[quote]Regular Gonzalez wrote:
Professor X wrote:
seanc wrote:
Exactly. The probability arguement also asssumes a serial execution until an event happens. It does not allow for millions and billions of simultaneous reactions occuring over 100’s of millions of years.
It also assumes that the first life looked like something we would call life, ie…the first life was of very high order complexity.
Well, one thing is for sure…for the instantaneous life theory to be likely, life, however simple, would have to have a WILL to survive and a drive to perfect itself for the theory to even be plausible. What would give instant life its drive to continue living and “evolving”?
The will to survive is present in all life because the alternative is not to exist. Any life form that developed without this will to live did not survive, whereas life forms that developed with this will to live being present had a chance of survival. It’s really just a case of natural selection.
It is a HUGE assumption that life appeared, wanted to survive, and wanted to get better. In fact, that increases its chance of mprobability and brings into question why life itself confined itself to only this planet. If life was that simple, it could adapt to nearly any environment through sheer will. Why not Saturn?
Life did not form on Saturn because the specific conditions on that planet are not conductive to the formation of life.
You mention the improbability of the formation of life, but improbability is very different to impossibility. Depending on the perspective from which you are looking, any series of events can be viewed as ridiculously improbable.
I will use the results of a hypothetical lotto game as an example to demonstrate this. In this game, 7 numbers will be randomly taken from a bucket containing the numbers 1 through to 50. Say for example you look at the lotto numbers from the past 5 weeks. We are looking these numbers after they have already occurred and they are as follows:
Week 1 - 10,32,29,11,13,27,41
Week 2 - 5,3,22,43,23,21,10
Week 3 - 3,41,22,32,21,7,9
Week 4 - 19,23,26,7,9,11,29
Week 5 - 23,24,48,2,11,15,8,
The probability of any of those specific sets of numbers occurring on any of the 5 weeks is approximately 1 in 99884400. The probability of all of those sequences occurring over the 5 week period is mind bogglingly low at approximately 1^-40.
In the example above, despite the sheer improbability of what happened, no rational person would claim that this must be due to divine intervention. We simply accept that a certain sequence had to happen, and regardless of what the sequence of numbers was that occurred over those five weeks the probability would be the same at 1^-40.
This demonstrates that the reason why we are so perplexed by the improbable nature of certain past events that have occurred relates as much to the way we feel about the specific outcome rather than the actual probability of the event occurring.
We feel no connection with the fact that some random sequence of numbers occurred in a lotto competition, whereas we feel an extremely strong connection to the events that led to our own existence.
In the case of the formation of life, although the specific series of events that would allow the formation of life to occur are very improbable, this improbability is offset by the extreme vastness and age of the universe. We know that the universe is at least 90 billion light years across (possibly much bigger) and believed to be around 13 billion years old.
Although at any point in the universe at any specific point in time the probability of the right conditions occurring for the formation of life is very low, the probability of these conditions occurring in one or multiple places in the incomprehensible vastness of the entire universe is not necessarily low at all.
It is faulty reasoning to say that the chance of life forming in the specific part of the universe that we are located is very small, therefore we must have been created by god. That would be like saying that the specific set of numbers that occurred in the lotto example is so improbable that it must be the work of god.
It makes no logical sense to look at a specific series of events AFTER they have already occurred and then say that those specific events are highly improbable so therefore they must be the work of god.
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But it gives people the warm fuzzies…