Tesla Motors

[quote]Adam Bomb wrote:
Db, the tesla was stranded in less than 10" of water, again it wasn’t even up to the wheel hubs. Conversely I was in our mkx plowing through 18"-24" of water with no issue, my fiancé drove through the same depth of water or deeper as the tesla in our mkz. Flat out they are not comparable to ICE cars in weather, if you want I will upload the pictures of corollas and saabs going through deeper water without issue.[/quote]

Come on, what kind of drawback to the car is that, though? Gee, don’t buy a Tesla, because if you do you could be in big trouble the one time in your entire life that you decide to drive through a foot of water!

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:
Some of my thoughts:

As a car guy, I know that the smell of gasoline and the sound of a car’s exhaust are undeniably intertwined with the mystique surrounding the automobile. My gut tells me that I don’t want to live in a world where a Ferrari sounds like my mom’s sewing machine. That being said, we already live in a world of electric cars, what we’re really talking about here is electric propulsion. We no longer have ignition points, we have electronic ignitions. An entry level sedan has enough electronics to have controlled the first space shuttle.

Manufacturers are moving towards electric power steering, electric ABS, electromagnetic suspension, etc. Every area of the auto has moved away from mechanical controls and towards electronic or electrical-based controls. It’s ignorant to think that propulsion won’t move in the same direction.

As an enthusiast, I look forward to the flat torque curve, the potential for a lower center of gravity, the potential for an overall lighter auto as battery technology progresses, and the new shapes designers are going to develop as they don’t have to accommodate an IC engine. I think the idea of each wheel having it’s own motor is terribly exciting.

That being said, I don’t think Tesla will be the company that brings us to this point. I think the existing major car companies have the dealer networks in place, the tooling for most of the car already written down, the R&D departments, the parts distributorships, etc…everything else that goes into 1) developing a car, 2) safety testing it, 3) bringing it to market and then marketing it, and 4) servicing the vehicle for both in and out of warranty claims.

Lastly, the move towards electric propulsion won’t come at the passenger car level. There are too many problems with range, charging stations, etc. It will start with fleet vehicles that do a days worth of short trips like UPS and Fed Ex trucks. These vehicles then go back to a central garage where they can be charged and serviced by specially trained mechanics.

I wouldn’t buy an electric car right now because there are next to no independent mechanics who are qualified to work on them. Another generation of mechanics will have to be trained before electric certified garages are as common as they need to be for consumer acceptance.[/quote]

A more likely scenario would be that Tesla comes up with some technology and licenses it to the other car manufacturers. Tesla doesn’t need all that infrastructure, they only need the technology.

I don’t know much about cars, though, so I’m not sure how close they really are.

I think it’s one scenario, maybe more likely, but highly improbably in the grand scheme of things. Toyota’s R&D budget is greater than Tesla’s market cap. Right now, Tesla is getting the low hanging fruit that the larger auto manufacturers neither need nor want. Significant advances in the field will come from companies like Johnson Controls, NEC, Sanyo, etc., not Tesla.

Do you want to back the people making the pick axes and shovels, or the gold miners?

[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Come on, what kind of drawback to the car is that, though? Gee, don’t buy a Tesla, because if you do you could be in big trouble the one time in your entire life that you decide to drive through a foot of water![/quote]

Pay no attention to the $62K brick on the side of the road. It’s a Tesla. He can afford it.

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]Adam Bomb wrote:
Db, the tesla was stranded in less than 10" of water, again it wasn’t even up to the wheel hubs. Conversely I was in our mkx plowing through 18"-24" of water with no issue, my fiancÃ?© drove through the same depth of water or deeper as the tesla in our mkz. Flat out they are not comparable to ICE cars in weather, if you want I will upload the pictures of corollas and saabs going through deeper water without issue.[/quote]

Come on, what kind of drawback to the car is that, though? Gee, don’t buy a Tesla, because if you do you could be in big trouble the one time in your entire life that you decide to drive through a foot of water![/quote]

I agree with DB. I don’t think that the typical Tesla buyer is looking for a car that can go through a foot of water.

james

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:
I think it’s one scenario, maybe more likely, but highly improbably in the grand scheme of things. Toyota’s R&D budget is greater than Tesla’s market cap. Right now, Tesla is getting the low hanging fruit that the larger auto manufacturers neither need nor want. Significant advances in the field will come from companies like Johnson Controls, NEC, Sanyo, etc., not Tesla.

Do you want to back the people making the pick axes and shovels, or the gold miners? [/quote]

I actually disagree with you on this point. I think that Tesla is exactly the company is going to create something really innovative because their entire R&D is about premium electric cars. People don’t really buy a Tesla because of the money saving, they buy them for the technology and that’s the reason I think they will innovate faster than Toyota. Toyota buyers are looking for that cheap alternative that will give them bigger savings not the technological flagship.

james

You may be right, it will certainly be interesting to see how things pan out over the next 5 - 10 years. Tesla’s R&D budget is miniscule compared to Toyota’s let alone the top 25 car makers in the world.

Here’s what I see as Tesla’s strengths:

No unions
No legacy pension costs
Federal and state tax credits (credits that reduce your overall tax liability dollar for dollar. These credits are often used as the down payment, thereby allowing people to purchase the car with no money down.)
Selling zero emission credits to other auto manufacturers (this allowed them to turn what would have been a $57MM 1Q loss in 2013 into a $11MM gain).

So far, none of that has anything to do with actually designing, manufacturing, and selling cars.

I think the test is to compare the Volt to the Tesla with regard to the amount of technology used. One of Tesla’s other strengths is that they have a strong sense of purpose and don’t have other departments within the company to contend with unlike offerings from Chevy or Toyota.

I wonder what the R&D for electric cars is at GM or Toyota. Not the total R&D for all cars but for electric cars specifically. It seems like they spend more money and effort on hybrid technology.

james

Ironically (coincidentally?), Toyota licensed the drivetrain for the plug-in RAV4 from Tesla even while they continue to develop their hybrid drivetrain (and license it out to others.)

Kinda shows you where Toyota thinks the future is heading doesn’t it?

Off topic a bit, but just imagine the freak out when State, Local and Federal government start taxing electric cars, because of the lost revenues on Fuels Taxes…

lol.

They will do a complete 180, from credits to additional taxes. I will laugh.

It is a couple decades away though. So no worries yet.

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Off topic a bit, but just imagine the freak out when State, Local and Federal government start taxing electric cars, because of the lost revenues on Fuels Taxes…

lol.

They will do a complete 180, from credits to additional taxes. I will laugh.

It is a couple decades away though. So no worries yet. [/quote]

It’s already started

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Off topic a bit, but just imagine the freak out when State, Local and Federal government start taxing electric cars, because of the lost revenues on Fuels Taxes…

lol.

They will do a complete 180, from credits to additional taxes. I will laugh.

It is a couple decades away though. So no worries yet. [/quote]

You may wind up with municipal mileage taxes (eg: the cost of your city sticker or plate renewal depends on how many miles you traveled that year) or increased tolls.

I think before we ever get to that point, the Feds and States will rescind the tax credits EV autos get under pressure from other car makers.

[quote]2busy wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Off topic a bit, but just imagine the freak out when State, Local and Federal government start taxing electric cars, because of the lost revenues on Fuels Taxes…

lol.

They will do a complete 180, from credits to additional taxes. I will laugh.

It is a couple decades away though. So no worries yet. [/quote]

It’s already started

[/quote]

haha, oh shit, either I’m way behind the curve or they are way ahead.

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:

I think before we ever get to that point, the Feds and States will rescind the tax credits EV autos get under pressure from other car makers.

[/quote]

That will certainly come, but depending on market share and subsequent financial strength, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those deals live on a long time, and the additional taxes get shifted to the consumer, much like oil & gas (to a degree).

It was a $100k brick on the side of the road, a nice fully loaded one.

Unless you live some where that gets less than 10" of rain annually I would expect to drive through some water at least once a year. I live in south FL, we have hurricanes, tropical storms, and a rainy season which lasts all summer long, if you can’t drive through a big puddle without bricking your elec. car then there goes the whole south Florida market. I grew up in Michigan and with midwestern summer storms we would get a ton of rain also and would have similar puddles / flooding. I’m not saying why can’t a tesla go through the same water as a lifted jeep with 33’s and a snorkel, I’m saying why can’t it go through the same puddle as a econobox '89 corolla without bricking.

I wish I had gotten a picture of the tesla in the puddle, your comments would be 180*. I’m a fan of the S, I think its a great looking and performing car (except for if you get it wet).

[quote]Adam Bomb wrote:
It was a $100k brick on the side of the road, a nice fully loaded one.

Unless you live some where that gets less than 10" of rain annually I would expect to drive through some water at least once a year. I live in south FL, we have hurricanes, tropical storms, and a rainy season which lasts all summer long, if you can’t drive through a big puddle without bricking your elec. car then there goes the whole south Florida market. I grew up in Michigan and with midwestern summer storms we would get a ton of rain also and would have similar puddles / flooding. I’m not saying why can’t a tesla go through the same water as a lifted jeep with 33’s and a snorkel, I’m saying why can’t it go through the same puddle as a econobox '89 corolla without bricking.

I wish I had gotten a picture of the tesla in the puddle, your comments would be 180*. I’m a fan of the S, I think its a great looking and performing car (except for if you get it wet).[/quote]

How do you even know that the car short-circuited in the first place? I’ve been doing a little bit of research into this issue and from everything I’ve found, short-circuiting the electric connectors under the car is simply not possible in 10" of water. The Model S actually has sensors in it that raise the car almost 2" above its normal ride height in this scenario, but that’s to keep the car itself from flooding. The electric connectors and the battery are both sealed water-tight. If they weren’t, I would think that this sort of issue would occur in any sort of heavy rain, not just from driving through floods.

I simply don’t think that the scenario you claim to have seen is even possible, unless this specific car had some sort of defective seal around its connectors.

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:

Do you want to back the people making the pick axes and shovels, or the gold miners? [/quote]

Would you equate selling drive trains with selling shovels or mining for gold?

Your argument about the big automakers having huge R&D budgets and thus will out innovate Tesla is not a sound argument based on history. History shows us most innovation comes from small up-start companies. Tesla is showing that history is once again repeating itself in the electric car market by having the best batteries, the best charging technology, the best drivetrains and by just being the coolest.

R&D departments in big companies are generally lazy and in a rut. They take their coffee breaks at 9, they take long lunches to go out for lunch or to play volley ball. They spend a ton of time socializing on the job and punch out right at 4pm. If an employee at one of these companies has a true thirst to innovate he is restrained by a limited budget, equipment he’s stuck with and negative people who squash ideas with all the reasons they won’t work instead of trying to find solutions to help make new ideas work.

Tesla is the perfect company for innovation. They are small yet they have big (relatively) R&D budgets. The employees are young and excited. They are in awe of Ellan Musk and think he is a man who is going to revolutionized the world. They want to be a part of what he is doing and they want to contribute to it. Toyota and Ford will never compete with Tesla in innovation.

Adam Bomb, I’m 48 years old and I’ve only gone thru 10 inches of water once in my life. That car you saw stuck doesn’t mean shit for most potential Tesla owners. Also, Tesla is only going to work out more kinks. Outlying examples is hardly going to mean their demise.

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:

Do you want to back the people making the pick axes and shovels, or the gold miners? [/quote]

Adam Bomb, I’m 48 years old and I’ve only gone thru 10 inches of water once in my life. That car you saw stuck doesn’t mean shit for most potential Tesla owners. Also, Tesla is only going to work out more kinks. Outlying examples is hardly going to mean their demise.[/quote]

I was driving down the street today and saw a car with a blown radiator. Better not buy that type of car.

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:

Do you want to back the people making the pick axes and shovels, or the gold miners? [/quote]

Adam Bomb, I’m 48 years old and I’ve only gone thru 10 inches of water once in my life. That car you saw stuck doesn’t mean shit for most potential Tesla owners. Also, Tesla is only going to work out more kinks. Outlying examples is hardly going to mean their demise.[/quote]

I was driving down the street today and saw a car with a blown radiator. Better not buy that type of car.[/quote]

How’s this for an idea? Buy a Tesla. No radiator.

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:

Do you want to back the people making the pick axes and shovels, or the gold miners? [/quote]

Adam Bomb, I’m 48 years old and I’ve only gone thru 10 inches of water once in my life. That car you saw stuck doesn’t mean shit for most potential Tesla owners. Also, Tesla is only going to work out more kinks. Outlying examples is hardly going to mean their demise.[/quote]

I was driving down the street today and saw a car with a blown radiator. Better not buy that type of car.[/quote]

How’s this for an idea? Buy a Tesla. No radiator.[/quote]

I can’t. I live in rural America, regularly drive 241 miles in a day, and don’t have any electric outlets at my house.