NFL Off-Season 2013

[quote]redstar144 wrote:

[quote]print wrote:

[quote]redstar144 wrote:

[quote]print wrote:

[quote]redstar144 wrote:
I have never in any other sport come across such a polarizing average team as the Jets. People get really worked up about them and tend to either love em or hate em, very little middle ground. Usually this level of interest and dislike is reserved for top tier teams like the Pats or Man Utd. The Giants who have had far more success recently never really get talked about here so its not just because they are an NY team. We only have one Jets fan who posts regularly. Its not just here either all the media give them excessive air time. I just don’t get the obsession with them. Average team with a below average QB who doesn’t really do anything too heinous to deserve all the stick he gets.[/quote]

Maybe it’s me then Red?

Though much like Matty, I’ve never shit on anyone’s team.

EDIT- Maybe the Patz get a shit kickin’ time to time from me.[/quote]

No I wasn’t accusing said Jet fan, in this case Matty, of being a shit stirrer or incessantly ranting about his team. I was saying that it was odd that the Jets are an almost constant topic of conversation when there is only one Jets fan who regularly posts these days.[/quote]

I quit posting long ago because you just can’t have a civil thread in here anymore. & I do remember you being a HUGE Chiefs fan. Believe we had a discussion about D. Thomas. If I recall correctly.[/quote]

For my sins I am still a Chiefs fan and am still waiting with great anticipation for the promised land of back to back winning seasons! Ya I remember that, it was about the time the NFL released their list of the greatest players of all time. This thread is one of the last bastions of civility here but recently even here has had some shit being slung.[/quote]

The Chiefs are a much improved team. They already had a lot of good players but never seemed to be able to get it together, but I see them being a factor this year. I don’t know how much, but they will scare some teams this year. I hope they don’t fuck up this opportunity.

[quote]MattyXL wrote:
It all started with Ryan. I pretty much agree with what you are saying Red, if Ryan goes so will be the media cock gobbling. Before this the Jets weren’t really spoke of much unless they were winning.

To me its the people that loathe them that make the most noise. This thread is a microcosm of it, you have the guy with the Jerry Garcia avi, forever taking shots, Chillain, DB from time to time, a couple of new guys that come in for the same reason. I assume you are talking about me being the only consistent posting Jet fan, and as you will see I have not gone out of my way to talk shit, only defend my shit team.

It is kind of like Howard Stern back in the day, he was so popular because people who loved him listened…but you know the group that listened to him more? Well it was the people that hated him…much like my team. [/quote]

I don’t hate the Jets as a team per se, I think that Rex Ryan is a king kong asshole and as long as he’s steering the ship, they will be in my cross-hairs of hate. And as long as he’s at the helm, they will lose, they just have no choice, it’s predestined.

[quote]print wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
Here is what I’m thinking:

  1. Pats are still building a D for life after Brady, but expect him to be their offense
  2. Jets had a good draft… They aren’t nearly as bad as people say, paricularly if Sanchize can go back to who he was when they were winning.
    [/quote]
    No they are worse. As long as they have that ass clown pulling the strings they a 6 -10 season will be a success. Ryan cannot coach offense, he has no control over his players, his on field decisions are beyond idiotic, there is no unity in the locker room, there is no discipline on the team. They will lose and lose hard and often.

[/quote]

I’m not buying that.

They cleaned out a lot of peices of their lockerroom, and players love Rex…

They will be a decent team that could sneak into the playoffs. [/quote]

They will lose.[/quote]

Ridiculous! I think people forget that the Jets had the #8 def in the league last yr. That alone can win games. However, w/that being said, I’ll take Sanchez behind ctr this yr. & anyone who know me, knows I am NOT a Sanchez supporter. But they have nastied up their O line & have 2 if not 3 capable backs to carry the load. Ivory is the first true RB since T. Jones. Goodsen & Powell will bring the speedy change of pace. Sanchez won’t have to do much. If Holmes comes back healthy & they resign Edwards…They will be much better then 6-10.

Let us not forget, that same clown you speak of was pulling the strings on back to back AFC championship games.[/quote]

Oh, I agree they have a good defense, bordering on damn good. Despite losing Revis, I still think their defense will be good. And if their offense shows even the slightest glimmer of hope that may even try. Hell, even their biggest fan quit on them last year. But the offense stinks and stinks bad and they did little to improve it. It’s good thing defense can score in football because the offense won’t be doing much of that.
They will lose. I think a 6-10 record is a generous prediction.
Seriously, cheer for the Giants, it’s far less painful.

[quote]DBCooper wrote:
WOW. Marshawn Lynch could be facing a two-game suspension for a DUI arrest last summer. What a break for the Niners if that happens. They play Seattle in Seattle in Week 2 and it looks like, unless Lynch is found innocent or the case is thrown out entirely, he WILL be suspended for two games, per league rules.

They are playing in Seattle and they have Russell Wilson. I ain’t worried, the Hawks win this one anyway.

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]redstar144 wrote:

[quote]print wrote:

[quote]redstar144 wrote:

[quote]print wrote:

[quote]redstar144 wrote:
I have never in any other sport come across such a polarizing average team as the Jets. People get really worked up about them and tend to either love em or hate em, very little middle ground. Usually this level of interest and dislike is reserved for top tier teams like the Pats or Man Utd. The Giants who have had far more success recently never really get talked about here so its not just because they are an NY team. We only have one Jets fan who posts regularly. Its not just here either all the media give them excessive air time. I just don’t get the obsession with them. Average team with a below average QB who doesn’t really do anything too heinous to deserve all the stick he gets.[/quote]

Maybe it’s me then Red?

Though much like Matty, I’ve never shit on anyone’s team.

EDIT- Maybe the Patz get a shit kickin’ time to time from me.[/quote]

No I wasn’t accusing said Jet fan, in this case Matty, of being a shit stirrer or incessantly ranting about his team. I was saying that it was odd that the Jets are an almost constant topic of conversation when there is only one Jets fan who regularly posts these days.[/quote]

I quit posting long ago because you just can’t have a civil thread in here anymore. & I do remember you being a HUGE Chiefs fan. Believe we had a discussion about D. Thomas. If I recall correctly.[/quote]

For my sins I am still a Chiefs fan and am still waiting with great anticipation for the promised land of back to back winning seasons! Ya I remember that, it was about the time the NFL released their list of the greatest players of all time. This thread is one of the last bastions of civility here but recently even here has had some shit being slung.[/quote]

The Chiefs are a much improved team. They already had a lot of good players but never seemed to be able to get it together, but I see them being a factor this year. I don’t know how much, but they will scare some teams this year. I hope they don’t fuck up this opportunity.[/quote]

I have strong hopes for the chiefs to make the playoffs this year as a wild card. I think 8-8 is certainly in our grasp. Over the next 3-4 years I think we will become a consistent play off team. Also don’t sleep on the acquisition of Tyler bray. Big andy has a superb record of developing qb’s. if he doesn’t become a starter he will reap dividends in the form of draft picks.

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]MattyXL wrote:
It all started with Ryan. I pretty much agree with what you are saying Red, if Ryan goes so will be the media cock gobbling. Before this the Jets weren’t really spoke of much unless they were winning.

To me its the people that loathe them that make the most noise. This thread is a microcosm of it, you have the guy with the Jerry Garcia avi, forever taking shots, Chillain, DB from time to time, a couple of new guys that come in for the same reason. I assume you are talking about me being the only consistent posting Jet fan, and as you will see I have not gone out of my way to talk shit, only defend my shit team.

It is kind of like Howard Stern back in the day, he was so popular because people who loved him listened…but you know the group that listened to him more? Well it was the people that hated him…much like my team. [/quote]

I don’t hate the Jets as a team per se, I think that Rex Ryan is a king kong asshole and as long as he’s steering the ship, they will be in my cross-hairs of hate. And as long as he’s at the helm, they will lose, they just have no choice, it’s predestined.[/quote]

OH NOEZZZZZZ REX RYAN AND THE JETS ARE IN PAT’S CROSS HAIRS O HATE!!!

The Jets have a pretty tough schedule…but at this point I really think there will be an improvement. Their D-line and LB corp is going to be very solid and their secondary should be solid as well. Offensively they should be better by default, hopefully Stephen Hill takes a step forward, Santonio Holmes is a prick but he is a good receiver, they bolstered their O line through the draft and the addition of Colon. I am very excited about their running back corp, personally I think Ivory is a beast, and Goodson as a change of pace back has the chance to be an excellent combo. Even Bilal Powell can contribute as he does run hard. Another 6-10 season is a real possibility, but IMO they have improved I can also see an 8-8 season and something to build on.

[quote]pat wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:
WOW. Marshawn Lynch could be facing a two-game suspension for a DUI arrest last summer. What a break for the Niners if that happens. They play Seattle in Seattle in Week 2 and it looks like, unless Lynch is found innocent or the case is thrown out entirely, he WILL be suspended for two games, per league rules.

They are playing in Seattle and they have Russell Wilson. I ain’t worried, the Hawks win this one anyway.[/quote]

Lol. That’s what you said about the NFC Championship Game, too.

[quote]print wrote:

[quote]chillain wrote:
But I’ve gotta ask, how is this even possible?? (ie. all your NFL-fan friends can’t all be NYJ fans, can they?)
[/quote]

Talkin’ shit & being an asshole are 2 very different things.[/quote]

Generally speaking of course you’re right, but these sportstalk-type threads are nothing like the majority of training/feedback/advice type of threads here.

With these, I suspect shittalk and “being an asshole” may simply be a matter of degree.

Anyway, back to football and a nice behind-the-scenes glimpse:

9:05 p.m.

“The next four picks are crucial,” Snead said, huddling with Fisher and Demoff in their seats at the front of the room as linebacker Jarvis Jones went off the board to Pittsburgh at 17.

The Rams sat at 22. They wanted Ogletree and were reasonably confident he’d be there. But they’d been talking with Houston at 27 and Atlanta at 30 about moving down to recoup some of what they’d given up to acquire Austin. Their fallback guy was UCLA defensive end Datone Jones, but if he and Ogletree were gone, they’d take Kentucky guard Larry Warford. As bravely as they spoke about Warford, though, picking him in the first round would amount to a big loss for the Rams.

Demoff laid out the options. “We can go to 30 and get a three and a seven from Atlanta, or we can go to 27 and get a four and a six from Houston.”

“Or we can stay and just pick Ogletree,” Snead chimed in.

Fisher went for a walk and rubbed his lucky 1901 $20 gold coin, a gift from his grandmother years ago that he’d brought out at every draft.

Snead, meanwhile, made a call. He and Ogletree share an agent, Pat Dye Jr., and at this moment Dye was sitting at a draft party in Atlanta with Ogletree and his family. Snead asked Dye what he’d heard. “You better not get cute,” Dye replied, “or you’ll lose him. If I’d said you could get Alec at 22 a month ago, you’d have kissed me on the mouth. Just take him!”

The 49ers traded up to 18 for LSU safety Eric Reid. The Giants took Syracuse tackle Justin Pugh. And then the Rams sweated out the linebacker-needy Bears. Consoli announced Oregon guard Kyle Long to Chicago, and the draft room went, Ooooooooooh.

9:18 p.m.

One of the biggest misconceptions outside of NFL draft rooms is that the people inside of draft rooms are omniscient, that they have a great feel for other teams’ moves. The lone three-by-five-inch magnetic player card left on the top line of the Rams’ board was Ogletree’s, and all Snead, Fisher and Demoff had to go on now was a gut feeling that he had a chance to slip to No. 27 or 30. On the board Ogletree’s card bore a yellow dot and sat slanted along the top line. “Yellow means caution,” Snead said, and slanted meant there was still some doubt that he was a wise risk to take. Ogletree had a positive drug test (marijuana) and a DUI on his resume. There was a chance he would slip.

Consoli: “Cincinnati takes … Tyler Eifert … tight end … Notre Dame. We’re on the clock.”

Houston called to bow out. If the Rams wanted to trade, they had one option, Atlanta at 30. Snead rang Dimitroff. “T,” he asked, “we still on?” The Falcons wanted a future seventh-rounder to clinch the deal, and the Rams had an extra one in 2015 from a trade with New England. Snead okayed it. Now the two teams, St. Louis and Atlanta, had to decide whether to go through with it.

Consoli: “Eight minutes.”

Fisher massaged his 1901 coin. The Falcons were thinking. And thinking.

“Time?” Fisher asked.

Consoli: “Five minutes.”

The phone rang. The Ravens, at No. 32, were feeling out the Rams about moving up if St. Louis traded down. Call you back. There was a palpable but unspoken sense in the room. Take Ogletree here. Don’t risk the trade. We can handle him! We handled Janoris Jenkins!

Fisher and Snead exchanged a look-they agreed that waiting was a gamble worth taking-but amazingly said nothing. Two days earlier they’d decided that if they got this far, like Thelma and Louise they were going off the cliff. Snead dialed Dimitroff’s cell. “T, it’s yours. Who you taking?” A pause and he hung up.

Snead, to the room: “Atlanta … Desmond Trufant.”

Fisher: “We got 30.”

Demoff called in the trade. This time there was no cheering.

“We’ll get one of our guys,” Fisher said, working the gold coin, “or we’ll trade again.”

“Now,” Snead said, “Alec’s sitting in Pat Dye’s living room, and he’ll see us trade down. And if we pick him, he’ll come in with a massive chip on his shoulder.”

9:43 p.m.

There were seven selections to go-Minnesota, Indianapolis, Minnesota again, Green Bay, Houston, Denver and, lastly, New England.

The Ravens called back offering a fifth-rounder to switch spots from 32 to 30. Dallas owned the 31st pick, and Snead asked his pro personnel czar, Ran Carthon, to run down the Cowboys’ linebackers to see if they were a threat for Ogletree. Meanwhile, Demoff worked the phone, “scenario-shopping” with teams positioned high in round 2. “You have any interest in coming up to 30?” he asked Eagles G.M. Howie Roseman, preparing to trade if Ogletree was off the board at 30.

Sharrif Floyd to the Vikes. Bjoern Werner to the Colts. Xavier Rhodes to the Vikes.

Consoli: “Green Bay takes … Datone Jones … defensive end … UCLA.” Then silence. Fisher, speechless, stood up and stared at the board, still working the 112-year-old gold piece. Wasn’t that supposed to be a lucky coin? Now it was Ogletree at 30 or bust. Oh, the Rams would talk bravely about what a good player Larry Warford is-but convincing their own defensive coaches would be much tougher.

“Want me to offer Houston a [sixth-round pick] to move down to us?” Demoff asked. Fisher grabbed the phone instead and dialed Texans G.M. Rick Smith, who was on the clock.

“Hey, you staying?” he asked. “Would you go to us for 198 [the Rams’ sixth-rounder]?”

Evidently not. Fisher, off the phone, told Snead, “They want 113.” No way the Rams were giving up a fourth-rounder to climb three spots. Minutes passed.

Consoli: “Houston takes … DeAndre Hopkins … receiver … Clemson.”

The Broncos on the clock at 28. “Ran, give me Denver’s linebackers,” Snead called out, and Carthon went into detail about players and contracts. Snead got on the phone. Whom he called, he wouldn’t say, but with five minutes left he huddled with Fisher and Demoff. Quietly, he said, “Denver’s deciding between,” and he wrote in pencil on a Post-it: LACY WILLIAMS OGLETREE.

Alabama running back Eddie Lacy. North Carolina defensive tackle Sylvester Williams. And Alec Ogletree. “They just signed Wesley Woodyard to play [weakside linebacker],” Snead said. “I can’t see them taking Ogletree.”

“But,” one scout said, “Ogletree was in Denver on the last day for visits.” No one else spoke.

10:13 p.m.

Consoli: “Denver takes Sylvester Williams … defensive tackle … North Carolina.”

Cheers-but not wild ones-and the first smile from Fisher in two hours. He tossed the coin on the table. “I bring it out once a year for the draft,” he said. "For luck. Maybe… " Demoff held his fist out for a bump, but Fisher shook his head. Not yet. Not yet.

Another call: Vikings G.M. Rick Spielman ringing Demoff, and the conversation went quickly before Demoff hung up. “They’ll give us their two, three and four for 30,” he said.

Snead: “No, no…”

Fisher: “No more screwing around now.”

Two, three, four minutes passed. The 29th pick, New England’s, was being auctioned.

Consoli: “Minnesota has traded into this pick.”

“Gotta be Manti Te’o,” said Snead.

Nope. A minute passed. Then two. Consoli: “Minnesota takes … Cordarrelle Patterson…” The rest of it, you couldn’t hear. There was too much screaming…

(source: Peter King, SI)

@DB. Genuine question. As a 9ers fan what version of Alex smith do you think the chiefs will have? The guy from the last 2 years or the guy who got temporarily replaced by JT o Sullivan?

[quote]redstar144 wrote:
@DB. Genuine question. As a 9ers fan what version of Alex smith do you think the chiefs will have? The guy from the last 2 years or the guy who got temporarily replaced by JT o Sullivan?[/quote]

Probably the guy from the last two years, since he was replaced by JT O’Sullivan due to season-ending injury and subsequent shoulder surgery and I’m not going to assume he’ll be injured this year.

He won’t lose any games for the Chiefs and he might win one or two for them, but he won’t be any sort of difference-maker for them. They have some weapons on offense but he’s hardly the guy to take advantage of them.

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
In all seriousness Kapernick is gonna have an average maybe slightly above average year. The 49s schedule is favorable, which helps. He’ll have 25-30 combined TDs, like 3,000-3,500 yds passing, and 300-600 yrds rushing. Niners will make the playoffs, but I’m not sold they will win the division. Seattle’s schedule is favorable too. Teams will adjust to Kap this year, same with RG3, same with other “pistol” QBs. [/quote]

First of all, the stats you listed off are hardly “average” stats for an NFL QB. They’re well above average.

If you project his stats in 7 starts last year out over the course of an entire season he has pretty remarkable stats for someone in his first year of playing time (I think he attempted all of five passes in 2011 and had no rushing attempts). That sort of projection comes out to roughly:

4000 passing yards (that would rank 12th in the NFL last year)
Completion % of 62.4 (good for 11th)
Passing yards per attempt of 8.32 (good for 1st, which illustrates how good he is from the pocket and how he’s not strictly a runner)
Passer rating of 98.3 (7th in the league)
Rushing yards 900 rushing yards (1st amongst QBs and 19th overall)
23 passing TDs (14th)
11 rushing TDs (1st amongst QBs and 5th overall)
7 INTs (2nd)
Total Quarterback Rating 76.3 (3rd in the NFL)

And those stats are just assuming that he maintains his pace from last year. If he shows marked improvement from last year those stats all go up significantly. Based on how well he was throwing the ball as he gained more experience, including throughout the playoffs, I expect his trajectory to continue upward. There is simply nothing average about the way the guy played last year and for him to drop down into “average” QB play would represent a VERY significant statistical regression on his part.

I think the really telling statistics are his QBR and his average passing yards per attempt vs. his completion percentage. The guy makes more downfield throws than literally any QB in the league based on last year. He averaged 8.32 yards per attempt in the regular season but jumped way up to 9.98 in the postseason against some pretty good defenses in Atlanta and Baltimore.

No QB who completed a higher percentage of his regular season throws than Kaepernick’s postseason completion % of 61.3 came anywhere close to averaging 9.98 yards per attempt. RG3 was the only QB in the regular season who completed more than 61.3 % of his throws and averaged more than 8 yards per attempt (65.6/8.14). Kaepernick’s regular season completion % and yards per attempt were also tops. No one who completed more than 62.3 % of their passes averaged as much as 8.32 yards per attempt and RG3 was the ONLY QB who averaged more than 62.3 % AND more than 8 yards per attempt. When it comes to downfield passing, Kaepernick is already in very rarefied air.

Kaepernick, based on both his first 7 career starts along with his postseason play, has already shown to be an extremely elite passer, arguably more elite than anyone when it comes to downfield passing accuracy. And we all know that he is arguably the premiere running QB in the league, given his 10.6 rushing yards per attempt average, which is light years in front of RG3’s average (6.8).

And then of course we have QBR, which is a stat that takes into account the game context in which stats are accumulated. Basically, the stats reflect the importance of the situation so that clutch performances are elevated above statistically-identical performances in garbage time and against poorer teams. Kaepernick finished above everyone but Brady and Peyton Manning last year in that category.

So what exactly makes you think a guy like Kaepernick, who CLEARLY has very rare throwing and running ability and has already proven he’s more than simply untapped potential, will be anywhere close to average next year? NOTHING about him is average.

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
In all seriousness Kapernick is gonna have an average maybe slightly above average year. The 49s schedule is favorable, which helps. He’ll have 25-30 combined TDs, like 3,000-3,500 yds passing, and 300-600 yrds rushing. Niners will make the playoffs, but I’m not sold they will win the division. Seattle’s schedule is favorable too. Teams will adjust to Kap this year, same with RG3, same with other “pistol” QBs. [/quote]

First of all, the stats you listed off are hardly “average” stats for an NFL QB. They’re well above average.

If you project his stats in 7 starts last year out over the course of an entire season he has pretty remarkable stats for someone in his first year of playing time (I think he attempted all of five passes in 2011 and had no rushing attempts). That sort of projection comes out to roughly:

4000 passing yards (that would rank 12th in the NFL last year)
Completion % of 62.4 (good for 11th)
Passing yards per attempt of 8.32 (good for 1st, which illustrates how good he is from the pocket and how he’s not strictly a runner)
Passer rating of 98.3 (7th in the league)
Rushing yards 900 rushing yards (1st amongst QBs and 19th overall)
23 passing TDs (14th)
11 rushing TDs (1st amongst QBs and 5th overall)
7 INTs (2nd)
Total Quarterback Rating 76.3 (3rd in the NFL)

And those stats are just assuming that he maintains his pace from last year. If he shows marked improvement from last year those stats all go up significantly. Based on how well he was throwing the ball as he gained more experience, including throughout the playoffs, I expect his trajectory to continue upward. There is simply nothing average about the way the guy played last year and for him to drop down into “average” QB play would represent a VERY significant statistical regression on his part.

I think the really telling statistics are his QBR and his average passing yards per attempt vs. his completion percentage. The guy makes more downfield throws than literally any QB in the league based on last year. He averaged 8.32 yards per attempt in the regular season but jumped way up to 9.98 in the postseason against some pretty good defenses in Atlanta and Baltimore.

No QB who completed a higher percentage of his regular season throws than Kaepernick’s postseason completion % of 61.3 came anywhere close to averaging 9.98 yards per attempt. RG3 was the only QB in the regular season who completed more than 61.3 % of his throws and averaged more than 8 yards per attempt (65.6/8.14). Kaepernick’s regular season completion % and yards per attempt were also tops. No one who completed more than 62.3 % of their passes averaged as much as 8.32 yards per attempt and RG3 was the ONLY QB who averaged more than 62.3 % AND more than 8 yards per attempt. When it comes to downfield passing, Kaepernick is already in very rarefied air.

Kaepernick, based on both his first 7 career starts along with his postseason play, has already shown to be an extremely elite passer, arguably more elite than anyone when it comes to downfield passing accuracy. And we all know that he is arguably the premiere running QB in the league, given his 10.6 rushing yards per attempt average, which is light years in front of RG3’s average (6.8).

And then of course we have QBR, which is a stat that takes into account the game context in which stats are accumulated. Basically, the stats reflect the importance of the situation so that clutch performances are elevated above statistically-identical performances in garbage time and against poorer teams. Kaepernick finished above everyone but Brady and Peyton Manning last year in that category.

So what exactly makes you think a guy like Kaepernick, who CLEARLY has very rare throwing and running ability and has already proven he’s more than simply untapped potential, will be anywhere close to average next year? NOTHING about him is average.[/quote]

hey man didn’t you see a few pages ago, using stats to back stuff up is sort of shunned upon in this

here thread, sweeping generalizations will do.

stats… pfft, aint nobody got time for that.

[quote]js252 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
In all seriousness Kapernick is gonna have an average maybe slightly above average year. The 49s schedule is favorable, which helps. He’ll have 25-30 combined TDs, like 3,000-3,500 yds passing, and 300-600 yrds rushing. Niners will make the playoffs, but I’m not sold they will win the division. Seattle’s schedule is favorable too. Teams will adjust to Kap this year, same with RG3, same with other “pistol” QBs. [/quote]

First of all, the stats you listed off are hardly “average” stats for an NFL QB. They’re well above average.

If you project his stats in 7 starts last year out over the course of an entire season he has pretty remarkable stats for someone in his first year of playing time (I think he attempted all of five passes in 2011 and had no rushing attempts). That sort of projection comes out to roughly:

4000 passing yards (that would rank 12th in the NFL last year)
Completion % of 62.4 (good for 11th)
Passing yards per attempt of 8.32 (good for 1st, which illustrates how good he is from the pocket and how he’s not strictly a runner)
Passer rating of 98.3 (7th in the league)
Rushing yards 900 rushing yards (1st amongst QBs and 19th overall)
23 passing TDs (14th)
11 rushing TDs (1st amongst QBs and 5th overall)
7 INTs (2nd)
Total Quarterback Rating 76.3 (3rd in the NFL)

And those stats are just assuming that he maintains his pace from last year. If he shows marked improvement from last year those stats all go up significantly. Based on how well he was throwing the ball as he gained more experience, including throughout the playoffs, I expect his trajectory to continue upward. There is simply nothing average about the way the guy played last year and for him to drop down into “average” QB play would represent a VERY significant statistical regression on his part.

I think the really telling statistics are his QBR and his average passing yards per attempt vs. his completion percentage. The guy makes more downfield throws than literally any QB in the league based on last year. He averaged 8.32 yards per attempt in the regular season but jumped way up to 9.98 in the postseason against some pretty good defenses in Atlanta and Baltimore.

No QB who completed a higher percentage of his regular season throws than Kaepernick’s postseason completion % of 61.3 came anywhere close to averaging 9.98 yards per attempt. RG3 was the only QB in the regular season who completed more than 61.3 % of his throws and averaged more than 8 yards per attempt (65.6/8.14). Kaepernick’s regular season completion % and yards per attempt were also tops. No one who completed more than 62.3 % of their passes averaged as much as 8.32 yards per attempt and RG3 was the ONLY QB who averaged more than 62.3 % AND more than 8 yards per attempt. When it comes to downfield passing, Kaepernick is already in very rarefied air.

Kaepernick, based on both his first 7 career starts along with his postseason play, has already shown to be an extremely elite passer, arguably more elite than anyone when it comes to downfield passing accuracy. And we all know that he is arguably the premiere running QB in the league, given his 10.6 rushing yards per attempt average, which is light years in front of RG3’s average (6.8).

And then of course we have QBR, which is a stat that takes into account the game context in which stats are accumulated. Basically, the stats reflect the importance of the situation so that clutch performances are elevated above statistically-identical performances in garbage time and against poorer teams. Kaepernick finished above everyone but Brady and Peyton Manning last year in that category.

So what exactly makes you think a guy like Kaepernick, who CLEARLY has very rare throwing and running ability and has already proven he’s more than simply untapped potential, will be anywhere close to average next year? NOTHING about him is average.[/quote]

hey man didn’t you see a few pages ago, using stats to back stuff up is sort of shunned upon in this

here thread, sweeping generalizations will do.

stats… pfft, aint nobody got time for that.[/quote]

Oh yeah, I forgot. Stats are only good for determining points in fantasy leagues. Otherwise, they’re meaningless.

.

You really shouldn’t put a face on your target practice, thats bad juju like hell.

[quote]USMCpoolee wrote:
You really shouldn’t put a face on your target practice, thats bad juju like hell.[/quote]

Yeah, but it was fun as hell…

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
In all seriousness Kapernick is gonna have an average maybe slightly above average year. The 49s schedule is favorable, which helps. He’ll have 25-30 combined TDs, like 3,000-3,500 yds passing, and 300-600 yrds rushing. Niners will make the playoffs, but I’m not sold they will win the division. Seattle’s schedule is favorable too. Teams will adjust to Kap this year, same with RG3, same with other “pistol” QBs. [/quote]

First of all, the stats you listed off are hardly “average” stats for an NFL QB. They’re well above average.

If you project his stats in 7 starts last year out over the course of an entire season he has pretty remarkable stats for someone in his first year of playing time (I think he attempted all of five passes in 2011 and had no rushing attempts). That sort of projection comes out to roughly:

4000 passing yards (that would rank 12th in the NFL last year)
Completion % of 62.4 (good for 11th)
Passing yards per attempt of 8.32 (good for 1st, which illustrates how good he is from the pocket and how he’s not strictly a runner)
Passer rating of 98.3 (7th in the league)
Rushing yards 900 rushing yards (1st amongst QBs and 19th overall)
23 passing TDs (14th)
11 rushing TDs (1st amongst QBs and 5th overall)
7 INTs (2nd)
Total Quarterback Rating 76.3 (3rd in the NFL)

And those stats are just assuming that he maintains his pace from last year. If he shows marked improvement from last year those stats all go up significantly. Based on how well he was throwing the ball as he gained more experience, including throughout the playoffs, I expect his trajectory to continue upward. There is simply nothing average about the way the guy played last year and for him to drop down into “average” QB play would represent a VERY significant statistical regression on his part.

I think the really telling statistics are his QBR and his average passing yards per attempt vs. his completion percentage. The guy makes more downfield throws than literally any QB in the league based on last year. He averaged 8.32 yards per attempt in the regular season but jumped way up to 9.98 in the postseason against some pretty good defenses in Atlanta and Baltimore.

No QB who completed a higher percentage of his regular season throws than Kaepernick’s postseason completion % of 61.3 came anywhere close to averaging 9.98 yards per attempt. RG3 was the only QB in the regular season who completed more than 61.3 % of his throws and averaged more than 8 yards per attempt (65.6/8.14). Kaepernick’s regular season completion % and yards per attempt were also tops. No one who completed more than 62.3 % of their passes averaged as much as 8.32 yards per attempt and RG3 was the ONLY QB who averaged more than 62.3 % AND more than 8 yards per attempt. When it comes to downfield passing, Kaepernick is already in very rarefied air.

Kaepernick, based on both his first 7 career starts along with his postseason play, has already shown to be an extremely elite passer, arguably more elite than anyone when it comes to downfield passing accuracy. And we all know that he is arguably the premiere running QB in the league, given his 10.6 rushing yards per attempt average, which is light years in front of RG3’s average (6.8).

And then of course we have QBR, which is a stat that takes into account the game context in which stats are accumulated. Basically, the stats reflect the importance of the situation so that clutch performances are elevated above statistically-identical performances in garbage time and against poorer teams. Kaepernick finished above everyone but Brady and Peyton Manning last year in that category.

So what exactly makes you think a guy like Kaepernick, who CLEARLY has very rare throwing and running ability and has already proven he’s more than simply untapped potential, will be anywhere close to average next year? NOTHING about him is average.[/quote]

I think you misunderstood me. I think Kap will be a good QB next year and in the future. He has the tools to be a great QB in fact. I expect he will come back to earth this year though. I think the praise while warranted is still premature. Let’s see what he does over the course of a full season. I don’t expect him to play at the level he played at last season for an entire season. I also think defensive coordinators will have a solution for the pistol offense this year. They will at least be able to handle it better anyway.

He’s going to be GOOD…I just expect him to be brought back to earth this year is the take away message here.

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:

[quote]DBCooper wrote:

[quote]usmccds423 wrote:
In all seriousness Kapernick is gonna have an average maybe slightly above average year. The 49s schedule is favorable, which helps. He’ll have 25-30 combined TDs, like 3,000-3,500 yds passing, and 300-600 yrds rushing. Niners will make the playoffs, but I’m not sold they will win the division. Seattle’s schedule is favorable too. Teams will adjust to Kap this year, same with RG3, same with other “pistol” QBs. [/quote]

First of all, the stats you listed off are hardly “average” stats for an NFL QB. They’re well above average.

If you project his stats in 7 starts last year out over the course of an entire season he has pretty remarkable stats for someone in his first year of playing time (I think he attempted all of five passes in 2011 and had no rushing attempts). That sort of projection comes out to roughly:

4000 passing yards (that would rank 12th in the NFL last year)
Completion % of 62.4 (good for 11th)
Passing yards per attempt of 8.32 (good for 1st, which illustrates how good he is from the pocket and how he’s not strictly a runner)
Passer rating of 98.3 (7th in the league)
Rushing yards 900 rushing yards (1st amongst QBs and 19th overall)
23 passing TDs (14th)
11 rushing TDs (1st amongst QBs and 5th overall)
7 INTs (2nd)
Total Quarterback Rating 76.3 (3rd in the NFL)

And those stats are just assuming that he maintains his pace from last year. If he shows marked improvement from last year those stats all go up significantly. Based on how well he was throwing the ball as he gained more experience, including throughout the playoffs, I expect his trajectory to continue upward. There is simply nothing average about the way the guy played last year and for him to drop down into “average” QB play would represent a VERY significant statistical regression on his part.

I think the really telling statistics are his QBR and his average passing yards per attempt vs. his completion percentage. The guy makes more downfield throws than literally any QB in the league based on last year. He averaged 8.32 yards per attempt in the regular season but jumped way up to 9.98 in the postseason against some pretty good defenses in Atlanta and Baltimore.

No QB who completed a higher percentage of his regular season throws than Kaepernick’s postseason completion % of 61.3 came anywhere close to averaging 9.98 yards per attempt. RG3 was the only QB in the regular season who completed more than 61.3 % of his throws and averaged more than 8 yards per attempt (65.6/8.14). Kaepernick’s regular season completion % and yards per attempt were also tops. No one who completed more than 62.3 % of their passes averaged as much as 8.32 yards per attempt and RG3 was the ONLY QB who averaged more than 62.3 % AND more than 8 yards per attempt. When it comes to downfield passing, Kaepernick is already in very rarefied air.

Kaepernick, based on both his first 7 career starts along with his postseason play, has already shown to be an extremely elite passer, arguably more elite than anyone when it comes to downfield passing accuracy. And we all know that he is arguably the premiere running QB in the league, given his 10.6 rushing yards per attempt average, which is light years in front of RG3’s average (6.8).

And then of course we have QBR, which is a stat that takes into account the game context in which stats are accumulated. Basically, the stats reflect the importance of the situation so that clutch performances are elevated above statistically-identical performances in garbage time and against poorer teams. Kaepernick finished above everyone but Brady and Peyton Manning last year in that category.

So what exactly makes you think a guy like Kaepernick, who CLEARLY has very rare throwing and running ability and has already proven he’s more than simply untapped potential, will be anywhere close to average next year? NOTHING about him is average.[/quote]

I think you misunderstood me. I think Kap will be a good QB next year and in the future. He has the tools to be a great QB in fact. I expect he will come back to earth this year though. I think the praise while warranted is still premature. Let’s see what he does over the course of a full season. I don’t expect him to play at the level he played at last season for an entire season. I also think defensive coordinators will have a solution for the pistol offense this year. They will at least be able to handle it better anyway.

He’s going to be GOOD…I just expect him to be brought back to earth this year is the take away message here. [/quote]

Ditto. Defenses have had all winter to figure it out and I am pretty sure most of them have. I predict the read-option will not be near as successful this year. That doesn’t mean he won’t be really good, but the ‘shock and awe’ factor is no longer in play.