Four years ago the democrats launched a fierce “October Surprise” a few days before the election. Most remember that it was the publication of President Bush’s DUI from several years back.
I have a strong suspicion that perhaps one, or both parites will have an October Surprise for the opposing candidate.
First, do the rest of you agree with me? Secondly, which side do you feel will launch the October Surprise (if only one side does) and lastly, what could it be?
I don’t know. What else could they have dug up on Bush that would be significant enough to warrant it an “October Surprise”?
As for Kerry, there’s probably something, but I’m not sure. I think there’s too much of the base “diggin’ in”, so to speak. Any surprise is probably a waste. I’ll be casting my vote this weekend if I can find time (got an early vote from Oct. 23 to Oct. 30).
Bush 2000-2008!
Zeb:
I can’t imagine what the Democrats would have left in the bag that they haven’t already used – let’s see here: rumors of drug use, fake memos attacking the national guard service, DUI…
Kerry’s kept some stuff about his military service and protest activities basically under wraps, but I would think most people know the gist of those accusations by now.
I guess in either case it really would be an “October Surprise”.
However, I don’t doubt the virulently anti-Bush left-wing could come up with something, and I don’t forget Susan Estrich’s shrill warnings after the Republican convention:
CAMPAIGN
Lies move Democrats to dig up dirt
SUSAN ESTRICH
My Democratic friends are mad as hell, and they aren’t going to take it any more.
They are worried, having watched as another August smear campaign, full of lies and half-truths, takes its toll in the polls.
They are frustrated, mostly at the Kerry campaign, for naively believing that just because all the newspapers and news organizations that investigated the charges of the Swift Boat assassins found them to be full of lies and half-truths, they wouldn’t take their toll. The word on the street is that Kerry was ready to fire back the day the story broke, but that his campaign, believing the charges would blow over if they ignored them, counseled restraint.
But most of all, activist Democrats are angry. As one who lived through an August like this, 16 years ago - replete with rumors that were lies, which the Bush campaign claimed they had nothing to do with and later admitted they had planted - I’m angry, too. I’ve been to this movie. Lies move numbers.
Remember the one about Dukakis suffering from depression after he lost the governorship? We lost six points over that lie, planted by George W.'s close friend and colleague in the 1988 campaign, Lee Atwater. Or how about the one about Kitty Dukakis burning a flag at an anti-war demonstration, another out-and-out lie, which the Bush campaign denied having anything to do with, except that it turned out to have come from a United States senator via the Republican National Committee? Atwater later apologized to me for that, too, on his deathbed. Did I mention that Lee’s wife is connected to the woman running the Swift Boat campaign?
What do you do, Democrats keep asking each other.
The answer is not pretty, but everyone knows what it is.
The trouble with Democrats, traditionally, is that we’re not mean enough. Too much is at stake to play by Dukakis’ rules and lose again. That is the conclusion Democrats have reached. So watch out. Millions of dollars will be on the table. And there are plenty of choices for what to spend it on.
Will it be the three, or is it four or five, drunken driving arrests that Bush and Cheney, the two most powerful men in the world, managed to rack up?
After Vietnam, nothing is ancient history, and Cheney is still drinking. What their records suggest is not only a serious problem with alcoholism, which Bush but not Cheney has acknowledged, but also an even more serious problem of judgment.
What if Bush were to fall off the wagon? Then what? Has America really faced the fact that we have an alcoholic as our president?
Or how about Dead Texans for Truth, highlighting those who served in Vietnam instead of the privileged draft-dodging president, and ended up as names on the wall instead of members of the Air National Guard.
Or maybe it will be Texas National Guardsmen for Truth, who can explain exactly what George W. Bush was doing while John Kerry was putting his life on the line. Perhaps with money on the table, or investigators on their trail, we will learn just what kind of wild and crazy things the president was doing while Kerry was saving a man’s life, facing enemy fire and serving his country.
Or could it be George Bush’s Former Female Friends for Truth. A forthcoming book by Kitty Kelley raises questions about whether the president has practiced what he preaches on abortion. As Larry Flynt discovered, a million dollars loosens lips. Are there others to be loosened?
Are you shocked? Remember Dukakis? Now he teaches at Northeastern University. John Kerry has been very fair in dealing with the Swift Boat charges. That’s why so many of my Democrat friends have decided to stop talking to the campaign, and start putting money together independently.
The arrogant little Republican boys who strutted around New York this week, claiming that they have this one won, would do well to take a step back. It could be a long and ugly road to November.
Contact Estrich, former campaign manager for Dukakis for President in 1988, at 5777 W. Century Blvd., Suite 700, Los Angeles, CA 90045.
The Dems indicted Casper Weinberger the Friday before the election, and Bush sr. lost 5 points.
There was also an event in 1996, but I cannot remember what it was, but I doubt it was needed. (Dick Morris talked about this recently.)
I think it is funny that the Democrats are repeatedly creating an October surprise, then the media talks about being worried that the Republicans will create one.
[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
Zeb:
I can’t imagine what the Democrats would have left in the bag that they haven’t already used – let’s see here: rumors of drug use, fake memos attacking the national guard service, DUI…
[/quote]
Are you kidding me BB? First of all, the Bush camp has done far more shady shit in the name of discrediting Kerry. For example, you cite the fake memo as the works of the Dems – a claim which there is no substantiation – yet the Swift Boat attacks, which lasted an awfully long time, link to the Bush camp quite easily. Secondly, I’m sure there is plenty more crap to dig up on the President. Problem is, he’s SO secretive and has SO many people interested in protecting him, we’ll see if any of it can come out.
I don’t think an Oct. surprise is in the Dems best interest…we saw the DUI didn’t have much of an affect, and the Rep. base seems stronger now than in 2000…so, for example, pictures of Bush snorting coke with some hookers or something similarly sleezy could arise but would have little impact on Bush voters…would it matter to anyone here?
Further, I don’t think an Oct. surprise is necesarry – today’s Zogby has the candidates tied at 46%. Plus, with the Dems 8 million new registered voters, we should be standing fairly strong.
RSU:
Whahahaha the dems 8 million new voters?
You are a funny one.
How many 18 to 22 year olds do you think will be voting my friend? 30%? 35%? And of the total Bush will get at least 40%, or more, of those.
You guys also registered more black voters. How many of them do you think will be voting? Perhaps 20%? You may not have noticed yet, but blacks are not exactly thrilled with Kerry. That’s another one you are going to have to see to believe.
Registering is not voting! I really hope you are not counting on all of that registration talk to make a difference in this election! If so you will be miserably surprised.
My guesses about the October surprise involved the capture/killing of OBL. Some of my repub friends jokingly tell me that he has been hiding out in the Lincoln Bedroom. There were a few publications from overseas at the first of 2004 that claimed that OBL had been captured and was not going to be brought out until it was more politically opportune, like - say - October '04. The problem with the articles was that the sources were anonymous, so it could very easily be a hoax.
If he were captured earlier, I don’t think that they would simply announce that they had him. My paranoid brain thinks that they would stage a special forces operation where they are following a lead on some AQ suspects, of course with a Fox News team in tow, and OBL will be killed in the operation so he cannot live to tell the national press that he had actually been in captivity for several months. I hate to admit it, but as close as the race is now (and even without it I still doubt that Kerry will win), that would seal the deal for another term with Bush.
Don’t rag on me for actually believing this stuff. I admit that it is flight-of-fancy thoughts, but if OBL is killed by the end of the month, it is the kind of thing that makes you go, “HM!”
RSU:
Not kidding at all.
The Bush camp has as much to do with the Swiftboat Vets as Kerry does with MoveOn.org, which is to say, not much, although they have the same objective.
We don’t know who authored the fake memo, as apparently CBS’ crack internal investigation team hasn’t turned it up, and no other news agency thinks it’s very important. What we do know is that at least Joe Lockhart and Max Cleland met with the guy who produced it, and Kerry had an add campaign, “Fortunate Son”, which kicked off coincident with the breaking of the story… Hmmm…
The DUI story actually worked pretty well – Al Gore made up over 4 points from the final polls to the results – and it was fairly consistent across the polls. Perhaps they were all just off…
I love that Bush is “so secretive”, yet Kerry is the one who hasn’t released his education history or signed the form to release his military records. Oh, and don’t forget Kerry’s secret CIA hat that he carries around in his briefcase…
I think the October suprise will be a November suprise.
It seems the Democrats are going to litigate this election no matter what percentage they lose by.
Sad state of affairs when that is part of your campaign strategy.
[quote]ZEB wrote:
RSU:
Whahahaha the dems 8 million new voters?
You are a funny one.
How many 18 to 22 year olds do you think will be voting my friend? 30%? 35%? And of the total Bush will get at least 40%, or more, of those.
You guys also registered more black voters. How many of them do you think will be voting? Perhaps 20%? You may not have noticed yet, but blacks are not exactly thrilled with Kerry. That’s another one you are going to have to see to believe.[/quote]
Where do you get these fantastic percentages from, ZEB? Citing fabricated percentages makes you seem like you know what you’re talking about!
[quote]
Registering is not voting! I really hope you are not counting on all of that registration talk to make a difference in this election! If so you will be miserably surprised.[/quote]
We will see.
[quote]Roy Batty wrote:
Don’t rag on me for actually believing this stuff. I admit that it is flight-of-fancy thoughts, but if OBL is killed by the end of the month, it is the kind of thing that makes you go, “HM!”[/quote]
People would be wrong to rag on you for considering such claims. This administration will do anything – ANYTHING – to get reelected and continue to protect their narrow circle of interests.
[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
3) The DUI story actually worked pretty well – Al Gore made up over 4 points from the final polls to the results – and it was fairly consistent across the polls. Perhaps they were all just off…
[/quote]
What’s wrong with releasing the DUI story? It was true, no? Does the public not have a right to know the truth that GWB had an alcohol problem and in fact had been arrested for driving while intoxicated? I don’t see it being dirty when its indisputable.
RSU:
I’m afraid (for your sake) I do know what I am talking about. All the millions of new voters which MTV helped motivate will let you down in the end. Read some statistics on newly registered voters. Especially the newly registered “young” voter. Also, if you followed the election a bit closer you would know that African Americans support Bush by about twice the margin that they did in 2000! I also doubt the Catholic vote is thrilled with the Kerry choice…read about RSU…read…
I have been reading about all the new voters registered for several election cycles. Guess what? Never made a difference and won’t this time around…so keep dreaming. This is an election about who can motivate their original base to turn out. Now, if the democrats can do this better than the republicans Kerry will be elected. However, do a little reading about how Karl Rove (the man you love to hate) has initiated the finest grass roots get out the vote plan that has ever been.
BB is correct, the DUI release kept the evangelical Christian vote down by up to 4 million votes. If they can come up with something that powerful again, Kerry may win. However, the feeble “Cheneys daughter is a lesbian” comment backfired. Keep in mind that I feel that the democrats will come up with something. It’s not in their nature to go down without at least one or two more low blows. I am hoping the republicans can at least match the dirt…(sad state of affairs).
You see nothing dirty about the release of information about Bush’s DUI a few days before the election, becuse you as you stated “it’s true” and of course you don’t like Bush. However, you see plenty dirty about a film that exposes Kerry as somewhat anti-American because you like him, and so it goes…
[quote]ZEB wrote:
You see nothing dirty about the release of information about Bush’s DUI a few days before the election, becuse you as you stated “it’s true” and of course you don’t like Bush. However, you see plenty dirty about a film that exposes Kerry as somewhat anti-American because you like him, and so it goes…
[/quote]
YOu’ve compared apples to oranges. Remember, the DUI is true, the “film” – shown as “news” – was misconstrued (so i hear…has anyone seen it?) and is NOT news.
Roy,
I liked your last post.
You are behaving more thoughtfully lately.
I appreciate that.
JeffR
RSU,
Please go to www.kerryoniraq.com.
If this doesn’t dissuade you from voting for this clown, then nothing will.
JeffR
RSU:
It is indeed news that Kerry protested the war and demeaned his fellow swift boat veterans? Albeit old news. Then again the DUI issue was pretty old news as well.
Personally, I don’t think either of these things should be issues. However, that’s not how the game is played, unfortunately.
No October surprise is necessary. Bush’s record as president is so shitty that even many Republicans are going to vote Kerry, or simply not vote.
However there are some rumors that China may be holding Osama Bin Laden, and we are in negotiations to get him.
Another surprise would be the leak of the 9-11 report that the CIA did, that allegedly places blame on Bush’s cabinet for incompetence and inaction.
To my Bushie friends, I understand your frustration. You FINALLY got “your” guy into office, and have a Republican majority in Congress, and the result is an epic clusterfuck:
runaway spending
massive growth of the federal government
overall loss of jobs
sluggish economy
worst attack on US soil in history
non-essential war that costs hundreds of billions
and so on
Your team had a clear shot, but instead of a slam dunk, you kicked the ball out of bounds.
Reward Failure! Vote for Bush!
[quote]Right Side Up wrote:
ZEB wrote:
You see nothing dirty about the release of information about Bush’s DUI a few days before the election, becuse you as you stated “it’s true” and of course you don’t like Bush. However, you see plenty dirty about a film that exposes Kerry as somewhat anti-American because you like him, and so it goes…
YOu’ve compared apples to oranges. Remember, the DUI is true, the “film” – shown as “news” – was misconstrued (so i hear…has anyone seen it?) and is NOT news.[/quote]
Misconstrued? How? I saw it. While I don’t think it’s news, it certainly isn’t the creative tale that Mr. Moore spun. It’s basicaly an opinion piece. I don’t think it should be presented as news though. It’s not misconstrued, just opinionated. We are talking about “Stolen Honor” correct?
Lumpa, I’ve concluded that you are an idiot.
Goodnight.