Market Predictions. Ignorance on Display

[quote]JEATON wrote:

BTW, gold would have to go below 1080 for me to completely eliminate the near term upward potential that I spoke of above. [/quote]

And done.
$800 gold anyone?[/quote]

I hope it DOES go there – I’d be buying with both hands.

Gold…or Ben Bernanke (+ Barry, Nancy, Harry, John Mutha, and so forth).

Choose gold.

I want to say that I am not intelligent enough nor do I have the nerve for day trading. I buy for 5, 10, and 20 years horizons. What would be good to own 20 years hence? The only thing I can think of would be software stocks and gold. Health care will be destroyed with doctors being drafted and working for fixed pay. Biotech, maybe, though the criminals will be there to drain any profitable industry.

This is the dollar bubble forming, once our commercial real estate bubble pops the dollar bubble will end. Deflation can’t happen when you have the printing press on full speed. Zimbabwe, Wiemar republic, Argentina, America 1770’s(this isn’t our first time with paper money). Look at those countries to see what is going to happen here.

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:

BTW, gold would have to go below 1080 for me to completely eliminate the near term upward potential that I spoke of above. [/quote]

And done.
$800 gold anyone?[/quote]

I hope it DOES go there – I’d be buying with both hands.

Gold…or Ben Bernanke (+ Barry, Nancy, Harry, John Mutha, and so forth).

Choose gold.

I want to say that I am not intelligent enough nor do I have the nerve for day trading. I buy for 5, 10, and 20 years horizons. What would be good to own 20 years hence? The only thing I can think of would be software stocks and gold. Health care will be destroyed with doctors being drafted and working for fixed pay. Biotech, maybe, though the criminals will be there to drain any profitable industry.
[/quote]

Right this moment, cash, treasuries and any speculative money that you have in leveraged short ETF’s. I say speculative not because I don’t believe we are going much lower (I do), but that I believe that if we get into a real melt down that there is a very real chance that you could be “right” yet not be able to get paid. This could happen through bank failure, market computers being “overwhelmed” etc.

[quote]MidDistanceMac wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Day 13

Wow. Market opens down. Sovereign debt fears. Unemployment numbers.
Dollars up and Gold is down over $24. What am I going to say next?
Deflation. Deflation. Deflation.

We live in interesting times. [/quote]

BTW, gold would have to go below 1080 for me to completely eliminate the near term upward potential that I spoke of above. [/quote]

And done.
$800 gold anyone?[/quote]

Don’t stop now, I’m using that play money I spoke of to make some risky bets and its paying off. Any more suggestions? You’re helping a great deal.[/quote]

I’m not done by a long shot. Just saying Gold went past my point of no return (for a while).

Look at anything on this list with a down arrow beside it

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/leveraged-etfs.html

At the bottom are the triples.

[quote]John S. wrote:
This is the dollar bubble forming, once our commercial real estate bubble pops the dollar bubble will end. Deflation can’t happen when you have the printing press on full speed. Zimbabwe, Wiemar republic, Argentina, America 1770’s(this isn’t our first time with paper money). Look at those countries to see what is going to happen here.[/quote]

John,
I have never made money in the future.
I have never made money in the past.
I have only ever made money in the present.

I have said again and again that we will probably see inflation again. But it will be after deflation has run its course. With 95% of our money supply in credit, loans etc. we have an incredible amount of room for deflation before we have to worry about inflation again.
The printing presses are the last act of desperation. By that time you can have transitioned back to gold at a much lower price (if it is still legal to own) or other physical assets.

BTW, where was gold when I urged you not to restructure your student loans in order to buy as much as you could? 1200?

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:
This is the dollar bubble forming, once our commercial real estate bubble pops the dollar bubble will end. Deflation can’t happen when you have the printing press on full speed. Zimbabwe, Wiemar republic, Argentina, America 1770’s(this isn’t our first time with paper money). Look at those countries to see what is going to happen here.[/quote]

John,
I have never made money in the future.
I have never made money in the past.
I have only ever made money in the present.

I have said again and again that we will probably see inflation again. But it will be after deflation has run its course. With 95% of our money supply in credit, loans etc. we have an incredible amount of room for deflation before we have to worry about inflation again.
The printing presses are the last act of desperation. By that time you can have transitioned back to gold at a much lower price (if it is still legal to own) or other physical assets.

BTW, where was gold when I urged you not to restructure your student loans in order to buy as much as you could? 1200?[/quote]

Deflation will happen because the dollar bubble is forming, it won’t last very long. What is happening here is what happened in late 08 early 09. Golds decline will be in a tighter range then before, but its growth will be greater then what happened last year. I believe I said before on this forum that I expect the dollar to reach 85 on the dollar index before it collapses.(I could have said this on another board).

If someone bought gold a 1200 they still got a good deal in the long run. Sure if they feel like gambling they can get into the dollar for a bit, but when it crashes it is going to crash hard and fast. I like safe bets, which means I don’t have the ability make as much money as you possible can, but my money is a lot safer.

Lucky 13
Had a great day today. I’m going to run some errands and play with the kiddies.
I’ll look at things tonight and share any thoughts I have.

Day 13 continuation

I got wrapped up in my internet feud with Ryan P and forgot to finish up last night.
Dow down 268 to 10,002
S&P 500 down 34 to 1063
Nasdaq down 65 to 2125
Gold was down around $48
Oil down 5%
DXY up

Markets were good to me yesterday. I was up approx 40%
The big question was, how would the unemployment report read in the morning. I thought of this all day. The revision numbers were being rumored at around 840,000 and this played into the big down day.

By the end of the day, I decided that the number, at leas as presented, would not be as bad as feared.
Truthfully, I no longer believe any of the numbers that come out of Washington, but knowing they will manipulate them is a factor that must be taken into account.

At the very end of the day I sold all of my postions. I closed my SPY puts and my SDS double inverse.
I worrried all night if I had done the right thing, but in the end you never go broke by taking a profit.

There is a saying, “Pigs get fat and hogs go to slaughter.”
George Sorros has a saying, “Pigs get the scraps, and Hogs get fabulously wealth.” Translated, If you are on the right side of a trade, keep adding to it.

My hope is that the numbers will surprise good and I will be able to move back in with a bigger position and a better price today.

We will see.

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Day 13 continuation

I got wrapped up in my internet feud with Ryan P and forgot to finish up last night.
Dow down 268 to 10,002
S&P 500 down 34 to 1063
Nasdaq down 65 to 2125
Gold was down around $48
Oil down 5%
DXY up

Markets were good to me yesterday. I was up approx 40%
The big question was, how would the unemployment report read in the morning. I thought of this all day. The revision numbers were being rumored at around 840,000 and this played into the big down day.

By the end of the day, I decided that the number, at leas as presented, would not be as bad as feared.
Truthfully, I no longer believe any of the numbers that come out of Washington, but knowing they will manipulate them is a factor that must be taken into account.

At the very end of the day I sold all of my postions. I closed my SPY puts and my SDS double inverse.
I worrried all night if I had done the right thing, but in the end you never go broke by taking a profit.

There is a saying, “Pigs get fat and hogs go to slaughter.”
George Sorros has a saying, “Pigs get the scraps, and Hogs get fabulously wealth.” Translated, If you are on the right side of a trade, keep adding to it.

My hope is that the numbers will surprise good and I will be able to move back in with a bigger position and a better price today.

We will see.
[/quote]

I hope you were out of those ETFs by 3pm.

^^^
Yes, I was, but it was a net zero day either way. I have been looking at the charts for a bit. I now wish I had reloaded a third of my position at the close. From the low of the day to the close, the market did a near perfect Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% of the last down leg. The 1073 mark in the S&P also looks really good as an entry point an it is near a 50% retracement. I would look to add the second “third” at this point.

To clarify, I went into the day with no positions, and due to some unexpected events I never got an opportunity to do anything. My hope is that we get a pop at the open on Monday. If so, I will definitely start building a short position again. I see virtually no chance this bounce can surpass 1105 again anytime in the near future (or not so near future).

My current plan is to use any near term strength to build a relatively large short. The set up I am seeing, short of a rebound past 1073, is as close to a “bet the farm” scenario as I ever come.

Some important things to note. I believe in the coming months we will experience a lot of steady downward pressure. This will, however, be punctuated with short, violent, retracements. I will be using any such rebounds as opportunity to further short. I will be using trailing stops on the way down. Some of the types of things that will trigger these rebounds are incidents like the bailing out of some beleaguered sovereign debt, like Greece. In the end, it won’t matter.

But as usual, I am not a professional and very well might be full of shit. Anything I say should be looked upon with extreme skepticism.

Hey Jeaton,

First of all congratulations, I just caught up on this thread and you have been spot on with your analysis. I have been caught long during this correction (or end of bull market depending on your perspective) but I intend to stay long.

It’s interesting that I agree with a lot of your logic and reasoning for deflation but I feel that right now we are still in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. Therefore, I’m voting with my money, that we will have inflation then deflation. I think we are following the same pattern of 2003-2008, except this time the climb up will be much quicker and steeper and then the crash will make the 2008 crash look like a joke.

In 2003, the devaluation of the dollar by Greenspan printing hundreds of billions to soften the blow from the tech crash created the energy and housing bubble and credit bubble. I think that Bernanke printing trillions of dollars is going to create a bubble in precious metals. So, I am using this decline to load up on silver miners.

I think the markets could go down 5-10% more from here, but this is just an intermediate term correction within a 2-4 year cyclical bull market within a 20 year secular bear market that began in 2000.

JEATSON, deflation is coming and it is here and it would be ravaging the global economy were it not for Bernanke printing trillions to prop up the banks and markets. And I agree that debt levels are unsustainable but these are also the conditions for explosive bull moves. Since, monetary policy will remain loose for an extended period of time.

Just as Greenspan created the housing bubble, Bernanke is creating the gold bubble. Gold will be 1600-2000 in January 2011.

[quote]whatifiwascool wrote:
Hey Jeaton,

First of all congratulations, I just caught up on this thread and you have been spot on with your analysis. I have been caught long during this correction (or end of bull market depending on your perspective) but I intend to stay long.[/quote]

Thank you. As the saying goes, sometimes its better to be lucky. My view is that that the move since last March is simply a correction in an overall bear market.

[quote]
It’s interesting that I agree with a lot of your logic and reasoning for deflation but I feel that right now we are still in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market. Therefore, I’m voting with my money, that we will have inflation then deflation. I think we are following the same pattern of 2003-2008, except this time the climb up will be much quicker and steeper and then the crash will make the 2008 crash look like a joke. [/quote]

I believe that deflation is back, after a 12 month reprieve, thanks to Hank, Ben and Tim. But yes, I believe that the resumption of the bear, starting withe the beginning of this thread is definitely going to make '07 '08 look mild.

[quote]
In 2003, the devaluation of the dollar by Greenspan printing hundreds of billions to soften the blow from the tech crash created the energy and housing bubble and credit bubble. I think that Bernanke printing trillions of dollars is going to create a bubble in precious metals. So, I am using this decline to load up on silver miners. [/quote]

This is where I come to confusion/clarification with a lot of people. Greenie did not pring hundreds of billions of dollars, period. What he did do is ease monetary policy and rates, allowing the fractional banking system to inflate the money supply by a huge amount. Although similar, there is a difference. This credit and loans is in the process of deflating (imploding) as we speak, with a long ways to go till bottom. The commercial market has barley started, and the Munis are going to be awful. Personally, I would not touch Gold or Silver here. There will be a time when I am a huge buyer, but it will be over a year away. As I have said, I think we see $800 gold before we see $1200 gold again.

[quote]
I think the markets could go down 5-10% more from here, but this is just an intermediate term correction within a 2-4 year cyclical bull market within a 20 year secular bear market that began in 2000.

JEATSON, deflation is coming and it is here and it would be ravaging the global economy were it not for Bernanke printing trillions to prop up the banks and markets. And I agree that debt levels are unsustainable but these are also the conditions for explosive bull moves. Since, monetary policy will remain loose for an extended period of time.

Just as Greenspan created the housing bubble, Bernanke is creating the gold bubble. Gold will be 1600-2000 in January 2011.[/quote]

Time will tell. I have been uncommonly lucky of late. I hope to continue, but I fully expect to stumble a few times on the way. Just remember the distinction of printing money and creating money through fractional reserve lending. It may sound like a trivial difference. It is not. I will say that Gold looks oversold right now, but I think it has a lot father to go before it is over. In the end, I just don’t trade gold. I use it as one of my variable in my predictions, however.

Day 14

Another good day to be me. I watched for a pop at the open. Did not get it right away, but did move slowly back up to slightly higher highs for the day in all indexes. The buying seemed to lack conviction, so I began the building the first half of by short position at what turned out to be the highs of the day.

I put approx 40% of my IRA back in SDS today, and another 20% in QID (Double inverse short on the NASDAQ 100).
I built about 40% of my ultimate short position in my regular trading account in put options on the SPY. I bought July’s, so I have time to let it run if I want. I am open for the possibility of one more small up leg before what I predict to be a strong move lower. We may not get it, so I was happy to maybe be a little early to the party today rather than miss it. I hope to get a chance to put the remainder of my capital to work tomorrow.

I still had a 5% gain in my regular account, and a decent little profit in my IRA for the little down move we had at the end of the day.

Till tomorrow…;


Head And Shoulders Top:

A classic top for chartists is a head-and-shoulders. For a better pic and a thorough explanation, visit:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17097.html

I am watching the S&P very closely. The 1081 mark is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and I am uncomfortable with it going beyond this. The action seems to be coming in big spikes, so it could be some big institutional plays. Time will tell.

Day 15
This one was less fun than most of the others the last few weeks.
A couple of days ago I talked about the short term violent moves up in the market. I specifically mentioned Greece in my example. Well today the Germans, being the strongest European economy, publicly began spearheading an effort to bail Greece out. The markets celebrated and we had a big up day, over 200 pts in the DOW at one point. So the question is, am I still a bear or have I turned bull.

I am still a bear. I am still short all the positions I mentioned yesterday. I did not add to my positions as planned, because I never got to a point where I felt I had a good handle on how far up we could go in this correction. I am still using 1105 in the S&P as my line in the sand. I do not think we will get there.

I had mentioned that I thought Gold was over extended and the dollar was due a correction. Today helped ease the condition of both.

Short version, I am standing pat, and looking for evidence to add to my short position.

Day 16
Another uneventful day. Markets generally have two ways to work off an overbought or oversold condition. They either bounce hard in the opposite direction, or they churn sideways. It appears that we have mostly churned sideways for a few days.

Tomorrow will be important to my near term outlook. By the charts, we should begin to sell off again tomorrow. The action of the last few days has been “choppy” and overlapping. This generally correlates with a counter trend move, and the overall trend of late has been down. If the market does bounce above yesterdays highs, I will step aside for the moment and evaluate the situation.

As it stands, I am still short in all my positions. If we start to break down tomorrow, I will quickly begin adding to my shorts .

BTW, the one market chart that appears the least clear to me at the moment is Gold. It has had a pretty serious correction over the last two months, and it would not be unexpected if it were to rebound a little more before continuing on down. I do not really expect it to, but in the end, I do not care. I do not trade in gold, so I have no skin in that game. I mention it only in case someone were to be foolish enough to to take my opinion as anything other than just that (an opinion).

I have had several people to PM me over the last two weeks with questions and comments. I welcome any questions and will continue to answer as well as I can. I do, however, feel it necessary to repeat that I AM NOT AN EXPERT OR PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISER by any stretch of the imagination. This is just for “shits and giggles” for me. Learn with me or through me by all means. Just do not take anything I say as anything more than an opinion.

Anyway, tomorrow should be fun.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,585450,00.html

The number of U.S. households facing foreclosure in January increased 15 percent from the same month last year, and a surge in cash-strapped homeowners who’ve fallen behind on mortgages could be on the way.

More than 315,000 households received a foreclosure-related notice in January, RealtyTrac Inc. reported Thursday. That number is down nearly 10 percent from 349,000 in December, which saw the third highest total since the company began tracking foreclosure data in 2005.

In January, one in 409 homes were sent a filing, which includes default notices, scheduled foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions. Banks repossessed more than 87,000 homes last month, down 5 percent from December but still up 31 percent from January 2009.

January marked the 11th straight month with more than 300,000 properties receiving a foreclosure filing. The numbers could stay above that level as unemployed homeowners who have tried to keep up with their mortgages finally start missing monthly payments.

Mortgage financier Fannie Mae reported in late January that the rate of borrowers who have a conventional loan on a house and are seriously delinquent was 5.29 percent in November, more than doubling the rate of 2.13 percent in November 2008. Borrowers are considered seriously delinquent if they are past due by three months or more, or are in foreclosure.

“There’s a lot of foreclosures in the pipeline, and the number is going to continue to get bigger,” said Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight.

Last month’s foreclosure activity followed a pattern similar to that of a year ago, when a double-digit percentage increase in December was followed by a 10 percent drop in January.

The dip in January’s numbers may be due to processing delays by lenders during the end-of-year holidays, said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, which is based in Irvine, Calif.

“I don’t think it’s an early sign of the coming of the end of the foreclosure crisis,” Sharga said.

A record 2.8 million households were threatened with foreclosure last year, and the numbers are expected to rise to between 3 and 3.5 million homes this year, RealtyTrac said.

Slowing the foreclosure rate is a key step in the recovery of the real estate market and the overall economy. The foreclosure crisis forced the federal government and several states to come up with plans to prevent or delay the process to help delinquent borrowers.

Foreclosed homes are usually sold at steep discounts, so they often lower the value of surrounding properties. Cities lose property tax dollars from foreclosure homes that sit empty and from declining home values, straining local economies. Home prices have stabilized in some cities, but are still down 30 percent nationally from mid-2006.

Economic issues, such as unemployment or reduced income, are expected to be the main catalysts for foreclosures this year. Initially, subprime mortgages were mostly the culprit, but homeowners with good credit who took out conventional, fixed-rate loans are the fastest growing group of foreclosures.

Among states, Nevada posted the nation’s highest foreclosure rate, followed by Arizona, California, Florida and Utah. Rounding out the top 10 were Idaho, Michigan, Illinois, Oregon and Georgia.

The metro area with the highest foreclosure rate in January was Las Vegas, with one in every 82 homes receiving a foreclosure filing. It was followed by Phoenix and the California cities of Modesto, Stockton, and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario.

This is it. this and the commercial real estate bubble in one year. We are about to see a buying deal for metals Jeaton. Deflation will infact come first, then followed by massive inflation.

Good post, John. What most people don’t realize is the leverage involved in banking.

Banks are allowed to loan out roughly 10 times their capital. So if just 10% of their loans go bad, that bank has ZERO capital. It is worthless, except for the value of the remaining loans. Banks made huge fortunes through such leverage but now the machine is going in reverse.

To fill this hole, the Feds are printing money like crazy. If they succeed we get inflation of enormous proportion. If they fail we get deflation as the leverage pu;;s everyone down.

In the future, when only gold is money, fractional reserve banking should be firmly outlawed.

[quote]Headhunter wrote:
Good post, John. What most people don’t realize is the leverage involved in banking.

Banks are allowed to loan out roughly 10 times their capital. So if just 10% of their loans go bad, that bank has ZERO capital. It is worthless, except for the value of the remaining loans. Banks made huge fortunes through such leverage but now the machine is going in reverse.

To fill this hole, the Feds are printing money like crazy. If they succeed we get inflation of enormous proportion. If they fail we get deflation as the leverage pu;;s everyone down.

In the future, when only gold is money, fractional reserve banking should be firmly outlawed. [/quote]

It is often even worse than this. Ever notice any of your accounts that get “swept” every afternoon into some sort of money market account. This is supposedly so that you can gain an minuscule bit of extra interest. It is complete horseshit. Accounts are tallied late at night, and the sums are used to to determine reserve requirements. Theses “swept” funds are not in the accounts at this time, and are therefore not counted and do not have reserves held against them.

BTW, as I have said before, they are not “printing” money like crazy. The money creation you are talking of is done through fractional reserve lending. It represents over 95% of our money supply and is made up of credit, loans and other liquid debt instruments. The “money” that backs it is in the form of mortgages, IOU’s and other promises to pay. That is why I get on the soap box and yell deflation. When the second wave of mortgage defaults collides and merges with the commercial market defaults, and then the muni failures come barreling down behind them, that is when it really implodes and we get huge deflation. Dollars will be scarce and precious. During the initial stages, I believe virtually all commodities will deflate in price as well as every thing will be competing for scarce dollars. That is the basis for my Gold going to at least $800 belief.

At the bottom, it will be another story. Inflation is likely and that will be the time to get back into gold and other assets.