[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
orion wrote:
…
I think we all have learned one thing by now, have no nuclear weapon and you risk getting your ass kicked, have nuclear weapons and you are safe.
Safe, not from Iran, but from the US.
This fact has been painfully obvious to every tin-pot dictator in the world for about 62 years now. But it’s not just the U.S. - No one is going to invade a nuclear-armed country.
Which is why, if one country in a region gets the bomb, then the others immediately want it - particularly if the country that obtains the bomb first has aspirations on regional hegemony and is different ethnically (Persian v. Arab) and religiously (Shia v. Sunni) from the majority of other countries.
After that, to Lixy’s point, it’s a domino effect. Morocco doesn’t necessarily want the bomb because Iran has it - but the fact Iran has it makes Egypt want it, and Morocco wants it because Egypt wants it…
orion wrote:
The time to get nuclear weapons is obviously right now, while the US is occupied in Iraq and there is a strong anti-war sentiment in the US.
It takes about 10 years to build nukes from scratch so they need to get their act together soon, the fact that more than one country developes them makes a move against single country by the US or Israel much less likely.
One would think that the large countries in Europe wouldn’t be too thrilled with the idea of a nuclear middle east either, but apparently the U.S. is the only country that would move to stop it?
[/quote]
Of course this could lead to a new arms race.
It is just that US policies are in part responsible for that arms race (wo else could they be afraid of?) and yet the US is unable to stop them.
So Europe does not especially appreciate their quest for nuclear weapons but we do not have the means, nor the desire, to stop them militarily.
So what options are left if not diplomatic and economic pressure?
Unfortunately the US would have to lead the way or at least co-operate and I see neither in the near future.