The Stock Market Thread

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
21

[quote]rainjack wrote:
I have been saying to buy GE for some time now.

The price keeps getting better and better. They are now approaching a 10% yield which is a pretty safe bet considering the fact that management has promised not to cut the $.30/share divi for the next year.

Wall Street is on sale. Too bad money is tight. This is the time when people with vision and patience can make moves that will make them unspeakably rich. [/quote]

The world PE is now the lowest since 1982. GE is off over 61% year to date. So, yes, if you’ve got the coin, it would make sense to average in.

There is a danger of the S&P falling more, but a lot is already priced in. A fall from 800 to 485 would be possible, which is why averaging in would be a better and safer choice.

Notice how worldwide shipping is starting to turn (see chart) — harbinger of a pickup in demand.

22

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

A good question that has helped me make $$$ is to ask: what industry 20 years from now will be very prosperous? I like biotech for that reason. Anyone want to chime in on bio? I know it seems like all promises and no $$$ but I have a lot of patience.

[/quote]

20 years ago biotech was a wonderful story waiting to unfold. With only a few exceptions like Amgen and Genentech. The majority has gone no where. How do we know the next 20 years will be any different. Biotech disappoints over and over again. Until this trend is broken, I’m staying away.

I’m more likely to go into Alt Energy, but, as I stated above, it could very well be another biotech. As you put it "all promises and no $$$.

23

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
skaz05 wrote:
Oh wow man… Stocks got hammered today. IT’S THE END OF THE WORLD! WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIIIIIIIIEEEEEEE!!!

C’mon, let’s keep it legit and on topic.

A good question that has helped me make $$$ is to ask: what industry 20 years from now will be very prosperous? I like biotech for that reason. Anyone want to chime in on bio? I know it seems like all promises and no $$$ but I have a lot of patience.

And just for TD, I also like gold mining stocks that have high costs, like Barrick. If the price rises, their % gain will be phenomenal, also with TD on the juniors. Most people should buy a mutual fund there though; mining stocks are treacherous.

[/quote]

Biotech and the fuel cell industry will likely hit it big in the 20 years, but it is still a crapshoot figuring out which biotech companies will prosper. If you look deep enough into it, I think you will be lead right back to GE.

Pfizer is another one that biotech points to. Like Wells Fargo, it is not selling at a huge discount right now, but it is paying a nice dividend (9%) and should be a safe pick.

24

[quote]tedro wrote:

Biotech and the fuel cell industry will likely hit it big in the 20 years, but it is still a crapshoot figuring out which biotech companies will prosper. If you look deep enough into it, I think you will be lead right back to GE.

Pfizer is another one that biotech points to. Like Wells Fargo, it is not selling at a huge discount right now, but it is paying a nice dividend (9%) and should be a safe pick.[/quote]

I’m sorry Tedro, but fuel cells will never go anywhere except the way of the Neanderthals. It’s a failed technology. Technology to improve batteries (without hydrogen) has all but won this battle. Tesla Motors has a car that will go 240 miles on one charge. The fuel cell industry can’t keep the hydrogen in a tank. They can’t ship it. There’s no infrastructure for it. These hurdles are too big to tackle when you have a plug in option as good as a full tank of gas.

Regarding Pfizer, I call that Big Pharma. But, I agree with you, with the aging Baby Boomers, it’s probably a good long term investment. And, thanks for pointing out the dividend, I’m going to have to take a look at that one.

25

"Bivens, the top-ranked analyst in a Bloomberg survey for his returns on Campbell recommendations, raised the 12-month target price on Nov. 17 to $44.50, 26 percent higher than yesterday’s $35.42 close in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Second-ranked analyst Pinheiro yesterday recommended buying the shares, citing condensed soup as the company’s ``most profitable business.‘’

The food producer has survived 28 recessions, two world wars and the Great Depression over its 139-year existence. ``Historically, Campbell’s soup sales have done well during tough economic times as consumers look for value,‘’ said spokesman Anthony Sanzio."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aNim9TU8RH10&refer=home

Boring as hell but let’s make some folding green!!

26

Buying C oversized 4X under 4 dollars today. Ploy worked with GM yesterday!

Also if anyone wants to get in on “run ups” lemme know via PM (disclaimer:: I make no buy/sell recommendations. I am not a registered broker anymore blah blah blah)

Level 3 rocks dudeness.

27

[quote]on edge wrote:
I’m sorry Tedro, but fuel cells will never go anywhere except the way of the Neanderthals. It’s a failed technology. Technology to improve batteries (without hydrogen) has all but won this battle. Tesla Motors has a car that will go 240 miles on one charge. The fuel cell industry can’t keep the hydrogen in a tank. They can’t ship it. There’s no infrastructure for it. These hurdles are too big to tackle when you have a plug in option as good as a full tank of gas.
[/quote]

I disagree. Hydrogen stations are starting to pop up, mostly as a partnership with car manufacturers to test their fuel cell vehicles. There’s probably quite a few more than you imagined:

The problems of shipping it and storing it have largely been overcome. The infrastructure is the biggest hurdle right now, but as you can see stations are becoming more and more common.

Chevy’s equinox seems to be quite a success for a prototype. There are currently 100 on the roads of New York City.

Still, this information is mostly worthless as it pertains to picking stocks. I still thinks it’s a crapshoot as to which companies prosper because of hydrogen.

28

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
"Bivens, the top-ranked analyst in a Bloomberg survey for his returns on Campbell recommendations, raised the 12-month target price on Nov. 17 to $44.50, 26 percent higher than yesterday’s $35.42 close in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Second-ranked analyst Pinheiro yesterday recommended buying the shares, citing condensed soup as the company’s ``most profitable business.‘’

The food producer has survived 28 recessions, two world wars and the Great Depression over its 139-year existence. ``Historically, Campbell’s soup sales have done well during tough economic times as consumers look for value,‘’ said spokesman Anthony Sanzio."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aNim9TU8RH10&refer=home

Boring as hell but let’s make some folding green!!
[/quote]

Campbell’s is overpriced. The stock has been on the rise for the last few years as investors look for a safe place to put money. It now has a 20 p/e and a reliable 3% divi.

It is on a bubble and will drop when the rest of the market comes back and investors start looking for better places to make money.

If you want a reliable dividend it may be good for the next year or so and you won’t find more of a sure thing, but Campbell’s definitely is not a place to go if you are looking for growth.

29

[quote]tribunaldude wrote:
Buying C oversized 4X under 4 dollars today. Ploy worked with GM yesterday!

[/quote]

No, too risky to buy C. Some good trades can be made by buying JPM, BAC or any other financial that is falling in sympathy with Citibank. This way you take advantage of unjust panic selling. Value investors step in, the price goes up and you pocket the change.

30

[quote]tedro wrote:
on edge wrote:
I’m sorry Tedro, but fuel cells will never go anywhere except the way of the Neanderthals. It’s a failed technology. Technology to improve batteries (without hydrogen) has all but won this battle. Tesla Motors has a car that will go 240 miles on one charge. The fuel cell industry can’t keep the hydrogen in a tank. They can’t ship it. There’s no infrastructure for it. These hurdles are too big to tackle when you have a plug in option as good as a full tank of gas.

I disagree. Hydrogen stations are starting to pop up, mostly as a partnership with car manufacturers to test their fuel cell vehicles. There’s probably quite a few more than you imagined:

The problems of shipping it and storing it have largely been overcome. The infrastructure is the biggest hurdle right now, but as you can see stations are becoming more and more common.

Chevy’s equinox seems to be quite a success for a prototype. There are currently 100 on the roads of New York City.

Still, this information is mostly worthless as it pertains to picking stocks. I still thinks it’s a crapshoot as to which companies prosper because of hydrogen.

[/quote]

I don’t see that the infrastructure will be completed when battery powered motors are nearly good enough.

It would be nice if I’m wrong though. I have something like 300 shares of Plug Power left over from the tech wreck. It’s not worth enough now to bother selling. Hasn’t been for years.

31

Who likes oil?

It may be subjected to excessive taxes under Obama, but we all know it isn’t going anywhere for a while. Exxon just posted record profits (again), and it is still well off its high.

32

I just put in an order to buy JPM if it drops to 18.8. Probably won’t get it but crazy things have been happening in the last hour of trading, lately.

33

[quote]on edge wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
Buying C oversized 4X under 4 dollars today. Ploy worked with GM yesterday!

No, too risky to buy C. Some good trades can be made by buying JPM, BAC or any other financial that is falling in sympathy with Citibank. This way you take advantage of unjust panic selling. Value investors step in, the price goes up and you pocket the change.[/quote]

I can’t believe a serious person would even entertain the ramblings of TD.

He has missed on every single thing he has predicted, and demonstrates the wisdom of a 2 year-old when it comes to making money.

I think anything in the banking industry is too risky for an investor.

Stick with companies that make stuff, and sell stuff with low PE’s (sub 10 is best) - MO, GE, PM, WMT (not my favorite as it has a PE of around 15 - but will be strong in weak times), etc.

34

[quote]tedro wrote:
Who likes oil?

It may be subjected to excessive taxes under Obama, but we all know it isn’t going anywhere for a while. Exxon just posted record profits (again), and it is still well off its high. [/quote]

Oil is a bad play. That’s like buying into disco in 1982.

Wind, Solar, and other alt energy companies will have a favorable run under Opie.

35

[quote]rainjack wrote:
tedro wrote:
Who likes oil?

It may be subjected to excessive taxes under Obama, but we all know it isn’t going anywhere for a while. Exxon just posted record profits (again), and it is still well off its high.

Oil is a bad play. That’s like buying into disco in 1982.

Wind, Solar, and other alt energy companies will have a favorable run under Opie. [/quote]

If so, how come there wasn’t a spike or even a slow down in the sectors losses when Opie won the election?

Solar is not a place I’d put cash, the technology just isn’t good enough yet (except for trading, I might try trading STP).

Wind and companies that would benefit from a retooling of the power grid are places I would like to put some long term cash, but I’d like a better indication that Alt Energy is not just another Biotech.

36

[quote]on edge wrote:
If so, how come there wasn’t a spike or even a slow down in the sectors losses when Opie won the election?[/quote]

Probably because he has not come out with any concrete alt energy plans that I know of. Plus, the free fall in oil prices (down almost $100/barrel since July) has cooled the demand for alt energy.

Once the world economy turns around, global demand for crude will increase (as will the price) and refuel the alt energy push. That is why now would be a good time to invest in wind. I wouldn’t put retirement savings in it, but I think it would be a good place for a little speculative cash.

I agree on the solar. Wind is where it is at IMO. The green credits for big oil still make wind exploration profitable - just not as profitable when you have $100 oil. They have spent billions in my area just leasing up land to put the wind towers. They are coming.

Retooling of the power grid, or the addition of significant transmission lines would be a real nice place to put some money for the next 5 years, or so.

37

[quote]on edge wrote:

A company I’ve just started looking at, that I fid quite tempting is Ottr Tail Power (OTTR). They make wind turbines and other energy infrastructure products. In addition they dabble in medical devices and shit like that. They pay a nice dividend at the current price.[/quote]

RJ, have you looked at this one, OTTR?

38

[quote]rainjack wrote:

Stick with companies that make stuff, and sell stuff with low PE’s (sub 10 is best) - MO, GE, PM, WMT (not my favorite as it has a PE of around 15 - but will be strong in weak times), etc. [/quote]

Great thread! agree with comments about WMT. I work for a major container shipping line in China and WMT is one of the few US importers who’s cargo volumes haven’t dropped in recent months.

I like Johnson and Johnson a lot, good dividends but its not super cheap at this point (P/E around 13). Their products are everywhere in pharmacies and supermarkets in China - especially those from their subsidiary Xian-Janssen.

39

C will either triple from this point or go BK. My intuition says that the government will save Citibank - the risk of letting it tank is just too severe.

Do you think I would recommend a 4X oversized buy if I wasn;lt convinced something was cookin, I was loading up 3X oversized on GM when it was under 2 dollars, and my clients loaded up on F close to a dollar (holdin till the meeting in december). Just because you hate risk (your age is a factor here) doesn;t mean no one should be aggressive.

Aggressive traders make money…investors go down with the sinkin ship.
Also lookin at solar plays like ESLR (viva Obama) and as always…

MINING JUNIORS BABY!!! look at where Yamana gold was a few years back and look at it now.

Retail is the final area where I am considering throwing some cash at ftm.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
on edge wrote:
tribunaldude wrote:
Buying C oversized 4X under 4 dollars today. Ploy worked with GM yesterday!

No, too risky to buy C. Some good trades can be made by buying JPM, BAC or any other financial that is falling in sympathy with Citibank. This way you take advantage of unjust panic selling. Value investors step in, the price goes up and you pocket the change.

I can’t believe a serious person would even entertain the ramblings of TD.

He has missed on every single thing he has predicted, and demonstrates the wisdom of a 2 year-old when it comes to making money.

I think anything in the banking industry is too risky for an investor.

Stick with companies that make stuff, and sell stuff with low PE’s (sub 10 is best) - MO, GE, PM, WMT (not my favorite as it has a PE of around 15 - but will be strong in weak times), etc. [/quote]

40

When economies start to heat up and commodity prices start back up… go long AUDJPY or other carry trade pairs.