Don’t the big auto makers not really make much money selling cars, but instead make their real money by financing them (collecting interest on loans)?
[quote]waldo21212 wrote:
Don’t the big auto makers not really make much money selling cars, but instead make their real money by financing them (collecting interest on loans)?[/quote]
Audi makes all their money by making every single thing on their car an optional extra and over charging the shit out of them. This isn’t actually true, but it is insane how much they charge for the smallest things.
[quote]waldo21212 wrote:
Don’t the big auto makers not really make much money selling cars, but instead make their real money by financing them (collecting interest on loans)?[/quote]
I don’t know but I bet the government makes way more than the automakers. The car makers only make money once off a car they sale. Uncle Sam gets a cut every time a car gets sold. Most cars probably get sold 4 or 5 times.
[quote]on edge wrote:
[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:
Do you want to back the people making the pick axes and shovels, or the gold miners? [/quote]
Would you equate selling drive trains with selling shovels or mining for gold?
[/quote]
It’s more akin to looking for loose change under the couch cushions. Tesla-drivetrained RAV4’s sold 192 units in 2012 and a cumulative total of 402 through March of this year.
I think we need to really look at what we’re talking about. I see at least 5 entities here:
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Tesla the car manufacturer
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Tesla the EV parts supplier
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Tesla the EV industry consultants
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Tesla the stock
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Tesla the car
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I think the car manufacturer has dim prospects ahead. The US industrial landscape is littered with the dead bodies of auto manufacturers. Check out this list: List of automobile manufacturers of the United States - Wikipedia
Their fat margins are going to come under attack and more and more states require them to go through the traditional dealer network. They’re entirely dependent upon tax credits for their sales and selling clean air credits for their net income and it’s unclear how much sales will dip once the early adopters have purchased their cars but before widespread acceptance. They have to build out a charging infrastructure as well as a dealer network to handle repairs.
2 & 3) I think the EV parts supplier and consulting business has bright prospects. Toyota has already invested $50MM in Tesla and I would expect other companies to look to purchase Tesla outright if/when it’s stock price falls significantly. The acquirer would then bring the R&D in-house.
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The stock…who knows. It’s already nearly tripled this year on P/E expansion (it’s trading at nearly 100x next years forecasted earnings) and the recent short squeeze. Now that shares are readily available to borrow, I would expect that the bloom is off the rose.
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The car. I don’t know, I haven’t driven one but anything that will do 0 - 60 in 3.7 seconds has my interest.
[quote]Rattler wrote:
[quote]waldo21212 wrote:
Don’t the big auto makers not really make much money selling cars, but instead make their real money by financing them (collecting interest on loans)?[/quote]
Audi makes all their money by making every single thing on their car an optional extra and over charging the shit out of them. This isn’t actually true, but it is insane how much they charge for the smallest things. [/quote]
I belong to a bunch of car forums and some years ago we were discussing the most outrageous options. I think (in Finland) the stripes down hood and trunk of the Ferrari F430 Scuderia were a $44,000 option.
[quote]waldo21212 wrote:
[quote]DBCooper wrote:
[quote]waldo21212 wrote:
So do you people who believe in electric cars also support additional coal and nuclear power plants being built along with new high voltage transmission lines?
Or are you willing to only charge your cars when the wind is blowing?
As someone who makes money when power plants are built and the meters are spinning, I’m all for new electric load, but don’t understand the people who think you can add all this new load without the new power plants and other associated infrastructure (wires) to support it.[/quote]
Natural gas.[/quote]
Good point. So I take it people who are in favor of gas fired power plants are pro-fracking then? Cause if fracking goes away I’d hate to see what electric bills look like when we are even more dependent on natural gas for electricity and gas hits the prices it was 5-10 years ago.[/quote]
Build out is not necessary until there are an absurd percentage of cars on the road. Most charging happens off peak, when shit tons of electricity is grounded out because they can’t get rid of the stuff no matter how discounted.
Biggest issue will be keeping transformers cool on the grid. But we have that problem no anyway. Nighttime temps are not as low relative to day due to land use and yes, climate change. They are quite busy increasing the cooling capabilities on the larger transformers as they create outages during heat waves.
Second biggest issue is line sagging, again due to heat, but complicated by the de-regulation (really re-regulation) reduction of maintenance. Again we have this issue regardless of the small added load of charging your car.
Swap out your plasma TV for an LED and it’s almost wash…
[quote]Aggv wrote:
until coal stops being used for roughly 50% of electricity production it’s fucking stupid to buy an electric car for any reason other than being a smug liberal douche. [/quote]
the math is not with you, 10 minutes of opened minded googling will find you peer reviewed wellhead to wheel analysis for both BEV and IC engines.
Even at 100% coal, it’s STILL cheaper and cleaner per mile…
Even presuming current 100% coal, it’s STILL even less carbon once everything is factored in. It takes a lot to drill, transport, refine, distribute, pump… and then your subject to the enormous losses of a heat engine.
But the grid IS not 100% coal anywhere in the US. It is rapidly de-carbonizing. Wind and Gas are pushing the smallest of the older coal plants offline. It’s not an OBAMA/EPA conspiracy either. They just can’t compete in price per megawatt. The best thing about that though is not the de-carbonization. It is that most of the plants being retired are way past design life (built in the 20’s-50’s) and are god awful filthy even for old coal plants.
Even with a couple premature plant retirements NUKE is making more energy, primarily though improved maintenance and process capability drastically reducing downtime… This has offset some challenges Hydro has had recently (droughts)…
The biggest single thing we could do in the electric market would be High Voltage DC interconnects between the grids and perhaps long haul. Massive wind generation in stranded in West Texas due to the Texas grid being effectively isolated to the Texas.
Fracking has it’s problems. But it’s not what is in the papers. The initial burst of production is HUGE, but it brings up the fracking fluid. Instead of separating and selling the gas, SOP is to just dump it on a pond. This produces MASSIVE release of gasses, gasses which then can’t be sold. Oddly, there’s a way to capture the vast majority of this gas and it is insanely profitable to do so. But that’s not the way things are done, so they don’t. Funny how irrational we are as a species.
So DB, you think I’m either making this up just to bash tesla, or that the lady was stuck on the road in the middle of water and traffic while on her cell just because she felt like it was a convenient place to stop? The look of “stranded and I don’t know what to do” was written all over her face.
[quote]Adam Bomb wrote:
So DB, you think I’m either making this up just to bash tesla, or that the lady was stuck on the road in the middle of water and traffic while on her cell just because she felt like it was a convenient place to stop? The look of “stranded and I don’t know what to do” was written all over her face.[/quote]
I think you’re wrong when you say that the car shorted out.
The electric connectors in that car are sealed water tight. Perhaps she ran out of battery. Perhaps the car ran fine but she was ignorant enough to be unaware that she could continue through the water without getting electrocuted. Or perhaps she smartly realized that, even with the increased clearance the car automatically provides in deep water, the 7.5" of total ground clearance she got as a result still wasn’t enough to drive through 10" of water without getting a shitload of water on the floor of the interior.
The conclusion you jumped to shows that you clearly don’t a whole lot about these cars. Do you really think that Tesla would be stupid enough to put a car on the road that can short out in the rain?
Here’s a post off Tesla’s website forum that argues, like I did but from a different angle, that Tesla could lead a cultural revolution.
"Here’s how the weekly trip to the gas station will become obsolete:
Obviously, Tesla owners have charge stations at home and in various places around the interstate highway system.
But, via the work of Solarcity, shopping malls and other retail establishments will install solar carport parking very close to the entrances to places like Macy’s, Apple Store, Starbucks, and even Walmart. As soon as the car is parked and plugged in, the iPhone or Droid phone recognizes a customer charge account, offering free charging during the shopping experience if retail purchases are made. Payback points, and the like will tease the Tesla owner to make purchases and get charged cheaply of for free during the shopping experience. Over time, the number of charging ports will multiple, and gas guzzling vehicles will be pushed to park farther and farther from the store entrance. Brandname association with zero emission tech will enhance corp image and spur sales.
As critical mass of electric vehicles increase, employers will incentivize longer hours at work with access to subsidized electrical power. Again, Solarcity contracts with employers, likely high tech ones at first, to install rooftop solar panels to supply electric power not only for the office building HVAC and lighting, but also for commuters. Ideally, employees would receive even greater incentives for using public transit and carpooling, but a benefit program of low cost electric car charging would keep many employees happy.
Meanwhile, cities like San Francisco and New York will stop renewing gas station licenses, making access to fossil fuel within the inner city more expensive and difficult compared to recharging batteries."
I’m starting to think Solar City might be the better investment (ehem, gamble), at least short term.
Ya ever see the old science fiction movie Monster From The Id? This scientist guy discovered an abandoned highly advanced alien civilization. He spent years studying it and the master computer that ran the place tapped into his mind and basically did the bidding of the scientists unconcious mind. It was the monster from the scientist’s Id. The computer also had access to an unlimited power source left by the ancient civilization so the bidding of the man’s id was absolutely unstoppable.
Well, wether or not Solar City’s technology is any good, weather or not they are run very well, Tesla is going to be installing their products on on every charging station. Solar City is the monster, Tesla is the unlimited powder source and Elan Musk is the id.
Deep, I know.
Pretty good National Geographic piece on Tesla.
Today my 100 shares went up in value by 982 bucks. Yeeehaa.
I’m expecting many more such days. 1000+ dollars per share or bust.
[quote]on edge wrote:
Today my 100 shares went up in value by 982 bucks. Yeeehaa.
I’m expecting many more such days. 1000+ dollars per share or bust.[/quote]
Ahahahah, that’s some lofty expectations.
I am late to the party, but decided to add it to my portfolio today.
To your thousand dollar valuation!
Alright, so I went to a dealership today and I gotta say…
I’m totally sold.
This is the coolest consumer available technology since the cellphone. The motors are not much larger than my outstetched hand. The Model S has all trunk space under the front hood because there’s no engine. 1,000 less moving parts than the average automobile.
They had the base sitting in the dealership(without the body attached) and it’s unbelievable how spartan it is.
What Tesla has been able to accomplish seems embarrassing to auto engineers around the world and the automotive internal combustion engine.
I’m glad I’m not the only one I started by watching elon musk on a Ted talk and the guy is smart! His future includes space travel. His promise to give tesla owners free power stations that are powered with solar!!! Think about never buying gas again! I started watching the solar city stock for one month back in march and it went from 17 to 30 in a month my buddy and I started buying it up and I have seen nothing but promise! I think the solar tech is going to become so much more advanced and this cat seems to have a great deal of passion about this technology and seeing this dream become a reality !!! Very cool I’m in!!!
[quote]musclegym wrote:
I’m glad I’m not the only one I started by watching elon musk on a Ted talk and the guy is smart! His future includes space travel. His promise to give tesla owners free power stations that are powered with solar!!! Think about never buying gas again! I started watching the solar city stock for one month back in march and it went from 17 to 30 in a month my buddy and I started buying it up and I have seen nothing but promise! I think the solar tech is going to become so much more advanced and this cat seems to have a great deal of passion about this technology and seeing this dream become a reality !!! Very cool I’m in!!![/quote]
I also read where he is developing energy storing batteries for the solar systems!!! To completely be free of existing resources !storing the power you aren’t using will change everything for solar! Probably one of the biggest draw backs right now!
[quote]Anonymity wrote:
Alright, so I went to a dealership today and I gotta say…
I’m totally sold.
This is the coolest consumer available technology since the cellphone. The motors are not much larger than my outstetched hand. The Model S has all trunk space under the front hood because there’s no engine. 1,000 less moving parts than the average automobile.
They had the base sitting in the dealership(without the body attached) and it’s unbelievable how spartan it is.
What Tesla has been able to accomplish seems embarrassing to auto engineers around the world and the automotive internal combustion engine.[/quote]
Ah Anonymity, I just browsed the first page and see you were initially a skeptic. It’s great to see the product was good enough to turn you. I actually haven’t seen one up close and personal yet. The only time I’ve laid eyes was the brief drive by I mentioned in Idaho. I wouldn’t even have noticed but I was with someone who is a total car buff.
Nice excuse for a bump.
Shares were pulling back over 5% today during trading. My friend here at work said it might be a nice opportunity to buy. I said I wouldn’t touch it unless it pulled back to 90. He quietly bought 35 more shares. Now this awesome aftermarket news, he just made over 700 bucks with one earnings report!
Will this be a sell the news situation or is the stock going to make another run? My guess (my money) is we’re going for another run.