There are a bunch of recent reports from various places that most of the cases now are in people under 40, people are still dying and more are being infected but from the looks of things the ratio of deaths to infections is well below what it was before and as long as it continues to mostly infect that age group it should continue to go downwards. As for schools opening, most teachers are not elderly and kids are lower risk than adults so while I don’t realistically see this coming to a sudden end too soon, I also don’t think that there will be massive spike in deaths or severe infections. If there is any sort of second wave it will be mostly in terms of infections rather than deaths, unless of course something goes drastically wrong.
Then do an advanced search and look only for Levitt’s statements with the March 2020 timestamp.
This statement is bullshit, as internet remembers everything. In March he was claiming that the pandemic was basically “over” in the US and that it will fare better than China and Italy.
Also, another reason why I think is that the guys is a POS is that he’s built a cottage industry around this, with his son doing the dirty work of posting on Twitter about deep state conspiracies, thus enabling him a constant media presence in certain media circles.
Probably yes. But to use a sports analogy, if you’re trailing in the first half, it’s less likely that you’ll mount a huge comeback by the end of the game.
Something I’ve been wondering about the last couple of days:
I understand that a majority of you do not believe in herd immunity under these circumstances, but take a look at what has happened here in NYS. Initially, we led the nation in terms of infections and deaths. Now, we’re the lowest. And we continue to remain the lowest. ~500 cases per day and ~6 deaths per day, give or take. Has herd immunity been reached here or is it simply the fact that due to the increase in violent crime, protests/rioting/looting, covid-19, dislike of Andrew Cuomo, etc. people are leaving NYS in droves?
“Natural” herd immunity takes years to happen, if it does, hence the need for vaccines. If a natural herd immunity was a such a certainty then we never would have needed vaccines in the first place. Note how some diseases are appearing again. It’s because of people who refuse to get vaccines for themselves or their children.
The Black Death stayed around for several years, killing around half of the population of Europe. Was herd immunity achieved in the end? The plague kept returning for centuries after the first outbreak. It is still around today.
The people leaving are lower risk than the ones staying.
Good, they will vote in person then. Fauci said it was fine…
It’s probably both. I am sure there is a component of herd immunity and it sure doesn’t hurt that there are a million or so fewer people.
My problem is that they leave the shithole and bring the politics that made it a shithole with them. They can go to California, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington. They need to leave the rest of the nation alone.
My red state is doing fine and I want to keep it that way.
I do have a question though about NY. A lot of people have praised the NY response as one of the best. What did they do right, vs. everybody else? 'cause from where I sit, it doesn’t look very successful.
We believe in herd immunity in general. If you mean by “these circumstances” the relatively small percentage of the country that is known to be infected, then no that not enough of a population to develop any widespread herd immunity. Further, herd immunity is not guaranteed to happen or to be permanent for ANY new disease although preliminary data coming from trials is mildly encouraging on that front for covid.
My bet is people leaving and staying in. If the scenes that drove people to stay are not there, there’s not any reason to go out. Especially with big spikes in violence.
The great thing is that you’re obviously objective, and un-biased in your perspective(s).
Again this seems pretty optimistic. We’re still seeing 1K deaths or over consistently in the US. We know
deaths trail infections and we are still feeling the effects then from the last spike here. So with our cases trending down again we can assume deaths will follow of course. But we were still seeing upwards of 600 regularly.
Also absolutely zero reason to assume that if schools open in full and cases skyrocket that deaths won’t jump big time as well. The vast majority of kids won’t die and the vast majority of teachers won’t either. But lmao if you don’t think some will and lmao if you don’t think that won’t be bringing it to vulnerable populations.
But my point was his “prediction” is already wrong to an extent and trending towards very wrong. I didn’t look up the quote myself so I will assume it was accurate as copy pasted and his assumption that we will only have 170-175 K deaths is already wrong.
What can I say, maybe I’m a bit optimistic about this nowadays. We can’t accurately predict the future and you are right that there will be more infections as a result of school reopening, but I just don’t think it’s going to be anything close to where it was at its peak. Let’s hope I’m right.
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If we’re talking about deaths per day I would say it’s incredibly unlikely as we are treating things much better. But I’m not sure as an American I really see a lot of optimism if I’m saying “well I doubt we will see 2k deaths daily we are doing great at just 1100!”
I mean I suppose that’s much better of course but it’s hard for me to look at that as optimism.
It’s not great but it’s unlikely to get worse than it has already been. Sometimes bad things happen and you just have to deal with it and move on, as we have discussed over and over there isn’t a straightforward solution that doesn’t have other serious side effects so what else can you really do?
I was speaking to the prediction posted that deaths in the coming months weren’t going to reach much more and that’s already been proven wrong in the US.
I’m all for optimism and think we have positive news on multiple fronts however the simple fact is the US has been ravaged by the thing and nothing really suggests that we are going to see deaths get close to disappearing anytime soon. I’m not sure why on August 2 he would make a prediction that low which is already wrong.
This is hard to dispute.
You’re right, that guy’s predictions don’t make sense. All I’m saying is that while it’s not over yet, it does appear that we are past the worst. The prediction doesn’t sound right, but maybe it’s not as far off as a lot of people think.
Well if his prediction was that we would see 170,000 maybe 175,000 deaths in the coming months then that’s pretty far off if that interview was on August 2. The only way it’s not far off is if Covid deaths essentially stop right now.
Anybody care to tackle the question on what the state of New York did right, in response to the pandemic? 'cause NYC appears to be an utter failure currently.
I’m referring to predictions and fears from the other end of the spectrum that we are going to have a 2nd wave that is several times worse and that kind of thing. Now I’m the one making predictions, but I predict that while that guy you are talking about is definitely wrong, he isn’t as wrong as the others expecting things to get worse and worse.
Elect Bill De Blasio as Mayor of Gotham.
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