That Awful Economy.

[quote]hspder wrote:
b) Universal Health Care system designed to reduce US health care costs and actually improve preventative health – including, but not limited to, reducing the obesity problem – in order to also reduce future health costs and increase productivity (by curbing productivity losses due to poor health)

c) Reduction in tuition costs, increase in education subsidies and other incentives to increase the education level of Americans, along with targeted initiatives to bring the US to the forefront of every scientific and technological area, creating thousands of high-profile, high-paying jobs that we desperately need.
[/quote]

I don’t see any problem with A and D, but wouldn’t a Universal Health Care system pretty much ruin physicians? What is stopping universities from simply increasing tuition costs to match subsidies?

[quote]grew7 wrote:
hspder wrote:
b) Universal Health Care system designed to reduce US health care costs and actually improve preventative health – including, but not limited to, reducing the obesity problem – in order to also reduce future health costs and increase productivity (by curbing productivity losses due to poor health)

c) Reduction in tuition costs, increase in education subsidies and other incentives to increase the education level of Americans, along with targeted initiatives to bring the US to the forefront of every scientific and technological area, creating thousands of high-profile, high-paying jobs that we desperately need.

I don’t see any problem with A and D, but wouldn’t a Universal Health Care system pretty much ruin physicians?
[/quote]

There’s no reason it would, if properly done. It didn’t in most countries that has it. I’m not saying it’s easy – it’s not – I’m just saying it needs to be done. And even many conservatives – like bigflamer – agree with me.

[quote]grew7 wrote:
What is stopping universities from simply increasing tuition costs to match subsidies?[/quote]

Read again what I wrote. It starts with
“Reduction in tuition costs”. It’s easy to do that: just cap them, like they do in most civilized countries.

Stanford already charges ZERO tuition for students that come from lower income families ($45k or less). Others should do the same.

Of course, I am perfectly aware that it’s non trivial for Universities that are not as well endowed as we are (gee, I wonder why we are so well endowed… we must be doing SOMETHING right…), but it’s not impossible.

[quote]biltritewave wrote:
How can you say we should increase education subsidies? We now spend twice as much on education than most other industrialized countries and get half the return… clearly adding more money is not the answer. If we had teachers that werent paid an ass load regardless of competence then many of our problems would be diminished with regard to education[/quote]

I clearly addressed that. What part of “reducing tuition costs” do you not understand?

And, as I mentioned many times before, except for “celebrities” (who make a lot of money but pull a big part of the grants and hence are worth every penny) teachers and professors are grossly underpaid, far less than most professionals. I am one of the managers of the GSB budget and our salaries make up an extremely small percentage of the costs. The money is NOT going to our pockets, it’s going into equipment and other costs, which are much higher here than anywhere else in the world – much like in healthcare (which has absurd equipment and drug costs).

[quote]biltritewave wrote:
also, what kind of tax are you advocating. I am all for switching to a consumption driven tax rather than a production driven tax but the chances of that happening any time soon…doubtful. [/quote]

I have to admit I am extremely surprised to see a conservative advocating a consumption tax…

Anyway, I’ve addressed that subject many times before – look it up in the archives.

hspdr,

I was wondering if you’ve had the opportunity to read “The Fair Tax Book” by Neal Boortz.

Flat tax or Consumption tax, I think that either would be an upgrade from where we are now. Although, since I am not an econimist, I will admit to not having an in depth understanding of either system.

My question to you would be, what do you see as the biggest detractor to the consumption tax? Flat tax?

Seriously, I’m curious since I view both as an improvement.

I’d favor a not-quite-flat tax. Reason being, a 13% tax is going to hit a family earning 35K more substantially than the same tax on a 100K family, all other things being equal, because 87% of 35K will go towards a higher portion of non-discretionary spending. There are economic reasons besides fairness that you would not want a huge disparity between the proportion of discretionary spending among classes.

[quote]zarathus wrote:
I’d favor a not-quite-flat tax. Reason being, a 13% tax is going to hit a family earning 35K more substantially than the same tax on a 100K family, all other things being equal, because 87% of 35K will go towards a higher portion of non-discretionary spending. There are economic reasons besides fairness that you would not want a huge disparity between the proportion of discretionary spending among classes. [/quote]

Most of the flat tax proposals I have seen exempt the first 35K - such that the effective tax rate on a family making 50K is only 4% of their gross wages, versus the effective tax rate on 100K of 8.45%

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Most of the flat tax proposals I have seen exempt the first 35K - such that the effective tax rate on a family making 50K is only 4% of their gross wages, versus the effective tax rate on 100K of 8.45%[/quote]

This, to me, is an example of why the flat tax would be a great idea. Simplicity on top of pumping a shit ton of cash into the economy. I wonder how much increase in state and federal revenue could be expected with the inception of a flat tax?

Also, how much could the government save if it could abolish the IRS? I don’t know, but I bet it’s a shit ton.

I have told people, since the first day I opened my practice, that I would gladly find another source of income if the gov’t would just go to a flat tax system.

In a perfect world we would abolish Soc Sec, and institute a flat tax.

Forbes for President.

[quote]bigflamer wrote:
I was wondering if you’ve had the opportunity to read “The Fair Tax Book” by Neal Boortz.

Flat tax or Consumption tax, I think that either would be an upgrade from where we are now. Although, since I am not an econimist, I will admit to not having an in depth understanding of either system.

My question to you would be, what do you see as the biggest detractor to the consumption tax? Flat tax?

Seriously, I’m curious since I view both as an improvement.
[/quote]

I’ve covered this extensively in the past. I’ll try to summarize it, but you might have to go to archives for details.

With regards to the flat tax, even assuming some serious cost savings, I’ve demonstrated mathematically that in order to maintain the current tax income, a flat tax would have to put a larger weight in the middle class (assuming, like rainjack correctly pointed out, that people under $35k would be exempt) that we have now (currently the middle class actually pays very little tax, if for nothing else because of the serious mortgages most middle class people have – mortgage interest is tax-deductible). I think we can all agree that, looking at the current increases in income disparity, that would further make the rich richer and send the middle class down the poverty line.

I’ve admitted I can be underestimating the tax savings, so what I’ve proposed is a two-step approach: we should start by dramatically simplifying the number of taxes and the tax code in general while keeping the same tax brackets we have now (maybe increasing them a bit to make up for removing things like property tax). Then we can assess the savings and, after we’ve exhausted all other simplification options, if the savings prove to allow it, then “flatten” the tax by reducing the higher brackets down to the middle class bracket.

Basically, just jumping into a flat tax without gouging the results would be insane.

I am firmly against consumption tax and have said I actually support the elimination of the Sales Tax altogether. I am a firm believer in demand-side economics (Keynesian Economics) and hence fundamentally against taxing that demand side, even if you remove all forms of income tax.

This is both for a) reasons of predictability and manageability – income is much more stable and predictable than demand and b) because of my belief that it is demand that drives the economy – if you tax the driver you’re in big trouble; it’s like keeping your car’s hand brake always engaged.

European experience has proved that I am right with the brutal effects of changes in VAT over there.

Extremely interesting report from PBS’ Nightly Business Report; pretty objective and unbiased, so you get all sides of the discussion:

"
Work In Progress - Workplace Risk
Thursday, May 25, 2006

DARREN GERSH, NBR CORRESPONDENT: Leeann Tiedt has been a home health care worker for a year. She’s a single mom, working part-time to support three children. She make about $9 an hour, that’s if her clients aren’t sick or out of town.

LEEANN TIEDT, HOME HEALTH CARE WORKER: Oh yes, it’s very difficult, very difficult right now. It’s a struggle sometimes. You have to omit certain things, or stuff like that.

GERSH: And one of those things this health care worker is now omitting is health insurance. Premiums have doubled in the last five years, and could soon cost her employer, independent living, more than it pays out in wages.

RITA GIOVANNONI, CEO, INDEPENDENT LIVING, INC.: It’s a tragedy, it’s wrong. It isn’t what should be happening in a community.

GERSH: To some analysts, the erosion of benefits is a sign the American workplace has become more insecure and employees are shouldering more economic risk on the job. Another sign: over the last five years, temporary work accounted for 10 percent of all private sector job growth.

JARED BERNSTEIN, ECONOMIC POLICY INSTITUTE: One of the things we see employers doing now is treating their workforce more like inventory. We call it just in time inventory employment. That is you staff up when demand is spiking and you staff down when demand falters.

GERSH: It’s one of the odd outcomes in our economy: Economic growth is higher on average and recessions shorter than they have been in decades, but many people feel more insecure? To many economists it doesn’t make sense.

BERNSTEIN: Unless you want to argue that it’s that very insecurity that’s fueling the growth in the flexibility, that by dint of deregulating, globalizing we have a more insecure workforce, but those very insecurities drive faster growth. But I don’t think that’s the kind of economy we want to build.

Although the impact of insecurity is low for low pay, low skill jobs, insecurity has a large productivity cost in high pay, high requirement positions – not only direct (productivity losses due to hiring process), but also indirect (reduced productivity due to stress and anxiety). And if we want to keep our quality of life, we want to build an economy on the shoulders of better paid jobs, not on cheap labor.

GERSH: Other analysts agree health insurance is in a crisis caused by rising health care costs, not just employers pulling the plug on job security. Flexible arrangements can be considered a strength of the American economy. Other countries may offer lifetime employment with secure benefits, but in those countries it’s much harder to find work. In the U.S. unemployment is lower, and job satisfaction is high, in part because people can leave jobs they don’t like and find others.

DAVID AUTOR, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, MIT: So there are tradeoffs. It would be great to have both complete employment security and always be able to find a new job when you need one. But by and large those two don’t seem to go together. The upside of flexibility is that it makes it easy for people to find jobs. The downside is they may not keep them as long as they would like.

GERSH: But that doesn’t mean everyone has the same job security they used to have. A college educated man certainly faces more competition – including overseas competition – than his father might have a generation ago. But a college-educated woman today has a much more stable career than her mother could ever have dreamed of.

DAVIS: Part of this sense of the rising insecurity of jobs is the people who thought they had a secure, stable job, many of them found out, no they didn’t. So there’s that failure to meet expectations.
"

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
Even when Clenis was by default enjoying the DotCom boom our unemployment figures were largely under reported.

The arguement regarding self-employment is used by every administration and laughed at by the other political party.

I say BS no matter which party is in power.

Our economy is still doing better than any other country.

As one of the self employed that are laughed at - I can say from experience that this should not be scoffed at.

I do over 300 tax returns a year. Well over half of them are self-employed. So these guys don’t count in the employment figures, but they are all fully employed.

Go figure. [/quote]

Gee, I’m convinced now that I know you do 200 self-employed American’s tax returns.

Who laughs at you because you are self employed?

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Forbes for President.[/quote]

That has been my mantra all along.

[quote]Marmadogg wrote:
rainjack wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
Even when Clenis was by default enjoying the DotCom boom our unemployment figures were largely under reported.

The arguement regarding self-employment is used by every administration and laughed at by the other political party.

I say BS no matter which party is in power.

Our economy is still doing better than any other country.

As one of the self employed that are laughed at - I can say from experience that this should not be scoffed at.

I do over 300 tax returns a year. Well over half of them are self-employed. So these guys don’t count in the employment figures, but they are all fully employed.

Go figure.

Gee, I’m convinced now that I know you do 200 self-employed American’s tax returns.

Who laughs at you because you are self employed?[/quote]

You said that both parties consider the self-employed a joke when factoring them back in to the unemployment figures.

My point - however anecdotal it might be - was that I don’t see how any party can over look the self employed, or how they shouldn’t play in the unemployment caclulations.

Maybe it’s a good thing that we fly under the radar.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
rainjack wrote:
Marmadogg wrote:
Even when Clenis was by default enjoying the DotCom boom our unemployment figures were largely under reported.

The arguement regarding self-employment is used by every administration and laughed at by the other political party.

I say BS no matter which party is in power.

Our economy is still doing better than any other country.

As one of the self employed that are laughed at - I can say from experience that this should not be scoffed at.

I do over 300 tax returns a year. Well over half of them are self-employed. So these guys don’t count in the employment figures, but they are all fully employed.

Go figure.

Gee, I’m convinced now that I know you do 200 self-employed American’s tax returns.

Who laughs at you because you are self employed?

You said that both parties consider the self-employed a joke when factoring them back in to the unemployment figures.

My point - however anecdotal it might be - was that I don’t see how any party can over look the self employed, or how they shouldn’t play in the unemployment caclulations.

Maybe it’s a good thing that we fly under the radar. [/quote]

Flying under DCs radar is always a good thing.

More news:

"
ECONOMIC REPORT
Inflation eats up April income gains
Core inflation up 2.1% in past year, fastest gain in a year

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:08 PM ET May 26, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Household incomes were flat, consumer spending was tepid and inflation was accelerating in April, putting the Federal Reserve in a pickle about interest rates.
With core inflation rising faster than the Fed wants, pressure is on Ben Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee to raise interest rates for a 17th straight meeting in late June. But with consumers reining in their spending, there’s ample reason for the Fed to hold rates steady.
Government data released Friday show that rising prices in April offset the best growth in wages in nearly two years.
Personal incomes rose 0.5% in the month, but consumer prices also rose 0.5%, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Real disposable incomes (inflation-adjusted and after-tax) fell 0.1%.
Real per-capita incomes fell 0.2%, the third decline this year.
Consumer spending increased 0.6% in nominal terms in April. In real, inflation-adjusted terms, spending increased 0.1%, starting the second quarter off on a weak note. Read the full government release.
Core inflation – as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index, excluding food and energy – rose 0.2% in April, as expected, after a 0.3% gain in March. Core inflation rose 2.1% in the past 12 months, the fastest gain since March 2005.
The increase in the core PCE index was 0.2497%, which rounded down to 0.2%, barely.
“On the surface, the markets were relieved that the core PCE was not up 0.3% like the core [consumer price index] but what is 0.001% between friends!” said Stu Hoffman, chief economist for PNC.
Treasurys were modestly higher on the day, with the yield on the 10-year note sitting at 5.05%. Stocks edged higher. See Market Snapshot.
The Fed believes growth will slow, but “will be unwilling to ignore a breach in the Fed’s core inflation comfort zone that shows no sign of reversing any time soon,” Stanley said.
“Together, the PCE core index and the consumption figures frame the [Federal Open Market Committee’s] dilemma for June 29 – the economy does seem to be slowing, probably by more than Fed officials generally expect, but inflation is sticky,” said economists at Goldman Sachs.
Above the comfort zone
Consumer prices including food and energy have risen 3.1% in the past year, down from a 3.3% pace in March.
Core inflation is now running slightly above the Federal Reserve’s informal “comfort zone” of 1% to 2%. But the Fed is more concerned about what inflation will do than what it has done. See our complete coverage of the Fed.
Fed officials have said they believe core inflation will accelerate temporarily, then recede once the impact of 16 rate hikes takes full effect to slow the economy and temper demand. In a letter released Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressman that core inflation remains well contained. See full story.
Inflation expectations, however, are rising. The University of Michigan reported Friday that consumers expect an inflation rate of 4% in the next year and 3.2% for the next five years, significantly higher than expected just a few months ago. See full story.
“At least as far as the general public is concerned, long-term inflation expectations are clearly not very well contained at this point,” said Ted Wieseman, an economist for Morgan Stanley.
The Fed meets at the end of June to consider further rate increases. Any further hikes are dependent on the data that come in. The Fed will see May data on payrolls, retail sales and consumer prices, but will not get another reading on the core PCE price index. Currently, a June rate hike is rated as a tossup.
With spending rising faster than incomes, the personal-savings rate fell to negative 1.6% in April from negative 1.4% in March. The savings rate has been negative for 11 consecutive months.
"

W/r/t inflation, the Fed is always trying to walk that fine line to figure out how far to ratchet the interest rates while the effects have yet to show – apparently it takes 6-12 months for the upticked interest rates to be reflected in the inflation numbers.

Chairman Bernanke and the FOMC view [the 1% to 2%] range as an intermediate target not a fixed, month to month target. To the extent the Fed and its staffers were projecting a temporary pick up in inflation in the first half of 2006, one that would subsequently moderate, April’s increase is not an issue. The issue is whether the outcome causes the Fed staff to alter its expectations of a moderation in inflation in the second half – and that is not likely to have occurred.
–Nomura Economics Research


ADDENDUM:

Excerpted from WSJ article:

It is a situation similar to what his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, faced three times in his 18 years as chairman, in 1989-90, 1994-95 and 1999-2000. In each case, he stopped raising rates before inflation peaked. Two episodes resulted in recession, one in a growth slowdown; in each, inflation ultimately ended lower than it began.

“This is a problem central banks have wrestled with for many, many years,” said Mark Gertler, a monetary economist at New York University. A 1995 study of historical experience ( Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission | NBER ) he wrote with Mr. Bernanke, then a Princeton University academic, found that economic growth begins to slow roughly six months after the Fed tightens monetary policy. But inflation doesn’t begin to ease until about year has passed.

The result often is an uncomfortable period when growth is slowing, inflation rising and the central bank facing a tough choice between higher rates and watchful waiting.

That may be where the U.S. economy is now. After a first-quarter surge, growth is slowing, as higher interest rates and energy prices take their toll on housing and consumer spending. It “seems pretty clear that the housing market is cooling,” Mr. Bernanke said Thursday, though the slowdown is quite “orderly and moderate.” But core inflation, which excludes food and energy, reached a one-year high of 2.3% in April.

[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
The result often is an uncomfortable period when growth is slowing, inflation rising and the central bank facing a tough choice between higher rates and watchful waiting.[/quote]

True. This has happened before, yes, but the problem (and the difference) this time is the unprecedented amount of debt. If increasing public debt does not actually provide long-lasting benefits and stabilize the economy – the economy’s cycles continue the same – it is not only pointless, it is not sustainable.

The fundamental problem is that we’re using monetarist techniques – rising interest rates – to address a demand problem.

We have the Government driving demand up and the Fed pushing it down.

It is inefficient and counter-productive.

We need to stop relying on the Fed to do a job that belongs squarely in the Government’s lap – either that, or have the Fed do the Federal budget instead of the Government… :slight_smile:

[quote]hspder wrote:
biltritewave wrote:
to claim that stanford is the best in the world along with harvard is laughable. I will bet 9 out to 10 people when someone says best university in the world, names Harvard, or Oxford…

As I said, I’ll give you Harvard. But not Oxford – but I’ll give you Cambridge:

http://ed.sjtu.edu.cn/rank/2005/ARWU2005_Top100.htm

Cambridge is one of the most leftist Universities in the world, even for European standards. In fact, there isn’t a SINGLE conservative in the city council, in great part due to the Cambridge students:

Stanford is, again, right after Harvard and Cambridge.

By the way, my other ultra-liberal alma mater, Berkeley, is right after Stanford.

So, let me correct myself – the TOP FOUR UNIVERSITIES IN THE WORLD – Harvard, Cambridge, Stanford and Berkeley – all “happen” to be ultra-liberal.

[/quote]

So THAT’S why the world is as fucked up as it is! Damn, this post made it all click for me! No wonder the world is turning into a shitpit!

Good post, Doc!

[quote]JustTheFacts wrote:
Rich-Poor Gap Gaining Attention
Washington - The income gap between the rich and the rest of the US population has become so wide, and is growing so fast, that it might eventually threaten the stability of democratic capitalism itself.

Is that a liberal’s talking point? Sure. But it’s also a line from the recent public testimony of a champion of the free market: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.
http://www.truthout.org/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/37/11852
[/quote]

This link is a good read. Until and unless society pays its teachers more (to attract top people to the field), that society is simply screwing itself. Short-term, underpaying teachers saves money. This policy makes teaching undesireable and leaves the field open to those who SHOULD NOT be teaching. This then becomes self-justfying: “We’re not paying those idiots and dolts more. They’re morons! They’re OVERPAID, blah, blah, blah…”

You can’t expect to get an effect without a cause, despite liberalism’s teachings to the contrary.

[quote]biltritewave wrote:
How can you say we should increase education subsidies? We now spend twice as much on education than most other industrialized countries and get half the return…clearly adding more money is not the answer. If we had teachers that werent paid an ass load regardless of competence then many of our problems would be diminished with regard to education

also, what kind of tax are you advocating. I am all for switching to a consumption driven tax rather than a production driven tax but the chances of that happening any time soon…doubtful.
[/quote]

Very little of this money you’re referring to is EVER seen by a teacher. The number of administrators has doubled since 1994 (don’t recall where I read that). Many old buildings are finally being replaced.

How many of you would like to work in your chosen profession for TWENTY years and earn less $50,000? Do you know that in many parts of the US, the beginning pay for a new teacher is $24,000 or so? For that, you get to teach children who’ve been ignored by parents and hate school with seething, almost psychotic loathing.

Enjoy!

HH