Only One Sheet of Toilet Paper!

kroby · April 26, 2007, 7:17pm

[quote]moeity wrote:
All this stuff is based on the results of field campaigns. None of this stuff is easy, and its by no means complete. Our understanding of the processes in tropical convection is poor, to say the least.

A year ago, I took part in a field campaign to study tropical convection in the monsoon season in Australia (see http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/research/twpice.htm and http://science.arm.gov/twpice/) We’ve been working on the data for a year, and its still not ready for models.

You say that climate modelers arent scientists because they have no control. I disagree. They use past data sets as their control. Lets say I have a new model. I’d like to validate it in some way. To do this, I use as my initial contitions, climate data from 1990.

I then run my model to see how well it predicts what actually happened in the past. If the model accurately simulates 10 years of data, I can say something quanitative about the quality of my model.[/quote]

Perfectly reasonable. I’d like some data from, oh, any year(s) between 4000 BC through 1400 AD. That’s 5000 years of data to crunch.

Hypothesis is the ability to test for very few changing variables, while all the others are constant. How is this disinformation? I’ve performed countless experiments using this formula. It allows one to say something about the one variable in question.

Have you been able to create a constant variable open ended system? Impossible. That is why we can’t know man made CO2 is driving climate change, just as much as the opposite that we aren’t.

Dust is made by wind. Particulates in the air allow for the water vapor to condense. Do you have a firm grip on how much particulates will be in the air, globally, at any particular time? IF you did, then you’d know how much vapor is in the air, contributing to the greenhouse effect. One variable down. You can’t do this. Sorry, one major variable UP.

Below, you talk about how vapor is released via rain. Fine. But that does not diminish the overall effect vapor has worldwide. Or are you suggesting that large parts of the globe are devoid of water vapor? This variable is significant, and always changing. Have you developed an algorithm that takes this variable out of the equation?

You mean CO2 does not readily absorb into water? How in the world do algal blooms occur? How do we respirate? Is there not an equilibrium with all gasses? Why, yes, there is. It is when they become fixed (hello, calcium carbonate) that they exit the open ended system. But is this forever? No. It will eventually be released, and that’s where we are now.

Chaos begets order begets chaos. Don’t let passion cloud reason.

kroby · April 26, 2007, 7:26pm

[quote]orinoco wrote:

"First…we need to understand the nature of the threat we face, which is threefold:

1/Planetary overpopulation.

2/fossil fuel based release of greenhouse gases and…

3/Destruction of eco-systems and the environment.

Second…we need to understand that in order to avert a global catastrophe on a truly apocolyptic level, a few things need to happen:

A/ We must halt global population growth and eventually decrease it to a sustainable 4 billion in 300 years.

B/ We must achieve a 60% cut in global greenhouse gas emmisions by 2030.

C/ We must halt mans ever increasing footprint - both concrete and agricultural - on the natural world, whilst simultaneously increasing co2 absorbtion through massive global reforestation and deployment of new technologies "[/quote]

Essentially, the only problem is human population. But, if we do not achieve a 60% cut in global GH gas emissions by 2030… what??? We’ll die? News flash: WE WILL DIE. The earth will continue. Um, and I believe that cockroaches will dominate the world. Those bastards.

As an aside, I find it funny that there’s misspelled words in this “manifesto.”

orinoco · April 26, 2007, 9:23pm

[quote]kroby wrote:
But, if we do not achieve a 60% cut in global GH gas emissions by 2030… what??? We’ll die? [/quote]

Nooo, don’t be silly! Well, perhaps the non-believers will…

[quote]
As an aside, I find it funny that there’s misspelled words in this “manifesto.”[/quote]

You are easily amused my friend. Typos can be fuond evreywhere. I just spotted one on ‘10 downing street’s’ homepage yesterday…how I laughed.

moeity · April 26, 2007, 9:34pm

[quote]kroby wrote:
Perfectly reasonable. I’d like some data from, oh, any year(s) between 4000 BC through 1400 AD. That’s 5000 years of data to crunch.[/quote]

Look, it doesnt matter over what time period you test your model, as long as you initial dataset is complete enough. I’m sure you know as well as I do that our data for that time period is somewhat limited.

[quote]
Hypothesis is the ability to test for very few changing variables, while all the others are constant. How is this disinformation? I’ve performed countless experiments using this formula. It allows one to say something about the one variable in question.

Have you been able to create a constant variable open ended system? Impossible. That is why we can’t know man made CO2 is driving climate change, just as much as the opposite that we aren’t.[/quote]

That works fine for non-chaotic systems,
but for chaotic systems, you need to make assumptions. You’re right, we’ll never now 100% that man made CO2 is driving climate change, but we can know to a certain degree that this is true.

[quote]
Dust is made by wind. Particulates in the air allow for the water vapor to condense. Do you have a firm grip on how much particulates will be in the air, globally, at any particular time? IF you did, then you’d know how much vapor is in the air, contributing to the greenhouse effect. One variable down. You can’t do this. Sorry, one major variable UP. [/quote]

Yes, give me a sounding for any region and I can tell you how much water vapor there is, as well as provide a good estimate on dust content.

True, water vapor amounts are always changing, but its very easy to quantify how much water vapor is at a given location. Theres even a well defined maximum amount of water vapor that can be in a given parcel of air in the atmosphere. Again, this is why we’re not so worried about water vapor’s effect on GW, since we could pump water vapor into the air all day, and once the air is saturated, a large portion of the water vapor will precipitate out. Notice that unlike CO2, the cycle to reach water vapor equilibrium takes days, not centuries.

Yes, water absorbs CO2, but when too much of that happens, we have other problems to deal with. As stated above, the equilibrium time for CO2 is on the order of centuries, which is why its such a problem.

Varqanir · April 27, 2007, 12:50am

[quote]SteinJorgen wrote:
Varqanir wrote:
This puts Boston’s avatar in a whole new perspective.

Interesting to see the non-believers of human-caused global warming ridicule those who have different opinions than themselves.

And ignorance is bliss, right? The truth is too hard to face?

pussies.

We are all so weak. If they try to take away any of our comfort items, it’s like starting a war. Even though most of those items have come in the last hundred years. We’ve grown soft. And ironically we’re all spartans on this site, right? :b

This as the biggest threat to human and animal life in our history, the planet will survive, but not the life on it. And face it, it’s our fault.

So take some gdamn responsibility and be a man. I don’t care if they ban cars in cities, incite limitations on planes and hit the industry with demands of a less pollution. I don’t care if people must use their feets, lose/quit their job, travel less.

I think you are lazy, and you know at heart that something has to be done. Every one of us must do our part.

[/quote]

Exactly why you chose to reference my post in your diatribe is beyond me, considering that nowhere in this thread have I ever stated a position about global warming. I ridiculed Sheryl Crow for making a ridiculous statement, and Celtic Devil for typing so shrilly and effusively.

But since you have for whatever reason chosen to call me a weak, lazy, irresponsible and unmanly pussy, I will respond in kind, punk.

I was a disciple of Bill Mollison, David Holmgren and James Lovelock (Google these names if you don’t know who they are) when you were still shitting in your disposable diapers. David Holmgren is a friend of mine, and he has stayed in my house, helping me to design it to be more energy efficient and productive.

I currently live in Japan, which as you must know consumes less energy (7,424.08 kWh per capita) than the United States (12,454.589 kWh per capita) and Norway (24,464.195 kWh per capita), and my energy consumption is way less even than that of my neighbors.

I recycle all of my trash, and compost all of my kitchen wastes. My garden currently supplies me with about 40 percent of my food, and when the fruit trees and vines mature, it will be more like 60 per cent, with the remainder being milk, meat and fish. I am a certified Permaculture designer and am designing efficient food production and energy saving systems for my friends and neighbors.

Oh, and in response to your snide little remark about Spartans, apparently a dig at my avatar, yes, I am reasonably proud to say that I do live a Spartan lifestyle. Comfort items? You’d be hard-pressed to find one in my house. I don’t own a television or stereo or video game. The only electronic devices I have are my computer (a laptop), a telephone/fax machine, and a combination printer/scanner, which I haven’t used in about a month.

I do own a Land Rover, but I walk most everywhere, so a week or two might go by before I have to buy gasoline. And I am planning to convert it to run on LP gas or ethanol. I work at home, so no need to commute.

So I guess what I am trying to say is, take your goddamned self-righteousness and cram it right up your tight little ass, along with a square of toilet paper autographed by Sheryl Crowe and Al Gore.

I’m doing my part. What have you done?

kroby · April 27, 2007, 1:00am

Just don’t call Varqanir an “Evildoer.” That’ll make him mad.

Hillside77 · April 27, 2007, 1:46am

[quote]CELTIC-DEVIL wrote:
WEll, pretty much every single RESPECTED scientist on the entire earth would disagree with the theories I am hearing. How can you say it’s blown out of proportion when almost every single scientist out there agrees that it is extremely serious and the world as we know it will change drastically if we dont act within the next 10-15 years. If your OK with that fact, then fine, but nobody should bury their head in the sand and pretend this doesnt exist…every single piece of scientific evidence points unequivocly to the opposite of what you have just said.

Yes, the world has undergone cooling and heating cycles.That much is true and any scientist accepts that. But the fact of the matter is, that naturally occurs over the course of tens of thousands of years (an accepted fact) We are going to do it in less than one hundred!!!

IT is true that there have been periods in history when carbon levels rise and fall…but the fact of the matter is, we have caused the carbon levels to reach many many MANY times higher than they would EVER reach naturally. The earth is getting hotter at an astounding rate. Almost EVERY single respected scientist agrees on this.

CArbon traps heat in the earth and will not let it escape…the earth quickly grows hotter and hotter causing even more carbon to build up. Pretty soon, the earth is thrown completely off it’s natural cycle…the damage becomes irreversible and the decline becomes unstoppable. The earth becomes hotter than it has EVER been. Millions die, hundreds of millions displaced. Drought, hunger, floods, storms, mass disease from the aftermath of disasters…to the guy who stated this is already happening. WEll, of course it is…I’m not denying it is. But that does not mean it cannot get significantly worse. How about severe drought in parts of the united states…it’s entirely possible and likely, according to the scientific evidence. Massive sections of Asia will flood for example and millions shall be displaced from those areas.

AS for industrialisation being a good thing. I agree, but there are ways to industrialise without destroying the planet. We are going about industrialiation in a VERY foolish manner.

Sound nice?? These are accepted facts by almost every single respected enviornmental scientist out there so dont make the mistake of choosing to believe otherwise just because it feels nicer to do so.

As for Al gore, I respect him a lot. Sure, he has some flaws…he has a big house and uses a lot of electricity…he’s overweight…blah blah blah. WEll nobodys perfect and perhaps he doesnt stick as rigidly to what he says as he should. But this man has dedicated much of his LIFE to this. He travles thousands of miles across the world to give talks on this massive danger regularly. (cynics are gonna chime in now and say he’s a hypocrite for taking the plane)

He also recently, together with Richard Branson, put in 25 MILLION dollars of their OWN MONEY into a prize fund for the first scientist to come up with a viable way of scrubbing carbon from the atmosphere…call that hypocrisy?

Seriously guys, dont bury your head in the sand. Your theory that this is a “natural cycle” of the earth does not have a shred of valid scientfic evidence behind it and pretty much not a single RESPECTED scientist on the face of the earth backs that theory. Again, why is this process happening thousands of times faster now than it would naturally?? I’ll tell you why, because we are causing it.

I would love to see what scientists you claim back up this theory of yours. I’ll point you to the recent intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change where all the top scientists in the world gathered to discuss this issue and agreed, to 90% certainty, exactly what I have just told you. YOu can point me to individual theories that you like the sound of, but the FACT IS, ALMOST ALL OF THE GREATEST MINDS IN THE WORLD ON THIS SUBJECT AGREE WHAT I HAVE JUST TOLD YOU.

I’ll also point you to the recent United Nations report, which paints a near-apocalyptic vision of the Earth’s future if temperatures continue to rise unabated: a billion people suffering SEVERE drought, extreme food shortages in Africa and elsewhere, a blighted landscape ravaged by fires and floods, and millions of species sentenced to extinction. Again, this is not an individual scientists theory…I am giving you facts accepted by the VAST and almost total majority of the greatest minds in the world on the subject.

EVen your own president accepts the scienctific conclusions of the IPCC report. This is the same president BUsh who vehimently denied Global Warming existed during his presidential campaign against gore, and cast Gore as some kind of enviornmental nut. There are numerous reports from the Pentagon on the reality of GLobal warming and dozens of reports from the EPA. am I hinting at a pattern here?

Sure, you can talk about your “alternate theories”, but there are crackpot “alternate theories” for everything. I am quite sure almost no respected scientists backed up those theories. Like I said, the fact of the matter is, the greatest minds on the world are 90% positive of this being a serious and impending problem that we are responsible for.

You wanna use that 10% figure to justify ignoring the problem, be my guest…but I for one dont wanna bet the fate of the planet on a 10% chance that the greatest minds on the earth MIGHT be wrong.

I hate to sound insulting, but everyday I see a level of ignorance and people burying their head in the sand which astounds me beyond comprehension, and I am seeing the same on this site. All you guys are showing me is individual theories, backed up by, at most, a handful of scientists.

I am showing you the facts, as accepted by the almost TOTAL MAJORITY of the most knowledgable scientists in the world on this issue. Look to the worlds biggest reports and conferences (eg IPCC, UN reports) on the issues and tell me I’m wrong. You cant. All you can say is, “well, it happened before, it’s natural”, and “look at this alternate theory, you are wrong man”.

WAtch one show on TV or one individual scientists report that presents an alternate view on TV and choose to believe it…ridiculous. There are alternate theories for everything guys, but jesus christ, the fact that you choose to ignore the INCREDIBLY OVERWHELMING body of scientific opinion shocks me…

Given the fact that the almost OVERWHELMING TOTAL body of scientific opinion agrees with what I have told you, do you choose to believe some individual theory about global warming that has no scientific merit behind it?

Pretty much every sceintist, government (including your own president), international body on the subject, enviornmental body, the UN, the Pentagon, the EU, the EPA agree that this is a MAJOR and man made problem (I could list many other bodies) So why do you ignore it and choose to believe some another individual scientists crackpot theory???

Face the reality…[/quote]

When did science become a consensous? Besides, most scientists may agree that the earth is warming but the majority do not agree on what is causing the warming. The reality is that you have bought into the ridiculous Al Gore doom and gloom “global warming” and choose to ignore science in favor of propaganda.

Varqanir · April 27, 2007, 2:22am

[quote]kroby wrote:
Just don’t call Varqanir an “Evildoer.” That’ll make him mad.[/quote]

Haha!

Ahh, you should know, kroby: though this be madness, yet there is method in it.

Loose_Tool · April 27, 2007, 3:38am

[quote]dwilliams wrote:
Loose Tool wrote:
DW wrote:
I’m glad that I live in a country where people wash their asses.

And what country is it that has such an enlightened asshole as you in it?

Get a sense of humor dick.
[/quote]

So people do not wash their asses in your country? I am disappointed. I thought perhaps that you were a resident of a much more advanced country of enlightened assholes. I thought perhaps we had something to learn from you … assholes.

kaaleppi · April 27, 2007, 8:49am

[quote]Varqanir wrote:

I recycle all of my trash, and compost all of my kitchen wastes. My garden currently supplies me with about 40 percent of my food, and when the fruit trees and vines mature, it will be more like 60 per cent, with the remainder being milk, meat and fish. I am a certified Permaculture designer and am designing efficient food production and energy saving systems for my friends and neighbors.[/quote]

To return to BostonBarristers avatar, you were saying…?

Varqanir · April 27, 2007, 8:51am

Rainbow Warrior, eat my spray.

[quote]pushharder wrote:

You forgot to mention that when you travel overseas it’s pretty much always under sail.[/quote]

Aye, an’ I’ll have ye know that me bonny little ship is built entirely of plantation-grown, renewable hardwoods, and those are natural pigments in the paint. I only use organic unbleached cotton and hemp for me sheets and lines, and non-polluting steel shot in me cannons when I’m sendin’ oil tankers an’ such down to Davy Jones’ Locker. Haaaaaarrrrrrr!!!

Varqanir · April 27, 2007, 8:55am

[quote]karva wrote:
Varqanir wrote:

I recycle all of my trash, and compost all of my kitchen wastes. My garden currently supplies me with about 40 percent of my food, and when the fruit trees and vines mature, it will be more like 60 per cent, with the remainder being milk, meat and fish. I am a certified Permaculture designer and am designing efficient food production and energy saving systems for my friends and neighbors.

To return to BostonBarristers avatar, you were saying…?

[/quote]

I bathe regularly, and I have a shower toilet.

SteinJorgen · April 27, 2007, 10:19am

[quote]Varqanir wrote:
SteinJorgen wrote:
Varqanir wrote:
This puts Boston’s avatar in a whole new perspective.