See How Kerry Will Lose The Debate

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
41

RSU,

“I hear you, but I disagree. I think criticizing Bush for his apparent lack of intelligence is perfectly appropriate and far more relavent than, say, criticisms of Clinton’s personal sexual behavior. It is my opinion that the holder of the highest office in the land ought to at least appear intelligent, if not actually be it.”

Bush’s intelligence is a perfectly legitimate issue - what I suggest is that he is not as dumb as his detractors believe, or want to believe, and that works to his advantage.

Case in point, 2000 election. Bush’s expectations in the debates were so low, all he had to do was string together a coherent sentence about policy and he exceeded expectations. He had nowhere to go but up, because his critics painted a picture that he was so ridiculously stupid, he’d be chopped liver in the debate. Gore, meanwhile, was trumpeted as a super-policy wonk - which he is - and it was predicted he would destroy Bush.

So, based on the assumptions and expectations, Bush was so low, he had nowhere to go but up, and Gore was so high, he had nowhere to go but down. Bush looked far better in the debates, for a number of reasons (Gore’s implosion was painful to watch), but it was in large part because he explained his piece much better than expected.

Despite evidence to the contrary, Bush detractors still insist he’s dumb as a box-of-rocks (even the author of Bushwhacked!, a longtime acquiantence of the Bush family, has made it clear the criticism is completely unfounded).

A little piece of practical advice to Bush critics - stop trying to paint Bush as a moron. He isn’t. And constantly creating ridiculously low expectations for the man only makes his job easier to look like a champion when he exceeds them.

42

thunderbolt23:

Very well stated. You captured the essence of why Bush will win the debate on Wednesday.

I would also add that Bush comes across as a likeable individual. He connects with his audience. This is something the Kerry people will have a difficult time showing with their candidate.

43

My mistake. The Presidential debate is on Thursday evening, not Wednesday as my previous post stated.

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I’m looking forward to the debates; however, as a Bush supporter I am a bit concerned that he won’t do as well as he did against Gore.

This time, he will be forced to be defensive. Whereas, in 2000 he was able to be offensive. I don’t know that a defensive person appears stronger to the general public than a person on the offense.

Given that, combined with the extensive experience that Kerry has on the Senate floor and litigation, I’m concerned that Kerry MIGHT have the ability to come off slightly better than Bush.

I’m certainly not placing any “bets” on the debates, but I still think Bush will prevail on Election Day.

45

Think back to the Reagen vs Mondale debate. Reagen was a sitting President, Mondale the challenger. Mondale had extensive experience as a Senator for many years. Plenty of debate experience, and Vice President for four years.

Some thought as you think today, Reagen being a sitting President would have to play defense and would not be as strong as he was vs Carter four years prior. They were wrong! The reason being that Reagen put Mondale on the defense first. In addition to that, and more importantly, Mondale came off as stuffy, egotistical and aristocratic, sound familiar? Reagen came off as the good natured, likeable man who new who he was and was comfortable in his own skin.

If the above sounds familiar it is! I think President Bush, while no Ronald Reagen by any means, will project confidence and come off as someone who is quite likeable. While Kerry seems to do the opposite when given the opportunity. In fact, it is my hunch that the more the American people see of John Kerry the less they like him (case in point, no bounce in the democratic convention-his personal showcase).

Kerry has a fundamental problem with this debate. If he trys to attack Bush he will look overly caustic and mean spirited. He can’t escape his demeanor and physical appearance. If he lays back and attempts the soft approach Bush will walk all over him, and he can do it without looking mean spirited!

Personally, I see no way for Kerry to win this debate, or the election. He does not have the personality, charisma or strength of conviction!

46

Why don’t we just watch the debates instead of listening to these blowhard pre-analysis mental masturbation fests?

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[quote]vroom wrote:
Why don’t we just watch the debates instead of listening to these blowhard pre-analysis mental masturbation fests?[/quote]

Speaking of which, where is your other hand?

Don’t tell me. I think we all know.

Just jokes man…

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vroom:

Why don’t we all just wait for world events to unfold before we talk about them. Good idea. The problem is none of us can do that!

49

I’m curious if any of the ABB crowd are able to give W. a second look?

I mean it sincerely.

Is there any part of W.'s platform that appeals to an ABB’r?

If W. is clearly more Presidential this evening, can the ABB’rs give him credit for it?

I’d love to be surprised.

JeffR

50

I’d like to address the whole thing on Kerry being a flip-flopper so to speak. One must remember that the world we live in is not set in stone and is fluid, that is, we are constantly gaining information on insight about subjects we once thought we knew, but in fact the new information allows us to see it in a different light and possibly have a different opinion.

One who cannot change with the times and adapt might make the mistake of, oh say, going into Iraq in order to get rid of WMDs, and, upon finding none, maybe flip-flop on the reasoning for going in? Just a hypothetical situation though, i’m sure.

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[quote]jackzepplin wrote:
I’m looking forward to the debates; however, as a Bush supporter I am a bit concerned that he won’t do as well as he did against Gore.

This time, he will be forced to be defensive. Whereas, in 2000 he was able to be offensive. I don’t know that a defensive person appears stronger to the general public than a person on the offense.

Given that, combined with the extensive experience that Kerry has on the Senate floor and litigation, I’m concerned that Kerry MIGHT have the ability to come off slightly better than Bush.

I’m certainly not placing any “bets” on the debates, but I still think Bush will prevail on Election Day.[/quote]

After just watching that debate, I stand by my concern. While I think Kerry is an idiot, I don’t think Bush did what he needed to lean this debate in his favor.

52

Having just watched the debate too, Kerry definitely won. Bush looked weak and wishy-washy, normally qualities more commonly associated with his opponent. Bush also rarely met questions head on but circled around questions and repeated ad infinitum the sort of simple statements that will find only find popularity with double digit IQ America.

53

Bush had several opportunities to nail Kerry, and he simply failed to do so. I wouldn’t say that Kerry “won”, regardless of what the internet polls are reflecting. I highly doubt that the immediate responders to the internet polls reflect the average American.

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[quote]deanosumo wrote:
simple statements that will find only find popularity with double digit IQ America.[/quote]

I agree with you totally, Kerry owned the evening. However, I believe the average IQ in America is 98…sad…very sad…

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Thread prediction:

As evidence in the Political Forum suggests, anyone who posts there opinion on this debate is going to lean toward their beloved candidate.

Thank you for your honest responses.

In other words, Kerry could’ve farted into the mic and the ABB/Kerry supporters would say that he won. And, Bush could’ve broke out in his personal rendition of ‘Squaredance Rap’ (Electric Boogaloo), and the Bush supporters would say it was in Bushes favor or at the very most a tie.

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[quote]jackzepplin wrote:
Thread prediction:

As evidence in the Political Forum suggests, anyone who posts there opinion on this debate is going to lean toward their beloved candidate.

Thank you for your honest responses.

In other words, Kerry could’ve farted into the mic and the ABB/Kerry supporters would say that he won. And, Bush could’ve broke out in his personal rendition of ‘Squaredance Rap’ (Electric Boogaloo), and the Bush supporters would say it was in Bushes favor or at the very most a tie.[/quote]

I agree that’s how responses will go, though I can’t understand how a Bushie could be pleased with his performance.

However, I was very worried about the debate. I think they are critical to Kerry’s sustanance and I was a bit on edge, hoping he’d perform okay. I think he did exactly what he should have done – showed that 1. he’s got a head on his shoulders 2. that he’s got plans for ways to fix Bush’s mistakes and 3. he’s got a vision for America’s future (that he hopes he has time to get to since much of his time will be cleaning up).

57

i thought he won. pretty solidly too. bush just looked stubborn, arrogant and detached. kerry stood clear and head and shoulders above k.

58

I thought bush won, oh well

59

Heh, not sure anyone else actually noticed, but did you see how the TV station had to show both of them at the same hight? If you taped it, you’ll notice the podium on the right was much higher on your screen.

Bush is 7 inches shorter than Kerry, and he looks tiny and frail compared to Kerry, so they weren’t allowed to show that. What a hoot.

Anyway, without picking a side completely, I will say that Kerry did a much better job of stating his policies or intentions than he has been given credit for in this forum.

He did a good job of explaining the “flip-flop” issue which is really such a dead horse anyway. He also explained importantly that yes, now that we are in Iraq, we have to finish it right.

At the same time, I will give Bush credit for being able to present himself a lot better than he is generally given credit for. I did think he was a bit flustered last night at times, whereas when Kerry was on the attack Bush didn’t really have the ability to counter, he just stuck to his guns.

Kerry had specifics, and Bush answered with nonspecifics. For example, on the homeland security issue, Kerry raised specfic actions that he’d take, and Bush countered with a lame “more money has been spent now” answer as if that solved it. It’s not all about dollar values.

It’s going to be very interesting to watch the rest of the debates. Will the undecided voters decide that Kerry really does have “one” stance and that he has a positive message instead of one of fear? Or, instead, will they choose to stick with Bush who certainly has an incredible will to tough out whatever issues he’s facing.

Finally, Iran and North Korea were very interesting points in the debate!

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My comments are on another thread entitled “Debate Discussion.”