Interesting. Bush has gained ground in the Zogby Battleground States poll and in the ABC-Washington Post poll – and these gains come in the face of a major media push for Mr. John Kerry. I still don’t think much of polls in general, but I kind of like the theory at the end of this, which I copied from Jim Geraghty’s “Kerry Spot” weblog:
WHERE DID THIS BIG BOUNCE FOR BUSH COME FROM? [07/27 03:28 PM]
Sean Hannity, among other conservatives here at the convention, are doing backflips over the lesser-noticed numbers in the ABC-Washington Post poll:
On who respondents trust more to handle the issue of terrorism, Bush has 55 percent, Kerry 37. A month ago, it was Bush 48, Kerry 47. Health Care? Bush 44, Kerry 47; a month ago it was Bush 38, Kerry 56. On Iraq, now it is Bush 52, Kerry 40; a month ago it was Bush 49, Kerry 47. On education, it’s Bush 44, Kerry 45; previously it was Bush 43, Kerry 52. And finally, on the economy it was Bush 47, Kerry 46, improving for the president from Bush 45, Kerry 50.
How can Kerry be losing ground in the month when he’s gotten his best press? Maybe it’s just as simple as the theory that the more voters see of Kerry, the less they like him.
This could explain it – consumer confidence hit a 2-year high. That number is very highly correlated to voting for the incumbent.
The Associated Press
Updated: 10:51 a.m. ET July 27, 2004
NEW YORK - Consumer confidence rose for the fourth straight month in July thanks to steady improvements in the job market, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, putting the indicator at a two-year high.
The New York-based research group reported that its index for consumer confidence rose to 106.1 in July, up from 102.8 in June and well ahead of the figure of 102.0 that investors had been expecting. It was the highest level for the indicator since June 2002.
Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board?s Consumer Research Center, said the gains were fueled by a better outlook for jobs, ?and unless the job market sours, consumer confidence should continue to post solid numbers.?
The survey is based on a sample of 5,000 U.S. households.
GUIDE Key economic indicators
Click an indicator name to learn more
Period Latest Prev.
? Consumer Confidence July* 106.1 102.8
? Retail sales June* -1.1% 1.4%
? GDP Q1 3.9% 4.1%
? ISM Index June* 61.1 62.8
? Factory Orders May* -0.3% -1.1%
? Unemployment Rate June 5.6% 5.6%
? Employment situation June* 112,000 235,000
? Consumer inflation June 1.9% 1.7%
? Housing starts June* 1,802,000 1,970,000
? Home sales June* 8,276,000 8,147,000
back to list | next
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Recent figures
July* 106.1
June 102.8
May 93.1
April 93.0
March 88.5
Feb. 88.5
Jan. 04 97.7
Dec. 94.8
Nov. 92.5
Oct. 81.7
Sept. 77.0
Aug. 81.7
What is it?
Consumer confidence is considered important because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The monthly Conference Board survey is one of the two most closely watched indicators of sentiment. Based on a mail-in survey sent to about 5,000 households. Results are converted to an index and expressed in comparison to the 1985 average of 100.
Source: The Conference Board
back to list | next
RETAIL SALES
Recent figures
June* -1.1%
May 1.4%
April -0.6%
March 2.0%
Feb. 1.0%
Jan. 04 0.5%
Dec. 0.2%
Nov. 1.2%
Oct. 0.2%
Sept. -0.5%
Aug. 1.1%
July 1.2%
What is it?
A broad measure of consumer spending trends. Includes sales of motor vehicles, clothing, food at both grocery stores and restaurants, electronics, building materials drugs and other items. Expressed as a percent change from previous month, adjusted for seasonal variations but not price changes.
Source: Census Bureau
back to list | next
GDP
Recent figures
Q1 3.9%
Q4 4.1%
Q3 8.2%
Q2 3.3%
Q1 2003 1.4%
Q4 1.4%
Q3 4.0%
Q2 1.3%
Q1 2002 5.0%
Q4 2.7%
Q3 -0.3%
Q2 -1.6%
What is it?
The gross domestic product is the broadest measure of the economy, comprising the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. It is reported quarterly with frequent revisions. Generally expressed as a percentage change from the previous quarter in “real” or inflation-adjusted terms. Economists presume real GDP is capable of growing at an annual rate of about 3.5 percent over the long term. When GDP declines over a sustained period of time the economy is considered to be in recession.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
back to list | next
ISM INDEX
Recent figures
June* 61.1
May 62.8
April 62.4
March 62.5
Feb. 61.4
Jan. 04 63.6
Dec. 63.4
Nov. 61.3
Oct. 57.0
Sept. 53.7
Aug. 54.7
July 51.8
What is it?
The first major indicator reported each month, considered a reliable assessment of how the manufacturing sector is performing. Based on a survey of executives done by the Institute for Supply Management, formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management. Responses are compiled and reported as an index number. A reading above 50 percent indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates it is shrinking.
Source: Institute for Supply Management
back to list | next
FACTORY ORDERS
Recent figures
May* -0.3%
April -1.1%
March 5.0%
Feb. 1.1%
Jan. 04 -0.9%
Dec. 1.8%
Nov. -0.9%
Oct. 2.4%
Sept. 1.4%
Aug. -0.3%
July 2.0%
June 1.9%
What is it?
Data on new orders for manufactured goods, adjusted for seasonal variation, offer a good indicator of the manufacturing sector’s health, closely watched because it is the most volatile part of the economy. Expressed as percent change from previous month.
Source: Census Bureau.
back to list | next
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Recent figures
June 5.6%
May 5.6%
April 5.6%
March 5.7%
Feb. 5.6%
Jan. 04 5.6%
Dec. 5.7%
Nov. 5.9%
Oct. 6.0%
Sept. 6.1%
Aug. 6.1%
July 6.2%
What is it?
One of the best known and most politically powerful economic indicators, the rate is calculated from a monthly survey among a sample of about 60,000 households. The rate is adjusted for seasonal variations, but unlike most economic statistics it is never revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
back to list | next
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION
Recent figures
June* 112,000
May 235,000
April 324,000
March 353,000
Feb. 83,000
Jan. 04 159,000
Dec. 8,000
Nov. 83,000
Oct. 88,000
Sept. 67,000
Aug. -25,000
July -45,000
What is it?
Represents the month-to-month change in jobs on payrolls of the nation’s business, government and non-profit establishments. Generally considered a more accurate indicator of labor market health than the unemployment rate. Analysts estimate the economy should add about 150,000 jobs monthly to keep up with the nation’s growing work force. Based on a sample of 300,000 establishments employing nearly a third of the nation’s workers, the figure is adjusted for seasonal variations and frequently revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
back to list | next
CONSUMER INFLATION
Recent figures
June 1.9%
May 1.7%
April 1.8%
March 1.6%
Feb. 1.2%
Jan. 04 1.1%
Dec. 1.1%
Nov. 1.1%
Oct. 1.3%
Sept. 1.2%
Aug. 1.3%
July 1.5%
What is it?
The most widely known and used measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index is based on the price of a "basket"of goods including food, beverages, fuel, medical care and clothing. Value refers to year-over-year change in “core” prices, excluding volatile food and energy categories.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
back to list | next
HOUSING STARTS
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
June* 1,802,000
May 1,970,000
April 1,963,000
March 2,000,000
Feb. 1,895,000
Jan. 04 1,934,000
Dec. 2,067,000
Nov. 2,054,000
Oct. 1,983,000
Sept. 1,922,000
Aug. 1,835,000
July 1,893,000
What is it?
A good indicator to assess demand for housing and construction industry health. Represents the number of new residential buildings, including single-family and multifamily homes, where construction was started. Expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Construction was started on 1.89 million new residential structures in 2003, the highest level since 1972.
Source: Census Bureau.
back to list | next
HOME SALES
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
June* 8,276,000
May 8,147,000
April 7,827,000
March 7,750,000
Feb. 7,295,000
Jan. 04 7,155,000
Dec. 7,490,000
Nov. 7,216,000
Oct. 7,491,000
Sept. 7,807,000
Aug. 7,649,000
July 7,286,000
What is it?
One of the bright spots of the economy in recent years, driven in part by historically low mortgage rates. Figure represents the sum of new and existing single-family home sales, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Sources: National Association of Realtors, Census Bureau
preliminary figures ? Print this
A measure of consumer expectations for future economic conditions rose sharply in June, while another one gauging their sense of current conditions edged higher. The group?s ?expectations index? jumped to 105.8 from 100.8 last month, while the ?present situation? index was up to 106.5 from 105.9.
The survey also found that consumers? expectations for the next six months were somewhat more optimistic than last month. Respondents who said they expected business conditions to worsen declined to 7.0 percent from 9.1 percent, while those expecting better conditions was relatively unchanged at 23.2 percent versus 23.5.
As for current conditions, the survey also painted a picture that was favorable overall, but with a few dark spots. About the same number of people as last month said they thought business conditions were ?good? ? 25.6 percent versus 25.8 percent.
But those saying conditions were ?bad? edged up to 19.1 percent from 17.4 percent. However, respondents saying that jobs seemed to be plentiful rose to 19.8 percent from 18.3 percent, and the number saying jobs were hard to get was essentially unchanged, at 26.0 percent versus 26.2 percent.
? 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
BB just love reading your posts. And your websites linked to what you post. You really drive the message home.
Rather On Convention: Dullsville
“CBS) Now it?s official: This convention really is duller than those the parties held four years ago. Inside the hall, it?s scripted down to the nanosecond. Outside the hall, security is battened down tighter than the lug nuts on a ?55 Ford. Remember DNC 2000?s anti-globalism protestors and the Rage Against the Machine concert in the Staples Center parking lot? Nothing of that sort this time around ? perhaps if they put an exercise wheel and a water bottle inside the so-called ?protestor?s cage? (a.k.a. ?Free-Speech Zone?)?..”
And I do think all this Bush bashing is not helping the Democrats either… Mean at the convention Al Gore was not Al Gore. He was "refined, was more subdued. Ted Kennedy was the same way. Also Dean and Hillary Clinton.
They were told tone down the Bush Bashing. During this convention…
ANd I know some of you would say, oh yes. well look what Bush is doing? In his attack ads on Kerry. And what is being said about him. Yes he is. But he is not, nor are the Republicans acting like many Dem are. Like so many in Hollywood and on the left and far are…Calling Bush every name in the book. Even saw websites calling for Bush to die. Or we must kill Bush. No world leader deserves this kind of treatment Bush is getting. ANd you see none of this with John Kerry. Don’t believe me? Well just go to this chilling website:
Man this is really scary stuff…Things of which are not getting reported either. And they should. And it is totally not needed. And thanks to Hollywood, Michael Moore, Move.org, and so many others, they are the ones fueling the fire even more.
And what is happening is this too, I think many of the things that Democrats are saying about Bush, and harping on, people are finding out, why that is not true, what they said about Bush.
Its like my Mom always says the truth no matter how hard you try to cover it up, will always come out in the end…
Hey, if Dan Rather is so bored by the convention, I have an idea… maybe the old fart should retire, and make room for someone who isn’t so jaded?
[/quote]
Mark this down – we officially agree. ANd he can take Jennings and Donaldson with him.
July 29, 2004, 7:55 a.m.
Every Penny Counts
Bush is ahead by half a cent.
Bush and Kerry are in a virtual dead heat according to the Iowa Electronic Market ? a winner-take-all futures market with a great track record of picking the victors in November. At midweek, Bush was trading at 50.5 cents and Kerry at 49.9 cents.
Kerry had taken a small lead going into the Democratic National Convention, his first lead of the year in the Iowa market. But Bush pulled ahead by the convention?s half-way point. Looks like the Boston con game ? ?We?re not really left liberals who believe in soaking the rich, high taxes, massive government spending, and wartime U.N. appeasement? ? is not working all that well.
Between Michael Moore and Teresa Heinz Kerry ? and not to mention the Woody Allen sperm-suit picture of Kerry leaked by NASA ? the Democrats have a bit of a PR problem. Bill Clinton couldn?t bail them out. Nor could any of the other big Dem guns, like Carter, Gore, and Dean. True, it?s not what you would call a really deep bench. But you?d think the Democrats would get a noticeable lift out of a week in the limelight.
The Iowa futures contracts, however, are not all rosy for the Republicans: The GOP could lose the Senate. At midweek in the market for the Senate, the RSlose contract was trading at 45.5 cents, the RSgain was at 43.1 cents, and the RShold was at a mere 11.4 cents.
For those who believe in lower taxes, this is not good. The fact that the Republican Senate can?t get a corporate tax cut passed, can?t make the Bush tax cuts on dividends and capital gains permanent, and can?t get a budget passed (all while continuing to press for a budget-busting pork-barrel highway bill) is undoubtedly playing a role in the bad news from the Iowa markets.
The House, however, is in a much more bullish position. At last look, the RHhold contract was trading at 45.5 cents, the RHgain issue at 39.5 cents, and the RHlose at a low 14.9 cents.
When you step back and look at all these results, there?s a hint that the November election could produce a Bush White House working with a Democratic Senate and a Republican House. In other words, preserving the president?s pro-investor tax-cut package is possible ? but it won?t be easy.
Undoubtedly, results from the Iowa Electronic Market have been a drag on the stock market for many months. In fact, economists Arthur Laffer and Tom Gallagher have published tight-fitting graphs that show a clear correlation between John Kerry?s rise in the Iowa and Tradesport.com markets and the slump in cyclical growth stocks and the overall stock market.
The expectation of multi-pronged rate-hiking by the Federal Reserve is another source of angst for the stock market. The Iowa market sponsors a pay-to-play vote on Fed monetary policy, and the news isn?t great. The FRup August contract shows a very high 90 cent price for a Fed rate hike at the next open market meeting, scheduled for August 10. The FRup contract for September shows a high 80 cent price probability for another rate hike at the Fed meeting scheduled for September 21.
Multi-pronged rate-hiking is not very helpful to George Bush either. The investor class is a core Bush constituency. If investors are in a bad mood over falling stocks and rising rates, they may not turn out sufficient margins in November to push Bush over the finish line. Pollster Scott Rasmussen finds only a 3 percentage-point advantage for Bush over Kerry when it comes to likely investor-class voters.
But at this stage of a very tight game, poll watchers take good news where they can get it. After two nights of liberal shenanigans in Boston, Bush had Kerry beat by half a penny. By the Republican convention he might have well more than a nickel?s chance of four more years.
? Larry Kudlow, NRO’s Economics Editor, is CEO of Kudlow & Co. and host with Jim Cramer of CNBC’s Kudlow & Cramer.
