Market Predictions. Ignorance on Display

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
21

Day 6
The DOW, S&P and NAS all attempted to rally today. It was a weak attempt in my opinion. Markets sold off into the close.
It was a big afternoon for earnings announcements. AAPL, TXN, HAL, etc. Apple whip lashed the market with a change in accounting rules. Looks like everyone is still trying to sort it our.

I maintained my short on the market. It still looks like it needs one more move down from a charting perspective.

Not really a lot to report. Things will shake out one way or another tomorrow.

22

In the off chance that someone is foolish enough to be following my actions with their money,

We got the new low at the open this morning, but did not look to have a lot of follow through conviction.

Therefore, I closed my position.

I am looking for a day or two of rebound. If things change I will chime in.

23

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

Goat fucked. We are goat fucked.
[/quote]

Dude. Don’t be such a pussy. All we need is a consumer confidence rating of 90 and we are out of the woods. We’re more than half way there. If everyone would just start convincing their neighbors and friends that all is well, we can forget the rest of this nonsense.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100126/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

24

Day 6
Hared day to call. The market got the new low I was looking for at the opening, but began to rally from there. I quickly closed my short position. I looked brilliant, until the market reversed in the afternoon.

In the end, you will never go broke taking a profit. My position ended up making over 50% in six days, so who am I to complain.

I will look at the charts tonight and see if anything jumps out. Short term (days), I still expect a retracement. Overall, I am looking to reestablish a short position from a higher level.

Busy end of the week. State of the Union address, MSFT earning, employment numbers and GDP numbers. Could be volatile.

25

[quote]dhickey wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

Goat fucked. We are goat fucked.
[/quote]

Dude. Don’t be such a pussy. All we need is a consumer confidence rating of 90 and we are out of the woods. We’re more than half way there. If everyone would just start convincing their neighbors and friends that all is well, we can forget the rest of this nonsense.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100126/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy[/quote]

Maybe, but using history as an example, one can’t help but wander.

Just interchange names from the 1930 with those of today, and depression era headlines look eerily like those of today.

26

Day 7
Lets take an inventory. I called for a top in the DOW, S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Jan. 15. With the exception of the S&P, with managed to accrue approx. 1 more point the next day, everything has fallen perfectly into place.

Also, Gold has continued to fall, along with silver.
The dollar, tracked using the DXY, has continued to rise.
Oil has dropped from approx $80 to around $73.

The indexes made the “one more low” I was looking for and yesterday morning and I closed my short position in my regular account at that time. I left my 200% S&P short on in my IRA. Why? Because I think we have much lower to go, and any short term surprises are more likely to be down than up.

I am looking for a little upside movement to alleviate the short term over sold condition in the market. So far, any upward movement has been anemic on low volume. I will be looking for opportunities to scale back in over the next few days. My first point will be be 1115 in the S&P, then 1123. If we get a little momentum, I will watch the chart gap at around 1130. I will be looking to make a pretty substantial “bet” on this next move.

Something to note. Today the Fed announced it will be keeping short term rate the same (virtually 0%) and the dollar rallies all day and gold sell off.

How does this make sense? You guessed it, Deflation!

BTW, interesting grillings on capital hill today. Geithner and Paulson took a few in the teeth. The Goldman revelations were particularly damaging in my opinion. Too bad nothing substance will come out of it.

27

Just sold my SDS (200% short S&P 500) position. More gut instinct than anything. We look due for a near term bounce. I will be watching closely for an opportunity to get back in at a higher point.

28

Day 8

DOW, NAS and S&P all had big days down. Gold and oil stayed flat, and The DXY was up strong.

Everything is still going as planned. My only concern is that even though I have been negative towards the markets, I may not have been negative enough. I cashed out of all of my positions today, thinking we were about due for a little retracement. Now I am wondering if this was a good idea. If I had it to do over, I would have just began buying leaps on the S&P 500 (puts) on the fifteenth of the month and simply used any rebounds we did have to average further in. Once the ball starts rolling down hill, the VIX starts working against you in that it makes the option premiums ever higher. Time will tell.

29

It is said that God looks after fools and drunks. I don’t drink, so I guess I know which one I am.

I kept studying the charts last night, and they just did not look “finished” to me. When the GDP numbers came out this morning, I watched the action. The market tried to rally, but lacked conviction. I went short again about as close to the top as you can hope for. Today it worked out for me.

In the end, my S&P 500 short using put options on the SPY was up 21.5% for the day. Monday will be interesting. I think it possible that we get a sell off at the open, then try to rally from there.

I will be reviewing later in the afternoon and will post if I notice anything of significance.

30

[quote]JEATON wrote:
It is said that God looks after fools and drunks. I don’t drink, so I guess I know which one I am.

I kept studying the charts last night, and they just did not look “finished” to me. When the GDP numbers came out this morning, I watched the action. The market tried to rally, but lacked conviction. I went short again about as close to the top as you can hope for. Today it worked out for me.

In the end, my S&P 500 short using put options on the SPY was up 21.5% for the day. Monday will be interesting. I think it possible that we get a sell off at the open, then try to rally from there.

I will be reviewing later in the afternoon and will post if I notice anything of significance. [/quote]

I admire your bravery in the puts. I’m just sitting on a lot of cash.

Interest rates have nowhere to go but up. When that happens, those instruments will compete with stocks. That’s bad for stocks.

The dollar has fallen more than 80% since 1971. That means that gold is $200 in 1971 dollars. I’m sitting tight.

31

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:
It is said that God looks after fools and drunks. I don’t drink, so I guess I know which one I am.

I kept studying the charts last night, and they just did not look “finished” to me. When the GDP numbers came out this morning, I watched the action. The market tried to rally, but lacked conviction. I went short again about as close to the top as you can hope for. Today it worked out for me.

In the end, my S&P 500 short using put options on the SPY was up 21.5% for the day. Monday will be interesting. I think it possible that we get a sell off at the open, then try to rally from there.

I will be reviewing later in the afternoon and will post if I notice anything of significance. [/quote]

I admire your bravery in the puts. I’m just sitting on a lot of cash.

Interest rates have nowhere to go but up. When that happens, those instruments will compete with stocks. That’s bad for stocks.

The dollar has fallen more than 80% since 1971. That means that gold is $200 in 1971 dollars. I’m sitting tight.

[/quote]

There is absolutely nothing wrong with cash at this time. Actually, it is the smartest place to be. My only question is, where is this cash. If it is in a bank, then I feel it necessary to tell you that you do not have cash. You have made a loan to that bank and simply have an IOU from them.

How good is their IOU?

As I have mentioned before, go to thestreet.com and check the rating of your bank. If it is not at least A-, move your money. If you live in Ohio, the top two banks in the state are as follows:

OHIO ST HENRY BANK SAINT HENRY OH A+ 196.1
OHIO WORLD FINANCIAL NETWORK NA COLUMBUS OH A 1,713.4

32

I’m still watching the Swedish krona vs. the dollar.
The dollar has been rallying, we’re going into February with 1 dollar being worth 7.413 kronor.
A few weeks ago you could get a dollar for 7 flat.

I know I’m boring y’all!

33

[quote]archiewhittaker wrote:
I’m still watching the Swedish krona vs. the dollar.
The dollar has been rallying, we’re going into February with 1 dollar being worth 7.413 kronor.
A few weeks ago you could get a dollar for 7 flat.

I know I’m boring y’all![/quote]

Not boring. I just don’t know enough on the topic to give you any credible advice. Is it a trust fund or similar that you have? Are you looking to re-allocate assets? Remember, currency trends tend to be fairly long in scope. It might be due for some consolidation, but I think the dollar has a long ways to go.

34

Day 10

Friday I had noted that I thought we could get a sell off at the open and then rally from there. I was watching closely and had stops in place to protect the profit I had. We opened up and triggered my sale orders, leaving me with approx a 10% gain rather than the 21% I had on Friday. That is fine. I’ll take it. A small gain is better than any loss.

I had noted the last few days that we were oversold and in need of some type of relief rally. Today we got a bit of it. I think there is more to be had, but the volume is relatively mute. I am looking to scale back in short starting around 1105 in the S&P 500. This next leg down I am looking to short the NASDAQ 100 as well, using put options on the QID (200% short ETF).

Gold had a good day. It was overdue a relief rally. I am considering building a short position in it beginning with $1120. If I do, I will use puts on the QLD.

Stocks, gold and oil were all up for the day, which is right in line with my game plan. The DXY (dollar index) was a little stronger than I thought is might be. We’ll see what it does tomorrow.

35

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Day 10

Friday I had noted that I thought we could get a sell off at the open and then rally from there. I was watching closely and had stops in place to protect the profit I had. We opened up and triggered my sale orders, leaving me with approx a 10% gain rather than the 21% I had on Friday. That is fine. I’ll take it. A small gain is better than any loss.

I had noted the last few days that we were oversold and in need of some type of relief rally. Today we got a bit of it. I think there is more to be had, but the volume is relatively mute. I am looking to scale back in short starting around 1105 in the S&P 500. This next leg down I am looking to short the NASDAQ 100 as well, using put options on the QID (200% short ETF).

Gold had a good day. It was overdue a relief rally. I am considering building a short position in it beginning with $1120. If I do, I will use puts on the QLD.

Stocks, gold and oil were all up for the day, which is right in line with my game plan. The DXY (dollar index) was a little stronger than I thought is might be. We’ll see what it does tomorrow.

[/quote]

If you look at a chart of Homestake Mining from the 1930’s, you’ll see that it soared while the market was tanking. Its my belief that gold is in a true bull market. Five years from now, Gold will be a lot higher than the Dow.

There is a worldwide phenomenon happening – everyone is wondering if ANY fiat money, even the Swiss Franc, is a meaningful store of value. Add in that the Chinese only keep 2% of their reserves in gold and this spells one helluva floor under the price. Someday, nations may insist on gold when settling international accounts.

To avoid having the criminals simply confiscating your gold, buy the stocks. More bang for the buck anyway.

36

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]JEATON wrote:
All right…
I have been watching the markets very closely for months now. For those that don’t know my methods, I use a combination of charting, cycles, fundamentals along with other peripheral inputs. I’m not a professional by any means. I have turned $15K into $100K in less than 6 months. I have also lost $100k in a year. So take anything I say with a grain of salt.
I thought it would be fun to make some predictions and update them on a daily basis.

My biggest prediction, I think we have seen the highs for the year in the DOW, S&P and Nasdaq. My charting allows for another 100 points in the Dow (actually up to approx. 10800) so the S&P and Nas have comparable wiggle room. I don’t think we’ll need it though.

The top for Gold is in. The $1227 high will not be seen again for the rest of the year. $1000 will be the next point, and ultimately we will see $700 before any long term bottom is seen.

The 74.21 level in the DXY is the low. We won’t see it again anytime in the next year (and then some). The dollar will progressively strengthen throughout the year.

The word that you will start to hear more and more over the coming year is Deflation. Bank failures will turn up over the coming year. Even with the FDIC, check the strength of your bank. Go to thestreet.com to do this. See how well capitalized they are, and where they have invested your money. How likely are they to be able to liquidate should they need. You will be surprised. The strongest banks you are likely to find will be smaller banks in rural areas. If your bank is weak (and it probably is) move your money to one of the top two banks in your state. Truthfully, I would say keep as little as you can in a checking account to manage bills. If possible, keep a decent amount within safe reach. I nice big, heavy gun safe is a good idea.

If you have the heart for it, short the S&P by way of the SPY (spiders). Bigger balls, use the SDS (200% inverse). Really, really big balls, use options on each of these. I am using the SDS in my IRA. I will be trading options on the SPY and SDS in my regular account.

I am aware that I am setting myself up for abuse. Either way, I think it will be fun.

Progress so far…
I started shorting the S&P on Monday using march 113 puts. Tues afternoon the chart looked wrong so I got out at a 10% return. I re-entered this position yesterday. Working well so far.
[/quote]

Goat fucked. We are goat fucked.
[/quote]

HH explain this graph for me a little bit…
Is this saying total debt accumulated up to 20XX as compared to GDP at the end of 20XX.
I always thought our debt was nearing 100% of GDP?

37

[quote]MidDistanceMac wrote:

HH explain this graph for me a little bit…
Is this saying total debt accumulated up to 20XX as compared to GDP at the end of 20XX.
I always thought our debt was nearing 100% of GDP?[/quote]

I’m not HH, but I’ll take an at bat. You are correct in that our National debt, ie government debt, is approaching 100% of GDP. The problem is that 80% of our economy is made up of the private sector. To arrive at a real and meaningful figure for the national debt, you have to factor in not only government debt, but all private credit market debt.

Using Q3 2009 GDP numbers and total national and private debt numbers, the total US debt as a percentage of GDP is right at 370%.

Hope that helps.

38

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]archiewhittaker wrote:
I’m still watching the Swedish krona vs. the dollar.
The dollar has been rallying, we’re going into February with 1 dollar being worth 7.413 kronor.
A few weeks ago you could get a dollar for 7 flat.

I know I’m boring y’all![/quote]

Not boring. I just don’t know enough on the topic to give you any credible advice. Is it a trust fund or similar that you have? Are you looking to re-allocate assets? Remember, currency trends tend to be fairly long in scope. It might be due for some consolidation, but I think the dollar has a long ways to go. [/quote]

Well, the dollar’s ups&downs are confusing to me, since it seems to thrive off of negative corporate news, and any down-phase is quickly rebounded. On a day where the S&P 500 grows over 1%, dollar climbs (like today). The S&P is not a tool for predicting currency movements, I know, but I’m trying to give examples. The dollar seems more linked to international events (like China’s credit-tightening) than internal affairs, like the U.S. stockmarket. Eventually, the bailouts should be the beginning of a paradigm shift in our whole
economy that changes every country, since the dollar is king. Change we can believe in?

I don’t have a trust fund, just a small amount from Sweden every quarter, so that I can uphold my viking-lifestyle and steal your American women.

39

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

To avoid having the criminals simply confiscating your gold, buy the stocks. More bang for the buck anyway.

[/quote]

It’s more likely your gold company will get confiscated than your gold. If your worried about this type of thing you should be very selective about what countries your gold companies are in.

40

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

To avoid having the criminals simply confiscating your gold, buy the stocks. More bang for the buck anyway.

[/quote]

It’s more likely your gold company will get confiscated than your gold. If your worried about this type of thing you should be very selective about what countries your gold companies are in.[/quote]

Good point. Agnico-Eagle is in Canada though, which is where I have a lot. I don’t think Canada would do as you describe. But yeah, Aussie and north-of-the-Rio-Grande is probably wise.