[quote]jtrinsey wrote:
I think Cain has a great shot as he has the wrestling to at least hang with Lesnar and maybe defend a takedown or two and his striking looks vastly improved. [/quote]
He is very good, but I don’t think his wrestling pedigree is even close to Lesnars. In addition to that he’s giving away a lot of size and while size isn’t everything when all else is equal size matters. And in this case all else isn’t even equal.
[quote]
Mir has already beat Lesnar and, even though I think Lesnar will and should be a heavy favorite to win a rubber match, has a realistic shot to do it again. [/quote]
Mir had his day with Lesnar that was BEFORE Lesnar figured out how to stay tight and use his wrestling ability (via Hughes, Couture and many others) to nullify the BJJ ground game. That doesn’t mean that Mir couldn’t catch Lesnar but it’s highly doubtful.
Superior striking? He’s too slow have you looked closely at that “superior striking”? Even Gonzaga as clueless as he was the other night dodged many of Dos Santos punches and only got into trouble because he tried to play kick-boxer, how foolish was that? But no Dos Santos will not have near the speed he needs to avoid being destroyed by a superior Carwin. And if for some reason Carwin decides he wants to fight on the ground, down goes Dos Santos.
I agree Carwin has no real defense when striking. He goes after people with a vengeance and that has worked so far. A superior striker (not Dos Santos) may take advantage of that. But what happened after he took that punch from Gonzaga? Did he quit? Did he back-up? No he attacked and put Gonzaga down. That was a great test for not only Carwins ability to take a punch but his heart as well.
He also has shown that he is slow and plodding. Even the over the hill Cro Crop was able to move away from many of Dos Santos punches.
[quote]Also, dos Santos has already demolished a top-level grappler.
Fabricio Werdum has a different style, but he is a far more accomplished grappler than Carwin. Being a D2 wrestling champ is nice, but Werdum is a high-level jujitsu and judo player who has won the ADCC’s three times while beating the likes of Van Arsdale and Linland. Carwin appears to have a lot more knockout power than Werdum, but I think it is foolish to assume that Carwin will plant dos Santos on his back with ease.[/quote]
Don’t confuse “grappler” with an actual American Collegiate champion wrestler. Each has their strengths, but with a really good wrestler the fight goes where he wants it to. And in Carwins case he has the lethal hands to go along with it.
Also, never said that Carwin would plant anyone on their back with ease. But, he will beat Dos Santos quite convincingly.
[quote]
The takedown game would appear to favor Carwin, but we haven’t really seen him use his wrestling yet and nobody has been able to take dos Santos down yet.[/quote]
Gonzaga took him down the other night, with ease. He just didn’t keep him down Carwin could easily take dos santos down and I bet he’d keep him there.
Right you are and that’s where it would end if not before. (By the way Dos Santos is a purple belt, not a brown belt as you suggested earlier-unless he’s had a very recent promotion)
[quote]
I do think Carwin has a very real possibility of winning, in order for him to be the favorite over dos Santos, we have to assume he has a superior ground game as the standup is, at best, a 50/50 proposition. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume Carwin would win on the ground, but it is only assumption as we just haven’t seen it yet, from either man.[/quote]
I’m so sure that Carwin would defeat him that I’d lay about 6-1 odds if I were a betting man. I’m either crazy on this point, or I see something that you don’t, one or the other.
Maybe I was overly harsh saying that Dos Santos will never be champion. Maybe if he vastly improves his ground game and trains with the Olympic wrestling team as GSP did, and maybe if he improves his striking ability and maybe if he improves his hand speed and maybe if…naw he’s never going to be champion I’ll stick with my prediction. You can always point and laugh at me if he does become champion and I will have to eat crow. But, I just don’t think that day will ever come.