Rep Max Estimate Inaccurate

Hi,
I recently finished a 9 week GZCL program and tested my maxes today. The program uses a lot of rep maxes (ex. 3x4 with the last set an AMRAP), which was supposed to me a general sense of where I was at without actually testing my max.
The problem is that, for my deadlift, my predicted strength based on rep maxes were way off from my max that I tested today.
Two weeks ago, I did 220lbs for a set of 10 reps, which translates to a predicted max of 280-290lbs. However, when I tested today, I barely managed 265lbs and couldn’t even break 275 an inch off the floor. I don’t think the issue was recovery since I didn’t do any heavy barbell work for the 5 days leading up to today and rested yesterday. Plus I felt really strong. Is this normal? What should I do, I really want that 300lb deadlift.
PS. I’m a 5ft, 90lb, 17 year old girl whose been training pretty consistently for 3 years.
Thanks

Those things are just estimates and females tend to do better with reps so they effectively overestimate 1RMs for many females.

If you are getting stronger, don’t sweat it. Keep training hard and you will get there.

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I never found predicted RM’s to be worth much unless you have been training for years and have training data to show how your RM’s corelate to your MEET MAXES (gym maxes mean shit).

Of course an increase in your RM means you got stronger, but performing a TRUE 1RM, requires a fair amount of practice at performing singles (90-95%). Do not max in the gym. This is a common piece of advice from countless top lifters.

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If you expected to get 280 and pulled 265 then the 1rm calculation worked as I would expect it to. There is no way to accurately predict what you could potentially lift except by doing near-max singles and estimating how much more you had left in you. Even then, it’s still hit and miss and in most cases it’s better to be a little conservative with your attempts in a meet.

For deadlift you need to hit heavier weight under 4 reps. I used to see it a lot guys would bench 225 x12 and struggle with 30 more lbs because they don’t hit it often enough. Using bench cause it’s the lowest number and the jacket you go the less reps you get at certain percentage. I can hit 315x8 is my best and my best single is 400 because I rarely train over 5 reps. Use heavier weight.

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As mentioned before, ladies are known for being able to grind out reps with near maximal weights, and not translate into the “theoretical” single. Not uncommon for a lady to hit 5x5x90%… which a lot of guys may not be able to do once. I know guys who can’t even do 90%x3 in their pulls, meanwhile my best rep set in DL was 7 reps at nearly 94% of my max (all dead-stop reps too).

The rep/max calculators also leave a little to be desired the higher the reps go. Ten dead-stop pulls is different than ten touch & go’s. Bench reps or squats cut a little short of lockout or depth, are also going to inflate projected max. (that said, your reps may well be flawless, just an example).

Keep training hard! You may find you’re “wired” to be a repper… you likely need heavier work at a higher % of your max. Lots of variables, but you’re doing great.

RM calculators only really work well if you train to get proportionately strong at everything from 1-10 reps…if you don’t, what will happen is you become super-strong for say high reps and mediocre strong at lower reps which throws the calculation out of whack! (like with most things in life you get good at what you practice + intelligent interpretation necessitates the application of a li l common sense too).

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Did you do those reps touch & go or from a dead stop on each? Touch & go are effectively easier and will mess up your estimate. I’ve made that mistake and with touch & go bench press as well.

If you want 300, start pulling 240x3-5 consistently. Warm up but don’t warm up doing 10s. Try this:

135x5 155x3 185x3 205x1 225x1 240x3-5.

Save your energy. When you start consistently pulling 240 for 5s, give that 300 a shot. Should be there and then some.

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Female lifters are better able to lift reps at higher percentages than males. For a female to deadlift 300 I would estimate a 5RM of 280-285.

I did them all dead stop and sumo

I think it has a lot to do with the individual too, My bench is always about 30 pounds under my predicted max from reps, my squat is about 70 pounds over and my deadlift is pretty much right on.

also sumo is gonna be more efficient for reps than conventional

Thanks for the help!

Also, do any of you guys have suggestions for a good program I should follow?

I would do the a linear progression program starting out with some kind of basic 5x5 template, Run that dry then 3x5, run that dry and then something like the texas method before you play around with anything else

If your lifts are going up with your current program then stick with it, whether it’s rep max PRs or 1rm’s. Part of your issue with max attempts not going as planned might have to do with how you peaked for them. I definitely wouldn’t be doing sets of 10 two weeks out from a 1rm test. Also, you don’t actually need to test maxes outside of a meet.

This is part of the issue. Sumo, moreso than conventional, is “easy” to hit big reps. I’ve seen some really high-rep sumo lifts, done perfectly, that don’t translate into a single. (men & women both) Watched my buddy pull 450x5 perfect sumo reps… then only to hit 457 at the contest and miss 473. He was the classic sumo technique, where it would barely break off the floor, then zip to lockout afterwards.

Techniques, form, bodies… all unique.

Yes, Keep lifting…keep lifting.

Also what everybody else said about Women, Reps and Sumo and everybody is different.

Personally my Tap and Go Deads line up really well and Bench and Squat I am 5-20% stronger on my 1RMs depending on the reps etc.

This varies from person to person, although I have heard the same argument before. Just to give you an example, Krzysztof Wierzbicki has pulled 900 and 940 or so in gear, his best double is around 800. I struggle to rep anything close to 500 and I pulled an easy 545 the other day, should be able to manage another 20. My assumption is that the biggest factor influencing how many reps you can do at a given percentage is how you train - if you do rep maxes you will be better at doing reps at a high %, if you do low reps and submaximal work then you won’t have the same effect. Different ways to skin a cat, all that matters in the end is what you can lift for a single rep.

It is only intended to be used as an estimate I wouldn’t worry heavily about it. Focus on getting stronger in all rep ranges that are important as that is what matters and you can track effectively.