NFL Off-Season 2013

pat · May 6, 2013, 7:27pm

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
In all seriousness Kapernick is gonna have an average maybe slightly above average year. The 49s schedule is favorable, which helps. He’ll have 25-30 combined TDs, like 3,000-3,500 yds passing, and 300-600 yrds rushing. Niners will make the playoffs, but I’m not sold they will win the division. Seattle’s schedule is favorable too. Teams will adjust to Kap this year, same with RG3, same with other “pistol” QBs. [/quote]

First of all, the stats you listed off are hardly “average” stats for an NFL QB. They’re well above average.

If you project his stats in 7 starts last year out over the course of an entire season he has pretty remarkable stats for someone in his first year of playing time (I think he attempted all of five passes in 2011 and had no rushing attempts). That sort of projection comes out to roughly:

4000 passing yards (that would rank 12th in the NFL last year)
Completion % of 62.4 (good for 11th)
Passing yards per attempt of 8.32 (good for 1st, which illustrates how good he is from the pocket and how he’s not strictly a runner)
Passer rating of 98.3 (7th in the league)
Rushing yards 900 rushing yards (1st amongst QBs and 19th overall)
23 passing TDs (14th)
11 rushing TDs (1st amongst QBs and 5th overall)
7 INTs (2nd)
Total Quarterback Rating 76.3 (3rd in the NFL)

And those stats are just assuming that he maintains his pace from last year. If he shows marked improvement from last year those stats all go up significantly. Based on how well he was throwing the ball as he gained more experience, including throughout the playoffs, I expect his trajectory to continue upward. There is simply nothing average about the way the guy played last year and for him to drop down into “average” QB play would represent a VERY significant statistical regression on his part.

I think the really telling statistics are his QBR and his average passing yards per attempt vs. his completion percentage. The guy makes more downfield throws than literally any QB in the league based on last year. He averaged 8.32 yards per attempt in the regular season but jumped way up to 9.98 in the postseason against some pretty good defenses in Atlanta and Baltimore.

No QB who completed a higher percentage of his regular season throws than Kaepernick’s postseason completion % of 61.3 came anywhere close to averaging 9.98 yards per attempt. RG3 was the only QB in the regular season who completed more than 61.3 % of his throws and averaged more than 8 yards per attempt (65.6/8.14). Kaepernick’s regular season completion % and yards per attempt were also tops. No one who completed more than 62.3 % of their passes averaged as much as 8.32 yards per attempt and RG3 was the ONLY QB who averaged more than 62.3 % AND more than 8 yards per attempt. When it comes to downfield passing, Kaepernick is already in very rarefied air.

Kaepernick, based on both his first 7 career starts along with his postseason play, has already shown to be an extremely elite passer, arguably more elite than anyone when it comes to downfield passing accuracy. And we all know that he is arguably the premiere running QB in the league, given his 10.6 rushing yards per attempt average, which is light years in front of RG3’s average (6.8).

And then of course we have QBR, which is a stat that takes into account the game context in which stats are accumulated. Basically, the stats reflect the importance of the situation so that clutch performances are elevated above statistically-identical performances in garbage time and against poorer teams. Kaepernick finished above everyone but Brady and Peyton Manning last year in that category.

So what exactly makes you think a guy like Kaepernick, who CLEARLY has very rare throwing and running ability and has already proven he’s more than simply untapped potential, will be anywhere close to average next year? NOTHING about him is average.[/quote]

I think you misunderstood me. I think Kap will be a good QB next year and in the future. He has the tools to be a great QB in fact. I expect he will come back to earth this year though. I think the praise while warranted is still premature. Let’s see what he does over the course of a full season. I don’t expect him to play at the level he played at last season for an entire season. I also think defensive coordinators will have a solution for the pistol offense this year. They will at least be able to handle it better anyway.

He’s going to be GOOD…I just expect him to be brought back to earth this year is the take away message here. [/quote]

Ditto. Defenses have had all winter to figure it out and I am pretty sure most of them have. I predict the read-option will not be near as successful this year. That doesn’t mean he won’t be really good, but the ‘shock and awe’ factor is no longer in play.[/quote]

Other than the game against Green Bay, Kaepernick rarely ran the read-option. Like I pointed out earlier, Kaepernick is in a league of his own so far when it comes to downfield accuracy. The fact is that the league has eventually figured out a way to stop a lot of developments from offenses, yes.

However, no one has figured out how to stop a guy who can consistently make downfield throws from the pocket, short of collapsing the pocket on the QB and forcing him to pull the ball down and run. Unlike virtually all pocket passers in the NFL over the last 30 years or so, Kaepernick can run once he is flushed out of the pocket.

You were watching the NFC Championship Game, right? How many times did Kaepernick run the ball? Once? Twice? How many times did they run the read-option with him keeping the ball? Not one single time in the entire game. And yet he still made play after play, but from the pocket. He is the epitome of the dual-threat QB.

And I laugh at the assumption that the league will catch onto the read-option and the pistol offense. You blindly assume that Harbaugh and company are simply going to keep things the same. With an entire offseason to implement new nuances in their offense there are going to be all sorts of new wrinkles for teams to prepare for. Don’t forget that the 49ers’ offensive attack was already considered the most varied, nuanced and creative system in the NFL before they switched from the extremely limited Alex Smith to the ultra-dynamic Kaepernick.

And the pistol offense gives teams SO many more potential things to account for, even if they line up in it every snap and don’t run the read-option out of if one time. The read-option is simply ONE aspect of the pistol offense. With an entire offseason for the most creative offensive minds in football, coaching the most physically-talented QB in the league, there is going to be a HUGE amount of different things the 49ers can run out of that formation. Shit, there’s at least a dozen different pistol formations possible, maybe even twice that many.

The 49ers just drafted a TE who measures in at 6’5" 265lbs and played in the fucking SLOT most of his career at Rice. So they basically replaced Delanie Walker with a guy who has 5 inches and 40lbs on him and is just as fast. Add to that a healthy Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, a replenished WR corps and the best offensive line in the game and this season has the makings of an extremely potent offensive attack out here in SF. The sort of personnel they have on offense gives them the flexibility to run WAY more plays out of WAY more personnel groupings and formations, pistol or otherwise, than what they showed with what was essentially a limited offensive attack last year.

Mark my words: This season will mark a paradigm shift in the way offenses are run, with the 49ers heads and shoulders above the rest of the league in terms of innovation, scheme, variety and explosiveness.[/quote]

Yeah, best ever. Every other team should just quit now while they have dignity.

Yawn.

anon50325502 · May 6, 2013, 7:34pm

In the 2012 playoffs: Out of 10 QBs

Kap had a rating of 100.9 good for 4th out of 10. Flacco, Wilson, and Ryan were higher.
He was tied for 3rd in TDs with 4. Ryan and Flacco higher.
He was 6th in completion %.
He was 2nd in passing yards.
He wa tied for 2nd in INTs.
He was 8th in passing yards per game.

He was 3rd in rushing yards, which is impressive. I thought he didn’t run in the playoffs?

I think Kaps playoff stats are more telling than his regular season stats, but still don’t give us a great picture. He’s an accurate above average QB when healthy. His legs give open up passing oppotunties he’s otherwise not have. I will be convinced he’s great when he plays with a sprained ankle or deep thigh bruise. Something that limits his mobility. If he can maintain these types of numbers then, I’d agree he’s very good.

chillain · May 6, 2013, 7:33pm

[quote]Derek542 wrote:
I fucking hate this time of year, draft is done, no real training camps.

Just arguing hypothetical events in the future. [/quote]

So true.

But thanks to the LVH, we do got Week 1 pointspreads to mull over already:

Derek542 · May 6, 2013, 7:36pm

[quote]chillain wrote:

[quote]Derek542 wrote:
I fucking hate this time of year, draft is done, no real training camps.

Just arguing hypothetical events in the future. [/quote]

So true.

But thanks to the LVH, we do got Week 1 pointspreads to mull over already:

[/quote]
I dont gamble, I get obsessive enough about the game, wager in money and I would be fucking neurotic

pat · May 6, 2013, 7:37pm

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:
Kaepernick is in a league of his own so far when it comes to downfield accuracy. The fact is that the league has eventually figured out a way to stop a lot of developments from offenses, yes.
[/quote]

He’s played in 7 games. Let’s see how he does being banged up for an entire season before we hand him the MVP award.

Teams will adjust to the pistol, wildcat, etc… Teams always do. Like RG3 a few good hits and I don’t beleive Kap will be able to run when flushed like EVERYTIME like you think.

I don’t know, I don’t remember. The Falcon’s shouldn’t have been in that game, imo, anyway.

Off course Jim will adjust. Who considered the 49ers to have the most varied/nuanced offenses in the league? You’re so over the top “extremely limited,” and “ultra-dynamic,” give me a break. KAP has played 7 games and most of them were against OKAY teams. He played well in the playoffs. So did this guy named Joe Flacco, and he’s still an average maybe slightly above average QB at best.

DB, I like your post, but you are so jaded it’s comical.

“the most creative offensive minds in football, coaching the most physically-talented QB in the league”

Seriously…

Awesome, he could easily be a bust and the niners have good players, but so do a lot of other teams. They’re good on paper that’s for sure.

[quote]

Mark my words: This season will mark a paradigm shift in the way offenses are run, with the 49ers heads and shoulders above the rest of the league in terms of innovation, scheme, variety and explosiveness.[/quote]

Okay, words marked. [/quote]

Well of course I’m going to use some over-the-top language to illustrate my point. It’s just my way of coloring things up a bit. Is that so bad?

And I for one don’t consider Joe Flacco an average QB and have never been one of the ones in here ridiculing him for that or his eyebrows or his demands of elite status and so forth.

And you ask who considered the 49ers offense to be so varied and creative? Only literally every analyst I’ve ever heard in the last two years when the subject was broached. Who else can lay claim to that description?

As far as RG3 goes, he got injured making a cut and without getting hit in the first place. And prior to that, he was scrambling in the middle of the field, whereas virtually ALL of Kaepernick’s runs are to the outside, by design or otherwise, where the only guys who can lay a hit on him are either smaller than him or slower than him. Plus, he’s built to take a hit better than RG3 is since he has about three inches and 25 lbs on him.

And again, my point is that Kaepernick doesn’t have to run constantly in order to gain big yardage. He can pass the ball from the pocket as well as anyone in the league right now, in my opinion, which I have bolstered with statistical evidence.

And while Kaepernick played well against OKAY teams, he also excelled against some good teams, such as Chicago (well, good defense anyways) and NE and in NO when New Orleans was playing very well. He also stepped up his game immensely when facing playoff teams in Green Bay, Atlanta and Baltimore.

And here is another telling statistic that I think has some serious relevancy when it comes to his mental toughness, which is always a tough thing to gauge in a young QB: every time Kaepernick has EVER turned the ball over in his career, whether on a fumble or an interception, he has responded by taking the team down the field for a score on the very next possession. Every. Single. Time.

Small sample size, sure but that includes in the playoffs and the Super Bowl, so he has shown in the limited opportunities available to him that he can respond well to adversity.[/quote]

There’s nothing wrong with being over the top.

Believe me I am one of Flacco’s biggest supports, but I doubt he will break 4,000 yards or 30 TDs this year and people will HATE him for it. Especially in B’moore. In my mind those #'s a re perfectly okay, Baltimore does have this guy named Ray Rice. I hear he’s pretty good.

RG3 got hurt being crushed by Hiloti Nagata, not on some cut.

You listen to Analyst? They talk abotu Tim Tebow for days on end. I remember getting riped in here (not by you) for linking the ESPN power rankings. So I guess Analysts words are out. Also if the Niners were offensive guru’s wouldn’t Alex Smith have had better #'s?

Let me say this again to be clear, KAP IS GOOD HE WILL PROBABLY DO WELL IN THE NFL OVER HIS CARERR. As far a the turnover to score stat you mentioned. That may be true, but while he plays a part in that his supporting cast being so good plays a very large role as well. Put him on the Browns and lets see if he marched down the field for 7 after a turnover.

Small sample size, that’s all I’m saying. It’s too early to tell how good or great he will be. [/quote]

He’s not on the Browns, so it’s a moot point.

And the fact that Alex Smith even has a job, let alone garnered the Niners a third or possibly second round pick next year along with the 34th pick this year, proves that Harbaugh and company are offensive gurus. I mean, people were straight up LAUGHING when Harbaugh said that Smith was his guy prior to the 2011 season. If I had said that Smith would have the sort of numbers that he had after a season and a half of starting under Harbaugh everyone would have laughed at me. This is a guy who was benched for Troy Fucking Smith, who isn’t even in the league anymore.

Regarding analysts, I don’t remember there being any sort of consensus about Tebow amongst analysts. In fact, I remember there being quite the debates from time to time on ESPN about whether or not Tebow was any good or had a future as a QB. And ESPN isn’t the sole possessor of analysts in the football media world. But when there is a clear consensus amongst analysts from literally every media outlet about which offense is the most creative and varied, I think that carries some weight to it. I’ve never seen or heard anyone argue differently since Harbaugh came on board. Have you?[/quote]

It’s not really a moot point from my perspective. If Kap played in the much more physcial AFC North we would see, truly, how good a pocket passer he is. This is because he would be hit and hit and hit and hit then hit some more. His support cast would also be okay vs. the great cast he has now, which would show how he handles adveristy. Real adveristy not oh I threw a pick, but we made the playoffs in week 10 so no big deal…

Alex Smith is an okay QB and he did lead the Niners to, what, half their wins, so if he’s so bad and he could do it what makes Kaps wins special?

Analysts are analyst, they have their own slant and spin everytime is my point. The latch on to teams and topics, they’re not exactly objective. [/quote]

You’re wasting your time. Kaepernick is the fastest runner, the best passer, the smartest decision maker, the best punter, the best kicker, can run any play and is the best when he does it, hell he doesn’t even need an line, he’s so good they just get in his way. Let’s see, he has the best tat’s, biggest dick, best smile, tells the funniest jokes, and every other QB wants to be him because they suck so bad. Let’s see, did miss anything?

DBCooper · May 6, 2013, 7:41pm