Warning! Sell Stocks Now!

Off Topic Politics and World Issues
21

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:
Doom and gloom I tell you. Nothing but doom and gloom. I want all you folks to make sure that you have your shelters built, your gold coins in your coffee cans and your freeze dried food at the ready. Soon there will be bands of roving marauders so make sure you have your rifles all loaded up too.

LOL, I’m going to make a fortune in the markets while some of you nut cakes are hiding in your basement.[/quote]

Yeah, what’s history and all those numbers anyway! Who cares if every time in the past 100 years markets went into bear market tailspins when the q-ratio hit .4. And those decades of study? Blah!!! Professor Tobin’s a jackass!![/quote]

No, you are the jackass. It’s called an economic cycle. Are ready for this? They come, then they go, then they come back again.

Now let’see what happened after the great depression? Oh yes, we came back.

You need to get a grip.
[/quote]

Did you suffer a head injury recently? Look at the chart. In 1929, market goes above.4 – crash. Late 1940s and 50s, market is very undervalued – market soars and economy booms. In 1966, market goes above .4 – market flatlines for 16 years. 1994, above .4, hits the peak of the bubble in 2000. Market has gone nowhere for 11 years.

Do you know how to read a chart? I thought you were intelligent. But I guess morons who won’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
[/quote]

The only time I feel concussive is when I read your inane dribble. I don’t want to debate how the stock market moves – with you. Suffice it to say that there are a multitude of factors which drive the market either up or down. I realize that the Q ratio shows weakness, however other things need to be factored in prior to making such sweeping statements.

Would it help if I explained the many reasons why the market will not crash? Would you then take your song and dance elsewhere? No.

I’d much rather recite the first rule of any Internet message board: No one is ever wrong.

Let’s just do this, I will place about 75% of my money in stocks, very soon, and you keep yours in that coffee can, or in gold and we’ll see who wins in 5-10 years time.

Now isn’t that best way to settle this?[/quote]

WASHINGTON (TheStreet) – Eight banks were shuttered by regulators Friday, bringing the 2010 tally of U.S. bank failures to 118.

Six of the eight failed banks were included in TheStreet’s Bank Watch List of undercapitalized institutions, based on second-quarter regulatory data provided by SNL Financial.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. found buyers for the deposits and branches for all of the failed institutions and estimated the combined cost to its deposit insurance fund would be $473.5 million.

The largest failure on Friday was ShoreBank of Chicago, which had $2.16 billion in total assets. ShoreBank received wide media coverage after Bloomberg reported Aug. 5 that the institution had been denied federal bailout funds that would have been required to complete an earlier deal to raise $145 million in capital from an investor group that included Citigroup(C), Bank of America(BAC), JPMorgan Chase(JPM), Wells Fargo(WFC), Morgan Stanley(MS), Goldman Sachs(GS) and Northern Trust(NTRS).

Collapsing banks won’t affect your stocks at all…no…never. That stuff from the 1930’s was a myth. Make sure also to put your money in stocks with a PE>20, and the current dividend yield of 2.15% on the S & P. THAT’S the way to riches!!

ROFLMAO!!!

22

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:
Doom and gloom I tell you. Nothing but doom and gloom. I want all you folks to make sure that you have your shelters built, your gold coins in your coffee cans and your freeze dried food at the ready. Soon there will be bands of roving marauders so make sure you have your rifles all loaded up too.

LOL, I’m going to make a fortune in the markets while some of you nut cakes are hiding in your basement.[/quote]

Yeah, what’s history and all those numbers anyway! Who cares if every time in the past 100 years markets went into bear market tailspins when the q-ratio hit .4. And those decades of study? Blah!!! Professor Tobin’s a jackass!![/quote]

No, you are the jackass. It’s called an economic cycle. Are ready for this? They come, then they go, then they come back again.

Now let’see what happened after the great depression? Oh yes, we came back.

You need to get a grip.
[/quote]

Did you suffer a head injury recently? Look at the chart. In 1929, market goes above.4 – crash. Late 1940s and 50s, market is very undervalued – market soars and economy booms. In 1966, market goes above .4 – market flatlines for 16 years. 1994, above .4, hits the peak of the bubble in 2000. Market has gone nowhere for 11 years.

Do you know how to read a chart? I thought you were intelligent. But I guess morons who won’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
[/quote]

The only time I feel concussive is when I read your inane dribble. I don’t want to debate how the stock market moves – with you. Suffice it to say that there are a multitude of factors which drive the market either up or down. I realize that the Q ratio shows weakness, however other things need to be factored in prior to making such sweeping statements.

Would it help if I explained the many reasons why the market will not crash? Would you then take your song and dance elsewhere? No.

I’d much rather recite the first rule of any Internet message board: No one is ever wrong.

Let’s just do this, I will place about 75% of my money in stocks, very soon, and you keep yours in that coffee can, or in gold and we’ll see who wins in 5-10 years time.

Now isn’t that best way to settle this?[/quote]

Zeb,
I do not know if you are just engaging HH specifically or if you problem is with anyone that thinks we are in for a rough ride.

I have done very well being a bull for long periods over the last 15 years.

I have also done very well being a bear as well. Thinking that we are in for a rough double dip does not make one a “doomer”. If correct it only makes one safe.

For conversation sake, I would love to hear all your reasons why the market will not crash. I have and would again share why I think the opposite. I have no problem putting my money where my mouth is. Whether it be five years, ten years or 18 months…well I am not that kind of investor. For now, I see the path of least resistance as down.

What say you?

23

Id honestly like to hear the bull case. The economic data does not paint me a rosy picture and any sweeping statements about mean reversion and bouncing back because Americans are magical seems to only take the past 40 years of US history into account. And if you want to talk mean reversion, look at the longest term dow chart you can find, we have gone exponential and the only thing we make is credit and debt.

GDP will be revised to below 1% for the past quarter and will turn negative very soon thereafter without more stimulus. Every single economic indicator has rolled over or never bounced back, and if you want I can run down a dozen or so of these. The entire banking system is massively insolvent and the flattening yeild curve is not allowing them to earn their way out this century. They only exist due to government sponsored accounting fraud. Its a balance sheet driven depression, not a garden variety inventory recession, and the country who has gone through this before us has not exactly bounced back and their stock market is down 75% for the last 30 years.

From another point of view, I feel like the baby boomer retirement accounts were just the most crowded trade in human history, and in a zero sum game crowded trades tend to lose big.

24

Zeb is just trolling me, gents.

Good trolling is good.

25

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The way to make money generally in markets is to bet against extremes. Extreme optimism should be sold into, extreme pessimism should be bought into. Looking at the first chart and then at this one tells me that market participants are quite optimistic – dividend yields are very low and valuation of plant and equipment is high (q-ratio).

Cash should be accumulated and silver should be purchased relative to gold. Precious gems are also an option for ease of storage and mobility (fleeing to Canada and so on). Throwing you a bone on that last one, Zeb; you’ll need it.

26

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The way to make money generally in markets is to bet against extremes. Extreme optimism should be sold into, extreme pessimism should be bought into. Looking at the first chart and then at this one tells me that market participants are quite optimistic – dividend yields are very low and valuation of plant and equipment is high (q-ratio).

Cash should be accumulated and silver should be purchased relative to gold. Precious gems are also an option for ease of storage and mobility (fleeing to Canada and so on). Throwing you a bone on that last one, Zeb; you’ll need it.

[/quote]

Like I said, you buy your little gold and silver coins and I’ll invest in the market and we’ll see who is better off in 5-10 years. I can’t think of a better way to see who is right.

27

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The way to make money generally in markets is to bet against extremes. Extreme optimism should be sold into, extreme pessimism should be bought into. Looking at the first chart and then at this one tells me that market participants are quite optimistic – dividend yields are very low and valuation of plant and equipment is high (q-ratio).

Cash should be accumulated and silver should be purchased relative to gold. Precious gems are also an option for ease of storage and mobility (fleeing to Canada and so on). Throwing you a bone on that last one, Zeb; you’ll need it.

[/quote]

I am not a doom and gloomer and even I think we are in a rough patch for atleast the next 7 years. The market may not crash but it will be very slow for growth and an educated trader will be about the only one too make money in that time frame. If It were me Zeb I would expand my time frame to 20 years. I would also go with Jeaton and say it is going to drop a little.
David Rosenberg has stated he is not buying until we see S&P close to 800.

Now I will agree that HH is a little over the top, and it is bad form to only site one piece of data as his reasoning. I think we have all come to expect that from him.

Like I said, you buy your little gold and silver coins and I’ll invest in the market and we’ll see who is better off in 5-10 years. I can’t think of a better way to see who is right.
[/quote]

28

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[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The way to make money generally in markets is to bet against extremes. Extreme optimism should be sold into, extreme pessimism should be bought into. Looking at the first chart and then at this one tells me that market participants are quite optimistic – dividend yields are very low and valuation of plant and equipment is high (q-ratio).

Cash should be accumulated and silver should be purchased relative to gold. Precious gems are also an option for ease of storage and mobility (fleeing to Canada and so on). Throwing you a bone on that last one, Zeb; you’ll need it.

[/quote]

Like I said, you buy your little gold and silver coins and I’ll invest in the market and we’ll see who is better off in 5-10 years. I can’t think of a better way to see who is right.
[/quote]

Been reading John Dewey (the educator)? “We can’t know anything until after the fact.”
Div yield = 2.15%, near a 100 year low.
q-rati0 > .4 (which means stocks are 40% overvalued minimum.

The odds are high that you will be more poor in 5 or 10 years. If you CAN defeat the odds and beat people who invest billions for a living, well, congratulations. Like the idiot who invests his paycheck in lottery tickets and wins, you may have the luck of the stupid.

29

Yes, please sell now. Because I am buying - and I’d appreciate the downward pressure helping me get (more) good deals.

30

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The way to make money generally in markets is to bet against extremes. Extreme optimism should be sold into, extreme pessimism should be bought into. Looking at the first chart and then at this one tells me that market participants are quite optimistic – dividend yields are very low and valuation of plant and equipment is high (q-ratio).

Cash should be accumulated and silver should be purchased relative to gold. Precious gems are also an option for ease of storage and mobility (fleeing to Canada and so on). Throwing you a bone on that last one, Zeb; you’ll need it.

[/quote]

Like I said, you buy your little gold and silver coins and I’ll invest in the market and we’ll see who is better off in 5-10 years. I can’t think of a better way to see who is right.
[/quote]

Been reading John Dewey (the educator)? “We can’t know anything until after the fact.”
Div yield = 2.15%, near a 100 year low.
q-rati0 > .4 (which means stocks are 40% overvalued minimum.

The odds are high that you will be more poor in 5 or 10 years. If you CAN defeat the odds and beat people who invest billions for a living, well, congratulations. Like the idiot who invests his paycheck in lottery tickets and wins, you may have the luck of the stupid.
[/quote]

I understand, you’re not really interested in investing. What you’re going to do is post ad nauseam about a topic you know nothing about. You read an article, and you’re all fired up, that’s nice.

You’ve read my challenge.

31

[quote]orion wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]PimpBot5000 wrote:
Wasn’t somebody here talking about some dreadful stock indicator that signaled certain doom a while back? “The double death cross” or “the Carpathian scimitar of blood” or something equally ominous-sounding? Is this it?[/quote]

You talking about the hindenburg omen?[/quote]

I am pretty sure it was the anvil of avarice.

[/quote]

close; it was the Magnanimous Mace of Monetary Malice

32

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
Yes, please sell now. Because I am buying - and I’d appreciate the downward pressure helping me get (more) good deals.[/quote]

I take it you are still waiting for the nasdaq to hit over 5000 again too huh.

33

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:
Yes, please sell now. Because I am buying - and I’d appreciate the downward pressure helping me get (more) good deals.[/quote]

I know you guys are trolling me, which is fine. Been there, done that.

So, TB, which stocks are you buying? Since the market is overvalued by at least 40% and dividend yield is at just about a 100 year low and the PE is 15 (mostly derived from financials and TARP money) which is twice the typical bear market bottom (see first chart), I’m curious as to what stocks can overcome all those things. Let us in on what you’ve bought!

Be a true pimp.

34

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The way to make money generally in markets is to bet against extremes. Extreme optimism should be sold into, extreme pessimism should be bought into. Looking at the first chart and then at this one tells me that market participants are quite optimistic – dividend yields are very low and valuation of plant and equipment is high (q-ratio).

Cash should be accumulated and silver should be purchased relative to gold. Precious gems are also an option for ease of storage and mobility (fleeing to Canada and so on). Throwing you a bone on that last one, Zeb; you’ll need it.

[/quote]

Like I said, you buy your little gold and silver coins and I’ll invest in the market and we’ll see who is better off in 5-10 years. I can’t think of a better way to see who is right.
[/quote]

Been reading John Dewey (the educator)? “We can’t know anything until after the fact.”
Div yield = 2.15%, near a 100 year low.
q-rati0 > .4 (which means stocks are 40% overvalued minimum.

The odds are high that you will be more poor in 5 or 10 years. If you CAN defeat the odds and beat people who invest billions for a living, well, congratulations. Like the idiot who invests his paycheck in lottery tickets and wins, you may have the luck of the stupid.
[/quote]

I understand, you’re not really interested in investing. What you’re going to do is post ad nauseam about a topic you know nothing about. You read an article, and you’re all fired up, that’s nice.

You’ve read my challenge.[/quote]

u mad?

35

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

u mad?
[/quote]

How could anyone get mad at you?

36

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

u mad?
[/quote]

How could anyone get mad at you?
[/quote]

Jealousy?

Anyway, I hope those stocks, the ones paying dividends at a lower rate than in the 1960’s, make a ton of money for you. When yields go down to 1% and PEs go above 30, you’ll be rich!!

Now the question is: where in Fantasyland will you live?

37

[quote]John S. wrote:

I take it you are still waiting for the nasdaq to hit over 5000 again too huh.[/quote]

Nope, I generally don’t do a lot of tech.

No offense - but I have just about zero interest in financial advice from someone of your age and experience.

38

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

I know you guys are trolling me, which is fine. Been there, done that.[/quote]

I don’t troll.

[quote]So, TB, which stocks are you buying? Since the market is overvalued by at least 40% and dividend yield is at just about a 100 year low and the PE is 15 (mostly derived from financials and TARP money) which is twice the typical bear market bottom (see first chart), I’m curious as to what stocks can overcome all those things. Let us in on what you’ve bought!

Be a true pimp.[/quote]

Lots of stocks in various sectors, primarily ones of companies I think that are poised to be at the vanguard of an M&A boom. This market has exposed the frailties of a great many businesses, and those with reasonably strong balance sheets and smart management will be in hunting mode.

Thus, I’d like to be invested in them prior to this acquisition season.

Smart businesses (and businesspeople) know how to make money and be strategic in any market. Assets in this weakened market are cheap, and smart acquirers are primed to add to their businesses. And wise investors are buying the stocks of smart acquirers.

Look into it. Paranoia and conspiracy theories are no way to manage your money.

39

[quote]thunderbolt23 wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

I know you guys are trolling me, which is fine. Been there, done that.[/quote]

I don’t troll.

[quote]So, TB, which stocks are you buying? Since the market is overvalued by at least 40% and dividend yield is at just about a 100 year low and the PE is 15 (mostly derived from financials and TARP money) which is twice the typical bear market bottom (see first chart), I’m curious as to what stocks can overcome all those things. Let us in on what you’ve bought!

Be a true pimp.[/quote]

Lots of stocks in various sectors, primarily ones of companies I think that are poised to be at the vanguard of an M&A boom. This market has exposed the frailties of a great many businesses, and those with reasonably strong balance sheets and smart management will be in hunting mode.

Thus, I’d like to be invested in them prior to this acquisition season.

Smart businesses (and businesspeople) know how to make money and be strategic in any market. Assets in this weakened market are cheap, and smart acquirers are primed to add to their businesses. And wise investors are buying the stocks of smart acquirers.

Look into it. Paranoia and conspiracy theories are no way to manage your money.[/quote]

Stop all this talk of making money in the stock market in any way, shape, or form! Headhunter says it can’t be done and high school teachers who post on bodybuilding forums know best.

Seriously, you’ve made many valid points. I tend to purchase stocks for the long-haul. I know that certain companies in key sectors will be stronger 5-10 years down the road and right now they’re incredibly cheap.

40

M&A is the only positive I can see in the market right now, but its 1 vs 100 in data points to me. Maybe as a #2 that stocks will be better to own than dollars in the event we get more quantitative easing.

Finding alpha in event driven plays with these kind of headwinds is going to be rough. Adding to that dispersion is at an all time low, so picking stocks has yeilded the least returns over an index or dartboard approach recently.