MLB 2011 Part Two

Off Topic
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[quote]scj119 wrote:

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

[quote]scj119 wrote:
Let me reiterate that last point. Granderson has had 141 at bats with runners in scoring position to Bautista’s 93. Bautista would have to be the best hitter of all time to make up that difference.[/quote]

Read my posts earlier on. We covered all of this already.

WHat you are saying is that the player on the bad team should have his stats given more weight than the player on the good team.

PRODUCTION wins games. Winning games is all that matters. You get credit for production, not for potential production. Again, if potential production was the barometer it would be impossible to have anything close to a concrete analysis of worth. [/quote]

OK, well if you’re penalizing someone for not having a chance to drive in runs, we simply aren’t going to agree and will have to leave it at that. Fair enough.[/quote]

Raj has posted stats already that show that Bautista drives in runs at a lower rate than Granderson and Gonz do. A slightly lower rate, very small difference, but a lower rate nonetheless.

That means for the opportunities he does get, he cashes in less often.

Youd think a guy with a 320 average would be able to drive in runs at a higher percentage than a guy with an avg hovering around 260 the whole season.

Your turn.

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Alright, yeah I think it’s best not to rehash this argument. If we can’t agree on what stats are meaningful it’s pointless.

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[quote]scj119 wrote:
I think of the MVP as going to the best player. Most valuable to me is who would be paid the most for the current year’s production, knowing what we know now. IMO if you plopped Bautista where Granderson is, he’d have more RBI, ergo, he’s more valuable. But it is a term people can interpret differently, and that’s fine.

Also, we are strictly talking offense, that’s what raj stated at the start… I personally think defense is part of the MVP debate and Granderson plays the tougher position by far, so that would be weighed if I had a vote.[/quote]

Granderson has had sub par defense all year. Even if Granderson plays CF, Bautista plays 2 positions slightly above average.

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[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

[quote]scj119 wrote:

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

[quote]scj119 wrote:
Let me reiterate that last point. Granderson has had 141 at bats with runners in scoring position to Bautista’s 93. Bautista would have to be the best hitter of all time to make up that difference.[/quote]

Read my posts earlier on. We covered all of this already.

WHat you are saying is that the player on the bad team should have his stats given more weight than the player on the good team.

PRODUCTION wins games. Winning games is all that matters. You get credit for production, not for potential production. Again, if potential production was the barometer it would be impossible to have anything close to a concrete analysis of worth. [/quote]

OK, well if you’re penalizing someone for not having a chance to drive in runs, we simply aren’t going to agree and will have to leave it at that. Fair enough.[/quote]

Raj has posted stats already that show that Bautista drives in runs at a lower rate than Granderson and Gonz do. A slightly lower rate, very small difference, but a lower rate nonetheless.

That means for the opportunities he does get, he cashes in less often.

Youd think a guy with a 320 average would be able to drive in runs at a higher percentage than a guy with an avg hovering around 260 the whole season.

Your turn. [/quote]

Well I don’t have time to do a detailed analysis but my assumption is that Bautista is constantly getting walked in those positions… unless you are talking about at-bats instead of plate appearances. The other thing is, I don’t even know where’d you’d find this, but I bet Granderson has multiple runners on base far more often than Bautista (making “men on base” and “RISP” not apples-to-apples for them). Simply because his players are good.

I should say I’m not convinced Bautista is the MVP to be honest - I’m just very against taking teammates’ ability into consideratoin (i.e. getting on base in front of you). That’s really what I’m arguing against.

Honestly I get your point, we just have different definitions of valuable. Bautista has had less opportunities than Granderson - we agree on that. We disagree on how that should be applied. I think Bautista has had the better offensive season because he makes less outs and has similar power. You think Granderson has had the better offensive season because he’s had a lot of opportunities and has made the most of them. Neither of us are going to convince the other.

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[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:
MVP does NOT mean most vauable to HIS team. It means most valuable player. Most valuable to ANY team.

Bautista being on the Blue Jays is irrelevant in a discussion like this.
[/quote]

I agree it shouldn’t but after skimming the list of previous AL MVP winners, every player was on a team headed to the post season or at least competing for a playoff spot until the very end of the season.

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

Bautista shouldnt win the MVP because his RBIs are too low. 3:1 rbi:hr ratio is typical/acceptable. Runs are what win games. Runs scored and RBI are the two most important offensive stats. HR is a good stat because the guys who hit the most homers have the best chance to get a lot of RBI but a guy with 25 homers 45 doubles 115 rbi is more valuable than 45 homers 110 rbi (which may be exactly where Baustista winds up). Yes, Bautista’s lineup isnt great around him but the Jays still rank 4th in the AL in runs scored. I wouldnt be mad if he did win but I dont think he should. [/quote]

I agree runs scored is a good TEAM stat but not for individual performance. It’s best to look at OBP because a player who gets on base a lot puts himself into a position to score more often. The physical times he actually crosses the plate is merely an indicator of the player’s abilities behind him.

As for total RBI, I explained briefly why I dislike this stat but let me put it another way. Does it matter to you that A-Gon and Granderson have had 158 and 138 AB with RISP while Bautista has had only 84?

Of those AB:

Bautista has earned 38 RBI in 84 AB (45.2%)

A-Gon 74 RBI in 158 AB (46.8%)

Granderon 63RBI in 138 AB (45.6%)

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/player/splits/2011/393076
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/player/splits/2011/288903
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/player/splits/2011/392528
[/quote]

This is what BONEZ is referring to

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So what’s the deal with Sabathia this offseason?

Has there been any indication if he’s leaning towards free agency or staying with the Yanks?

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[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]scj119 wrote:
I think of the MVP as going to the best player. Most valuable to me is who would be paid the most for the current year’s production, knowing what we know now. IMO if you plopped Bautista where Granderson is, he’d have more RBI, ergo, he’s more valuable. But it is a term people can interpret differently, and that’s fine.

Also, we are strictly talking offense, that’s what raj stated at the start… I personally think defense is part of the MVP debate and Granderson plays the tougher position by far, so that would be weighed if I had a vote.[/quote]

Granderson has had sub par defense all year. .[/quote]

What are you basing this on?

You dont watch more than a handful of the games the Yankees play. Which talking head put this thought in yours? Come on man

Last night he won the game with a catch he made.

But seriously. What are you basing his ‘sub par’ defense ‘all year’ on? Metrics again?

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[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

[quote]therajraj wrote:

[quote]scj119 wrote:
I think of the MVP as going to the best player. Most valuable to me is who would be paid the most for the current year’s production, knowing what we know now. IMO if you plopped Bautista where Granderson is, he’d have more RBI, ergo, he’s more valuable. But it is a term people can interpret differently, and that’s fine.

Also, we are strictly talking offense, that’s what raj stated at the start… I personally think defense is part of the MVP debate and Granderson plays the tougher position by far, so that would be weighed if I had a vote.[/quote]

Granderson has had sub par defense all year. .[/quote]

What are you basing this on?

You dont watch more than a handful of the games the Yankees play. Which talking head put this thought in yours? Come on man

Last night he won the game with a catch he made.

But seriously. What are you basing his ‘sub par’ defense ‘all year’ on? Metrics again? [/quote]

No, I don’t really like defensive metrics all that much. It’s from what I read.

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Looks like Bill Simmon’s agree with me. Verlander’s the MVP:

P.S. Verlander was $ again tonight.

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You guys get way too much into this MVP vote. This is the closest I have seen it in years. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the guys mentioned get it.

Lets see some odds…
http://props.scoresandodds.com/section_display.cfm?section_id=136&startdate=9/1/2011

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[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:
Looks like Bill Simmon’s agree with me. Verlander’s the MVP:

P.S. Verlander was $ again tonight.[/quote]

If verlander winds up winning 25-26 games without losing another decision I think I’d have to give it to him as well.

The tigers are something like 26-6 when he pitches. And are a .500 team when he doesnt pitch. If he wins it wont be by a large margin though.

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[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:
Looks like Bill Simmon’s agree with me. Verlander’s the MVP:

P.S. Verlander was $ again tonight.[/quote]

The tigers are something like 26-6 when he pitches. And are a .500 team when he doesnt pitch. If he wins it wont be by a large margin though. [/quote]

I think that right there is the definition of MVP.

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Verlander is no doubt in the discussion.

3-way race between Verlander, Granderson and Bautista IMO (actually like Ellsbury as a darkhorse), but close enough that anyone can take it with a great finish.

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[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:
Looks like Bill Simmon’s agree with me. Verlander’s the MVP:

P.S. Verlander was $ again tonight.[/quote]

If verlander winds up winning 25-26 games without losing another decision I think I’d have to give it to him as well.

The tigers are something like 26-6 when he pitches. And are a .500 team when he doesnt pitch. If he wins it wont be by a large margin though. [/quote]

I’ve seen that stat… being that I’m a math guy I typically dismiss 30-game sample size… but damn is that impressive.

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Giants broadcaster swindles kettle corn guy

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.

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He gets the kettle corn guy’s attention, finally receives the product and then stiffs the guy! Stay classy Duane Kuiper

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[quote]scj119 wrote:

[quote]BONEZ217 wrote:

[quote]WestCoast7 wrote:
Looks like Bill Simmon’s agree with me. Verlander’s the MVP:

P.S. Verlander was $ again tonight.[/quote]

If verlander winds up winning 25-26 games without losing another decision I think I’d have to give it to him as well.

The tigers are something like 26-6 when he pitches. And are a .500 team when he doesnt pitch. If he wins it wont be by a large margin though. [/quote]

I’ve seen that stat… being that I’m a math guy I typically dismiss 30-game sample size… but damn is that impressive.[/quote]

The simplest proof of how valuable he’s been to his playoff bound squad. If he finishes out the year strong, he’s got to take it.

His stuff is simply filthy, and that’s coming from a guy who gets to watch Lincecum every week.

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[quote]therajraj wrote:
He gets the kettle corn guy’s attention, finally receives the product and then stiffs the guy! Stay classy Duane Kuiper[/quote]

I guarantee the dude got a $20 spot. We just like to keep things entertaining over here.

Obviously I’m a homer, but I think Kruk and Kuip, along with John Miller, are the best in the business. They’re exactly what baseball commentators should be.

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All this arguing over what stat means more to the MVP vote and all that is a bunch of bullshit. OBP is important to top of the order hitters. Avg w/ RISP, which removes the amount of runners actually on base in front of a hitter from the equation, is the most important hitting statistic for a middle of the lineup hitter like Adrian Gonzalez or Jose Bautista.

The most important thing Bautista could do for his team is not get on base and leave it up to others to drive him in. He isn’t paid for that. He’s paid to hit home runs and drive runs in. And at this he’s an utter failure, batting .240 with RISP as opposed to .315 without them in scoring position. You guys can argue all you want about total runs scored or RBI’s but it doesn’t change the fact that if Bautista DID hit well with RISP he would compare much more favorably to Granderson or Gonzalez. He does NOT compare favorably because he hits about 100 points lower than Adrian Gonzalez does with RISP and THAT is why his RBI total is significantly lower.

Bautista is not the MVP for that simple fact. He does not drive in runs at the same pace that Gonzalez does because he doesn’t hit well in the clutch. Toronto’s #1 and #2 hitters get on base and/or advance runners into scoring position. For who? Bautista. He isn’t being paid to get on base, period. The Blue Jays don’t give a shit about his high OBP because it doesn’t help them win games. Bautista driving in runs helps them win games, period. He doesn’t do it that well, period.