[quote]on edge wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
on edge wrote:
Headhunter wrote:
Want to know what the stock market is going to do? I’ve found the best predictive method — worldwide shipping.
If shipping turns down, economies are turning down, and vice versa. Go to the site and compare the BDI with its 200 day moving avergae. Now compare to the SP 500. Voila! You’ve got your own crystal ball!
Ok, teacher, is it your contention that an investor should buy in now with such a huge separation from the 200 day average, essentially betting on a movement back toward that average as history has shown or to wait longer for shipping to increase from these levels?
Only if you want to gamble. Otherwise, wait until the index moves above its 200 moving average. Use the logarithmic chart for more clarity.
The cool thing about the BDI is that it involves no speculation. It can’t be bought or sold, just used. Its pure data. Very cool!
I’m not getting it. If one were to strictly follow the approach of being in the S&P 500 when the 200 day BDI is above the S&P and being out when it’s below it doesn’t work out that well.
The investor would get in mid to late '02 and would be golden until he gets out mid '05. He would then miss out on the continued run up until mid '07. Worse, he would get in at that point and be in up until a couple of months ago. Losing massive amounts of cash.[/quote]
The chart has you going in around mid/late 2006.
Look at the BDI Recent — out in June or July 2008. True, you won’t avoid all losses though; no system is perfect. But it does get you in on the big moves up and gets you out before you get hammered. How many people bailed in June or July, just before the collapse? Warren Buffet bought GE at 22, for ex.
Alcoa and Century are looking very good right now as a long term investment. I’m waiting a little while on those, but they look like some of my next picks.
I’m also hoping GE breaks downward a little (maybe a lot) to reduce my avg. cost per share. $15.00 or so would be nice.
I think gasoline is headed closer to a dollar a gallon. That would be my low if I wanted to be long in oil.
XOM is trading 8X, but I think that is a little misleading given the free fall in the oil market. Wait for the next quarter, or the one after that, and you will see the PE go up.
The lower the price falls, the less attractive exploration/drilling companies should be to you.
It needs to be at $65 or above to make domestic and offshore to be profitable enough to go after it.
Time to buy, bear market rally begins in earnest today!
"Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) – Stocks have fallen so far that 2,267 companies around the globe are offering profits to investors for free. That?s eight times as many as at the end of the last bear market, when the shares rose 115 percent over the next year.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in New York, Danieli SpA in Buttrio, Italy and Seoul-based Namyang Dairy Products Co. hold more cash than the value of their stock and debt as the slowing world economy wiped out $32 trillion in capitalization this year. Companies in the MSCI World Index trade for an average $1.17 per dollar of net assets, the lowest since at least 1995, and 39 percent sell at a discount to shareholder equity, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The cash-rich companies allow investors to pay nothing for future earnings"
I made a market prediction a few weeks ago. I think I predicted we would have a bear market rally that would take us to about 1200 in the S&P 500. It turned out I was completely wrong, the market just kept falling instead.
Never the less, I’m calling for a (continued) snap back rally from here. Unfortunately I can’t foresee it being very satisfying. The technicals allow for a rally to take us all the way back up to 1200 which would be awesome, but I don’t see that we have time for that to happen.
We will be hitting Earnings Season in 5 weeks and that will roll right into Tax Loss Selling season. I can only see safely staying in this market for another 4 weeks or so. And, I can’t see the S&P getting much higher than about 1050 in that time.
Speaking of tax loss selling. I’m kind of pissed off. While I’ve taken big losses in tax free accounts I’m actually well into the green in my taxable account. If I count stocks I’m still holding, I’m way, WAY into the green. It kind of sucks that I’m going to be paying for tax gains on a year I’ve been hammered.
As of yesterday, the technical indicators I use show the following as buys;
EZA - South Africa
EWH - Hong Kong
EWS - Singapore
FXI - China
GDX - Gold miners
I’m not saying these are sure things, nothing is. I’m saying they are statistically favorable. I should also say I consider them trading positions since, as I stated above, I don’t feel comfortable holding into the upcoming earnings season.
[quote]on edge wrote:
As of yesterday, the technical indicators I use show the following as buys;
EZA - South Africa
EWH - Hong Kong
EWS - Singapore
FXI - China
GDX - Gold miners
I’m not saying these are sure things, nothing is. I’m saying they are statistically favorable. I should also say I consider them trading positions since, as I stated above, I don’t feel comfortable holding into the upcoming earnings season.[/quote]
This is a very tough environment — investors are suspicious of all stocks right now. If the auto bailout fails, then its a depression for sure. Cash, gold and silver coins, and gold mining stocks would be, IMHO, the only things worth owning. Gold will always be worth something to somebody, esp compared to currency.
It may be that the era of fiat money is coming to an end, because no one trusts it. No one is left to trick.
[quote]on edge wrote:
As of yesterday, the technical indicators I use show the following as buys;
EZA - South Africa
EWH - Hong Kong
EWS - Singapore
FXI - China
GDX - Gold miners
I’m not saying these are sure things, nothing is. I’m saying they are statistically favorable. I should also say I consider them trading positions since, as I stated above, I don’t feel comfortable holding into the upcoming earnings season.[/quote]
You sound like Kramer. I think you should be shot.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
on edge wrote:
As of yesterday, the technical indicators I use show the following as buys;
EZA - South Africa
EWH - Hong Kong
EWS - Singapore
FXI - China
GDX - Gold miners
I’m not saying these are sure things, nothing is. I’m saying they are statistically favorable. I should also say I consider them trading positions since, as I stated above, I don’t feel comfortable holding into the upcoming earnings season.
You sound like Kramer. I think you should be shot. [/quote]
Why? This is a stock market thread. I’m sharing what I see and what I’m doing. I bought FXI yesterday and I’m getting out if it moves below 29 (it’s close now) or I’ll be getting out before I leave for vacation which will be the 24th.
I like to hear how other people are approaching it and if anyone’s interested I’ll share how I’m approaching it. It’s not like I’m trying to front run stocks or anything like that.
Regarding Kramer, I don’t have cable or satelite. I’ve never seen his show except for brief news clips and stuff like that. If he’s saying similar things to what I’m saying, I really don’t know what to make of it… if it should be cause for me to be concerned or validated, I don’t know.
where does a college kid - like you - get all the money he loses? [/quote]
I’m guessing you pay more in taxes than he makes with all of this stuff.
I have to admit that I’m so damn wary of this market that I’ve switched our accounts over to mutual funds, like Fidelity’s Contrafund. If one company vanishes, its only a small portion of the total assets.
where does a college kid - like you - get all the money he loses?
I’m guessing you pay more in taxes than he makes with all of this stuff.
I have to admit that I’m so damn wary of this market that I’ve switched our accounts over to mutual funds, like Fidelity’s Contrafund. If one company vanishes, its only a small portion of the total assets.
Won’t hit any home runs but does spread the risk.
[/quote]
Umm…loses what? my etrade portfolio shows a 600% gain for the month (albeit I play with less than 5% of my available funds) withou doing any subcaps…but the actual monetary gain for the month is less than 50K dollars so HH may actually be right. I told everyne to swing trade C and F but o one listened.
I swing trade regulars these days (usually closing in a couple of days), and work with 3 promoters pushing exploration-based subcaps operating in Vancouver, Canada (run a newsletter for BEacon and blueSky) I also have financial responsibility for a few online dating sites and asian webcam cos…so there’s where I pull in money lol.
[quote]on edge wrote:
rainjack wrote:
on edge wrote:
As of yesterday, the technical indicators I use show the following as buys;
EZA - South Africa
EWH - Hong Kong
EWS - Singapore
FXI - China
GDX - Gold miners
I’m not saying these are sure things, nothing is. I’m saying they are statistically favorable. I should also say I consider them trading positions since, as I stated above, I don’t feel comfortable holding into the upcoming earnings season.
You sound like Kramer. I think you should be shot.
Why? This is a stock market thread. I’m sharing what I see and what I’m doing. I bought FXI yesterday and I’m getting out if it moves below 29 (it’s close now) or I’ll be getting out before I leave for vacation which will be the 24th.
[/quote]
I rethought this after looking at the calendar last night. If the market doesn’t tank, I’ll probably stay in through the 1st week in January. The market probably won’t tank between Christmas and New Year, and I’ll have a computer available anyway. There’s a good chance the market will run up the first week of January before earnings start coming in.
Does anyone think they have a good idea of how tax loss selling will affect things through April 15?