Man, it’s really hard to call this one. With Shaw and Licis not at 100%, they’re lucky that fourth place could potentially be enough to qualify directly.
Also, Britain’s Strongest Man on the same day is shaping up to be just as exciting, Bishop and the Stoltmen seem to have the best chances at winning. It’s going to be quite the day for pro strongman.
From everything I’ve read, it seems both Shaw and Licis have to win to qualify, because they do not have enough points from competing in the various Arnolds during 2019. Some of the other competitors can qualify even though they don’t win, based on points.
Yes, the Stoltmen are pretty cool, and moving on up. The shorter one (Luke?) seems really strong at pressing, the tall one (Tom?) is great at stones.
The highest placing competitor who isn’t already qualified qualifies directly at Santa Monica, so Caron, Kearny and Novikov (who are all already qualified and could, if conditions are right and Shaw and Licis have an off day, be dangerous) could possibly share the podium and the fourth-placed guy qualifies as well. Not that I really think this is going to happen…
I’d wager a LOT of money at poor odds that one of Licis/Shaw will be on that podium.
But good info.
tl:dr; That’s right but there is a tiny chance for Shaw if the stars really, really, really align for him.
Long version:
There are 9 points on offer at the Arnold USA for second place.
Martins hasn’t competed at an Arnold so he has 0 points and Shaw competed (in Spain?) for 7 points.
There are two spots available after the winner of the Arnold USA and if Belsak wins it and Heinla zeros everything then the last qualifier needs 23 points.
More than Shaw can accumulate.
That said, Jimmy Paquet sits in 4th with 16 points. A second place would put Shaw in =4th with 16 points and if a competitor pulled out of the Ohio (not that uncommon) Shaw could get a call up based on count back - I think this is the promoters discretion on whether they put someone in and who they call up
So, to summarise, technically Shaw can lose and still make it if:
EDIT: Points are capped at 10, didn’t know this so adjusted accordingly
I actually didn’t notice that, I just saw the list that said 70-90. You’re on top of it then, nevermind me. 
70-90 would have been utterly insane on the sandbags. That’s nuts. Even 60-80 is unfathomable to me.
Based purely on training videos, Martins looks to be stronger at deadlifts than Shaw at the moment. Surprising.
Maybe someone more knowledgeable than I am, can elaborate as to why Shaw imo is wasting his time (training energy as well?) with the block pulls against bands (after deadlifts) this late in his training cycle.
Rob Kearney won Arnolds Austaralia, and he “hopes” he can get 65.
With a 70 as the low, it would’ve been Shaw, maybe Martins, and the rest probably sharing zeros…I’m sure the competitors told the promoters this, and that’s why they made 60 the low.
He uses conjugate.
He’s been doing this long enough to know exactly how that block pull transfers to his deadlift.
Santa Monica is on the 18th. All these huge guys deload at least a week, minimum.
I thought all “systems” go to specificity of events at this late juncture of training. Speaking of “specificity”, Shaw’s already prepping the hamstring excuse…
Anyway. Shaw still has a chance to beat Licis in competition due to their slightly different skill sets. But I am absolutely convinced that Shaw will never beat Thor head to head again. I’d stake my life on it…
(…that’s a sarcastic reference to the forums drama du jour, settle down…)
I think you’re right. I think Shaw will take bag over bar and probably/possibly log from Licis in Santa Monica, but Thor would crush Shaw in both of those currently. I both think and hope that Licis will beat out Shaw in Santa Monica and go on to Columbus, but regardless of how it plays out between them I still see Thor winning in Columbus.
I can’t disagree with this. The Arnold Ohio is tailor made for a guy like Thor. Plus Thor’s training is on point; he does not have to peak for Santa Monica, then again for Ohio like Licis or Shaw will need to.
Yeah, Thor’s training is looking very good at the moment. Good point about the peaking; not doing Santa Monica should definitely be an advantage, although I have no idea how big or small. Nothing is sure of course, injuries can happen like we saw at WSM 2019, and there are several other strong competitors with a good shot at any of the podium placements, most notably Mateusz I think. Novikov is also an extremely dangerous up-and-comer, he did remarkably well both at his Arnold debut last year and in the heat at WSM until getting beaten in the stone duel. I hadn’t watched the full heats of WSM 2019 until I did it now over Christmas, and I must say Novikov really impressed me. But if I had to bet on a winner, my money would definitely be on Thor.
I believe it! I know I don’t compare to the big guys, but as a lightweight strongman, I’m one of the absolute best bag throwers in the world. And for 15 feet, I know I can get 45, probably can’t get 50. Throws like this are interesting because extra bodyweight doesn’t help the way it does on a lot of other events. I know some very strong heavyweights who can’t throw as well as me. So no surprise that a lot of top guys won’t be able to finish this event.
I’m biased because he’s a friend, but I’d definitely put money on Trey winning WSM in the next 10 years, at least once. He’s an absolute monster, particularly on stones. Novikov put up a hell of a fight, but that was the absolute worst luck he could have had as a matchup in that type of event. He may already be the best Atlas stone lifter in the world, and he’s only like 24 years old.
I hope Trey gets a shot at the all time stone record. Supposedly they are going to have a Sunday Record Breaker at the Arnold in March… but unsure how/who they will qualify for it. He deserves to be there for sure.
This will prevent some zeroes. If the opening height was left at 70lbs, several wouldn’t have cleared it. And no one, not eve Thor, could do that series in a minute.
do you follow him on instagram? his tacky-less lifts are insane. I’m pretty sure he could get 500 without tacky on the right stone. He definitely deserves to be at the record breakers event, hopefully he gets that shot.
Oh for sure! I’m not betting against that. He wasn’t as good as Novikov on the other events, but he’s an absolute beast on the stones. Beast is not really a good enough word, he’s almost unbelievably good at stones for his size, age and experience. I saw some recent video of him lifting some huge stone (can’t remember exactly, around 200 kg?) WITHOUT tacky. Holy shit. Bad luck for Novikov indeed. Trey is just as exciting a newcomer as Novikov in my mind, the only reason I didn’t mention him is that as far as I can tell he won’t be competing at the Arnold. I’ll definitely watch out for him at WSM 2020 though.