[quote]ZEB wrote:
TheBodyGuard wrote:
Left him behind!!?? That is an incredible statement. What you term “left behind” is actually just a bunch of average to begin with fighters finally bringing their submission game up. In the final analysis, that’s all it is - guys have learned to fight and defend themselves on the ground - there have ALWAYS been strikers, stand up fighters. Shit, the athletes aren’t even better conditioned - not many of them can go the distance w/o gassing b/c 9 out of 10, with a twist on dan john’s favorite saying, look like tarzan but fight like jane. Hughes is strong yes, but strength, as you SHOULD be aware from rolling with Royce, is NOT an issue over proper technique. Hughes stand up would get him out of an amateur boxing match. He is an above average wrestler but are you going to sell me that his submission skills are there with Royce?
Okay, I think I know where you are coming from. However, I want you to consider these facts:
- When Royce ruled the UFC no one and I mean NO ONE understood ground fighting! Hence he had his way with all of them as soon as the fight hit the ground. And keep in mind while Dan Severon didn’t understand submissions he was a very good wrestler and it took Royce 15:00 to submit him. That should prove that big strong wrestlers (with little else) can give Royce trouble.
Now add this to the equation: All of the world class grapplers now understand submissions. I’m not saying that they are as good as Royce Gracie at Submission, but they know enough to stay out of trouble and, or counter a move that comes their way. And in many cases their skills do rival the Gracies!
By the way do you know how the last three Hughes matches ended? He SUBMITTED ALL OF THEM: One armbar, one choke and one Kimura! That my friend demonstrates a very good understanding of submission techniques!
- Royce has been away from the UFC for approximately 9 years! That’s not 9 months brother, it’s 9 long years. Do you think his skills have gotten better compared to the rest of the field? Not hardly!
How many fights has Hughes had in the Octagon over the past 8 years? That would be 42 fights winning all of them but 4! (2 losses very early on)
In other words, while the “ring rust” has been attaching itself to Royce at a steady rate. Matt has done nothing but polish his art and get better with each fight.
The fights or Jiu-Jitsu matches that Royce has had since leaving the UFC have been few and quite unspectacular. Remember the Walid Ismal (sp) fiasco? Royce was choked unconscious! And then there was his loss to Sakuraba in Pride. Of course Sakurba went through several Gracie’s like crap through a goose. But that’s another argument.
What has Royce Gracie done over the past 9 years that would lead you to believe that he is even as good as he was back in 97’? But then again, most of us know that he has to actually be BETTER than he was in the mid 90’s to defeat Matt Hughes.
- Let’s do a quick analysis of what it takes to win, and make a comparison.
SKILL
Stand up:
You stated that Hughes stand up skills are not all that great. I agree, they are not as good as most at his level. However what does this really mean in a head to head match with Royce Gracie? Have you ever seen Royce’s stand up skills? I have and if you would rank Hughes skills just below ametuer boxers then Royce’s would be somewhere around High School level. This is not a put down. The Gracies were never known for their stand up striking ability.
I’ve been punched and kicked by Gracie and while it doesn’t feel like a swedish massage, I shudder to think of the difference between his punches and Matt Hughes strikes.
(I will say that Gracie has a sneaky high face kick and if he gets lucky it might work…)
Stand up game: Hughes all the way!
Ground Game:
I know, I know the Gracies invented the ground game. But, remember one important factor; Hughes is a world class wrestler! In fact, he was a 4 time collegiate wrestling champion Division one. And was actually on the Olympic team. You don’t get much better than that. And while he may not have grown up with submissions the way Royce did, he has proven over the past 8 years and 42 fights winning all but 4, and 20 by submission that he is more than capable of mixing it up with Royce on the ground skill wise.
Ground Game: Equal.
A quick look at some other aspects of what it takes to win:
Strength: I don’t think that you or anyone else is ready to say that Royce is even in the same league with Hughes when it comes to strength and power.
Speed: Are you ready to say that Hughes lightning fast take downs are slower than Gracies moves? Not hardly. What drives a persons moves (besides skill obviously) muscle!
Stamina: Have you ever seen Hughes sucking wind after one or two rounds? No, he is supremely conditioned. I will admit that Gracie has excellent stamina as well. I’ll call this one a toss up.
I know how you feel Royce is most definitely the sentimental favorite. He WAS the UFC, no question. If not for Royce and his family we would not have MMA. I give Royce (and his family) a great deal of credit for taking martial arts to the next level and erasing for ever more the image of the mystical black belt fighter who can defeat all comers with lightning kicks and magical pressure points.
I am truly thankful that those days are over, for all but the most gullible, and of course children.
However, this is a new day my friend and the fighters of today are bigger (for their weight) stronger, faster, better trained and they are all well aware (at that level) of every aspect of martial arts, there are no more secrets on the ground! This erases the biggest component of the early Gracie arsenal.
Royce Gracie WILL be defeated by Matt Hughes. Whether he hangs on for 5 rounds (I assume it’s a recognized championship fight), or Hughes puts him to sleep early there is no way for the legend to live up to the reality! And the reality is, the game has passed him by!
Zeb
Nice analysis, respectful reply and, on the internet of all places, I appreciate it. However, just b/c it appears well thought out, don’t make it true 
First, Severn shouldn’t even figure into this analysis. As you pointed out later, Severn was much heavier and although I champion the FACT that technique reigns supreme over brute strength, all else equal and sometimes even unequal, big man beats little man.
Which brings me to Hughes strength. He is strong - yes. But he is not so large that he cannot be controlled by an expert like Royce. He is stronger, yes, but with the size similiarity, technique will carry that battle.
Next, knowing how to stay out of trouble also, to me, means not taking any chances for a submission or win of your own. It is irrelevent if you believe many other fighter’s skills rival the Gracies - Hughe’s skills on the ground DO NOT. And we are talking Hughes v. Royce.
It has already been pointed out that the three submissions you cite by Hughes were against suspect opponents. Hell, the one, I forget his name, had Hughes in a choke but couldn’t finish it. And I don’t credit that to Hughes’ skill, but due to the lack of his opponent’s skill. Once his opponent had that rear naked choke, Hughes should have been finished. It was more a failure by his opponent and his relative lack of skill than a victory by Hughes.
Royce has been away from the UFC - not fighting. He hasn’t exactly been “retired” or inactive. This isn’t a washed up boxer making yet another come back. He is still active and trains.
I don’t care how many fights Hughes has had - the competition is not so good. Therefore, his record is irrelevant. It’s not a knock in him; he fights who is there - but he’s not beating world class guys - he’s beating what the UFC has to offer.
I strongly disagree that Royce has to better than he was 9 years ago to beat Hughes…you are giving Hughes way too much credit. Hughes wins on strength and his considerable wrestling skills. His boxing and submission skills are amateurish and his win record is more a reflection of his opponents than his relative superiority.
An analysis of stand up skills is irrelevant. Matt will not win this fight on his feet - his stand up skills are worthless and Royce will not get in a punch out with him. So you are analyzing a so-called edge that will not be relevant in this fight. Royce can do enough on his feet to defend himself and that will be all that is required to defend Hughes’ “stand up” LOL.
Hughes is a world class wrestler - no doubt. But I remind you this isn’t a wrestling match. He can’t win this fight with a pin or wrestling points Although these skills are arguably valuable - I can’t see Hughes getting a submission; for one, he isn’t skilled enough. Ground and pound perhaps? I don’t think so; I think Royce is too skilled in the guard. The submissions Hughes has in his resume, the recent ones especially, were against lesser fighters as already pointed out. The Riggs submission was laughable - Riggs was terrible. Royce will not be terrible. Edge; Royce.
Strength edge of course goes to Hughes but strength doesn’t win fights against a superior technician. Like it or not, Hughes wins his fights mostly on brute strength by man handling guys who cannot really defend themselves on the ground.
Speed? Largely irrelevant once they are on the ground. Hughes takes down Royce - so what? It’s what they do once they’re down there that counts and I’ll take Royce on the mat.
Royce is not my sentimental favorite - I’m not even sure he’ll win and not for the reasons you think. I am merely challenging this school of thought that Hughes will run thru him - I don’t see that happening. I am further challenging the analysis of so called internet experts that only watch the UFC, and now consider themselves “informed”, but have never had a real fight - by the way, a real fight is not you beating up someone smaller than you or less skilled - a real fight is fighting someone of equal size who knows how to fight back. Then, you can claim you were in a “fight”.
The bottom line is this; you can analyze these things until we’re blue in the face but at the end of the day, men are like dogs - until you put the two down for battle, you don’t know who will win. And that is the bottom line.
But I’m tickled by all this fan fare for Hughes; his so called skills are greatly exaggerated. Let’s go down the checklist:
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He has NO real stand up. I’ve seen women throw better and tighter punches.
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He’s an arrogant fuck and in the fight game, that’s enough to hate him.
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He’s a great wrestler; but this isn’t a wrestling match.
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His submission skills are below average period. Just b/c you submit someone of lesser skill, doesn’t elevate your relative skill.
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He is a physical specimen and strong. Yes. And the foregoing has really won his fights.
My best friend used to spar with the Gracies, at their request, all the time. I spar with him. Every single damn time I try to man handle him - we are close in size, but I am stronger, I make mistakes and get in trouble. BJJ is technique and leverage.
Unless Hughes can ground and pound Royce, I see a real tough match. But I’ll say again, until it happens - we don’t know - anything is possible and likely.