Awesome article on truehoop today about the role of advanced stats in NBA analysis (and how to better get across to people that they really mean something):
A couple key outtakes:
First, a general point:
[quote]Henry Abbot wrote:
Statistics are of particular interest right now because this is their moment, in the NBA. They are not only new, but they are screaming, convincingly, that teams have been making silly mistakes for decades.
Because of this kind of insight, teams are, as we speak, throwing more dollars at more efficient players.
It’s cool to understand that the league is transforming itself in this way, in real time, and unless you want to be proved wrong, often, you have to follow the conversation. There are new ways to see the game, and they matter. There is real, useful, actionable information among the true shooting and rebounding percentages.
You can laugh it off if you want, but know that armed primarily with Microsoft Excel, John Hollinger can beat Vegas, the Bulls can win playing offensively challenged players long minutes, and teams can recognize that some undersized draftees will still rebound like maniacs at the next level.[/quote]
(link to the guy who studied 25 different sets of predictions and showed John Hollinger was the only one to beat Vegas Odds for W/L over/unders in 2010-2011: Accuracy of Predictions for Wins in NBA in 2010/11 | Weak Side Awareness )
Second outtake, about Kobe because why not:
[quote] Henry Abbot wrote:
…these kinds of stats will thrive primarily behind the curtain. Like plumbing, cars or the collective bargaining agreement, they will become ubiquitous once users can get the best of them without having to learn how they work. The rules surrounding trades are important as hell to fans, writers, player and GMs – nevertheless almost all those people would be lost without the trade machine.
So, what is the stat equivalent of the trade machine? The tool that can encapsulate the wisdom without the lecture?
Video. Game footage.
In other words, don’t tell me Kobe Bryant takes a lot of insanely difficult shots in crunch time, show me those fallaway leaners against the triple team.
Right now the reason a lot of teams don’t make smarter decisions is, I’d argue, because they have key decision-makers who simply don’t get statistics. They are so incredibly incurious that it matters not at all what any stat person might say.
These people say things like “I watch the game,” and “I believe my eyes.”
Kobe’s response to data that he hurts the Lakers in crunch time was, essentially, you’re going to believe stats?
To me, the fact that the Laker offense loses all punch in crunch time, that they’re outscored, and that Bryant is setting all-time records for misses … those aren’t stats. That’s counting. That’s counting real stuff that really matters on the basketball court.[/quote]
A-FUCKING-MEN
[quote]Henry Abbot wrote:
To Bryant, though, and a ton of other people who play, coach, and watch basketball, all that amounts to: I don’t know who counted what, but it doesn’t mean a damn thing to me.
And in a world where stats have been crude and misused for years, Bryant’s skeptical approach is the dominant one.[/quote]
-SNIP-
[quote]…Use the stats and the spreadsheets more than ever, but behind-the-scenes, like plumbing – not as the final element in the presentation.
If I had the video rights, I’d be working on that crunch time video right now. Here Kobe, see for yourself how that iso crunch time offense is going.
That video would be devastating. That’s the way to make your arguments. That’s the way to win – not just the argument, but basketball games[/quote]
The whole thing is really well written and I suggest if you want to comment on those passages you read it in its entirety.
EDITED