Started the first leg of my S&P 500 short at 1103 today.
If it continues up, look for it to close the gap in the chart that goes to approx 1116.
Looking at gold and wanting to pull the trigger. Not decided yet.
A piece of light hearted information.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
[quote]on edge wrote:
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
To avoid having the criminals simply confiscating your gold, buy the stocks. More bang for the buck anyway.
[/quote]
It’s more likely your gold company will get confiscated than your gold. If your worried about this type of thing you should be very selective about what countries your gold companies are in.[/quote]
Good point. Agnico-Eagle is in Canada though, which is where I have a lot. I don’t think Canada would do as you describe. But yeah, Aussie and north-of-the-Rio-Grande is probably wise.[/quote]
I agree. South Africa and Central & South American governments are the most likely to seize mineral and oil reserves. I don’t know about Australia, but you are probably right.
[quote]JEATON wrote:
Looking at gold and wanting to pull the trigger. Not decided yet.
[/quote]
If my technical analysis is of any interest to you, I say wait longer on gold. GLD looks like it’s at a great spot to short however, GDX looks like it can easily move to 47 or 48 and gold would most likely move up with it. I’d wait for GDX to at least get to 45.
The Stock market is now moving with Gold, Inflation is coming. If you want to gamble and wait to see if Gold drops down to 1045 or so you can. But at 1115 right now would be a good buy.
Get into gold/silver soon.
I think you misunderstand me. I am wanting to pull the trigger on shorting gold. I still stick with my deflationary theory. I believe gold has a lot further to fall.
Of course, this is in the relative short term, ie two to five years. After that we may very well get the inflation that you are talking of. All things in there time.
[quote]JEATON wrote:
I think you misunderstand me. I am wanting to pull the trigger on shorting gold. I still stick with my deflationary theory. I believe gold has a lot further to fall.
Of course, this is in the relative short term, ie two to five years. After that we may very well get the inflation that you are talking of. All things in there time. [/quote]
Guys,
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure that a lot of top pros find useful, just fell significantly below its 200 day moving average. This is quite bad for the economic outlook.
With the SP dividend yield under 2%, and that ^^^^, I’m bailing all out.
T-Bills, TIPS, and some gold stocks. Gonna get bad.
[quote]JEATON wrote:
I think you misunderstand me. I am wanting to pull the trigger on shorting gold. I still stick with my deflationary theory. I believe gold has a lot further to fall.
Of course, this is in the relative short term, ie two to five years. After that we may very well get the inflation that you are talking of. All things in there time. [/quote]
JEATON i’m doing an investment project right now at VSE. I’ve got some real douchebags in my class who sit and brag about day trading and how much money they make… (yet they’re in college and not pursuing the ridiculous numbers they brag about).
I know how to get steady gains. But after talking with my professor today she told us to take risks you wouldn’t take with your own money. I think you have something here…
Am I to understand that you are shorting both the S&P and Gold? I’d like as much info as possible. Unfortunately VSE has turned off options.
I have 100k of play money.
[quote]MidDistanceMac wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
I think you misunderstand me. I am wanting to pull the trigger on shorting gold. I still stick with my deflationary theory. I believe gold has a lot further to fall.
Of course, this is in the relative short term, ie two to five years. After that we may very well get the inflation that you are talking of. All things in there time. [/quote]
JEATON i’m doing an investment project right now at VSE. I’ve got some real douchebags in my class who sit and brag about day trading and how much money they make… (yet they’re in college and not pursuing the ridiculous numbers they brag about).
I know how to get steady gains. But after talking with my professor today she told us to take risks you wouldn’t take with your own money. I think you have something here…
Am I to understand that you are shorting both the S&P and Gold? I’d like as much info as possible. Unfortunately VSE has turned off options.
I have 100k of play money. [/quote]
I assume you are referring to the Virtual Stock Exchange through MarketWatch. Yes, I am shorting the S&P 500 by way of put options on the SPY. I have not as of yet started shorting gold. I think it will eventually go to at least $800.
I usually do not play individual stocks. I mostly stick to options on the big index ETF’s. If options are out, you might look at using leveraged market ETF’s.
Possible candidates:
Leveraged 200% short ETF’s
S&P 500 - SDS
Dow 30 - DXD
QQQQ - QID
Leveraged 200% long ETF’s
S&P 500 - SSO
DOW 30 - DDM
QQQQ - QLD
You might consider splitting your money three ways between the SDS, DXD and QID.
Either way, I think the best chance of making money in the immediate future is on the short side.
As always, I am in no way professional, and may very well be full of shit. Follow at your own risk.
Oh, and good luck.
[quote]JEATON wrote:
[quote]MidDistanceMac wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
I think you misunderstand me. I am wanting to pull the trigger on shorting gold. I still stick with my deflationary theory. I believe gold has a lot further to fall.
Of course, this is in the relative short term, ie two to five years. After that we may very well get the inflation that you are talking of. All things in there time. [/quote]
JEATON i’m doing an investment project right now at VSE. I’ve got some real douchebags in my class who sit and brag about day trading and how much money they make… (yet they’re in college and not pursuing the ridiculous numbers they brag about).
I know how to get steady gains. But after talking with my professor today she told us to take risks you wouldn’t take with your own money. I think you have something here…
Am I to understand that you are shorting both the S&P and Gold? I’d like as much info as possible. Unfortunately VSE has turned off options.
I have 100k of play money. [/quote]
I assume you are referring to the Virtual Stock Exchange through MarketWatch. Yes, I am shorting the S&P 500 by way of put options on the SPY. I have not as of yet started shorting gold. I think it will eventually go to at least $800.
I usually do not play individual stocks. I mostly stick to options on the big index ETF’s. If options are out, you might look at using leveraged market ETF’s.
Possible candidates:
Leveraged 200% short ETF’s
S&P 500 - SDS
Dow 30 - DXD
QQQQ - QID
Leveraged 200% long ETF’s
S&P 500 - SSO
DOW 30 - DDM
QQQQ - QLD
You might consider splitting your money three ways between the SDS, DXD and QID.
Either way, I think the best chance of making money in the immediate future is on the short side.
As always, I am in no way professional, and may very well be full of shit. Follow at your own risk.
Oh, and good luck.
[/quote]
Thanks JEATON, I wasn’t really planning to much on longing any of the indexes. I have SSO and DDM on my radar, and maybe a ultra short of gold to slow some of the risk down a bit. But these were the types of risks she was asking us to make.
Thanks
[quote]MidDistanceMac wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
[quote]MidDistanceMac wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
I think you misunderstand me. I am wanting to pull the trigger on shorting gold. I still stick with my deflationary theory. I believe gold has a lot further to fall.
Of course, this is in the relative short term, ie two to five years. After that we may very well get the inflation that you are talking of. All things in there time. [/quote]
JEATON i’m doing an investment project right now at VSE. I’ve got some real douchebags in my class who sit and brag about day trading and how much money they make… (yet they’re in college and not pursuing the ridiculous numbers they brag about).
I know how to get steady gains. But after talking with my professor today she told us to take risks you wouldn’t take with your own money. I think you have something here…
Am I to understand that you are shorting both the S&P and Gold? I’d like as much info as possible. Unfortunately VSE has turned off options.
I have 100k of play money. [/quote]
I assume you are referring to the Virtual Stock Exchange through MarketWatch. Yes, I am shorting the S&P 500 by way of put options on the SPY. I have not as of yet started shorting gold. I think it will eventually go to at least $800.
I usually do not play individual stocks. I mostly stick to options on the big index ETF’s. If options are out, you might look at using leveraged market ETF’s.
Possible candidates:
Leveraged 200% short ETF’s
S&P 500 - SDS
Dow 30 - DXD
QQQQ - QID
Leveraged 200% long ETF’s
S&P 500 - SSO
DOW 30 - DDM
QQQQ - QLD
You might consider splitting your money three ways between the SDS, DXD and QID.
Either way, I think the best chance of making money in the immediate future is on the short side.
As always, I am in no way professional, and may very well be full of shit. Follow at your own risk.
Oh, and good luck.
[/quote]
Thanks JEATON, I wasn’t really planning to much on longing any of the indexes. I have SSO and DDM on my radar, and maybe a ultra short of gold to slow some of the risk down a bit. But these were the types of risks she was asking us to make.
Thanks[/quote]
Don’t forget, there are triple leverages ETF’s out there as well. I do not mess with them, but you might want to check them out.
[quote]JEATON wrote:
Don’t forget, there are triple leverages ETF’s out there as well. I do not mess with them, but you might want to check them out.[/quote]
Triple… Now you’re talking my language.
"I will go no further, the point is made, caveat emptor, play with paper and you could get burned as it is a house on fire. Bonds are bombs, banks are broke and currencies are toilet paper. Remember, never in 1,000’s of years of history have fiat currency and credit financial systems endured, they have ALWAYS fallen under hands of the men that control them. Looking at the current crew does not lend confidence that this time history will be proved wrong.
In conclusion: PAPER IS POISON, PAPER IS POISON! Keep this in mind. This is not a liquidity crisis; it is a solvency crisis, both moral and fiscal. Bankruptcy looms and that means people do not honor their promises. Or they will do as Adam Smith outlined in the Wealth of Nations – they will use the soft default of the printing press as they have for hundreds of years. The “something for nothings” will drive us to this, locusts that will eat everything until there is nothing left."
Day 12
Markets basically moved sideways today, with Gold giving up about $8. Dollar was up as well.
I will tell everyone that from a charting perspective, I am in a bit of gray area for the moment. I could make an argument for another 150 or so DOW points to the upside, with similar gains in the S&P and NAS. The problem is that my gut tells me we could fall hard for a few days.
The unemployment numbers will be huge Friday. I don’t know what the actual numbers will be, but the last years revisions through March 09 will be terrible. We have been mislead. And, without any change to the methodology, I wonder what the numbers from April 09 till now will tell us. We won’t know till Feb 2011. Who wants to put money on the fact that we are looking more like 15% right now with good numbers.
Gold is my only question. From the shape of the pattern I could make an argument for another good sprint, short of anywhere around 1280. I don’t really think it gets there and don’t care. Its coming back down soon.
So, what am I going to do. I have already put half of my IRA in 200% leveraged short SDS. I will move the last half in over the next day a two if we get any signs of strength.
I will also be adding to my SPY put options as well. I am buying out to July expiration, so I have time.
Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner.
Day 13
Wow. Market opens down. Sovereign debt fears. Unemployment numbers.
Dollars up and Gold is down over $24. What am I going to say next?
Deflation. Deflation. Deflation.
We live in interesting times.
[quote]JEATON wrote:
Day 13
Wow. Market opens down. Sovereign debt fears. Unemployment numbers.
Dollars up and Gold is down over $24. What am I going to say next?
Deflation. Deflation. Deflation.
We live in interesting times. [/quote]
BTW, gold would have to go below 1080 for me to completely eliminate the near term upward potential that I spoke of above.
[quote]JEATON wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
Day 13
Wow. Market opens down. Sovereign debt fears. Unemployment numbers.
Dollars up and Gold is down over $24. What am I going to say next?
Deflation. Deflation. Deflation.
We live in interesting times. [/quote]
BTW, gold would have to go below 1080 for me to completely eliminate the near term upward potential that I spoke of above. [/quote]
And done.
$800 gold anyone?
[quote]JEATON wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
Day 13
Wow. Market opens down. Sovereign debt fears. Unemployment numbers.
Dollars up and Gold is down over $24. What am I going to say next?
Deflation. Deflation. Deflation.
We live in interesting times. [/quote]
BTW, gold would have to go below 1080 for me to completely eliminate the near term upward potential that I spoke of above. [/quote]
And done.
[/quote]
Haha
[quote]JEATON wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
[quote]JEATON wrote:
Day 13
Wow. Market opens down. Sovereign debt fears. Unemployment numbers.
Dollars up and Gold is down over $24. What am I going to say next?
Deflation. Deflation. Deflation.
We live in interesting times. [/quote]
BTW, gold would have to go below 1080 for me to completely eliminate the near term upward potential that I spoke of above. [/quote]
And done.
$800 gold anyone?[/quote]
Don’t stop now, I’m using that play money I spoke of to make some risky bets and its paying off. Any more suggestions? You’re helping a great deal.