Would You Take This Gamble?

@Yogi1 @ChickenLittle

We have worked hard to be in a good financial position and can currently afford to do what it takes. Obviously the money set a side was not saved for this situation and we have had to give up (hopefully just postpone though) other dreams of ours as affording both is not currently realistic.

I mean, you’re talking about monopoly money not real $$'s so…

:laughing:

I kid, I kid.

Depends on the prize, but I would rather put extra money into my IRA, personally. I’m not risking $6k+ unless it’s a damn good prize and that prize better pleasure me for $17k+…

Is it a successful marriage?

Tiocfaidh ar lá, a chara.

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Lol, I guess IRA does hold a different meaning across the pond…

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I feel I already have one of those, a second one would make things a little awkward.

Lol. I suppose it would.

So, 13k= 3 tries and a refund.

Which you can use for 2 more tries at 5K each and have 3K left over.

A 6th try would only be 2k more after the other 13K, which works out to just over 1k per try.

Thats how I would try to work it, if allowed.

My guess is a fertility treatment.

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This is a tough question to answer from an outside perspective, because the only person that really knows if the risk is worth it is you, and how important the results would be. Just my opinion, if you go through the “gamble” and don’t get the results you hoped for, and the money is gone, and you would still be able to know in your heart that it was worth the risk and you don’t regret it, then move forward.

If the prize is something more valuable than money, option 2 limits my ability to achieve the prize. I’d pick option 1 and play until I won, rather than only have 3 chances to play.

@SkyzykS when looking at it that way from a purely financial side it makes it seem the most cost effective option. Obviously this doesn’t take into account many other factors involved in the situation.

@robstein the nagging thought in my head that makes me keep rethinking is the refund after the 3 failures. Realistically you could keep trying after the 3 but many people would stop there. As mentioned above we are giving up another dream to achieve this one, the refund puts that back on the table as a consolation prize if we choose not to continue.

@T3hPwnisher thanks, for us in either situation it would be 3 tries then out.

If that’s the case it seems like while emotionally and mentally the effort would take it’s toll, but in the long run you’ll achieve one of your goals regardless. While the emotional and mental gauntlet you’ll go through will be significant, if the outcome of the gamble working out is worth giving up “Dream A”, then go for it.

With the refund thing I don’t see how you can not do it, especially if it is what I think it is. If it is…take the gamble, logically it makes sense. Odds are good, funds are there, opportunity has knocked…hard to pass up.

You have stated that you want to make a logical decision with your head instead of your heart, but you haven’t actually provided enough information for anybody here to help you with that. First, you haven’t been very specific about the odds of things working out after the first try. If the odds get worse every time you try, that is something that you need to quantify.

More importantly, you have to actually quantify the financial value of this thing. If you can’t do that, this will always be a heart decision(which is okay). If, as you say, it’s really more valuable than any amount of money, then the only thing that matters is minimizing the chance of not getting it. I gather from your responses that isn’t really the case. A interesting thought experiment here would be, “Is there an amount of money that you would take in return for never having this thing? How much?”

While it’s important that you may spend the money and not get it anyways, if you can tell me how much it’s worth in money and the probability of success of each plan, it’s a simple calculation to say which path maximizes your value. That will allow you to make this a head only decision. However, you have to remember that garbage in is garbage out.

Also, you have to accept that playing the correct move in a game of chance doesn’t mean you will win every time. Otherwise it would be a game of skill. If you can’t get past this, then trying to make a head only decision is not right for you.

Ultimately, unless you put numbers on all of these things, it will always come down to how you feel about X.

Yeah. I’ve seen something like this with a few couples and heard some stories about how difficult this can be. My wifes sis was having difficulty carrying. They tried several times with no luck, were becoming dispirited and finally gave up.

Thats when it happened.

I’ve heard that the stress and pressure of it really complicates things, but once everyone relaxes- it just happens. Many women take this as the defining act of their existence and gender, which is a whole lot of pressure and stress to “perform” under.

Heck, my wife had a real schism when our son became allergic to breast milk. She took it as an affront to her womanhood and value as a person. Delicate doesn’t even scratch the surface of the emotions involved with these things.

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This is what I figured it was as well, currently going through all of this stuff…it’s…hectic, to say the least…

Yeah it can be really tough. I’m the problem in our situation, and it’s not even a possibility for it to accidentally happen. we have been lucky enough to have been successful once though which is unbelievable.

@Despade hope everything works out for you. If you want to talk about any of it or have any questions then I’m happy to talk about anything.

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So, how much money do you have in savings?

If I’m Jeff Bezos, I’ll play all day. If all I have is 5,001 pounds to my name, no thanks.

Hey, much appreciated. Yeah it is quite the process. If this happens to be the gamble your talking about, best of luck to you and yours!

Edit: I’ve done the whole “logic and reason” bit, as well…for us it comes down to the feels, tough to put a price on it.