[quote]Heliotrope wrote:
Even if your optimistic hopes of true production versus expected are correct it still won’t be enough to make the U.S. independent of the global market much less an exporter large enough to have any real impact on prices.[/quote]
The whole independence argument is really a foolish one. We should not be looking for independence, or truely worried about that independence. We are part of a global market.
But what is going right now has nothing to do with what markets should be doing. When Brazil finds large quantities of oil, that should be good news. But then Brazil actually thinks they should join OPEC. Bad news. Instead of them competing in the market, they may join the cartel and help manipulate prices.[quote]
I am not against drilling but thinking that increased tapping of Americas minuscule reserves is an meaningful issue is wishful thinking. Oil is a global market and price is effected by global supply and demand and the speculations and schemes of Opec and commodity traders. Adding a few more taps to our tiny(in comparison to the worlds total reserves)reserves won’t be enough to influence such a gigantic market that is increasing its worldwide demand each day.[/quote]
No, thats the way the market works. If you do not tap those reserves, then prices will keep climbing. You are actually saying increasing the supply will not affect supply and demand.
Plus there is more then just Alaska. There is Bakken, which has 4 billion barrels of extractable oil at current technology. (Previous technology was practically zero.) As technology improves it is believed that number could go up to 100 billion barrels. They know its there, just not at current technolgy.
Then the oil find in the Gulf of Mexico. Potentially 15 billion barrels of oil and natural gas liquids. (They didn’t divide these numbers.) Still 2 years before it starts flowing, last I knew, and 5 before full production. But another tap flowing.
OPEC manipulates the markets by changes as low as 500k bbl of daily production. We replace that, and their power is weakened.
[quote]It really is a non issue. If we really need it we will tap it. The longer we wait the more valuable it will be when we finally do tap it. It’s money in the bank collecting probably the best interest rates in the history of commodity markets.
As the first nation to effectively exploit a gigantic domestic reserve we already sold the bulk of our non renewable resource in a market of low demand and high supply. Why should be in a rush to sell off the little we still have?
After all oil is still a measly four dollars a gallon. Too many of my countrymen lack perspective. We are still far away from “high” oil prices. [/quote]
The economy does run on energy. I agree that the prices are not as bad as many people think, but I still believe they should be lower. We should be in a era of much lower energy prices. But the problem is not that we are running out of oil. The problem is not that we are using to much energy.
The problem is politics. It is the reason we do not have more Nu-Q-Ler energy plants built. It is the reason why we have so much trouble drilling anywhere. It is the reason OPEC has so much power.
If we actually had more Nu-Q-Ler plants running in this county, electricity would be a lot cheaper. Electric heat would have probably replaced gas and heating oil for heating homes.
The Tesla Roadster is proof that an electric car is viable. Yet our electric grid will not be able to handle it if suddenly half of the population had an electric car.
Again we currently produce 33% of our oil. We get 50% from Canada. That’s 83%. Throw in Mexico, and that jumps to something like 88%. (If my math is correct.) Just from North America. Brazil is currently #10 on the list, but that could change with their recent 33 billion bbl finds.
Is this enough? How about when oil shale really begins to take off? An estimated equivalent of 1.2 - 1.6 trillion bbl in an area covering portions of 3 states. Although they estimate we will only be able to recover 800 billion bbl. (That’s 109 years worth.)
Shell has recently tested a process that keeps the shale in the ground, and is capable of creating the oil, and simply pumping it out. The most interesting thing is while it is energy intensive, (producing 3.5 times as much energy used.) It also produces methane that can be used as the source of all the energy used in the process.
There is plenty of oil.
