Where do you think these seven seats will come from?
Maryland?
California?
Illinois?
I’m having a hard time seeing where seven more seats are gained from?
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Fortunately this isn’t the whole battle. As in the image USMC posted above, the inverse problem happens with incumbents. In terms of Congress, it’s much easier to campaign with the message of “look how bad they’re fucking up,” hence presidents LOSING seats far in excess of gaining.
Couple in Trumps lack of progress on his major talking points (wall, healthcare, “deals”, etc) and Dems are going to shove it down Repub congress’ throats.
Trump, of course, won’t suffer any real blowback from this until it’s time for him to campaign again, but we could very very easily seem him lose the senate and be relegated to EOs (not like he’s using anything else yet to be fair) and hoping SCOTUS backs him up.
I wouldn’t go that far. I agree his approval numbers are low and are not likely to get much better with the left wing media bashing him. I read somewhere that something like 90% of all stories on President Trump are negative. But… I don’t think the democrat party will be all that motivated if the typical democrat (the ones who actually have a jobs…and one in the private sector) are making more money.
Just like it was difficult for Hillary to make it three in a row for the democrats…that was only done twice in modern day politics FDR to Truman and Reagan to Bush HW. It’s just as tough to defeat an incumbent President (see my previous post).
But keep hoping Tyler…who knows…you might get your wish.
First of all a Senator has to be up for reelection before they can actually lose. So starting from there we have 25 democrat Senators up for reelection and only 8 republicans. That immediately gives an edge to the republicans in the mid-terms. In addition to that out of the 25 seats that the dems must defend 13 of those states are states that Trump either won or lost narrowly. 5 of those states are states that Trump carried easily.
So the republicans only need to win 8 of 8 to maintain…and the dems need to win 25 out of 25 to maintain. I am stating that the dems may not be able to hold on to all of the seats in areas where Trump won The republicans could pick up seats in states such as W. Virginia, N.Dakota, Missouri, Montana, and Indiana . In addition to these potential losses they could also lose in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin the three surprise states that Trump won. If it’s a clean sweep for the republicans in those states and they hold their original 8, which I feel is likely, that means they pick up 8. And why I said 7 or so. The dems could certainly hold on to a few more…or not. So if Trump has a good first half the republicans win 5-8 Senate seats.
That was my rationale…Hey…it’s really too far out to make predictions but you know I like to make them so if all goes well for Trump (and only if all goes well) the dems lose around 7 seats.
The people who have their healthcare taken from them will care; that’s not just Hillary voters. But I like your overconfidence.
I’m not sure many will have their health care taken from them (they should). The republicans are churning out Obamacare light, which I personally don’t like, but will not lose them any votes on the right. And I am not over confident I am just making a prediction which could either be right or wrong. I do know the wacky left protestors who occasionally riot are harming your side in a huge way. The news media loves to see Trump bashed so they don’t go too hard on the protesters. And this will hurt whomever the dems put up…unless you guys have another Obama somewhere which I don’t see happening.
I agree with this, public opinion on this can only go in one direction now and I think its peak resistance was about the time of the election. We will see how it goes in the Senate but based on how bad Obamacare supposedly is and how difficult this was to pass even with Republican controlled everything is not a good sign for the anti-Obamacare crowd. Both sides are fighting with extreme versions of their ideas instead of a compromise, in the end this ultimately means the left will win.
But it’s always good to keep promises that you made to the voters and that is exactly what the House has done. And with modifications to the bill I am hoping the Senate republicans will do the same.
One scenario that could play out in general is that Trump helps turn the economy, starts the wall, changes Obama care etc. and the people actually like it. And then…if that should happen…the dems are up the creek without a paddle because all they did was obstruct.
Of course that scenario may not play out. But either way keep in mind that voters DO NOT like rioting and protesting. They go to work each day and ask themselves “how is it that those people making a ruckus and destroying things are not at work.”
Trust me on this one. If there is on thing that could sink a democrat comeback it’s the protesting and the almighty “resistance movement”.
Hate can drive people to do things that are not in their own best interest.
Charles is a smart guy… 
I’m not saying it’s impossible. The math just seems difficult at best. Plus GWB and FDR are the only Presidents whose party picked up 7+ seats. Like I said, bold prediction. We’ll see.
The problem is most people with ACA like it better than what was available before. If its replaced with something better its a juge victory. IE people with pre exist dont get booted off… Premiums and deductables go down… But if costs go up and people start dying than the right wingers will be up shits creek nobody to blame. I hope its a good plan but so far signs point to NO… Im hopeful tho I would love better service and lower prices with more options. Also a bigger schlong and a infinity bank account would be cool
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Well, as you can see I am basing it on something concrete. But as I said there is a long way to go. By then Trump might tick off most of the country. Then again he actually might succeed.
And I’d like you to pay for your own freaking health care…But once you give someone something for free you can’t take it away. Thus…whatever the republicans come up with will be tantamount to Obamacare light. That keeps a promise and doesn’t piss people off.
It also sucks!
Even a couple of the old hippy types that I know don’t like the antfa bullshit. They don’t see it as being in the spirit of what they did, and do see it as cry-bully snowflakes throwing tantrums.
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I do pay but without reasonable regulation the industry charges crazy rates and provides shit service. It would be nice if they didn’t burn everyone without being forced but they don’t. Anything over $100-150 per person is ridiculous for avg American
You do realize that what they passed yesterday would increase your rates, right?
Under current rules, insurers cannot charge older adults more than three times what they charge young adults for the same coverage. The House bill would allow them to charge five times as much. The Congressional Budget Office said this change would reduce premiums for young adults and increase premiums for older Americans.
That is pretty much why I hate it. It isn’t affordable or health care. It’s a shakedown to avoid penalty due to the individual mandate.
I’d like to ring Obamas neck for that alone, while explaining to him that people don’t just “get” more money like our government does. We actually have to make it somehow.
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Your not wrong… Obama care does suck…it just sucks a little less than what we had. Here’s how it works so you guys can relate. You work at a company. Company provides your family of 5 decent basic insurance. They take $500 out your check. You quit or get fired laid off. Decide to start a business. You go on the open market to buy insurance. That same plan now costs you $1500. You only got $500 to spend or budgeted. Your $500 plan blows but your covered for emergencies.
What ACA did was make it so what now get is about 60% as good as what you got when you were at company but 2x as good as your private turd plan for the same $500 cost. Hope this makes sense
Right and there are answers for that like competition. The answer is not ME paying for you or anyone else’s insurance needs. The democrats have driven us so far left …