Today was ridiculous. Irelands debt downgraded overnight. Durable goods at .3 on expectations of 2.3(?) (including ex-military -8.0 on expectations of .4). Homes number at 276k, lowest of all time i think, on expectations of 330k. Futures down 1% going into open and we close up on a rally at 3:30, when certain funds have to cover/rebalance for the day.
It could be a short squeeze off of support, but the Nikkei isnt saying it is. Things that make you go hmmmm…
Like “Hmmm must be the Presidents Working Group on Financial markets.”
[quote]milktruck wrote:
Today was ridiculous. Irelands debt downgraded overnight. Durable goods at .3 on expectations of 2.3(?) (including ex-military -8.0 on expectations of .4). Homes number at 276k, lowest of all time i think, on expectations of 330k. Futures down 1% going into open and we close up on a rally at 3:30, when certain funds have to cover/rebalance for the day.
It could be a short squeeze off of support, but the Nikkei isnt saying it is. Things that make you go hmmmm…
Like “Hmmm must be the Presidents Working Group on Financial markets.”[/quote]
Very true. But the game can only last so long.
I will use any strength we might see in the morning to further build my shorts. I feel a 300+ down day coming soon.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
With bond yields this low, either they flatten or rise. I doubt anyone will pay the government for the privelige of lending them money. If rates rise, the bonds will compete with stocks. Rising bond yields make stocks less attractive.
If the yield remains flat, it means economic activity is at a standstill, like it is now.
In either scenario, stocks look like poor investments. The only thing to do is buy something like Dogs of the Dow and hope investors chase their yields.
This market is goatfucked.[/quote]
That is where you listen to guys like Bill Gross and find out what they are doing. Last I checked he was heavy into dividend yielding stocks like ATT and Verizon. Tomorrow though he could be switching back to bonds. Just depends on where the steady income is.[/quote]
Bill Gross runs PIMCO, which runs a bunch of bond funds. Not sure he has opinions on stocks, and if he did he wouldnt let you front run him, but he would tell you to buy when he wants to offload![/quote]
Yes he does, a year ago though he was putting his money in the stocks I listed because the dividend yield was higher than what he wasa getting on bonds. As far as I know he is still invested in those and many other people jumped on the dividend bandwagon.
[quote]milktruck wrote:
Today was ridiculous. Irelands debt downgraded overnight. Durable goods at .3 on expectations of 2.3(?) (including ex-military -8.0 on expectations of .4). Homes number at 276k, lowest of all time i think, on expectations of 330k. Futures down 1% going into open and we close up on a rally at 3:30, when certain funds have to cover/rebalance for the day.
It could be a short squeeze off of support, but the Nikkei isnt saying it is. Things that make you go hmmmm…
Like “Hmmm must be the Presidents Working Group on Financial markets.”[/quote]
The market those was hovering all day inch towards positive ground. Honestly though look how little volume there has been for the past month. It doesn’t take much to move the needle in either direction.
Terrible advice. Why would anyone sell while stocks are low and likely (but far from certain) to get lower BEFORE they go UP. The time to BUY is nearing.
Haha yeah I need a discaimer for my terrible advice: I am just ranting with my tinfoil hat on, please DO NOT invest based on my advice and do your own due diligence. I put my money where my mouth is, but I am here 100% to banter about trading and the economy hoping to pick up opposing viewpoints and bludgeon others with my own in kind, not be a financial advisor in any sense.
I dont care if I go broke, but if someone else does because of me that makes my heart hurt. I live and breathe this stuff but cant bring myself to do most BS financial services lines of work where you pretend to know the future.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
With bond yields this low, either they flatten or rise. I doubt anyone will pay the government for the privelige of lending them money. If rates rise, the bonds will compete with stocks. Rising bond yields make stocks less attractive.
If the yield remains flat, it means economic activity is at a standstill, like it is now.
In either scenario, stocks look like poor investments. The only thing to do is buy something like Dogs of the Dow and hope investors chase their yields.
This market is goatfucked.[/quote]
That is where you listen to guys like Bill Gross and find out what they are doing. Last I checked he was heavy into dividend yielding stocks like ATT and Verizon. Tomorrow though he could be switching back to bonds. Just depends on where the steady income is.[/quote]
Bill Gross runs PIMCO, which runs a bunch of bond funds. Not sure he has opinions on stocks, and if he did he wouldnt let you front run him, but he would tell you to buy when he wants to offload![/quote]
Yes he does, a year ago though he was putting his money in the stocks I listed because the dividend yield was higher than what he wasa getting on bonds. As far as I know he is still invested in those and many other people jumped on the dividend bandwagon.[/quote]
Yeah youre right. He was investing his money, just not PIMCO funds.
Yeah income is king is what a lot of people are saying about equities. David Rosenberg has been saying it for a while, some Goldman guy just jumped on the theme. Makes sense to me.
[quote]jsbrook wrote:
Terrible advice. Why would anyone sell while stocks are low and likely (but far from certain) to get lower BEFORE they go UP. The time to BUY is nearing. [/quote]
Do you know what PE means? Dividend yield?
When PEs are high and Div yields are low, stocks are a bad bet. The risk is not worth the return.
[quote]jsbrook wrote:
Terrible advice. Why would anyone sell while stocks are low and likely (but far from certain) to get lower BEFORE they go UP. The time to BUY is nearing. [/quote]
Do you know what PE means? Dividend yield?
When PEs are high and Div yields are low, stocks are a bad bet. The risk is not worth the return.
Look at the charts and graphs provided.
[/quote]
Those are market-driven reasons to sell stocks, and not even particularly good ones. Better reasons to sell are when the company flounders because a fundamental change to the business plan or the stock is overalued. Sometimes it generally makes sense to rebalance your portfolio.
PEs are high and yields low because we are in a bad state right now. The economy will improve and the market will improve. People who do a huge stock dump right now will regret it. Different situation, I suppose, for those close to retirement or who genearally need money and can’t afford to wait to recoup losses. And if you can’t stand it if the stock markets falls hard and your dividend stocks go down in price, then yes, go with your gut and leave stocks alone.
I subscribe to the Buffet rule anyway. “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” Made him a lot of money. And did well by my family as far as investing.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
With bond yields this low, either they flatten or rise. I doubt anyone will pay the government for the privelige of lending them money. If rates rise, the bonds will compete with stocks. Rising bond yields make stocks less attractive.
If the yield remains flat, it means economic activity is at a standstill, like it is now.
In either scenario, stocks look like poor investments. The only thing to do is buy something like Dogs of the Dow and hope investors chase their yields.
This market is goatfucked.[/quote]
That is where you listen to guys like Bill Gross and find out what they are doing. Last I checked he was heavy into dividend yielding stocks like ATT and Verizon. Tomorrow though he could be switching back to bonds. Just depends on where the steady income is.[/quote]
Bill Gross runs PIMCO, which runs a bunch of bond funds. Not sure he has opinions on stocks, and if he did he wouldnt let you front run him, but he would tell you to buy when he wants to offload![/quote]
Yes he does, a year ago though he was putting his money in the stocks I listed because the dividend yield was higher than what he wasa getting on bonds. As far as I know he is still invested in those and many other people jumped on the dividend bandwagon.[/quote]
Yeah youre right. He was investing his money, just not PIMCO funds.
Yeah income is king is what a lot of people are saying about equities. David Rosenberg has been saying it for a while, some Goldman guy just jumped on the theme. Makes sense to me.[/quote]
Funny how he was putting his money somewhere else. I have been a dividend investor for a while. So I agree with that going for income.
No, it doesn’t seem like a good time to sell to me. I bought with a long term plan in mind, and if I sold now, would be selling at a loss, as would most people who have any long term investment plan.
As it stands, their is no dividend yield, but unless the companies go belly up, no real loss either Unless I sold. May take this time as an opportunity to buy more though.
[quote]jsbrook wrote:
Terrible advice. Why would anyone sell while stocks are low and likely (but far from certain) to get lower BEFORE they go UP. The time to BUY is nearing. [/quote]
Do you know what PE means? Dividend yield?
When PEs are high and Div yields are low, stocks are a bad bet. The risk is not worth the return.
Look at the charts and graphs provided.
[/quote]
Those are market-driven reasons to sell stocks, and not even particularly good ones. Better reasons to sell are when the company flounders because a fundamental change to the business plan or the stock is overalued. Sometimes it generally makes sense to rebalance your portfolio.
PEs are high and yields low because we are in a bad state right now. The economy will improve and the market will improve. People who do a huge stock dump right now will regret it. Different situation, I suppose, for those close to retirement or who genearally need money and can’t afford to wait to recoup losses. And if you can’t stand it if the stock markets falls hard and your dividend stocks go down in price, then yes, go with your gut and leave stocks alone.
I subscribe to the Buffet rule anyway. “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” Made him a lot of money. And did well by my family as far as investing.[/quote]
Um, dude, PE is a measure of valuation. High PE is a metric that says over valued. Low yeilds in bonds says bad times, low yeilds in stocks says party time, which it is not.
[quote]SkyzykS wrote:
No, it doesn’t seem like a good time to sell to me. I bought with a long term plan in mind, and if I sold now, would be selling at a loss, as would most people who have any long term investment plan.
As it stands, their is no dividend yield, but unless the companies go belly up, no real loss either Unless I sold. May take this time as an opportunity to buy more though.
Yeah, I hope so. I look at companies like C as very interesting at this point. If a person buys that right now, and they return to even half of their previous price, you would be looking at about 8x on growth, and 50-75% yield of dividends per year compared to the cost basis.
Of course that is predicated on a return to previous performance, which is not garaunteed, but fuck it, it’s worth a shot.
Yeah, I hope so. I look at companies like C as very interesting at this point. If a person buys that right now, and they return to even half of their previous price, you would be looking at about 8x on growth, and 50-75% yield of dividends per year compared to the cost basis.
Of course that is predicated on a return to previous performance, which is not garaunteed, but fuck it, it’s worth a shot.
[/quote]
I thought it was very interesting from a behavioral finance perspective that C bounced so hard and so much on the $1 level, the price of a lottery ticket.
Yeah, but given my lack of prognostication skills, thats as good as I can get without putting forth the time and effort to become proficient in more complex investment and money yeilding strategies.
Buying stocks now in general means a PE of 20 and a div yld of 2%. Those numbers are insanely bad for most investors. History says you’re a sucker if you do this.
Graphs don’t lie, gents. Put aside ego and face reality.
On this point I must agree with Headhunter in terms of a likely double-dip. The present “recovery” was artificially supported via the so-called stimulus package. GDP was recently reported downward from previous expectations and unemployment is still quite high. The current stock prices not only will eventually fizzle but must decline. Artificially stimulating a market with false liquidity will require yet an even greater stimulus to keep it afloat. Without this, an eventual crash in stock prices is certainly inevitable. Exactly to what degree of a price drop will occur is an open question.
True, the world continue but certainly with all economic participants poorer as a result.