The convention is over and I don’t see the bump in Kerry’s poll numbers that most candidates get.
An informal AOL poll (200,000 people) has Bush leading Kerry 53% to 47%. Zogby has Kerry leading by 3%. Other assorted polls show a 5% difference between the candidates.
It seems that Kerry should have gotten at least a 10% bounce from the convention.
Anyone have any other polls that they would like to quote?
[quote]ZEB wrote:
The convention is over and I don’t see the bump in Kerry’s poll numbers that most candidates get.
An informal AOL poll (200,000 people) has Bush leading Kerry 53% to 47%. Zogby has Kerry leading by 3%. Other assorted polls show a 5% difference between the candidates.
It seems that Kerry should have gotten at least a 10% bounce from the convention.
Anyone have any other polls that they would like to quote?[/quote]
Doesn’t it usually take a few weeks to a month to get accurate poll numbers? I know that the GOP was expecting that Kerry would get around a 15% bump up. Either way, I was curious about the same thing. I’m sure Lumpa or one of the other Kerry Lovers/Bush Haters can shed some light on this.
I hate polls. Still, a constant polling system should give some measure of what’s going on – kind of like measuring your body fat, in that it might not be accurate but it gives you an idea of the directions things are heading.
And Kerry’s expected “bump” was smaller than historical numbers would have indicated – an attempt, I think, to control for disappointment via lowered expectations.
As for the numbers, I wouldn’t give ANY credence to AOLs online poll – no controls whatsoever for representative sample. Still, as I pointed out in another thread, Bush’s numbers actually bumped up right before the Dem convention, which is a really bad sign for the Dems. We’ll see what happens.
There are so few undecided voters this year, I think it would be pretty tough for either candidate to get much of a bump. Isn’t the undecided number only like 6%? If so, even if Kerry won over half of them he still only gets a 3% bump.
BB -
I love Pinky and the Brain
A 15% bump is stastitically impossible this year, because not that many voters are undecided. The number of voters considered “in play” is more along the lines of 10% in total. It’s unlikely that all of those voters would verge hard for Kerry, based on the speech.
If I recall correctly, during the 2000 election, Gore didn’t see a blip in his numbers until 4 days after the convention.
I think looking at poll numbers on a daily basis is misleading (kind of like looking at data on the economy on a daily or weekly basis). You want to look at the overall long term trends instead. The long term trend is that Bush’s popularity is dropping.
Actually, Lumpy, the latest trends for Bush are pretty good. If you want to define “long term” as back to the top of his popularity back right after the fall of the Taliban and before the Dems started campaigning, you would have a point. However, if you look over the past couple months, Bush’s numbers have trended upwards.
The media wants it to be a horse race.
If I were you, I would consider factoring this into your thinking re: polls.
I just saw Zogby on TV. He was asked when we’d see a bounce for Kerry. He said there is no bounce for Kerry.
They appear to be unbiased and have a good polling system and interesting side polls.
Oh my! I just checked the Rasmussen poll, which is updated each day. Kerry-47% Bush-46%. As you know this is a statistical dead heat!
Every Presidential candidate in recent history has gotten at least an 8pt bump after his convention. Clinton got an 18 point bump after his convention. Even Al Gore got a significant bump. But…no bump for John Kerry. This is unprecedented and should not be ignored by the democratic elite! It seems that John Kerry’s candidacy is in real trouble!
Could it be that everyone who is going to vote for Kerry is already on board? Could Bush win all of the undecideds over after his convention?
We will know much more after the republican convention. If Bush gets anything over a 5pt bounce the democrats are surely headed for another defeat! (Which they are anyway regardless of the boucne, in my humble opinion)
I think this is all going to come down to the debates, not the conventions.
Bush says he’s really looking forward to his debate with Kerry. He said “it should be a fantabulous time”.
Zeb this is interesting, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Kerry’s numbers do better after the Republican convention then after his own. I say this because I don’t know many democrats (me included) who are really enthusiastic about Kerry but are really unhappy with Bush.
Now get on with bashing me for my views. 
My take for whatever it’s worth:
This may appear to be a problem for democrats, but the key here is that the voting public, including the undecideds, sense that this is a profoundly important election…it’s apples and oranges in comparison to the last three elections (e.g. the turnout is predicted to be 5-10% higher than the average of the last three elections this time around) In most years, the people who decide the election are the ones who make up their minds on the way to the polls and don’t know the first thing about the issues…that may not be the case this time around.
That said, I don’t think the lack of a bump on the heels of the Dem. convention should be deeply worrisome for democrats. W. still needs to get through 3 debates with JK, and that could be awfully ugly. Unless W. and the Republicans can find a way to get Nader up on stage to bail out the Pres., we could well see a Kerry bump there. Politically speaking at this point, for better or worse, I would far rather be John Kerry… Furthermore, Dick Cheney is dead weight, and his name has come to evoke something sinister in far too many Americans. This is a BIG problem for the Republicans.
With so much focus on the ‘horse race,’ and considering how much more exciting presidential politics are this year than in election years past, we ought not to forget that the next president, in addition to inheriting/continuing to lead the war on terror, will likely name two or three supreme court justices…this is huge.
The Vice President has never decided an election either way! Remember Dan Quayle vs Loyd Bensten? Disasterous debate for Quayle (“You are no John Kennedy”. However, Bush/Qyayle won the election. People vote for the top of the ticket! Always have, always will!
I remember many people claiming that Al Gore was the great debater. What happened? After the debates with Al Gore, Bush’s poll numbers went up! Debates are an expectation game. Gore was supposed to destroy Bush. Bush was supposed to look like a school boy out of his league. That didn’t happen, in fact Bush did quite well.
The same expectations are now on Kerry’s back. Since Kerry needs a charisma transplant and is unlikely to get one prior to the debates, I predict that Bush will win the debates!
By the way, the latest CNN/USA Today poll has President Bush at 50% and Kerry at 45%. According to this poll Bush got a bounce from the democratic convention.
Maybe it was Al Sharptons pointless diatribe that turned the tide for the republicans.
There are several reasons why Kerry is slipping in the polls:
SPRINGFIELD, Ohio - Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry said he plans to use private negotiations to persuade other heads of state to assist in reconstructing Iraq, but he does not envision sending more U.S. troops there.
Kerry said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that a new president can make a “fresh start” with world leaders who opposed the war.
“If we demonstrate an America that has a foreign policy that is smarter, more engaged … and more respectful of the world, we’re going to bring people to our side,” Kerry said. “We’re not only not going to put additional troops there, that’s the way to bring our troops home.”
In a separate interview broadcast Sunday on CNN’s “Late Edition,” Kerry declined to specify a precise timetable for withdrawing the 140,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. But he did say, “I would consider it an unsuccessful policy if I hadn’t brought significant numbers of troops back within the first term.”
Kerry and running mate John Edwards did separate taped interviews with CBS, CNN, ABC and Fox, all of which were broadcast Sunday.
With Edwards sitting by his side, Kerry said on CBS that he is convinced that a Kerry administration could get NATO involved in Iraq. The interview was taped earlier in Greensburg, Pa.
“We can make sure that other countries in the region ? and this is critical ? Iran, Syria, are not interfering with trying to establish a democratic Iraq and bring other countries like France and Germany and Russia to the reconstruction effort so that the Iraq economy can get off the ground and we can get some debt forgiveness,” Edwards said.
Kerry said he has a plan to approach other world leaders, “and I’m not negotiating it publicly.”
Israel is also very worried about this:
"…many Israeli and American Jewish leaders are expressing concern that a Kerry administration will cause more violence in the Middle East. They say they are worried about Kerry’s statements of coordinating American foreign policy with the Europeans, and are disturbed by his appointment of several former Clinton Mideast policy directors as advisers, particularly former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk.
Many blame Clinton’s failed approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict ? which sought Israeli territorial concessions for promises of peace by Arafat and ignored indications of growing Palestinian militancy and violations of security reform agreements ? for partially causing the current intifada
Just think this is what we could see in the newpapers making headlines:
“…Jan 2005:I can see it now, President Kerry getting off the plane and holding a piece of paper in his hand, saying “Peace in Our Time. Osama has given us his written guarantee that he will end his quest to kill Americans; in return, the US will begin pulling out of Iraq and Saudia Arabia. He has assured my administration that there will be no more terrorist attacks, that he will never persue WMD and those WMD that he has, he will turn over to the U.N. I’ve got his written word right here. Peace in our time”…”
Could this be the secret plan that he is talking about, but refuses to tell anyone, that the only way he will tell us what it is, is if you vote him into office?
What is happening is Kerry is talking about I will do this, I will do that, but not giving any substance, to what he is saying. He has all these plans. But the only way one would see what they are is, by voting him into office.
He is promising everything to everyone. But again not saying how he will carry out these promises. ANd once again, I say how is he going to pay for all of this? He has to cut something?
ANd here are just some of the promises:
List is long so will continue in another post…
Joe
Ramo, mentioned something important - voter turnout.
I have belived for a while now that there will be record voter turnout for Democrats. (Mainy because they are still bitter about the last election.) If this turns out to be the case, every poll that has been taken is meaningless.
On another note, I don’t put much faith in polls. Most polls are biased.
If I am elected I will…
Kerry promises teachers major spending
WASHINGTON (AP) ? Democrat John Kerry told teachers on Friday that his first presidential priority would be financial support for schools, saying educators who move kids from sorrow to success need big help themselves…
PHOENIX ? Sen. John Kerry yesterday promised an amnesty for most illegal immigrants who have been in the United States for at least five years.
Kerry promises Hispanics immigration plan
Kerry Promises Urban Aid
Kerry Promises to End Era of Special Interests
Kerry promises to be tough on security,
Kerry Promises Greater Outreach to BKerry pledge: 10 million new jobs in four years
John Kerry said Friday that if elected president he would slash corporate taxes by 5 percent and eliminate tax loopholes that push jobs overseas.
US Presidential candidate John Kerry has said that his party would endeavour to provide better living opportunities to all the immigrants
Kerry: ?Troops come first, period?
Kerry promises more respect for overworked forces
Kerry Promises Teachers Big Spending
John Kerry in UCLA Address Promises More Effective War on Terrorism
Kerry Promises a Kinder, Gentler Foreign Policy
Kerry promises new fiscal discipline
Democrat vows ‘cap on spending,’ slashed deficit
Kerry promises he’ll be a ‘veteran’s veteran’
PHOENIX ? Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry sought to counter his Massachusetts liberal image yesterday by wooing centrist Democrats with promises to preside over an era of bipartisan governing.
John Kerry promises to save the union by going to the UN
PORT OF PALM BEACH, Florida ? Accusing President Bush of not doing enough to prevent nuclear terrorism, John Kerry promised a plan yesterday to develop a new plan to create a strategy for producing a formula that could result in a procedure for creating some kind of plan to prevent nuclear terrorism.
Kerry promises affordable health care
Kerry promises zero tolerance for gang violence
Kerry promises spectrum sale to fund science
Kerry promises to run on a platform of ideas
Kerry promises to add 40,000 new troops to the armed services.
Kerry touts plan to balance budget
Kerry promises, if elected, to lift ban on immigrants with AIDS
Kerry promises to be president for all
Kerry promises voters the moon
Kerry Promises To ‘Destroy The Terrorists’
Kerry Promises to Enforce Trade Pacts
Mr Kerry promises to restart negotiations on the Kyoto anti-global-warming treaty, open bilateral talks with North Korea and Iran, appoint envoys to the Middle East and for nuclear proliferation, aid failed states, stop bunker-buster bombs?and even give all Americans a chance to learn a foreign language. And that does not include profound differences with Mr Bush over Iraq
Kerry promises he won’t lead the nation to war without just cause
SAN JOSE, Calif.–Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry called for tax cuts on long-term investments in start-ups and other small businesses,
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry on Friday proposed raising the federal minimum wage to $7 an hour by 2007, arguing that such an increase could boost the wages of more than 15 million American
Kerry promises closer relations with Latin America
Kerry promises jobs to Georgia
Courting Minorities, Kerry Promises Expanded College Access
Presidential candidate Kerry promises tax breaks to stop offshoring
and the list goes on and on and on…
And again Mr. Kerry HOW you going to pay for all of this? WHat you going to cut spending on to pay for these progrrams and leg? ANd you gave out ALL these promises, but you give no specific plan how you plan to carry them out…ANd you wonder why you are loosing in the polls…
Promise some more Mr. Kerry…
By Don Lambro
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Sen. John Kerry’s campaign proposals would result in $226 billion in higher spending in the first year of his presidency, including an additional $115 billion in social welfare, foreign aid, and environmental and energy costs, according to a study of his budgetary recommendations.
Joe
[quote]ZEB wrote:
By the way, the latest CNN/USA Today poll has President Bush at 50% and Kerry at 45%. According to this poll Bush got a bounce from the democratic convention. [/quote]
Or perhaps Bush’s bump comes from that bullshit 3-year old “intel” on the targeting of the financial buildings in NY. Very convenient way to curtail any Kerry bounce after the convention and make NY safer for the upcoming republican convention there.
I love the fact that this administration preys on people’s fears to help their campaign.
Clearly the heightened security around the countries leading finanicial institutions and the Capitol are just for show. I think its hilarious that you would believe that. Howard Dean made some similiar comments and got laughed at by even liberal newsman. Smarten up.