A nice sensible, Dave Meltzer penned, LA Times piece on Boxing vs MMA.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/boxing/la-spw-mmacol3may03,1,6612449.story?coll=la-headlines-sports-boxing&ctrack=1&cset=true
[quote]Boxing vs. MMA? Everyone can win
By Dave Meltzer, Special to The Times
11:30 PM PDT, May 3, 2007
The prevailing news story in this week of Oscar De La Hoya vs. Mayweather, is that this is boxing’s last stand, and that MMA, and more particularly, the UFC, is taking over.
Some decry it as savagery replacing sport. Some grudgingly admit it is a more organized promotion serving its fan base better while taking advantage of an industry that has screwed itself up. Some see it as a reality that a real fight entails more than just punching, and once UFC got television, more and more people would figure it out. Some welcome the change. Some refuse to understand anything new. Some hate that a sport that has been a significant part of our culture for more than a century has competition from something that a few years ago wasn’t considered a sport, and one that has barely a decade of history, much of it being underground.
But the real story of combat sports over the next year, and the next decade, isn’t nearly so simple.
If you attend live boxing and live MMA, they have separate fan bases. Both will live and die based on an ability to produce good television, constantly create new stars, and by presenting the matches people want to see with those stars. But both can thrive, and both can falter, simultaneously. The test if they were truly eating the audience of the other was already proven back on Nov. 18, when both groups presented a major PPV event head-to-head. When Manny Pacquoia vs. Erik Morales and Matt Hughes vs. Georges St. Pierre took place on the same date, both events did the numbers expected.
Boxing, to its detriment, has an older fan base, and aside from the blowout night this week where boxing gets back on the front pages, it has for years been carried by the Latino community in the Southwest. At the grassroots level, when you attend boxing, the characters in the crowd make you feel like you are taking a trip back to the 70s. UFC is stronger with younger viewers, and has made it easier to see bigger name current fighters on television with endless weekly hours of taped fights on Spike TV. It has taken major media strides in the last year, but it has many more to go. Most newspapers won’t cover the next UFC even though Chuck Liddell vs. Quinton Jackson will do probably one of the five biggest PPV numbers of 2007 in any genre. Most television stations won’t be talking about it the next day in their sportscasts. But things move slowly, as 18 months ago, almost no newspapers or TV stations would get anywhere near it, and slowly, coverage has increased where you can expect the results that night on ESPN.
MMA also has a lot of hurdles. In a perfect world in both sports, there would be true world champions and all the top contenders would be in line. Among MMA’s secrets is it’s as fractured as boxing. There are countless organizations with countless championships. The UFC titles are the best known, because they have the strongest television coverage and a monopoly on the biggest names known in North America. But not only are there other champions, but the UFC power base of Lorenzo & Frank Fertitta and Dana White are presiding over two other organizations, the Pride Fighting Championships and World Extreme Cagefighting, with separate rosters and their own champions. They have the power to put the champions against each other, and when the other groups are established to the public, Super Bowl-like matches have been talked about.
One of the biggest hurdles is the sport itself. It can be a blessing at times, like when Randy Couture beat Tim Sylvia, or a curse, like when Gabriel Gonzaga beat Mirko Cro Cop, that upsets are going to be more prevalent in this sport than boxing. When you get to the top level, everyone has some aspect of his game better than his opponent, whether it be his wrestling, boxing, kickboxing, submissions, experience or conditioning. As the depth of the talent pool increases, so do the number of upsets. And it’s not just imposing your strength. The nature of the beast allows for things to happen that don’t in boxing.
In the Georges St. Pierre vs. Matt Serra match on April 7 in Houston, where Serra, an 8-to-1 underdog, won the welterweight championship from someone who many tabbed the perfect modern fighter, he simply connected with a hard punch with small gloves. In a boxing match when St. Pierre went down, he’d have had an eight count to recover. It’s not unusual to see an underdog floor a champion early as a wake-up call, and the more skilled champion regains his bearings to win. That can also happen in MMA. But in this instance, there was no recovery time after the knockdown, as Serra continued to hit him and St. Pierre was done in the first round.
But now what on paper figured to be UFC’s three biggest money matches of 2007, St. Pierre vs. Matt Hughes, Couture vs. Cro Cop and the winner of that match possibly against Chuck Liddell (provided he were to get past Quinton Jackson, which like every big fight, is hardly a lock) are out the window. For a fan of the sport of MMA, it makes it more exciting. For a fan who waits to see only big matches, the wait just got a lot longer.
The De La Hoya vs. Mayweather dynamic is based partly on the fact that De La Hoya has been on top for years and is facing an ultimate challenge from an unbeaten fighter. You are unlikely to ever get a 37-0 fighter in MMA, and you never will in UFC, where fighters at the main-event level are usually matched up with people who have the ability to beat them. Parity isn’t great when you want to do 1,000,000 buys on PPV. But with so many ways to win, and so many ways to lose, parity at the top level is seemingly inevitable. But you can only do those numbers only with superstars and grudge matches.
Whether the audience is willing to accept that St. Pierre or Cro Cop, or Liddell if he gets beat, are still big stars after first-round stoppage losses is, in the long run, one of its biggest long-term tests. Another is whether too much product on television will entice more fans, or burn out the audience. Last year was filled with constant talk of shockingly high numbers when it came to ratings and PPV. This year, with far more hours of programming, plus countless new companies trying to jump on a hot trend, there is no such talk. A major UFC event still can beat the NBA playoffs or NASCAR in Males 18-34, but it’s not going to be beating the World Series in October, like it did last year.
If we look at UFC’s biggest money players, the conclusion you come to is that its long-term is based on its ability to create a new generation of stars as popular as the one currently on top. For the stars of 2006, Couture is almost 44, and has popularity from his consistent ability to rebound after losses, but he can’t be expected to be a factor much longer. Liddell is 37, but his drawing power is based on his knockout power and that the new fan base knows he has lost, but has never actually seen it. Ken Shamrock and Royce Gracie, who drew huge numbers last year, will likely never be back in a UFC main event. Tito Ortiz, St. Pierre, Forrest Griffin, Matt Hughes, Rich Franklin, Diego Sanchez and B.J. Penn, the other stars of last year, are all trying to rebound to reclaim their spot after major losses. Mirko Cro Cop, Japan’s human highlight reel, had the style and charisma to make him the best shot to rapidly jump to the head of the class. But now he’s best known by U.S. fans as being on the wrong end of someone else’s highlight reel. The turnover at the top is quicker than sports fans are used to.
On paper, you can say Matt Serra is a great talker who can be pushed as an overachiever. Josh Koscheck is a brilliant wrestler, but has to overcome a mentality from wrestling based on winning by points as opposed to being entertaining. Gabriel Gonzaga may be the biggest test of all. He just beat Cro Cop and will be favored against Couture when they meet on Aug. 25. If he becomes champion, the public takes to him as a star, and his title matches prove to be big draws, then UFC can survive and thrive in a world where upsets will become a regular thing.
It doesn’t matter what happens to boxing on Saturday, or after Saturday, and whether boxing or pro wrestling (which is probably more legitimate competition with UFC due to their similar target audience) have banner years or terrible years. UFC’s role in a changing sports world will live or die based on the company’s ability to market new stars, and the public’s willingness to accept new stars, and that big stars are going to lose, and not write them off.
Dave Meltzer is the creator and author of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, a leading publication covering pro wrestling and MMA. For more information: www.wrestlingobserver.com[/quote]