Tom absolutely demolished everyone in the first two events and now has a 7 point lead. Brain and Luke tied for second. Sometimes I forget how good Luke is competing with Tom every day.
Luke’s got to build a good lead as the dead lift will cost him. But he can compete for top 3 in every other event. And top place for log. After this start legit podium place chance for Luke.
And Tom. Well, can you see where Brian or Luke can make up 7 points?
I can’t. One of them would have to come 2 places above Tom in a every event left. But I can see Tom winning 2 of those (Keg toss and Stones). And he’ll be top 4/5 for log.
And as for 4/5th it even further out of the question.
I’m not saying Tom’s won it, but its a command lead.
Tom brain and Luke would be like my ideal podium. I’d love Tom or Brian to win. I would like Brian to win his fifth and get some redemption for his drive for five so he can retire in peace. And Tom with Asperger’s winning would mean a lot to me.
I don’t know. 28.5 to 23.
Brian has 3 events left and has to earn 5.5 pts.
Assuming Tom comes second in the stones (a log shot) that means Shaw has to make up 4.5pts in 2 events. The only saving grace for Brian is the next two events are ones were lots of people can draw and drag down a position. Like Luke in the keg toss. He got the 4th highest height but only got 4pts.
If Tom puts in a fair performance on the dead lift / log but get caught in the middle of the pack then he could loss lots of ground.
The thing is - Tom / Brian are quiet well matched in both of these. In fact Tom might have Brian pipped on the log and they will both be top 3 in those I would image.
I think Tom will keep his lead.
I think you hit it on the head. Shaw has to do well (win the events) and hope that there are people between him and Tom. But looking at the events and the athletes that is still possible.
He needs Tom to stumble which there is more than an outside chance of. If you’ll remember Tom won half (3) the final events last year and still lost because of mental issues. That said, Tom seems to have figured out the mental thing.
I knew Brian would win the toss but Tom looks locked in. It’s going to take a miracle for Brian to over take his spot. Especially with stones and log left. This seems like a killer WSM. Can’t wait to be able to watch it.
Tom lost because he stumbled on the loading and his grip was poor. You’re right he won 3 events. But he came 5th, 5th and 9th on the rest.
Looking at events left can you see Tom coming 5th in any of them?
Last year he won the log ladder; he drew 1st place on the group deadlift this year. Also he is king of the stones.
I mean assuming Brian wins log & deadlift - which I doubt; Tom needs to pick up 6pts fewer for it to come down to who wins the stones. Which will be Tom. So Brian needs a 7pt swing over 2 events.
I’m not saying it can’t happen only that if I were a betting man - I’d want odds of 100:1 at least.
I will agree Tom’s head space is better.
I also think there is more of a chance of Shaw dropping pts compared to 3rd/4th/5th than Tom letting Shaw back in.
If Shaw gets dragged into a large scale draw for reps or weight on the next two events he could lose ground to someone who does marginally better.
Just wanted to say that the spreadsheet is not his, it’s done by one of the mods of the strongman subreddit (also the co-creator of the strongman archives), he’s done these for pretty much every major contest for what must be years now.