If you have pretty good genetics getting to 10% not too rough. The real challenge is passing deeper into the single digits. I felt it was very painful. The only times I wasn’t aching from hunger was when eating, when working out, and when sleeping.
IMO 16 weeks is not enough time. That may be enough time to get lean enough to START a prep. Unless you’re willing to do a pretty extreme cut and be pretty uncomfortable I’d shoot for a later show.
I never took that approach. You need to get as close to comfortable on the stage as is possible. Anxiety is your enemy on stage. It will make you look flatter than you are. I typically did a tuneup show before my targeted show every year. I did at least three shows a year. The stage was a familiar place for me.
If i can’t make it by then i plan on doing a later show. Im already 2 months in. Itll be my first so im not expecting perfection. From what ive seen, some of the newer NPC physique guys look like melted butter and look like they just picked up a weight 6 months before the show. Ive been weight training since 14 YO and have a decent amount of muscle compared to some guys. I just need to carve it out. Lol
I decided to do a little math for funsies and to give some context beyond just some randos opinion on the internet. Typically I use a 2:1 ratio for fat loss to lean body mass loss. I got this from a CT article awhile back. Even assuming you lose zero muscle mass, this means losing approximately 1lb of water for every 2lb of fat, which in my experience has been pretty dead on.
Also, assuming you’re 20% bodyfat (which is generous considering you have little to no separation in your arms despite using very generous downlighting.) So we have bodyweight = 250, fat weight = 50. Say you are targeting 8% bodyfat (which still isn’t lean enough for stage IMO). Then you’ll get the algebraic equation:
0.08 = (50 - f) / (250 - 1.5*f)
where f is fat loss. 1.5f is total weight loss, because we got to account for water, glycogen, and all LBM loss. When you solve this you find f = ~34 lb, which means you have to lose about 50lb just to hit 8%. That is going to be very rough in 16 weeks. And that’s not even giving yourself time to fine tune once you hit your target body percentage. It’s usually nice to have at least 4 weeks of at least feeling lean enough, but working on not looking so flat anymore while working on “detailing” in the gym.
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For sure, you look great, but I’m just trying to offer an outside perspective to help with expectations and not overstress yourself for your first show. That would suck to burn yourself out instead of coasting in a little slower feeling the best you can.
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Thanks for the honesty!
In my opinion you should do this show. Get in the best shape you can be and see how it goes.
Some might say to me, “That’s easy for you to say.” And it is. The first contest (1970) I did there were 15 contestants and that was before height or weight classes. They scored all contestants. I was 15th place. Yes, last place.
I have never feared not winning. But every contest is a learning opportunity. I did a lot of contests and did poorly in quite a few, but in the three decades I competed I won over 70 trophies.
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100% . I was trying not to be brutally honest when saying…
I think you’re correct in the 35-50lb range to look like you belong on stage. To me that’s too drastic for 16 weeks in which I’d want to target 1.5lbs per week max to preserve muscle. But it’s his first show… go to learn not win.
YES!!
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TBH, this is what I saw with @robstein and @BrickHead when they lost for competition. I thought I was lean at 18%, lol, and dropped to 13% but it was not a losing fat deal - I lost a lot of muscle as well.
The maths is reals. Stage ready is death ready. 5%, your hormones are fucked up, you have to deal with electrolytes, minerals - it’s no joke. You can’t just lose weight.
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More likely 215, just saying. You look good, but getting to 5 or 6% is going to fuck you up big time.
I’d strongly recommend getting a coach for this.
You’ve got a fantastic starting point, but this is going to be brutal and going at it without a coach is a great way to fuck up your show.
Most coaches use coaches to prep for a show.
Yup. 100%. I tried a stage cut with a coach once and quit after going from 215-185. I still wasn’t near lean where I wanted to be and I’m also a huge pussy.
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IDK, my eye calipers are saying OP is closer to 15% than 20%. Dude looks pretty good to me.
Still, he will have to shed 20-30lbs (bench math) to get to stage lean ~5%
I enjoyed this comment from you a lot, tbh. I like reading people’s mathematical understanding of body recomposition.
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I thought so too at first, but lighting is very gracious in the photos where it’s not on stage. I’m mid to high teens right now but in my dim bedroom downlighting I look 10% in the mirror.
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Happy to offer insight.
@Bigjohn777 - don’t shoot for a weight, shoot for a look. For sure you’ve got more than 15 pounds to lose. Better pics would be ideal, I’m guessing maybe 25 pounds for physique.
It’s not about supplements at this point, your nutrition needs to be on point. Are you weighing and tracking food? I’m guessing not based on:
Again the body fat digit doesn’t matter, only how you look. Also, please take this just as transparent feedback, I doubt you’re losing BF and maintaining your weight. If you’re still at 250, you’re not losing fat. Those pics you posted also don’t do any justice with the top down lightning. Stage lightning is brutal, and from the front.
Do you have a coach? I would VERY STRONGLY encourage you to get one for a show prep.
Ultimately you should be sticking to your macros to the gram every single day, and making adjustments from there.
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I follow Sam Sulek. I think he bulked to 265 but just competed at 219.
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