Also Trump himself may be Bulletproof among his supporters but the intent isn’t to drop his support as much as it is to rally support against him. People won’t be voting for Hilary but against Trump, Trumps struggle would be to convince enough people that he isn’t so scary as to prompt them to go out and vote for Hilary.
I’m really just examining the popular vote here though. What I think is more dynamic is how the electoral college will play out, I think it’s quite possible that Trump could lose handily in the popular vote but win the electoral college through some dramatic shifts in the typical red/blue lineup
Right, we are divided. But this is the time to be divided…right now in mid March eight months away from the general election. People always make a mistake judging future activities based upon what is happening now. Almost like the disclaimer on a stock “prior performance has no bearing on future performance” or something like that. I’ve seen it many times in politics.
While it is true I can’t remember when it has been this divisive, it’s still the same game.
If Trump is the nominee I am not saying that every republican will jump for joy on election day in November. But looking down the barrel of a potential President Hillary Clinton most will come around and take the lesser of two evils. Knowing that Hillary will absolutely appoint left wing justices, raise taxes, continue to deplete the military, bow to the global warming nut jobs and on and on…They will vote for Donald Trump…or at least enough of them. Not because they like him but because they don’t want to be responsible for four years of Hillary who will absolutely change America for the worse permanently.
“Wha boo hoo so will Donald Trump”
We don’t KNOW that do we?
What we do know is that he will most likely be surrounded by republican advisors. And we also know that regardless of his personal beliefs he will want to get reelected in four years and not suffer a humiliating defeat in a primary. And we know that in most cases people will usually do what is in their own best interest. That’s why it doesn’t bother me as much that he was…or even is not conservative enough at heart. I don’t think he is dumb enough to act on any liberal instincts he may have for reasons that I’ve mentioned. And as I’ve said we know all about Hillary. Voting for a third party candidate does in fact help Hillary get elected and that is something that most republicans cannot stomach.
The safest bet is on Trump and thinking people who truly understand human nature know this.
Trump could win in areas where republicans usually lose. Blue collar democrat states for example could easily vote for Trump. This would throw a large monkey wrench in the DNC strategy book. Trump buried Rubo in his own home state of Florida. Know why? Two words, senior citizens. They love Trump. And as you know Florida is a must win state for any GOP candidate as is Ohio. And Trump came within 8 or so points of defeating a very popular Ohio Governor in John Kasich. Now imagine Kasich as Trump’s running mate. Ohio is a lock, Florida is a lock. The South will be a lock as they despise Hillary. Virginia will go for the GOP as Hillary has been threatening the coal industry…and this will continue as she has to pander to her base in order to at least try to get them out to vote…Throw in a few states that usually go for the dems like PA perhaps. Maybe we even pick-up NJ a very blue collar democrat state. Chris Christie can also help him there.
And if Trump is smart he will bring on Ted Cruz. Perhaps promise a spot on the Supreme Court. Now you have most (not all some are knot heads) of the Cruz supporters.
And voila we have a republican President. Not the one we wanted of course, not even someone who was on my top 14 or so candidates. But someone far better than the evil witch that is Hillary Clinton.
I think you may be underestimating the resentment towards Trump, it’s different than the usual party bickering. Keep in mind it is not based on what Trump would do or wouldn’t do for the next 4 years as president as much as the direction it would put the GOP and conservative movement in for the next 20 years. The real question is just to what degree it will hold on.
The people that refuse to vote for Trump in the general don’t see their dissent as a vote for Hillary(myself included) or flat out don’t care.
I’m not quoting your long post only because it becomes almost impossible to follow when it gets that long.
When you mention the Conservative movement having “lost it,” it just doesn’t show up that way in the data. Look at the voting data, Republicans have made huge gains when firmly opposing Obama, both in 2010 and 2014. As far as Romney losing in 2012, that was due to Romney being seen as a pussy, not from any real strength from Obama.
But I think that is exactly what defines the GOP as “losing it” - all the gains made in 2010 and 2014 (and in state houses, a really big deal) poised the GOP to capitalize on it in 2016 - and the party is a mess, and the plan and progress has been turned on its head.
Those gains didn’t produce Trump. Trump isn’t the natural outgrowth of those gains. He came out of nowhere, and GOP voters are rejecting the politicians and ideas that built the gains of the last few years.
And yes, as a result, the GOP has lost it - instead of building on the success you note, the voters are acting angry at the ones who built it and are willing to risk it all on one of the worst candidates America has ever seen and a rafical departure from principles. How is that a sane strategy?
The ideas that built those gains are, “Stop Obama.” I think a lot of people are turning to Trump out of desperation.
After two landslide elections Republicans have done nothing but capitulate.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Republicans are far from obstructionists. Obama has been able to get almost everything he wants. Sure he gets a little backlash at first, enough to convince the uninformed that the country would be perfect if everyone in congress would get along. But they cave and Obama wins.
My read on Trump supporters is they are tired of being told if they just vote one more time for the R candidate, then the progressive dry rot of the country will stop, but it hasn’t. Sadly if their attention span were just a little longer, there were a few candidates in the race (and one still is), coupled with the majority in congress, that could actually halt our socialist decay. But to Trump voters enough is enough right now. They will coalesce behind a cult of personality.
Your anger is misplaced. This should not be about why Trump is doing well, but more about why the other candidates aren’t.
Why is Trump the only one tapping into this electorate, and the others still clueless while preaching the same bullshit platitudes ? Anyone one of these clowns with half a brain, would find a way to tap into what Trump is saying without the vulgarity and abrasiveness.
Rubio talked about building the Republican Party, when he average Joe is thinking, how the fuck does that help me pay my mortgage ! You have Jeb, so utterly clueless to not consider the anger lingering from his brother, then trots out his mom and dad to help him as he struggles. Kasich is humble and thoughtful, but he is so quiet, you hardly know he is in the room. Closed mouths don’t get fed.
Trump is like the girl who surrounds herself with fat friends to make himself look skinny, he is surrounded by fools (with the exception of Cruz).
The notion that republicans in the house or senate have capitulated to Obama seems to be a pretty common one, I’m not saying it’s not the case but I personally don’t know what it’s based on. From what I’ve seen it appears that the amount amount of legislature the president has signed off on has plummeted since the shift in congress. It seems that most of the uproar regarding Obama has been lately due to his actions in circumventing congress and abusing the power of the executive branch.
I’m sure there are specific examples so hopefully you or someone else can list them out. But at least as far as my knowledge is concerned there isn’t too much more that Congress could practically do short of impeaching Obama.
Although this stops a 2014 it shows a historic drop when Republicans took the House in 2011. Ironically people on the same side of the political spectrum are criticizing congress as being “do nothing” politicians. When you have such a toxic political environment and the most liberal president in modern history what exactly is expected to happen? The whole system is geared to gridlock when the various balances of power don’t have an common ground.
This article, particularly the last passage written by Brooks, encapsulates my feelings towards Trump.
Trumps is doing well because he is bringing light to a legitimate group of Americans that are feeling left behind.
And they are! And I feel sympathy for them!
But Trump is just a bad candidate. He really is. At one point I thought of him as a harmless demagogue, but now I’m starting to consider that he’s a legitimate danger to our country if he somehow finds himself President, which is not as impossible as people (such as Brooks here) seem to think it is.
I truly do hope that the Republican Party establishment doesn’t rally behind Trump simply because they want to win the Presidential election.
I think the people that support Trump are the true disspossessed of America, and their demands NEED to be heard.
And it really is a genuine outrage for me personally that the only person in our politics today who’s seemingly speaking for these people is Trump.
I think that’s the true tragedy of the Presidential campaign of '16.
The resentment right now…eight months from now most likely not so much. As for one man taking a party in one direction for 20 years, I suppose it could happen but Trump is not that man. Reagan was a strong and very popular President who crushed his final opponent in 1984 winning 49 out of 50 states was the party taken in a conservative direction for the next 20 years? Nope. His VP George H W Bush was a middle of the road republican. And that was that…