What did I tell you? C should swing to 8 dollars and above soon. Thats why I accumulated an oversized load under 4 dollars.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
translated -
I hate tribunaldude and his trading acumen.
[/quote]
I like oil here. Dollar moved up way to quick and the pullback should give all the commodities some life. UUP (long the dollar) just had a DeMark 13 sell signal today and the MACD is turning. It also hit the top bollinger band and is overbought on the stochastic. End of the day every technical says the dollar is due for a pullback.
Gold already sprinted higher but you can still get long USO here for a trade. I’d play the USO as opposed to any of the energy stocks. Take a look at DBA as well. Tight stops on everything!
I bought BAC at 12.70. Still in the trade and want to see this last but I’m not to confident. Watch 840 on the S&P. If we close above we move higher the rest of the week (which this week is really only Tuesday). If we can’t break that I would recomend taking profits.
Obviously this is all short term trading and not investing. For the long term account I have been buying VZ LQD and GILD at these prices.
Everyone needs to stop with the PE talk here. Remember the E in PE is the trailing 12 month earnings. You need to adjust that down to what you expect for next year’s earnings.
[quote]tribunaldude wrote:
What did I tell you? C should swing to 8 dollars and above soon. Thats why I accumulated an oversized load under 4 dollars.
rainjack wrote:
translated -
I hate tribunaldude and his trading acumen.
[/quote]
You have no “acumen”. You are a college kid who likes to run his mouth, and make errant prediction after errant prediction,
But - You are a trader. I am talking about investing.
A genius college kid like you should know the difference.
ut it is really no shock to me that you are clueless.
C will be close to 10 by christmas. The govt won;t allow C to die a varmint’s death…I;m 6X oversized on C alone (swing target 8.44), and will watch the profits run. ALSO getting in 4X oversized on ESLR next week if support holds (again swinging for 4 bucks a pop).
And gramps, I run a trading newsletter that a few Merill Lynch, NITE, MAXM and SBSH brokers pay good money for, just to let you know. I could give you doddering-but-young-at-heart codgers a couple of picks that we may run (yes, WE) in the next 30 days to give you a 200-300% return from this point.
Here’s a thanksgiving day gift from trib to the small time crooks looking for a break…fresh off the pinks and on to the OTC board, I give you BRGP.OB (bridgepoint). Buy, hold and accumulate 3-5 cents, sell target 8-10 cents. multi-day runner.
There’s another gift, but it is controversial and can get me in trouble if I post it publicly. if anyone is interested in a 4- or 5-bagger by christmas (low float, recent float, no debt, no history …aaaaaand NITE on the bid next week) send me a PM.
(Disclaimer:: Not a registered broker no more…you can lose all your money by listening to my advice. So help you God…no responsibility from my side for any investment decisions made by you)
[quote]rainjack wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
What did I tell you? C should swing to 8 dollars and above soon. Thats why I accumulated an oversized load under 4 dollars.
rainjack wrote:
translated -
I hate tribunaldude and his trading acumen.
You have no “acumen”. You are a college kid who likes to run his mouth, and make errant prediction after errant prediction,
But - You are a trader. I am talking about investing.
A genius college kid like you should know the difference.
ut it is really no shock to me that you are clueless.
[/quote]
On a side note, if Bernanke, Paulson and Bush make one more speech on the market - we could have an early deathroll before the santa rally.
Public humiliation for the three buffoons, no less.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
Once the world economy turns around, global demand for crude will increase (as will the price)
[/quote]
I’m not sure why you say oil is a bad play, but then you say this? At these lows, this is when you get in long.
[quote]msd0060 wrote:
rainjack wrote:
Once the world economy turns around, global demand for crude will increase (as will the price)
I’m not sure why you say oil is a bad play, but then you say this? At these lows, this is when you get in long. [/quote]
I agree, I’m planning to get back in oil soon. I’ve arbitrarily thought I’d get back in when when I pay a buck fifty at the pump.
[quote]on edge wrote:
I agree, I’m planning to get back in oil soon. I’ve arbitrarily thought I’d get back in when when I pay a buck fifty at the pump.[/quote]
And I was going to short oil when it hit 160 per barrel. It didn’t quite get there and I missed an opportunity. Always be alert that your turning point might arrive early.
deflation is the biggest problem right now for our economy with interest rates close (and heading to) 0%. The fed/treasury will do all they can to get asset prices up which is good for all commodities. Also have a look at TBT, the yeild on treasuries are lower than great depression levles. As long as the world doesn’t end TBT will do well.
[quote]yorik wrote:
on edge wrote:
I agree, I’m planning to get back in oil soon. I’ve arbitrarily thought I’d get back in when when I pay a buck fifty at the pump.
And I was going to short oil when it hit 160 per barrel. It didn’t quite get there and I missed an opportunity. Always be alert that your turning point might arrive early.[/quote]
That’s good point. Getting in when gas reaches a dollar fifty would just be my wild guess at picking a bottom. When I’m not making wild guesses I use technical indicators. In this case I would look for XLE to make a higher low and then a higher high. I’d then look for a retracement to a certain level and get in. You don’t get in at the very bottom this way, but you do get in fairly low.
[quote]on edge wrote:
yorik wrote:
on edge wrote:
I agree, I’m planning to get back in oil soon. I’ve arbitrarily thought I’d get back in when when I pay a buck fifty at the pump.
And I was going to short oil when it hit 160 per barrel. It didn’t quite get there and I missed an opportunity. Always be alert that your turning point might arrive early.
That’s good point. Getting in when gas reaches a dollar fifty would just be my wild guess at picking a bottom. When I’m not making wild guesses I use technical indicators. In this case I would look for XLE to make a higher low and then a higher high. I’d then look for a retracement to a certain level and get in. You don’t get in at the very bottom this way, but you do get in fairly low.[/quote]
No need to be the first one in. Higher low and higher high should be a good sign for not just energy but for everything.
Keep an eye on the 30 day MA of the S&P. Each time we hit it since Sept we then fall back to a new low. I’d start to get bullish if we can break through there and hold it but if we can’t break it time to gget short.
Want to know what the stock market is going to do? I’ve found the best predictive method — worldwide shipping.
If shipping turns down, economies are turning down, and vice versa. Go to the site and compare the BDI with its 200 day moving avergae. Now compare to the SP 500. Voila! You’ve got your own crystal ball!
How does that help with predicting individual stocks? It might help with certain industries but not all businesses are dependent on shipping.
I can see how one would think as a whole when shipping goes down then not as many goods are being shipped but what about services that cannot be shipped. Service oriented industries cannot be measured this way.
Also, there seems to be a chicken verses the chicken egg predicament here. Which trend leads which is not quite clear.
[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
How does that help with predicting individual stocks? It might help with certain industries but not all businesses are dependent on shipping.
I can see how one would think as a whole when shipping goes down then not as many goods are being shipped but what about services that cannot be shipped. Service oriented industries cannot be measured this way.
Also, there seems to be a chicken verses the chicken egg predicament here. Which trend leads which is not quite clear.[/quote]
When shipping turns up, it means that demand has turned up. When demand turns up, profits usually turn up. When profits turn up, stock prices usually follow.
It won’t help you pick stocks but it does tell you which way the tide is going (pun intended! ;> ) Its usually easier to make money in stocks when the tide is rising. When its falling, its almost impossible to make money in stocks. Only about 17 stocks in the S&P 500 are up this year — if you consistently bet on them, then I will pony up the cash for your stock picking service. 
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
Want to know what the stock market is going to do? I’ve found the best predictive method — worldwide shipping.
If shipping turns down, economies are turning down, and vice versa. Go to the site and compare the BDI with its 200 day moving avergae. Now compare to the SP 500. Voila! You’ve got your own crystal ball!
[/quote]
Ok, teacher, is it your contention that an investor should buy in now with such a huge separation from the 200 day average, essentially betting on a movement back toward that average as history has shown or to wait longer for shipping to increase from these levels?
[quote]on edge wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
Want to know what the stock market is going to do? I’ve found the best predictive method — worldwide shipping.
If shipping turns down, economies are turning down, and vice versa. Go to the site and compare the BDI with its 200 day moving avergae. Now compare to the SP 500. Voila! You’ve got your own crystal ball!
Ok, teacher, is it your contention that an investor should buy in now with such a huge separation from the 200 day average, essentially betting on a movement back toward that average as history has shown or to wait longer for shipping to increase from these levels?[/quote]
Only if you want to gamble. Otherwise, wait until the index moves above its 200 moving average. Use the logarithmic chart for more clarity.
The cool thing about the BDI is that it involves no speculation. It can’t be bought or sold, just used. Its pure data. Very cool!
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
How does that help with predicting individual stocks? It might help with certain industries but not all businesses are dependent on shipping.
I can see how one would think as a whole when shipping goes down then not as many goods are being shipped but what about services that cannot be shipped. Service oriented industries cannot be measured this way.
Also, there seems to be a chicken verses the chicken egg predicament here. Which trend leads which is not quite clear.
When shipping turns up, it means that demand has turned up. When demand turns up, profits usually turn up. When profits turn up, stock prices usually follow.
It won’t help you pick stocks but it does tell you which way the tide is going (pun intended! ;> ) Its usually easier to make money in stocks when the tide is rising. When its falling, its almost impossible to make money in stocks. Only about 17 stocks in the S&P 500 are up this year — if you consistently bet on them, then I will pony up the cash for your stock picking service.
[/quote]
I don’t know what you mean by shipping going up. You mean prices or quantity of total goods? Wouldn’t the GDP and GNP effectively do the same thing?
I think tracking the total daily shipping weight of the cargo leaving the US would be a better indicator for S&P 500.
[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
How does that help with predicting individual stocks? It might help with certain industries but not all businesses are dependent on shipping.
I can see how one would think as a whole when shipping goes down then not as many goods are being shipped but what about services that cannot be shipped. Service oriented industries cannot be measured this way.
Also, there seems to be a chicken verses the chicken egg predicament here. Which trend leads which is not quite clear.
When shipping turns up, it means that demand has turned up. When demand turns up, profits usually turn up. When profits turn up, stock prices usually follow.
It won’t help you pick stocks but it does tell you which way the tide is going (pun intended! ;> ) Its usually easier to make money in stocks when the tide is rising. When its falling, its almost impossible to make money in stocks. Only about 17 stocks in the S&P 500 are up this year — if you consistently bet on them, then I will pony up the cash for your stock picking service.
I don’t know what you mean by shipping going up. You mean prices or quantity of total goods? Wouldn’t the GDP and GNP effectively do the same thing?
I think tracking the total daily shipping weight of the cargo leaving the US would be a better indicator for S&P 500.[/quote]
Think of the BDI as a measure of economic activity, with an eye toward demand. If you followed the BDI, you’d garner at least 60% of the gains on the S%P and avoid at least 60% of the losses.
Another point is that its usually better to try and NOT beat the market. You’re up against pros who do this for a living and they will beat you to those stocks. Just sit on cash when the BDI says we’re headed south and buy in when it has sufficiently turned.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
on edge wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
Want to know what the stock market is going to do? I’ve found the best predictive method — worldwide shipping.
If shipping turns down, economies are turning down, and vice versa. Go to the site and compare the BDI with its 200 day moving avergae. Now compare to the SP 500. Voila! You’ve got your own crystal ball!
Ok, teacher, is it your contention that an investor should buy in now with such a huge separation from the 200 day average, essentially betting on a movement back toward that average as history has shown or to wait longer for shipping to increase from these levels?
Only if you want to gamble. Otherwise, wait until the index moves above its 200 moving average. Use the logarithmic chart for more clarity.
The cool thing about the BDI is that it involves no speculation. It can’t be bought or sold, just used. Its pure data. Very cool!
[/quote]
I’m not getting it. If one were to strictly follow the approach of being in the S&P 500 when the 200 day BDI is above the S&P and being out when it’s below it doesn’t work out that well.
The investor would get in mid to late '02 and would be golden until he gets out mid '05. He would then miss out on the continued run up until mid '07. Worse, he would get in at that point and be in up until a couple of months ago. Losing massive amounts of cash.