[quote]apwsearch wrote:
Does anyone else think Franklin is basically in a do or die situation?[/quote]
Meh, not really. He’s locked out of the title effectively unless Anderson goes up or down. He has a new contract with at least three fights left, I believe, and is still a popular guy. He’s also fought at 205 before and could easily go up there if he got bored of fighting contendors at 185.
[quote]Donut62 wrote:
apwsearch wrote:
Does anyone else think Franklin is basically in a do or die situation?
Meh, not really. He’s locked out of the title effectively unless Anderson goes up or down. He has a new contract with at least three fights left, I believe, and is still a popular guy. He’s also fought at 205 before and could easily go up there if he got bored of fighting contendors at 185.[/quote]
Hmm. Wasn’t aware of the contrat. I just think if he gets beat Saturday it will be a long road back for him and quite the fall from grace.
Agree with the popularity and hadn’t taken into account his ability to move up.
[quote]apwsearch wrote:
Hmm. Wasn’t aware of the contrat. I just think if he gets beat Saturday it will be a long road back for him and quite the fall from grace.[/quote]
It certainly wouldn’t be good for career. But right now, after being crushed by Anderson twice in horrific fashion, I think a lot of people have just written him off (wrongly, IMO) as a top contender. People are fickle and it’s all about what have you done for me lately. If he keeps putting on entertaining fights and does the whole “I’m Joe-small town God-fearing nice guy” he’ll have a place to get a paycheck.
Honestly I think Lutter is a good bet if the odds are favorable. He is tough as nails.
Just curious if anyone here is going to be at the fight. I’m going to be in Montreal for a roller derby tournament so I bought a ticket for this too.
48hrs to go…cant wait!!
Damn, BetUS has GSP at -500 and Serra at +350.
With those odds Serra seems like he might be worth putting some money on . . . .
(Although I usually get wiped out whenever I bet on something). 
[quote]Damici wrote:
Damn, BetUS has GSP at -500 and Serra at +350.
With those odds Serra seems like he might be worth putting some money on . . . .
(Although I usually get wiped out whenever I bet on something). :-([/quote]
I would not put money against GSP. He outwrestled Koscheck and Hughes. He whipped their ass; made them look like amateurs. Serra has punching power and seemingly is well prepared mentally, but so too is GSP. GSP is just seems like too much for any of the Welterweights to take.
My Picks:
GSP
Franklin
Quarry
Bisping
Danzig
MacDonald
Day
Stout
Goulet
Considering how he ran over GSP the last time I am surprised that Serra would be considered an underdog.
[quote]Sifu wrote:
Considering how he ran over GSP the last time I am surprised that Serra would be considered an underdog. [/quote]
Read the betting line by Performify. He addresses your thoughts.
http://mmajunkie.com/news/4161/performifys-picks-ufc-83.mma
Money Quote"
" I’m one of the people who consider the first Serra vs. St. Pierre fight as a statistical anomaly: a real-world example of a true longshot coming through. I realistically gave Serra only a small percentage chance to win the first fight, and I still sincerely believe that if their fight from UFC 69 were held 10 different times, St. Pierre would win nine out of the 10. "
Anyone else going to place your thoughts on the fights?
[quote]Sifu wrote:
Considering how he ran over GSP the last time I am surprised that Serra would be considered an underdog. [/quote]
If they fought 100 times, Serra would win 3.
I read your link. I definately think that you guys are underestimating Serra. Serra is a top student of Renzo Gracie. So we know he had a good teacher.
Before he went into UFC Serra won some important Jiu Jitsu tournaments. When a guy who is a champion Jiu Jitsu competitor wins a UFC title, I would not be so quick to dismiss it as a fluke.
Serra was very effective at using the differences in their builds last time. At five foot, six inches and a hundred sixty five pounds Serra is short but he is thick. It can be hard to hurt a guy who is built like that if you are a lot taller and he comes at you like Serra did to GSP the last time.
I think it has the potential to be a really good fight. GSP is the one who needs to bring something different this time on the stand up, because Serra could just do the same thing he did last time, run him down and KTFO. Or GSP could try to take him down and test his skills against the Jiu Jitsu champ.
Sifu, you take Serra in the fight. Cool. I am taking GSP. We have just over 24 hours to put this argument to bed. Who else on the card? We need Donut, Damici, et al to chime in as well.
GSP. 
The one thing we didn’t get to see at all in their last fight was any ground fighting, or even so much as one takedown attempt on either guy’s part. While Serra might be a marginally more dangerous striker than GSP (and I think he certainly hits harder), GSP didn’t even so much as attempt a takedown in their last fight.
GSP’s training camp has said that he’s had no trouble taking down lightheavyweights and heavyweights, and he certainly took Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck the fuck down at will. He’s shown himself to be a better wrestler than the best wrestlers in his weight class. He controlled Matt Hughes on the ground like he was giving a seminar. So I think if he actually uses a little “strategery,” as our President would say, in this fight, and takes Serra down, I think he takes it. I don’t think Matt will be able to keep it standing, and I think Georges’s wrestling, overall athleticism and great ground control, combined with being taller and having longer limbs, mean he’ll control things on the ground pretty well.
It’ll probably be by decision, but I think Georges takes it.
While I think GSP could stop Serra on his feet, I don’t think he’s going to take the chance. Despite Serra’s JJ background, he’s pretty susceptible to the ground and pound. Karo game him a good working over on the ground in their fight, and GSP’s ground and pound is a level above Karo’s.
There’s no way Serra’s going to tap, so it will probably be by decision. However, after a few rounds of being pummelled on the ground, a ref stoppage may not be out of the question.
[quote]Hodgie wrote:
While I think GSP could stop Serra on his feet, I don’t think he’s going to take the chance. Despite Serra’s JJ background, he’s pretty susceptible to the ground and pound. Karo game him a good working over on the ground in their fight, and GSP’s ground and pound is a level above Karo’s.
There’s no way Serra’s going to tap, so it will probably be by decision. However, after a few rounds of being pummelled on the ground, a ref stoppage may not be out of the question. [/quote]
Yep. That’s how I see it going. He may try to work the clinch too, to see how he does in that range. I don’t see him staying to bang if he gets in trouble at all this time.
Yeah, I think Damici and Hodgie are pretty on with their predictions as well. I think GSP took Serra way too lightly in their first fight and as a result got caught by a lesser (yet still dangerous) opponent in Serra.
I don’t think that Serra’s build was the problem. GSP tooled on Shawn Sherk who is every bit as stocky as Serra.
I don’t think that Serra’s JJ is going to win the fight for him. GSP was able to handle BJ Penn’s JJ, which is better than Serra’s (BJ has beaten Renzo as well). He also manhandled Hughes, who is a BJJ black belt himself and also tooled on Royce Gracie.
As was stated, GSP has outwrestled both Hughes (who is one of the strongest, most dominant champions ever in the UFC, and also a two time Division 1 All American wrestler) and Koscheck (who is a 3 time Division 1 National Champion wrestler!). So I think he’ll have no problem both taking Serra down and controlling him once he gets him there.
My specific prediction is for either ref stoppage via GNP, or submission (yeah I know Serra doesn’t want to tap, but I think he will if he knows GSP is gonna break something, he’s already coming back from an injury I doubt he’ll want to have to recover from another one). Plus, the ref will likely stop the fight if he senses that Serra is going to let GSP break something rather than tap.
I really don’t see it going to a decision, but if it does I also see GSP winning.
Really the only way that I see Serra winning is if he catches GSP with another bomb from standing. And, like I said before, I don’t think GSP is gonna let that happen.
Twenty-four hours and counting down. I keep watching that last fight and that clip on the back of the head of GSP was the problem. Plus maybe GSP was a little to sure of himself.
New fight new strategy, GSP will be in top form and he will dominate this fight. The difference between GSP and other fighters is that he is constantly changing his game. Other fighter keep fighting the same way, not GSP. He trains to dominate the fighter is up against.
I want this fight to last, I want Serra hurt real bad. A lesson needs to be taught and the professor is GSP.
Knock out in the fourth!!
GSP is going to stomp Serra stupid. “Matt Serra is good on the ground!” Super duper. Sport ju-jitsu does not equal MMA. Serra has never been a submission wizard in MMA, unless triangling Kelly fucking Dullanty 6 years ago makes you a mat wizard. GSP TKO Round 2.
Franklin should outwork Lutter without too much trouble. I’ll take an Ace UD.
Just finished watching the weigh-ins…man, I don’t know whether or not Matt Serra should be joking about keeping the car running or not, he might actually need it with a crowd that hostile.
It was kinda cool to see Bisping with abs, he looks to be in great shape to win his debut.
On another note, does anyone here know what exactly GSP was saying in French? At first I thought he was just translating from English but it doesn’t seem like it.
Can’t wait to see it. I think GSP puts Serra down and dominates him. Don’t care what round it ends.
I want to see a Lutter/Anderson match up again so I hope Franklin will forgive me.