When Does a "Fake" Pandemic Become "Real"?

Actually I have a friend in the US who has pretty much done this (not heroin, but meth, crack, cocaine etc). That being said, he is literally the poster child for addictive personality.

I try my best not to judge, but as a result of his behaviour we aren’t nearly as close as we used to be.

He’s had a really difficult life, when he got into harder stuff I always thought of it as him using psychoactive chemicals as a means to escape reality.

If you think there’s anything I could do to help I’m all ears.

That is exactly how it works. He didn’t just wake up one day and go, “Oh, it’s Tuesday and I missed the bus. Better get some meth and wreck my life”. He was already having a hard time and using other things. Then it escalates.

On this:

That’s always a tough call. Other than to be there when he asks for help (not money), and make it known that you haven’t abandoned, but care from a distance, there isn’t much you can do once someone is in active addiction.

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Agreed, it was just very abrupt. He had one terrible event occur on top of as you called it “a life of shit sandwiches” and suddenly graduated from using “soft” substances (albeit waaaaayyyyy too often) to hard substances.

He was a good kid and didn’t deserve much of what life dealt out to him.

A lot of addicts or people with a proclivity to use have that “fuck it” moment or event where their life pivots downward.

Most are. The vast majority of people I know in recovery are awesome, and through various means have incurred tremendous emotional injury. They didn’t intend to become what they were, they just didn’t want to hurt anymore.

So what’s your point? More people who weren’t doing too good to start with are giving up on life, is that not a problem?

Did you see the article about how in BC way more people are dying from overdoses than COVID? If the goal is to save lives then maybe that deserves more attention than the virus.

These assholes who contradict themselves every few weeks:

The US is a different situation than anywhere else at the moment so certain things regarding Canada or elsewhere don’t necessarily apply. I think if there is a state or region where the healthcare system is totally overwhelmed with COVID patient then yeah, it might be a good idea to put certain measures in place to slow that down. But where that is not the case I would say there is a strong argument for the Swedish approach because the virus isn’t about to disappear and prolonging the epidemic and restrictions is probably not worth it. US GDP went down by 32.9% last quarter, while the virus is bad for business, prolonged shutdowns are worse.

It’s hard to say what is a lockdown or shutdown and what isn’t, few places have gone to the same extreme as Australia, India, or South Africa. What they did in those countries was absolutely ridiculous.

Hey, even Sweden is in much better shape at this point. The US is pretty much the worst-case scenario in economic terms.

So what do you think should be done in the US then? I think the good old curve flattening strategy is a good way to go, but once healthcare is not about to be overwhelmed and the virus is still spreading there isn’t really a better solution than letting it take its course when you consider the implications of the alternatives. Sometimes you just have to bite the bullet, there is no other way.

Problem with a pandemic is the concept of exponential growth. Things look fine now, next month… chaos, at that point the death toll rises exponentially. Need I point to America as an example of inadequate response? In the USA there were 69,029 overdose deaths between 2018-2019, there’s currently been 156k covid-19 induced deaths within a timeframe spanning over less than 1 yr (in the USA).

The cumulative mortality rate with covid-19 appears closer to 1% with covid, so conservatively we can say 6-10x deadlier than the seasonal flu (0.1%). Furthermore, ALIVE doesn’t refer to alive and well. Many recovering/who have recovered from covid are afflicted with permanent cardiorespiratory damage and weird, unexplained neurological symptomatology.

The USA may be a different story (a horror story), but it’s an example of what can and will happen if we don’t take precautions. This is a highly infectious virus with the potential to spin totally out of control if we slip up. Wear a mask and abide by regulations passed by healthcare professionals. I guarantee you they know a hell of a lot more about epidemiology, statistical analysis and potential prognosis than you or I do. Ramifications are taken into consideration when imposing restrictions, the federal government isn’t stupid enough to impose restrictions for no reason at all.

It’s not just about current numbers, it’s about the potential for worst case scenarios. Call me an asshole but I don’t want people afflicted with a disease that may induce long term, permanent damage. Covid-19 appears to induce hypogonadism, it appears to induce cardiac damage/increase blood markers indicative of cardiac damage even in those only mildly symptomatic. We aren’t aware of full extent of these ramifications. What if (similarly to the mumps) covid-19 induced hypogonadism is permanent etc?

I should ask you the same. You tagged me for the subject we’re discussing. I’m just sharing my insights gained from about 2 decades of recovery and working to help other addicts and alcoholics succeed in recovery.

I did, and fair point, but that seems to be a separate condition. People aren’t in quarantine to avoid catching a bad case of substance abuse, are they?

Yeah but that is not what happened here, over 80% of deaths were in nursing homes despite most infections not being nursing home residents. There is a certain demographic who are at high risk and that is who needs to be isolated and protected, not the whole planet.

How many this year?

It’s not. WHO says 0.6%.

Neither are those who survive ODs and suicide attempts.

What about shutdowns, lockdowns, and restrictions that induce long term, permanent damage?

One that is getting worse as a result of shutdowns and restrictions.

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I’d argue otherwise about OD’s for the majority of cases. The most common overdose prevalent within society is alcohol poisoning. Just about all of us at some point or another have been afflicted by alcohol poisoning. Overdoses within relation to stimulant drugs can cause permanent cardiac damage, opiate overdose could theoretically result in brain damage if pronounced respiratory depression was present for a while prior to narcan administration (hypoxia = brain damage). Aside from rare instances, damage induced via drug overdose is generally reversible if the patient presents to the hospital quickly enough. That being said I’m not an expert on drug overdoses, I’d be willing to wager over statistics though. I’d argue more people over the next few years will be permenantly afflicted by cover-19 as opposed to drug overdoses. @SkyzykS do drug OD’s typically lead to long term disability? By drug overdose I’m referring to paralytic drunkeness or throwing up, taking an amount of downers causing one to “nod off”, enough stimulants to induce arrhythmia/psychosis or enough psychedelics to induce acute psychosis/mania. Drug OD’s don’t necessarily lead to death, I think “overdoses” are far more common than most believe.

Drug use within itself can lead to permeant neurological alteration, but generally speaking the human body is rather remarkable. A healthy male/female can generally bounce back after prolonged bouts of abuse. The majority of the adult population is afflicted some level of ethanol induced neurodegeneration.

Furthermore, I’d like to argue the magnitude of covid-19 related deaths in the USA alone this year is more than overdose + suicide deaths combined from 2018-early 2019. Suicide attempts can lead to permeant scarring (lacerations), brain/organ damage from gunshot wounds and resulting permanent disability and organ damage/failure due to say… paracetamol overdose.

Suicide/depression is no joke. We definitely need more resources poured into mental health services. But Covid-19 is a more polarising issue at this point. If covid-19 induces permenant hypogonadism, what will the effect be on fertility rates? There are too many unknown variables here thus we need to “eer” on the side of caution here. I’m going to keep my opinion on this issue rather conservative in nature. I’m going to listen to the doctors because I probably don’t know better than someone who has gone through MEDICAL SCHOOL

Tell me how lockdown could’ve killed 700K people THIS YEAR ALONE… or led to equatable damages. I’m all ears if you’ve got a legitimate answer. I get the anti-lockdown sentiment, and I’m fed up too… but if we want to get out the other side in one piece we need to abide by the guidelines medical professionals have set for us.

We have five vaccines currently undergoing phase III clinical trials. If these trials are successful it’ll only be a number of months before we have a vaccine (how potent/long lasting vaccine induced immune response will be is still open to interpretation). As annoying as this is, it’s for the greater good. I can’t forsee a scenario wherein lockdown would kill just as many people compared to had we not locked down at all.

What would our economic situation (and outlook) be if we had aggressively attacked this from the start though? We played minor lockdown at best for an incredibly short period of time and had many citizens not even do that. A shutdown that let things go back to normal quicker imo would be a helluva a lot better than what we have done.

We were never in anything like a full shutdown for a significant period of time anyways so to say that quarters GDP is due to shutdown and not the virus is hard for me to agree with. And now where are we? It’s not like we’re in a good spot now. We didn’t act (because the economy) then acted for a short time only (because the economy) and now can’t really change course (because the economy I guess). So we’re pretty much stuck with this thing just spreading like crazy and killing us until a vaccine comes. That isn’t the case everywhere else. They are simply making sure they don’t become us.

I’d like for our citizens to social distance and mask on their own but we won’t do that because we are fucking idiots. We’ve fucked this up every step up the way. When the Vice President doesn’t wear a mask in a pandemic in the fucking Mayo Clinic because his boss was against it how could we expect his followers to not go full psycho and just say fuck it we don’t believe any doctors.

I dunno man. The way you described it is pretty much the goal of drug abuse in my opinion. :joy:

As for long term disability, I also can’t say. That goes more into the realm of navigating bureaucracy and manipulating a system than drug use/abuse, which is entirely mysterious to me, but some people are very good at. :man_shrugging:

You know what is “unreal” @unreal24278?

You have truly brought some reasoning and clarity to this overall discussion!

Thanks!

Is it at all possible for us to consider listening to another doctor besides Doom-and-Gloom Fauci? I mean holy shit, the man flip flops every other day (yeah yeah, the first response I’m going to get is something along the lines of “The science changes rapidly bro!”…fucking spare me). He cannot stand by any one thing that comes out of his mouth. All verbal diarrhea. Cautiously optimistic about a vaccine by end of year or early 2021…may live with virus forever (really? you don’t say! it’s a fucking virus!)…big second wave coming…no wait, second wave may not be so bad…lockdown fully…no need to lock down fully. SHUT THE FUCK UP GRANDPA.

I’m sure there are other infectious disease and epidemiologist doctors out there, not so senile, that could direct us…yet we just zone in on this fucktard and follow him lockstep.

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Someone is projecting.

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What “freedom” crowd doesn’t get when it comes to the economy is that you cannot ignore the virus. If Covid-19 - in a best case scenario - leaves you bed ridden for one to three weeks, and in a worse (but not the worst) scenario requires you to spend a week in a hospital, the majority of people will change their behavior patterns.

Is having dinner with some friends at a restaurant worth it? And that’s a simple mental calculation that doesn’t involve long term effects. Personally, I’m concerned about heart tissue damage in Covid-19 patients.

For example, Ojo died from a heart attack on his first training session after having tested negative - he was suffering from Covid-19 for a month with mild symptoms and only recently recovered.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/more-sports/former-florida-state-center-michael-ojo-passes-away/ar-BB17GKU0

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You know who has a more in depth, clear headed opinion of covid-19. The man who told us to inject disinfectant.

Fauci isn’t senile. He’s done a great job considering the current federal government in power and he has a highly respectable list of lifetime accomplishments. He’s developed numerous therapies for at the time lethal ailments (PAN etc), he was a respected researcher during the AIDS epidemic of the 1980’s and was a huge proponent for increased screening back when Ebola was all the rage. He knows more about medicine that you or I combined, then multiply that ten fold… then by a hundred.

Another issue is the sheer number of inpatients showing up to hospital. If ICU beds are full, they will have to start selectively letting in patients (i.e no more patients over 60 etc). Soon Joe can’t be admitted even though he’s having a massive stroke. Hospitals can get overwhelmed by the seasonal flu, covid tends to make a larger demographic seriously ill (requiring hospitalisations).

With hospitals closed off, not only do death rates from covid go up, ALL cause death rates end up increasing.

Yes, I will have dinner with friends and family at a restaurant. I refuse to live in fear of all this nonsense. Others, if they are terrified, can remain at home. It’s such an easy concept, yet hard for others to grasp: if you’re scared, stay the fuck home.

And… THIS is why American’s won’t be able to travel for quite some time…

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Oh look! Another “model” was just released predicting the U.S. death toll to hit 300K by December. Wonder how this big, steaming pile of bullshit will pan out.

statistical analysis, just like weather modelling becomes less accurate the further out we get. It’s like looking at the GFS 240 hours out and saying “hey look, it’s snowing where I live”… You can get a rough chart of where certain storm systems MIGHT Be situated, but it’s amenable to changing drastically.

You guys shouldn’t’ve hit 100K on the death toll, let alone 300K. The response within the USA is probably going to pan out being on par/worse than the shittiest of third world countries. But that’s fine because FrEeDoM right?

Civil liberties should only extend to rights that have an impact toward the individual excising his/her rights and no further. (I.E the right to smoke a cigarette, but not to hotbox a room filled with kids). Refusing to wear a mask or going out and participating within high risk activities affects more than the individual participating. I don’t want to have to stay home, but if there’s a risk I’m exposed, that I end up exposing my parents/grandmother… I’m staying home…

People want to be going out without significant risk, people like you make this impossible.

@everybodygetsone

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