UFC 79

This card is killer. I’m very excited for it. Surprised there hasn’t been a whole lot of discussion on it yet, but here comes my usually incorrect (as of late) thoughts on how this whole deal will play out.

Matt Hughes vs GSP

The fact that people are so overwhelmingly backing GSP here makes me leery. I, too, am picking GSP, but the general disrespect and disregard for what Matt Hughes brings to the ring is straight up shocking. Yes, he got played like a fiddle in their last fight.

But if we learned anything this past year, it’s that anyone on any particular night can be made to look the fool (see: Matt Serra sparking GSP like a Bic). He is a phenomenal MMA wrestler, phenomenally strong, and can make anyone underneath of him his bitch. That said, GSP is a beast. His striking is light years ahead, his wrestling is top notch, his take down defense doesn’t seem to be possible outside of The Matrix, and he has that cockiness and dedication to training that was missing when Serra lit him up.

GSP truly believes he can’t lose, and I think he takes this by a third round stoppage. Expect Hughes to take at least 1 one of those rounds though, more if it goes longer.

Chuck vs Wanderlei

Three years ago, I would have reenacted the Pain Olympics to see this fight. Despite the tarnish the stature of this fight has accumulated with the sharp drop in the rankings of these fighters, it still has me amped. There are no secrets here. Neither fighter is going to construct an elaborate game plan. Both are going to stand in the middle of the ring and say, “You know what I am came here to do, try and stop me”.

And in this style match up, Chuck has the distinct advantage. The first thing that pops into my head in this fight is Wanderlei shattering his orbital socket on a circling and backing Mirko Cro Cop’s left fist. In their peaks, I would say Chuck’s right hand by similar fashion. HOWEVER, the Chuck that fought Jardine was an easy win for a Wandy that displayed a modicum of patience. Wandy seems to have made a lot of positive changes as of late.

Training with Couture and leaving Chute Box was a huge plus. Shawn Tompkins taking over his stand up training was another. Chuck hasn’t changed a damn thing. So I’m going to pick against the logical conclusion here, and say Wanderlei takes this by a second round KO. Mostly because the possibility of Wandy/Rampage III is too much to wish against. 50/50 fight, you can’t pick wrong.

Machida vs Soko

Another absolute dream fight. “Who is Lyoto Machida?” threads were a long running source of hilarity on MMA forums in years prior. This was fitting, as Machida’s in ring style was just as ghostly. This guy is flat impossible to hit. People de-ride him as being boring, but the fact is that Machida is a counter striker of such high caliber that he flat out clowns opponents to the degree that they give up any hope of accomplishing anything against him.

Machida spends the rest of the fight dancing around in a karate stance, content to win the fight without doing a thing. He is a proven commodity. Soko, well what has he proven? He has proven that if fall into his game, he will shit can you in a hurry. But do you remember the last time he got hit in the face? Well, he was knocked out by Glover Texeira.

Also, he hasn’t been in the ring for awhile. I predict Machida frustrating Soko early, getting him over excited, and wind up with him running right into a perfectly timed counter knee. Not only am I prediciting a Machida victory, but I am also predicting his first finish in the UFC.

Of course, Soko running out, throwing Lyoto on his head and mashing his face into bloody pulp in the first 17 seconds wouldn’t surprise me either. That’s why this fight is freaking awesome.

Good review.

If the same Chuck shows up that beat Couture, I’m going with Chuck. However, you cannot count Silva out.

I give him a few disadvantages:

  1. Out of his ‘comfort zone’ in the cage.
  2. No knees to a downed opponent.
  3. No roids.

On the same token I’ll say he has advantages of coming back hungry with something to prove. He has had time to recover from the brutal CroCop knockout and should be ready. He has randy backing him which is enough to get anybody going.

I also see Chuck as getting used to 5 round fights (which was one of his problems against Jardine) and to enveloped in the fighter lifestyle. However, Wandy’s style is made for Chuck. It is what he is looking for.

Chuck KO, 3rd round.

Hughes v GSP:

This fight could go either way. I see it going to a 29-28 UD to GSP. I don’t see Hughes making the same mistakes again. He will be a little more cautious on his feet and will try to work the clinch. Like you said, GSP’s takedown defense is otherworldly.

Soko v Machida

Machida will come in prepared and Soko will be swinging for the fences. Machida should be able to keep him away and get the UD.

From what I have heard Soko is an absolute beast on the ground as well as in the stand-up portion of his game. I would not be surprised at all to see him maul Lyoto on the ground, but if he chooses to stand, I think Lyoto would have the crisper counterstrikes and a definitive edge.

As for Chuck and Wanderlei, I guess it comes down to whoever lands the first punch and puts the other dude down. I’m giving Wandy the edge because it seems like he could finish the fight with punches or knees while Chuck seems hellbent on landing that right hand(after watching his last few fights) and hasn’t really set it up too well of late. Either way, this could be the quickest fight of the evening which is always entertaining.

I just hope Wandy doesn’t hulk out if he drops him and start putting the boot to his face Yuki Kondo-style and get DQ’ed.

[quote]Donut62 wrote:
I just hope Wandy doesn’t hulk out if he drops him and start putting the boot to his face Yuki Kondo-style and get DQ’ed.[/quote]

That would just be a set up for Wandy - Liddell II in Japan on New Year’s Eve 2017… “Revenge, 10 Years In the Making”

…with an undercard of 2 Sumo wrestlers facing off against 10 rings girls (just so the weight is even).

[quote]Donut62 wrote:
This card is killer. I’m very excited for it. Surprised there hasn’t been a whole lot of discussion on it yet, but here comes my usually incorrect (as of late) thoughts on how this whole deal will play out.

Matt Hughes vs GSP

The fact that people are so overwhelmingly backing GSP here makes me leery. I, too, am picking GSP, but the general disrespect and disregard for what Matt Hughes brings to the ring is straight up shocking. Yes, he got played like a fiddle in their last fight.

But if we learned anything this past year, it’s that anyone on any particular night can be made to look the fool (see: Matt Serra sparking GSP like a Bic). He is a phenomenal MMA wrestler, phenomenally strong, and can make anyone underneath of him his bitch. That said, GSP is a beast. His striking is light years ahead, his wrestling is top notch, his take down defense doesn’t seem to be possible outside of The Matrix, and he has that cockiness and dedication to training that was missing when Serra lit him up.

GSP truly believes he can’t lose, and I think he takes this by a third round stoppage. Expect Hughes to take at least 1 one of those rounds though, more if it goes longer.

Chuck vs Wanderlei

Three years ago, I would have reenacted the Pain Olympics to see this fight. Despite the tarnish the stature of this fight has accumulated with the sharp drop in the rankings of these fighters, it still has me amped. There are no secrets here. Neither fighter is going to construct an elaborate game plan. Both are going to stand in the middle of the ring and say, “You know what I am came here to do, try and stop me”.

And in this style match up, Chuck has the distinct advantage. The first thing that pops into my head in this fight is Wanderlei shattering his orbital socket on a circling and backing Mirko Cro Cop’s left fist. In their peaks, I would say Chuck’s right hand by similar fashion. HOWEVER, the Chuck that fought Jardine was an easy win for a Wandy that displayed a modicum of patience. Wandy seems to have made a lot of positive changes as of late.

Training with Couture and leaving Chute Box was a huge plus. Shawn Tompkins taking over his stand up training was another. Chuck hasn’t changed a damn thing. So I’m going to pick against the logical conclusion here, and say Wanderlei takes this by a second round KO. Mostly because the possibility of Wandy/Rampage III is too much to wish against. 50/50 fight, you can’t pick wrong.

Machida vs Soko

Another absolute dream fight. “Who is Lyoto Machida?” threads were a long running source of hilarity on MMA forums in years prior. This was fitting, as Machida’s in ring style was just as ghostly. This guy is flat impossible to hit. People de-ride him as being boring, but the fact is that Machida is a counter striker of such high caliber that he flat out clowns opponents to the degree that they give up any hope of accomplishing anything against him.

Machida spends the rest of the fight dancing around in a karate stance, content to win the fight without doing a thing. He is a proven commodity. Soko, well what has he proven? He has proven that if fall into his game, he will shit can you in a hurry. But do you remember the last time he got hit in the face? Well, he was knocked out by Glover Texeira.

Also, he hasn’t been in the ring for awhile. I predict Machida frustrating Soko early, getting him over excited, and wind up with him running right into a perfectly timed counter knee. Not only am I prediciting a Machida victory, but I am also predicting his first finish in the UFC.

Of course, Soko running out, throwing Lyoto on his head and mashing his face into bloody pulp in the first 17 seconds wouldn’t surprise me either. That’s why this fight is freaking awesome.[/quote]

Good review, Donut.

I’m right with you on Hughes. It seems like people have forgotten how truly dominant this man was before GSP knocked him silly late last year. He lost that fight because he was stubborn and tried to trade standing with GSP and his standup is crap compared to what GSP brings. Plus, GSP’s takedown defense is reaching Liddell-esque levels.

I think Hughes leaving Pat Miletich is going to be the difference in this fight. Without Pat in his corner, I think Hughes will start off strong, but once GSP begins to shut down Hughes’ takedowns, it will just be a matter of time before he gets caught with a punch or kick. I’ll go with Donut and say GSP wins in the 3rd round by TKO.

As for Liddell-Silva, I definitely don’t see this one going the distance. This fight is perfect for Silva’s debut to the UFC, as he gets to stand and trade bombs with the one man he’s been dying to fight. This should be explosive. A year ago, I would’ve went with Chuck, hands down. But, after seeing him lose twice, and watching the Countdown show the other night, it’s pretty clear in my mind that Silva has the edge going into the fight. Liddell hasn’t changed his strategy, and his attitude suggests one of an aging athlete holding onto his glory days. He still thinks his right hand is enough to win. Who knows, it still might be. But, I think after you lose twice, you have to look at yourself honestly and at least try and vary things a bit. Silva has done that, training with Couture. His strength/endurance workouts look sick, too. A win by Silva sets him up to be a big star, and sets him up for a fight with the winner of Griffin-Rampage, and that will be a big draw. I’ll go with Silva by 2nd round KO.

Soko-Machida will also be great. Machida is the most under-appreciated man in MMA, with perhaps Okami running a distant second. Machida isn’t overly exciting, but he does his job damn well and is very tough to beat. Soko burst onto the scene, but he hasn’t fought in a while. He has a great camp, but I think the ring rust will be too much, as will the 1st-time big fight atmosphere. I’ll go with Machida by unanimous decision.

Like everyone else, I wish it was 2003 and Chuck and Wandy were fighting in Pride. But I guess I’ll take this. I’m probably going to end up eating my words, but I can’t pick Chuck to beat Wandy. Like Donut mentioned, Wandy is training in probably the best camp out their right now and will come in perhaps the most prepared he has been in his life. Chuck on the other hand will walk into the cage with a slight hangover and viagra still in his blood stream while drinking a beer and eating beef jerky. Wandy by KO early in the second.

GSP/Hughes is going to be amazing. I’m picking GSP to win by the slightest of margins. I expect both to come in at the top of their games, but GSP takes the edge in too many categories to pick against. GSP by decision.

Soko is going to eat Machida’s babies. I wouldn’t be surprised if this looked more like pro wrestling than MMA. Soko by flying elbow drop from the cage in the first 90 seconds of round 1.

GSP - Hughes. I don’t know. GSP was flat owned by Sera in his title defense. Hughes is much much tougher than he showed in his last GSP fight.

I think it is going to come down to who takes advantage of opponent breakdowns. No way to know who that will be, or when. I think I’ll have my money on Hughes, though.

Liddell - Mandy. Depends on which Chuck shows up for the fight. If it is the same Liddell that we have seen in the last two fights - give this one to Mandy early. If it is the old Chuck - His right hand will win it for him.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
I think I’ll have my money on Hughes, though.
[/quote]

If anyone is picking against the betting lines, Hughes looks like a solid pick. I have seen him around +200 which is preposterous.

Rainjack, who is this “Mandy” you speak of? Mandy Moore?

[quote]Djwlfpack wrote:
Rainjack, who is this “Mandy” you speak of? Mandy Moore?[/quote]

Wandy/Mandy - sue me I’m dyslexic with fat hands.

Liddell only seems to use 3 tools - overhand right, occasional left, and takedown defense/stand back up. Where are the kicks? Why zero ground action, even though he wrestled in college? No clinch work…

Hey Donut, are you upset about having to go all the way to Columbus in March? That is a fight I am looking forward to seeing.

[quote]treco wrote:
Liddell only seems to use 3 tools - overhand right, occasional left, and takedown defense/stand back up. Where are the kicks? Why zero ground action, even though he wrestled in college? No clinch work…
[/quote]

Probably because those three tools beat the fuck out of everyone in the division for 3 years. And I would point to Chuck’s wrestling ability in the way he avoided the takedown and was able to regain his feet. Some broke ass wrestler wouldn’t have been able to tripod up from under Randy Couture.

[quote]
Hey Donut, are you upset about having to go all the way to Columbus in March? That is a fight I am looking forward to seeing.[/quote]

I don’t think I am going, unfortunately. I will probably go to The Arnold for the strongman and powerlifting, but seeing a UFC live is a less than fulfilling experience to say the least. A great fight it is, perhaps one of the best ever, and one worthy of much contemplation as it approaches.

Just out of curiosity, why do they suck to see live?

[quote]Donut62 wrote:
treco wrote:
Liddell only seems to use 3 tools - overhand right, occasional left, and takedown defense/stand back up. Where are the kicks? Why zero ground action, even though he wrestled in college? No clinch work…

Probably because those three tools beat the fuck out of everyone in the division for 3 years. And I would point to Chuck’s wrestling ability in the way he avoided the takedown and was able to regain his feet. Some broke ass wrestler wouldn’t have been able to tripod up from under Randy Couture.

Hey Donut, are you upset about having to go all the way to Columbus in March? That is a fight I am looking forward to seeing.

I don’t think I am going, unfortunately. I will probably go to The Arnold for the strongman and powerlifting, but seeing a UFC live is a less than fulfilling experience to say the least. A great fight it is, perhaps one of the best ever, and one worthy of much contemplation as it approaches.[/quote]

Chuck has been my favorite fighter. I have seen him go from a bartender in San Luis Obispo to the celebrity he is now. I would love to see him come back…but his last two fights make it tough to have faith. I am hoping he comes out fired up and knocks Silva out. Nothing against Silva…I just want to see the ol’ Chuck back.

Go Chuck!
Go GSP!

I can’t wait to see this event.

A lot of people call Machida boring but I kind of like his style. Don’t really know why. I guess it’s just refreshing to see a good striker who isn’t Muay Thai or Boxing.

Did anyone see the special on Silva? I don’t really know much about that type of training, so I didn’t know whether to be impressed by the snorkel idea or not. The way it was explained seemed like a neat idea, but I’m pretty curious as to why I haven’t seen it (is there a large obvious reason why it’s a bad idea?)

Also, hype or not, the stare down between Chuck and Wanderlei got me really pumped up for the event.

[quote]Damici wrote:
Just out of curiosity, why do they suck to see live?
[/quote]

A few things.

A) The fans, for the most part, are douche bags. You get a solid mix of pro wrestling fans and drunk people cheering for blood and chanting “USA!”. The hardcores and true respectful fans are a silent minority.

B) The cage, quite simply, sucks to see live. All those cool camera shots you get in the PPV are obtained by a small army of fat guys climbing all over the cage and blocking the view. Everyone from about 15 rows from the cage generally stares at the TV monitors around the arena, which I can do in the comfort of my living room with $300 in my pocket.

It’s worth seeing just to say you saw it, and the environment adds to the effect. Seeing Rich Franklin walk out in his hometown was electric. But at the end of the day, I’d rather enjoy it on my couch with some good buddies and beer.

Wanderlei’s All Access. One of the best they have done:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3vo9j_ufc-all-access-wanderlei-silva_sport

Watching it makes me much more confident in my pick of Wandy. Chuck is still do the same old same old back at The Pit right after a loss, Wandy has had a lot of time off and reinvigorated himself.

Damn, after watching that I have to say, I think that unless Chuck lands a really, really lucky punch, I think Wanderlei is gonna’ eat him alive.

[quote]Donut62 wrote:
Wanderlei’s All Access. One of the best they have done:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3vo9j_ufc-all-access-wanderlei-silva_sport

Watching it makes me much more confident in my pick of Wandy. Chuck is still do the same old same old back at The Pit right after a loss, Wandy has had a lot of time off and reinvigorated himself.[/quote]