Warning! Sell Stocks Now!

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
41

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

I know you guys are trolling me, which is fine. Been there, done that.[/quote]

I don’t troll.

[quote]So, TB, which stocks are you buying? Since the market is overvalued by at least 40% and dividend yield is at just about a 100 year low and the PE is 15 (mostly derived from financials and TARP money) which is twice the typical bear market bottom (see first chart), I’m curious as to what stocks can overcome all those things. Let us in on what you’ve bought!

Be a true pimp.[/quote]

Lots of stocks in various sectors, primarily ones of companies I think that are poised to be at the vanguard of an M&A boom. This market has exposed the frailties of a great many businesses, and those with reasonably strong balance sheets and smart management will be in hunting mode.

Thus, I’d like to be invested in them prior to this acquisition season.

Smart businesses (and businesspeople) know how to make money and be strategic in any market. Assets in this weakened market are cheap, and smart acquirers are primed to add to their businesses. And wise investors are buying the stocks of smart acquirers.

Look into it. Paranoia and conspiracy theories are no way to manage your money.[/quote]

Where is the ‘conspiracy thory’ in ANYTHING I posted in this thread? All the charts are about extremely low dividend yields and extreme overvaluation of assets. Those low yields and overvaluations have very high correlation with market tops. Did you even look at the charts?

Wow, I just realized I wasted my time just typing THIS. Good fuckin’ luck, dude.

42

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

I know you guys are trolling me, which is fine. Been there, done that.[/quote]

I don’t troll.

[quote]So, TB, which stocks are you buying? Since the market is overvalued by at least 40% and dividend yield is at just about a 100 year low and the PE is 15 (mostly derived from financials and TARP money) which is twice the typical bear market bottom (see first chart), I’m curious as to what stocks can overcome all those things. Let us in on what you’ve bought!

Be a true pimp.[/quote]

Lots of stocks in various sectors, primarily ones of companies I think that are poised to be at the vanguard of an M&A boom. This market has exposed the frailties of a great many businesses, and those with reasonably strong balance sheets and smart management will be in hunting mode.

Thus, I’d like to be invested in them prior to this acquisition season.

Smart businesses (and businesspeople) know how to make money and be strategic in any market. Assets in this weakened market are cheap, and smart acquirers are primed to add to their businesses. And wise investors are buying the stocks of smart acquirers.

Look into it. Paranoia and conspiracy theories are no way to manage your money.[/quote]

Stop all this talk of making money in the stock market in any way, shape, or form! Headhunter says it can’t be done and high school teachers who post on bodybuilding forums know best.

Seriously, you’ve made many valid points. I tend to purchase stocks for the long-haul. I know that certain companies in key sectors will be stronger 5-10 years down the road and right now they’re incredibly cheap.
[/quote]

Nowhere did I say it can’t be done. I said you may have the luck of the stupid, that probability is against you. The vast majority of stocks are overvalued. If you can find those which will beat the odds, more power to you.

Bye!

43

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:

I take it you are still waiting for the nasdaq to hit over 5000 again too huh.[/quote]

Nope, I generally don’t do a lot of tech.

No offense - but I have just about zero interest in financial advice from someone of your age and experience.[/quote]

He does seem like a good kid but he does have that self righteous confidence of the sophomore philosophy guy. Once he said his investment plan was to put all of his eggs in the silver basket you have to discount everything he says about the subject.

I wouldn’t surprsie me to see a move down to the 862 levels on the S&P but I’d be a buyer there.

44

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
Yes, please sell now. Because I am buying - and I’d appreciate the downward pressure helping me get (more) good deals.[/quote]

I know you guys are trolling me, which is fine. Been there, done that.

So, TB, which stocks are you buying? Since the market is overvalued by at least 40% and dividend yield is at just about a 100 year low and the PE is 15 (mostly derived from financials and TARP money) which is twice the typical bear market bottom (see first chart), I’m curious as to what stocks can overcome all those things. Let us in on what you’ve bought!

Be a true pimp.

[/quote]

Okay I’ll play, personally I wouldn’t buy until we see a dip below 875 on the S&P but if I had to buy I’d buy Dupont/ Monsanto take your pick, Nucor, CPL, Joy Global, FCX, ABB or RIo and I’d make a 20% insurance investment in GLD as insurance.

45

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
Yes, please sell now. Because I am buying - and I’d appreciate the downward pressure helping me get (more) good deals.[/quote]

I know you guys are trolling me, which is fine. Been there, done that.

So, TB, which stocks are you buying? Since the market is overvalued by at least 40% and dividend yield is at just about a 100 year low and the PE is 15 (mostly derived from financials and TARP money) which is twice the typical bear market bottom (see first chart), I’m curious as to what stocks can overcome all those things. Let us in on what you’ve bought!

Be a true pimp.

[/quote]

Okay I’ll play, personally I wouldn’t buy until we see a dip below 875 on the S&P but if I had to buy I’d buy Dupont/ Monsanto take your pick, Nucor, CPL, Joy Global, FCX, ABB or RIo and I’d make a 20% insurance investment in GLD as insurance.[/quote]

Wall Street Journal…"1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That’s well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you’re getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you’re not?

Uh, oh, TB will call it a conspiracy website…

46

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

Wall Street Journal…"1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That’s well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you’re getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you’re not?

Uh, oh, TB will call it a conspiracy website…[/quote]

Nope, and I’m not especially bullish across the board right now. But the economy is in a period of weakness right now, and in such periods, there are always good buy oppportuties in those periods.

Despite the overvaluation, etc., there’s no reason to “sell it all!!! Buy gold and run for the hills!!!”. When the market dips again - and it will - I’ll be buying even more.

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. Reactionaries don’t play this game very well - and I am happy to take their money.

47

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

Wall Street Journal…"1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That’s well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you’re getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you’re not?

Uh, oh, TB will call it a conspiracy website…[/quote]

Nope, and I’m not especially bullish across the board right now. But the economy is in a period of weakness right now, and in such periods, there are always good buy oppportuties in those periods.

Despite the overvaluation, etc., there’s no reason to “sell it all!!! Buy gold and run for the hills!!!”. When the market dips again - and it will - I’ll be buying even more.

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. Reactionaries don’t play this game very well - and I am happy to take their money.
[/quote]

I deal in probabilities. If 80% of stocks will be going down, the general expectation would be that roughly 80% of the stocks in your portfolio will go down. As I said to Zeb, if you are smart enough to beat true players and be on the 20%, wonderful.

To increase chances of at least staying even (I do this), I hold the highest quality highest dividend stocks. Right now I have Eli Lilly, Exxon, Coca-Cola, Kimberly-Clark, McDonald’s and several others like this; so I don’t ever get totally out of the markets. About half of our money though is in silver and gold miners (since 2001, made a fking mint).

I would still advise most, who tend to bet on the wildest crap imaginable, to sell and stay away until PE < 10 and dividend yield >4%.

I estimate that in 10 years I and my wife will be about where we are now.

Good luck.

48

[quote]ZEB wrote:
I understand, you’re not really interested in investing. What you’re going to do is post ad nauseam about a topic you know nothing about. You read an article, and you’re all fired up, that’s nice.

You’ve read my challenge.[/quote]

"Top Money Managers’ Holdings Reveal Gold Most Popular Position
August 17, 2010 10:00 AM ET
Last night after the close of trading, the holdings of money managers like George Soros, John Paulson, and Bill Ackman were released in 13F filings with the SEC. Below is a look at the holdings of some of the world’s most popular hedge fund managers.

Pershing Squareâ??s Bill Ackman made some notable changes. First he added a new position in Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Citigroup (C). Ackman also added to positions in Kraft (KFT), sold most of his Yum Brands (YUM) positions, and made minor sales to his famous Target (TGT) position. According to filings, Pershing Square also has positions in Borders Group (BGP), Corrections Corp of America (CXW) and General Growth Properties (GGP).

According to filings by Soros Fund Management, which is run by George Soros, the fund owns large positions in the Gold Trust (GLD), as well as a position in Yahoo (YHOO), Weatherford (WFT), Novagold (NGD), Monsanto (MON), Massey Energy (MEE), Kinross Gold (KGC), CVS Caremark (CVS), and Aflac (AFL). Soros also has large convertible bond positions.

John Paulson – who hasnâ??t had much success since his bets on the collapse of the mortgage market – had his 13F made available for public viewing last night. Paulsonâ??s biggest position is still the Gold Trust ETF. He owns 31.5 million shares. Among his top holdings, Paulson still has Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup, and Hartford (HIG). Paulson added a number of new positions during the second quarter. He purchased Exxon Mobil (XOM), Sybase (SY), Mariner Energy (ME), Alcon (ACL), Popular (BPOP), and finally Goldman Sachs (GS).

To conclude, there was another extremely large buyer of the Gold Trust ETF during the second quarter: Eton Park, run by Eric Mindirch. His fund loaded up $800 million of GLD during the second quarter. According to filings, Eton Park didn’t have a position in GLD at the end of the first quarter.

Shockingly once again, GLD was the most popular holding among fund managers. Crowded trade or not, the top money managers are all buying gold."

49

Sounds like it is time to get out of Dodge (gold).

I did not have opportunity to buy my puts today, but I did back into some more SDS. T

Tomorrow could be interesting.

50

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Sounds like it is time to get out of Dodge (gold).

I did not have opportunity to buy my puts today, but I did back into some more SDS. T

Tomorrow could be interesting. [/quote]

They (the big boys) are waiting for the public to panic and pile in. I’ll wait with them.

51

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Sounds like it is time to get out of Dodge (gold).

I did not have opportunity to buy my puts today, but I did back into some more SDS. T

Tomorrow could be interesting. [/quote]

They (the big boys) are waiting for the public to panic and pile in. I’ll wait with them.
[/quote]

HH, have you ever read any legitimate books on market timing? Do you realize how difficult it is? My point is that buying stocks over the long haul, periodically, places you in a better position to profit.

whipping yourself up into frenzy trying to interpret various charts and graphs usually gets regular Joe’s like you and I, into trouble.

I’m really trying to be helpful, I’d hate to see you make a financial mistake which may haunt you the rest of your life. I know about how old you are and your potential earning years are limited, unlike some of the young bucks around here.

Zeb

52

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Sounds like it is time to get out of Dodge (gold).

I did not have opportunity to buy my puts today, but I did back into some more SDS. T

Tomorrow could be interesting. [/quote]

They (the big boys) are waiting for the public to panic and pile in. I’ll wait with them.
[/quote]

HH, have you ever read any legitimate books on market timing? Do you realize how difficult it is? My point is that buying stocks over the long haul, periodically, places you in a better position to profit.

whipping yourself up into frenzy trying to interpret various charts and graphs usually gets regular Joe’s like you and I, into trouble.

I’m really trying to be helpful, I’d hate to see you make a financial mistake which may haunt you the rest of your life. I know about how old you are and your potential earning years are limited, unlike some of the young bucks around here.

Zeb
[/quote]

Timing the market, as in indexes is pretty hard, timing individual stocks is nowhere near as difficult though. You probably won’t get the absolute top or bottom but with in 10% isn’t unheard of.

53

All you need to know is which way the data is going, but figuring out what to do with it is more dificult i guess. We havent had a positive data surprise in weeks that I can recall, but I can rattle off a half dozen big misses - GDP (to be revised to ~1%), Richmond Fed, Philly Fed, CPI, Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales, Nonfarm Employment cchange, and I think the ISM missed, and thats without looking. EVERY “green shoot” has decelerated dramatically or reversed course.

ECRI leading indicator is way negative (has never gone to -10 and not had a recession), and its components are going to be more negative this week, yeild curve is going to all time flats, bond market priced for deflation. Retail mutual fund outflows is negative going back like 14 weeks straight to the tune of like 60 billion.

Credit keeps contracting and contracting. Savings rate going up (if we go back to pre-credit bubble savings rates, it will have a delevereging effect of $5.5 Trillion on the economy, and that is what will need to happen for the “Chinese demand will save us” fantasy to occur).

We are going to get a new round of quantitative easing and rumor is it will be $5 Trillion with a T. Then stocks will go up. However the market called Europes $1Trillion bluff and it only created a 2 day rally which was wiped out, so maybe not. Deleveraging is a powerful force.

Im just afraid of stocks going up for all the wrong reasons ie printing $5 Trillion causes the dollar to be worth its intrinsic value as green paper. Ive got cheap hedges for that, but the counterparties will likely declare force majure if i ever need them to pay out lol.

54

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Sounds like it is time to get out of Dodge (gold).

I did not have opportunity to buy my puts today, but I did back into some more SDS. T

Tomorrow could be interesting. [/quote]

They (the big boys) are waiting for the public to panic and pile in. I’ll wait with them.
[/quote]

HH, have you ever read any legitimate books on market timing? Do you realize how difficult it is? My point is that buying stocks over the long haul, periodically, places you in a better position to profit.

whipping yourself up into frenzy trying to interpret various charts and graphs usually gets regular Joe’s like you and I, into trouble.

I’m really trying to be helpful, I’d hate to see you make a financial mistake which may haunt you the rest of your life. I know about how old you are and your potential earning years are limited, unlike some of the young bucks around here.

Zeb
[/quote]

Timing the market, as in indexes is pretty hard, timing individual stocks is nowhere near as difficult though. You probably won’t get the absolute top or bottom but with in 10% isn’t unheard of.[/quote]

Not timing. Probabilities. When PE ratios are high and valuations are high, history suggests trouble ahead. Then the 10 year bond is yielding 2.5% before taxes. How long can that go on? When rates rise, dividends become relatively worth less. Why risk when 10 year bonds pay a good rate?

This market is headed for 6000 DJI and 600 SP500. Most stocks will drop along with these averages.

My argument is actually quite simple – sell overvalued things.

55

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Sounds like it is time to get out of Dodge (gold).

I did not have opportunity to buy my puts today, but I did back into some more SDS. T

Tomorrow could be interesting. [/quote]

They (the big boys) are waiting for the public to panic and pile in. I’ll wait with them.
[/quote]

HH, have you ever read any legitimate books on market timing? Do you realize how difficult it is? My point is that buying stocks over the long haul, periodically, places you in a better position to profit.

whipping yourself up into frenzy trying to interpret various charts and graphs usually gets regular Joe’s like you and I, into trouble.

I’m really trying to be helpful, I’d hate to see you make a financial mistake which may haunt you the rest of your life. I know about how old you are and your potential earning years are limited, unlike some of the young bucks around here.

Zeb
[/quote]

Timing the market, as in indexes is pretty hard, timing individual stocks is nowhere near as difficult though. You probably won’t get the absolute top or bottom but with in 10% isn’t unheard of.[/quote]

Not timing. Probabilities. When PE ratios are high and valuations are high, history suggests trouble ahead. Then the 10 year bond is yielding 2.5% before taxes. How long can that go on? When rates rise, dividends become relatively worth less. Why risk when 10 year bonds pay a good rate?

This market is headed for 6000 DJI and 600 SP500. Most stocks will drop along with these averages.

My argument is actually quite simple – sell overvalued things.
[/quote]

I wouldn’t hold my breath on them reaching that level. It is possible but I would say unlikely. I would give you 800, but if it get much lower than that I think the bulls will come running in to start buying. That is the nature of our current market.

56

People are unpredictable and therefore investors cannot know what will happen to the market.

Buy productive assets that pay an income; do not worry about their valuation except in terms of some other tangible commodity (e.g., ounces of gold).

Buy gold, silver, oil and other commodities to hedge against currency inflation/devaluation.

Sell when the market is overbought; buy when the market is oversold.

Good luck, and remember: Uncertainty Is A Bitch!

57

With bond yields this low, either they flatten or rise. I doubt anyone will pay the government for the privelige of lending them money. If rates rise, the bonds will compete with stocks. Rising bond yields make stocks less attractive.

If the yield remains flat, it means economic activity is at a standstill, like it is now.

In either scenario, stocks look like poor investments. The only thing to do is buy something like Dogs of the Dow and hope investors chase their yields.

This market is goatfucked.

58

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
With bond yields this low, either they flatten or rise. I doubt anyone will pay the government for the privelige of lending them money. If rates rise, the bonds will compete with stocks. Rising bond yields make stocks less attractive.

If the yield remains flat, it means economic activity is at a standstill, like it is now.

In either scenario, stocks look like poor investments. The only thing to do is buy something like Dogs of the Dow and hope investors chase their yields.

This market is goatfucked.[/quote]

That is where you listen to guys like Bill Gross and find out what they are doing. Last I checked he was heavy into dividend yielding stocks like ATT and Verizon. Tomorrow though he could be switching back to bonds. Just depends on where the steady income is.

59

720×603 68.4 KB

Collapse of the Century…seriously…look at PE…div yield…largest bubble since 1929.

60

[quote]haney1 wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
With bond yields this low, either they flatten or rise. I doubt anyone will pay the government for the privelige of lending them money. If rates rise, the bonds will compete with stocks. Rising bond yields make stocks less attractive.

If the yield remains flat, it means economic activity is at a standstill, like it is now.

In either scenario, stocks look like poor investments. The only thing to do is buy something like Dogs of the Dow and hope investors chase their yields.

This market is goatfucked.[/quote]

That is where you listen to guys like Bill Gross and find out what they are doing. Last I checked he was heavy into dividend yielding stocks like ATT and Verizon. Tomorrow though he could be switching back to bonds. Just depends on where the steady income is.[/quote]

Bill Gross runs PIMCO, which runs a bunch of bond funds. Not sure he has opinions on stocks, and if he did he wouldnt let you front run him, but he would tell you to buy when he wants to offload!