows its heart."

? President George W. Bush

Executive Summary

The President has proposed a bold and fair tax relief plan that will reduce the inequities of the current tax code and help ensure that America remains prosperous. This tax relief plan promotes the values that make the American economy second to none – access to the middle class, family, equal opportunity, and the entrepreneurial spirit. This plan will reduce taxes for everyone who pays income taxes, and it will encourage enterprise by lowering marginal tax rates.

Under the President?s tax relief plan, the typical American family of four will be able to keep at least $1,600 more of their own money.

165

[quote]etaco wrote:
Orion isn’t talking about cyclical variations; he’s talking about the fundamental structural weaknesses in our economy that have resulted from years of fiscal indiscipline and a Pollyanna like outlook. The economy does and will correct imbalances. That doesn’t mean the correction or the new equilibrium will be so nice.

Remember the late 90’s? The writing was on the wall yet everyone kept talking about the “New Economy” and how the old rules didn’t apply right up until the end. Well the same rules of economics did still apply and they do now. The problems faced now aren’t insoluble but that doesn’t mean they will be solved. Short sightedness and collective action problems will make solutions difficult as always.

[edit] oops, I guess Orion is online to answer for himself.[/quote]

Orion also frequently answers for other people, so he can hardly blame you…

166

[quote]derek wrote:
orion wrote:
People will eventually want their money back. How is that supposed to happen?

I`ll take any answer that does not include “Washington will finally show some fiscal responsibility…”…

Bush certainly tries to give our money back. Our current economy proves this out.

I don’t always agree with Bush but I’m all for his tax cuts.
[/quote]

But a tax cut accompanied by a deficit increase is a lie paid for by your children.

167

[quote]orion wrote:
But a tax cut accompanied by a deficit increase is a lie paid for by your children.[/quote]

But tax cuts increase revenue EVERY time they’re instituted.

168

[quote]derek wrote:
orion wrote:
But a tax cut accompanied by a deficit increase is a lie paid for by your children.

But tax cuts increase revenue EVERY time they’re instituted.
[/quote]

With revenue you mean people pay more in absolute taxes when they pay less in relative taxes?

169

[quote]orion wrote:
With revenue you mean people pay more in absolute taxes when they pay less in relative taxes?

[/quote]

I mean when people are able to keep more of thier income, they are more willing to yes, spend that money which creates more revenue via existing taxation.

They are willing to purchase items that they had not been willing to purchase before.

However, a lower tax rate also spurs investment and job creation. Unemployment rates decline, etc., etc.

No economy has taxed it’s way into the black. Not ever.

170

May 22, 2001
Lowering Marginal Tax Rates: The Key to Pro-Growth Tax Relief
by Daniel J. Mitchell, Ph.D.
Backgrounder #1443

“Lowering marginal tax rates is the fairest way to reduce today’s record tax burden–the highest since World War II. Rate reductions are desirable not only because all taxpayers would get to keep more of their money, but also because lower rates would increase the incentive to work, save, invest, and take risks.”

Or maybe you think differently than every well known economic analyst?

171

All you Euro-dudes out there, what do you pay in taxes? We here in America complain about paying 15% annually and 5-6% on sales tax. What are you guys paying?

172

[quote]PGJ wrote:
All you Euro-dudes out there, what do you pay in taxes? We here in America complain about paying 15% annually and 5-6% on sales tax. What are you guys paying?[/quote]

Austria:

Tax rates

The tax rates in this country increase in progressive steps up to 50% for income exceeding ?50,870.

In Euros (?)
Tax rate
Up to 3,640 0%
3,641 - 7,270 21%
7,271 - 21,800 31%
21,801 - 50,870 41%
Income over 50,870 50%

*question marks were the Euro sign.

173

[quote]orion wrote:
With revenue you mean people pay more in absolute taxes when they pay less in relative taxes?
[/quote]

By the way, taxation is NOT voluntary just ask the IRS. However discretional spending (and the tax on that spending) is always voluntary. You don’t want to pay taxes on that boat, car, wheelbarrow? Don’t buy it. Easy.

That’s why it is always better to allow the populace to spend as much of thier own money as possible. That’s fair. That’s how revenue is increased.

Higher taxes equals less spending therefore less revenue. Lower taxes equals more spending therefore more revenue (through sales tax, luxury tax etc.

A very simple if imperfect system.

174

[quote]PGJ wrote:

It’s staggering that people actually believe Saddam had no WMD’s. It’s like 20 people watching someone kill someone else with a gun (a gun registered in his name), but then not being able to find the gun. I GUARANTEE that if we did nothing, we would have been hit again even harder. Then all these pansy-assed haters would be screaming “Why didn’t the president do anything”.

[/quote]

Alright, I’ll fall for it. Where exactly is the documentation on these WMDs? From my own feeble understanding the threats of WMD were established after several UNPRECEDENTED visits by a Vice President and staff to Langley to actually pressure the analysts writing the threat analysis for Iraq, FACE TO FACE…
No real link between the government of Iraq and Osama existed…

We hit the Taliban in Afghanistan but the Chickenhawks really wanted those oil dollars, so…I didn’t see any evidence then, I don’t see it now.

Was it a dictatorship? Sure. Did they hate us? Well the people would have been our side if we had backed one of the SEVERAL coup attempts after the first Gulf War. Instead the U.S. continously strung the resistance along and then abandoned them at the firing line to be killed off by Saddam.
See Robert Baer’s SEE NO EVIL and other books by CIA ops for details.

Oh and here is a report on the misperceptions of the American public in regards to the war and how these affect our support of it:

http://65.109.167.118/pipa/pdf/oct03/IraqMedia_Oct03_rpt.pdf

the key findings are:

Misperceptions are widely-held. To quote a few numbers, 48% believe the US has found clear evidence that Saddam was working with al Qaeda, 22% believe Iraq was directly involved in carrying out the September 11th attacks, 22% believe the US has found Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, 20% think Iraq actually used chemical or biological weapons in the war that just ended, and 25% believe the majority of world opinion is in favor of the US having gone to war.
Misperceptions are strongly correlated with support for the war. Both pre- and post-war, support for the war is much higher among those who are wrong about the facts. For example, 86% of those who incorrectly answered all three questions listed above were in favor of the war, compared to 23% of those who had no misperceptions. Of course, we can’t know for certain whether people are basing their support for the war on incorrect information, or if they are instead making up their minds and then choosing to believe rumors and insinuations that support their already-formed opinions. However, this is still a good indication that these misperceptions had a real effect on public support for the war.
Misperceptions correlate strongly with media source. People who watch Fox News as their primary news source were much more likely to be incorrect on the questions of links to al Qaeda, WMD and world opinion than those who watched any other source. People who got their primary news from television were more likely to have misperceptions than people who got their news from print media, and NPR/PBS viewers were the best informed on these subjects.

We are there. We are fighting and we need to “win.” But,let’s not continue to delude ourselves about why we are there.

175

Case Closed
From the November 24, 2003 issue: The U.S. government’s secret memo detailing cooperation between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden.
by Stephen F. Hayes
11/24/2003, Volume 009, Issue 11

OSAMA BIN LADEN and Saddam Hussein had an operational relationship from the early 1990s to 2003 that involved training in explosives and weapons of mass destruction, logistical support for terrorist attacks, al Qaeda training camps and safe haven in Iraq, and Iraqi financial support for al Qaeda–perhaps even for Mohamed Atta–according to a top secret U.S. government memorandum

According to the memo–which lays out the intelligence in 50 numbered points–Iraq-al Qaeda contacts began in 1990 and continued through mid-March 2003, days before the Iraq War began. Most of the numbered passages contain straight, fact-based intelligence reporting, which some cases includes an evaluation of the credibility of the source. This reporting is often followed by commentary and analysis.

The relationship began shortly before the first Gulf War. According to reporting in the memo, bin Laden sent “emissaries to Jordan in 1990 to meet with Iraqi government officials.” At some unspecified point in 1991, according to a CIA analysis, “Iraq sought Sudan’s assistance to establish links to al Qaeda.” The outreach went in both directions. According to 1993 CIA reporting cited in the memo, “bin Laden wanted to expand his organization’s capabilities through ties with Iraq.”

The primary go-between throughout these early stages was Sudanese strongman Hassan al-Turabi, a leader of the al Qaeda-affiliated National Islamic Front. Numerous sources have confirmed this. One defector reported that “al-Turabi was instrumental in arranging the Iraqi-al Qaeda relationship. The defector said Iraq sought al Qaeda influence through its connections with Afghanistan, to facilitate the transshipment of proscribed weapons and equipment to Iraq. In return, Iraq provided al Qaeda with training and instructors.”

One such confirmation came in a postwar interview with one of Saddam Hussein’s henchmen. As the memo details:

  1. According to a May 2003 debriefing of a senior Iraqi intelligence officer, Iraqi intelligence established a highly secretive relationship with Egyptian Islamic Jihad, and later with al Qaeda. The first meeting in 1992 between the Iraqi Intelligence Service (IIS) and al Qaeda was brokered by al-Turabi. Former IIS deputy director Faruq Hijazi and senior al Qaeda leader [Ayman al] Zawahiri were at the meeting–the first of several between 1992 and 1995 in Sudan. Additional meetings between Iraqi intelligence and al Qaeda were held in Pakistan.

Members of al Qaeda would sometimes visit Baghdad where they would meet the Iraqi intelligence chief in a safe house. The report claimed that Saddam insisted the relationship with al Qaeda be kept secret. After 9-11, the source said Saddam made a personnel change in the IIS for fear the relationship would come under scrutiny from foreign probes.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm…

176

[quote]Grimnuruk wrote:
[/quote]

Grim,

Please take a peek at the saddam tapes.

Add to that the known 500 munitions found interspersed within convential arms.

saddam was lying and in league with our most hated enemies.

This guy had to go. Further, he had to be made an example of. See deterrance and libya.

I’ve written extensively on this subject and looking up my past posts can flush this out if you care to look up my name.

You seem like a pretty open-minded guy, so I will give you the courtesy of discussion.

Now, if your name was bradley/pox/tme/jlesk…

THEY HAVE CEREBRAL ARREST!!!

JeffR

177

[quote]derek wrote:
PGJ wrote:
All you Euro-dudes out there, what do you pay in taxes? We here in America complain about paying 15% annually and 5-6% on sales tax. What are you guys paying?

Austria:

Tax rates

The tax rates in this country increase in progressive steps up to 50% for income exceeding ?50,870.

In Euros (?)
Tax rate
Up to 3,640 0%
3,641 - 7,270 21%
7,271 - 21,800 31%
21,801 - 50,870 41%
Income over 50,870 50%

*question marks were the Euro sign.

[/quote]

You have forgotten the VAT of 20%, social security like health care, pensions, unemployment insurance, mineral oil tax and NoVa, a tax that penalizes buying big cars yet again, as if the tax on gasoline was not enough.

If we also add inflation, pubic debt and various small taxes like taxes on land, gifts and inherited wealth we are close to 70/80% for the average employ?.

Most Austrians and Germans do not even get this because they are a) gullible idiots and b) grew up in socialism.

178

[quote]derek wrote:
orion wrote:
With revenue you mean people pay more in absolute taxes when they pay less in relative taxes?

By the way, taxation is NOT voluntary just ask the IRS. However discretional spending (and the tax on that spending) is always voluntary. You don’t want to pay taxes on that boat, car, wheelbarrow? Don’t buy it. Easy.

That’s why it is always better to allow the populace to spend as much of thier own money as possible. That’s fair. That’s how revenue is increased.

Higher taxes equals less spending therefore less revenue. Lower taxes equals more spending therefore more revenue (through sales tax, luxury tax etc.

A very simple if imperfect system.

[/quote]

I still do not get why lowering taxes while increasing the deficit is a good idea.

There should be a point were increased tax revenue offsets the increased interest payed on that public debt but I do not think that this was the idea behind all of this, it was more like not letting the average American feel what this war actually costs.

179

[quote]derek wrote:
May 22, 2001
Lowering Marginal Tax Rates: The Key to Pro-Growth Tax Relief
by Daniel J. Mitchell, Ph.D.
Backgrounder #1443

“Lowering marginal tax rates is the fairest way to reduce today’s record tax burden–the highest since World War II. Rate reductions are desirable not only because all taxpayers would get to keep more of their money, but also because lower rates would increase the incentive to work, save, invest, and take risks.”

Or maybe you think differently than every well known economic analyst?

[/quote]

I do not disagree with that.

I do disagree though that financing this via public debt is the way to go, because ultimately the average citizen will pay the bill.

180

[quote]orion wrote:
It is the German keyboard. We have a QWERTZ keyboard and all the special signs are not where they should be according to an American server.

I an not worried about normal recessions. They are, like, normal.

I am worrying about the tax rate in the US and public debt practically is taxation.

I am not saying Americans aren`t making any money, I am saying American politicians are spending it even faster.

People will eventually want their money back. How is that supposed to happen?

I`ll take any answer that does not include “Washington will finally show some fiscal responsibility…”…[/quote]

The government and fiscal responsibility are oxymorons. You get people drunk on power and let them have access to money (a lot of money) that is not theirs you get all kinds of spending. In a country as large as ours it is real easy to slide pet projects in to budgets. There are people here whose exclusive jobs are to find loop holes in order to fit the projects in. My opinion on politicians is that they are idiots who talk a good game. Morality or responsibility need not apply. I have lowered my expectations and I am a happy camper.