We’re 3 weeks away from this fight going down. I’ve been looking forward to it since BJ won the Lightweight title back in Jan.
How do you all think the fight is going to play out?
I really want BJ to win, but I have visions of Sherk weathering a Penn storm for 2 rounds, then laying-and-praying his way to a 48-47 decision. I don’t see Sherk being able to stop Penn, but I’m not entirely sure Penn will be able to submit Sherk, who’s strong as hell.
BJ’s cardio is always a question but I think he’ll come into this fight in great shape. He has great takedown defense and if he can keep the fight standing, or at least punish Sherk a bit before getting taken down, then I think eventually BJ will catch him; either by KO or submission.
Basically what I’m saying is I see this fight going either way. I’ll go with what I want to see and say that BJ wins by a 3rd round TKO.
As for the 2 other big fights:
Wanderlei Silva vs. Keith Jardine
This is do-or-die territory for Wand. He needs to win to stay credible in the division. A loss would be his 4th straight and would knock him well down the list of contenders. Jardine is coming off a big win over Liddell, but hasn’t fought in a while. Jardine likes to engage, which always makes for an exciting fight. We’re unsure of how good his ground skills are, though, and that’s where Wand has a slight edge. This will be an all-out brawl and should be great to watch.
Prediction: Silva by KO.
Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida
Everyone seems to like Machida in this one. I can see why. Guy has an unorthodox style for MMA, but he gets his opponents to fight his kind of fight, and ultimately wins every time. Tito’s future is up in the air. Will it be his last fight in the UFC? I think we’ll see a very-motivated Tito Ortiz in this fight. He’d like nothing better than to beat Machida, then stick it to Dana White and co. and bolt the company - or do what he did last time and hold out for 6 months until they pay him what he wants. We all know Tito’s gameplan…takedown and ground-and-pound.
I agree with you that Penn/Sherk is pretty much too close to call. I’m pretty sure most of the fight is going to be spent on the ground, regardless of who takes it there. Sherk is probably much physically stronger, but BJ is SO freaking nimble and his BJJ is SO good . . . I don’t know. I think either Sherk is strong enough to power out of BJ’s submission attempts and is able to lay 'n pray through the 5 rounds to a decision, OR BJ weathers Sherk’s wrestling long enough to eventually catch him in a rear-naked choke. (I don’t see him getting an armbar on Sean – Sean’s too strong).
If I were a betting man I’d put money on the former (Sherk by decision), but I ain’t that brave.
I think everyone who’s calling Wandy “washed up” or “passed his prime” or “overrated” is going to be in for a rude awakening. It might be a good fight for a round or two, but I think in the end that Wandy is going to give Jardine a violent stomping, like the Wandy of old. If Houston Alexander could wobble Jardine and then hit him with some knees in the clinch, Wandy can do the same times 10. And he’s better than Jardine on the ground.
People say he’s lost 3 in a row, yada yada, but the first one was to a heavyweight (CroCop at his peak) and he was deathly ill during the loss to Henderson. His 3rd loss was a veeery competitive decision loss, after A YEAR OFF from fighting, to Chuck Fucking Liddell. And it was his first fight back in the cage in several years. He looked a little more tentative than usual but still gave Chuck a good smacking during the fight, and I think now that he’s shaken the ring rust off, especially since he’s training full-time with Couture now, he’s gonna’ be right back to that killer-instinct-Wand and he’s gonna’ put on a show.
Wanderlei by KO in round 2.
(I haven’t seen enough of Machida’s fights to really comment on that one).
Regarding Sherks strength over BJ. BJ’s a guy who’s NEVER been afraid to fight up a weight class or two. Yes, he lost to both hughes and gsp, but bj took gsp out behind the woodshed for the first round before laying off the 2 & 3. If they scored pride rules, the whole fight rather than the round system, bj probably woulda won there.
And BJ was giving hughes a thrashing (if i remember correctly, but at the very least he was definitely winning) until bj gassed/got injured, whichever you choose to believe. So for a guy who went toe to toe with hughes, do we really think that he’s going to be THAT overwhelmed in the strength dept?
Penn/Sherk: I’d love to see a knockout from sherk so he can redeem himself post-AAS accusations, he has an amazing striking coach in greg nelson but you never see it out of him unfortunately.
imo, penn by KO or submission, I don’t think this goes all the way.
machida/ortiz: i’d like tito to win, and if he does its by lay and pray but imo machida can and probably will win this by knockout.
Silva/Jardine: frankly silva has been focusing on his boxing and let his muay thai slide. No offense to xtreme couture, but he’s been training with them and from his last fight his style has seemed more reserved less “chute boxe”. if he wins its because he returned to the Wanderlei we’re used to seeing. If not jardine is no slouch and he’s in for a rough night.
I thought Wandy said right after his fight with Chuck that he was going to spend some time training with Ernesto Hoost to brush up on his Muay Thai. Don’t know if he ever ended up doing that, but he did say it at one point.
[quote]Xen Nova wrote:
Penn/Sherk: I’d love to see a knockout from sherk so he can redeem himself post-AAS accusations, he has an amazing striking coach in greg nelson but you never see it out of him unfortunately.
imo, penn by KO or submission, I don’t think this goes all the way.
machida/ortiz: i’d like tito to win, and if he does its by lay and pray but imo machida can and probably will win this by knockout.
Silva/Jardine: frankly silva has been focusing on his boxing and let his muay thai slide. No offense to xtreme couture, but he’s been training with them and from his last fight his style has seemed more reserved less “chute boxe”. if he wins its because he returned to the Wanderlei we’re used to seeing. If not jardine is no slouch and he’s in for a rough night.
I agree with you about Greg Jackson’s camp being great, but besides Chuck (who was clearly not showing us his best that night by a longshot), who has Jardine really beaten? Forrest, ok . . . any other (semi-) major players?
Wandy’s camp is no slouch at gameplanning either, ya’ know (cough Randy cough) . . . .
But it should be a fun fight to watch either way; maybe moreso than Penn vs. Sherk.
[quote]knutes101 wrote:
BJ Penn is amazing, but his training is lazy. He will lose due to Sherk’s better cardio.
Jardine will beat Wandy. I like them both, but Jardine has a great corner (Jackson) and is a terrific fighter in the UFC.
Ortiz has spent too much time on his brand and not his body. I am taking Machida.[/quote]
[quote]knutes101 wrote:
BJ Penn is amazing, but his training is lazy. He will lose due to Sherk’s better cardio.[/quote]
I’m actually rooting for Sherk, mostly because he’ll never hear the end of the steroid thing especially if he loses to penn. The above comment no longer applies to Penn though, he’s training pretty hard these days. Not Sherk hard, but hard.
BJ Penn is amazingly good and has a lot of skills very good at submissions.
But on the other i also like sean sherk i met him recently at subway in blaine. he is a pretty cool guy. He has superstrength and it would be hard for bj to submit him. plus his work ethic and drive is incredible if you havent seen his workout routine you can watch it at http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2g5ns_sean-sherk-caveman-training
[quote]Damici wrote:
I thought Wandy said right after his fight with Chuck that he was going to spend some time training with Ernesto Hoost to brush up on his Muay Thai. Don’t know if he ever ended up doing that, but he did say it at one point.
[/quote]
i REALLY hope thats true because thats the PERFECT person to train him absolutely flawless decision if thats true. If he comes in like he was previously he can take the 205 belt pretty easily. The only person who would give him a problem would be machida just because stylistically they matchup badly for each other.
super technical calm collected zen fighter
vs
destructive force of nature tasmanian devil
also we’d have to see how rampage has developed his game so far. Imo he’s still vulnerable to clinch (rampage and franklin heh) and knees so we’ll see. He’s still mostly a boxer though…
