Div yield 1.8%. PE of 20.
Adding in terrorism and bankrupt countries across the globe.
The Dow/Gold ratio will be 1:1 before too long.
[quote]JoeGood wrote:
[quote]metamorphic wrote:
[quote]JoeGood wrote:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36999239
Even the thought that this might be true has me laughing my head off.[/quote]
It is a funny thought. Could this really be the first time this mistake has been made? Uh…doubt it. Maybe the first time this afternoon.
People are ready to dump equities because of sovereign debt panic.[/quote]
Sure but it might be the first time this has happen when Greeze, Portugal and Spain are either close to or rumored to be close to defaulting on their debt. Together thats a pretty ugly senario.[/quote]
Yeah that makes more sense. Just read a little more about it. Sounds like it really was the result of automated responses to an entry mistake.
Had to have been compounded by lots of anxiety.
[quote]metamorphic wrote:
[quote]JoeGood wrote:
[quote]metamorphic wrote:
[quote]JoeGood wrote:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36999239
Even the thought that this might be true has me laughing my head off.[/quote]
It is a funny thought. Could this really be the first time this mistake has been made? Uh…doubt it. Maybe the first time this afternoon.
People are ready to dump equities because of sovereign debt panic.[/quote]
Sure but it might be the first time this has happen when Greeze, Portugal and Spain are either close to or rumored to be close to defaulting on their debt. Together thats a pretty ugly senario.[/quote]
Yeah that makes more sense. Just read a little more about it. Sounds like it really was the result of automated responses to an entry mistake.
Had to have been compounded by lots of anxiety.
[/quote]
Back in 87, I think, the market fell 500 points, which was stunning then, because of all sorts of options expired at the same time.
The Fed stopped the Crash.
“The sovereign debt crisis shock waves emanating out of Greece triggered a stock market Free fall crash today as the Dow sliced through support after support to all the way below Dow 10k, hitting a low of 9,872 before the Fed as part of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) stepped in to halt the panic selling and triggering an equally phenomenal a 700 point reversal less than half an hour from today’s close.”
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The Fed stopped the Crash.
“The sovereign debt crisis shock waves emanating out of Greece triggered a stock market Free fall crash today as the Dow sliced through support after support to all the way below Dow 10k, hitting a low of 9,872 before the Fed as part of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) stepped in to halt the panic selling and triggering an equally phenomenal a 700 point reversal less than half an hour from today’s close.”
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19250.html[/quote]
I believe this is more likely then a human erorr, if it was just an error wouldn’t they have released something saying it was an error quicker/and themselves release it.
Sounds much more like fed intervention.
Dollar rising at the same time (not volume) as gold. This is weird - I’m hoping for a drop in the dollar.
[quote]archiewhittaker wrote:
Dollar rising at the same time (not volume) as gold. This is weird - I’m hoping for a drop in the dollar.[/quote]
The euro is crashing, the dollar will keep rising till we are on the chopping block.
[quote]dmaddox wrote:
Dow down 998 points. Back up to only down 310 now.
Greece is in for a world of hurt if they do not get the money from Germany. The money may only stave off the real hurt till later.[/quote]
I said in a post or two ago that the markets would have a correction then resume a run up to 1400 (S&P). That’s out the window now.
I’ve observed over the past ten years or so that when the market makes a huge one day drop and recovers quickly, it’s basically foretelling where it’s going. In other words it drops fast and recovers. It then consolidates for a few days before dropping back down to where it dipped before. It then consolidates for a few more days or even a week or two before dropping again. In my opinion the markets are in for a world of hurt in 2010.
That’s what I’ve observed. I’m afraid this time there might not be much of a consolidation. I work with 5 guys who are active investors/traders/market watchers. I know that three of them changed their 401k allocation to 100% money market. Two of them got their instructions in before the close and one after the close. (I don’t know what the other two did)
If this is reflective of what others across the country have done, it means that tomorrow and the next day fund managers are going to be very busy SELLING stocks to meet the withdrawal demands. I hope I’m wrong about this - even though I have a few hundred grand sitting on the sidelines just waiting for some nice, dirt cheap prices.
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
The Fed stopped the Crash.
“The sovereign debt crisis shock waves emanating out of Greece triggered a stock market Free fall crash today as the Dow sliced through support after support to all the way below Dow 10k, hitting a low of 9,872 before the Fed as part of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) stepped in to halt the panic selling and triggering an equally phenomenal a 700 point reversal less than half an hour from today’s close.”
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19250.html[/quote]
This backed up by any source of information that isn’t written for raving nutbags?
[quote]on edge wrote:
[quote]dmaddox wrote:
Dow down 998 points. Back up to only down 310 now.
Greece is in for a world of hurt if they do not get the money from Germany. The money may only stave off the real hurt till later.[/quote]
I said in a post or two ago that the markets would have a correction then resume a run up to 1400 (S&P). That’s out the window now.
I’ve observed over the past ten years or so that when the market makes a huge one day drop and recovers quickly, it’s basically foretelling where it’s going. In other words it drops fast and recovers. It then consolidates for a few days before dropping back down to where it dipped before. It then consolidates for a few more days or even a week or two before dropping again. In my opinion the markets are in for a world of hurt in 2010.
That’s what I’ve observed. I’m afraid this time there might not be much of a consolidation. I work with 5 guys who are active investors/traders/market watchers. I know that three of them changed their 401k allocation to 100% money market. Two of them got their instructions in before the close and one after the close. (I don’t know what the other two did)
If this is reflective of what others across the country have done, it means that tomorrow and the next day fund managers are going to be very busy SELLING stocks to meet the withdrawal demands. I hope I’m wrong about this - even though I have a few hundred grand sitting on the sidelines just waiting for some nice, dirt cheap prices.[/quote]
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 10-20% drop over the year. Of course thats for the over all market, which I don’t trade. I trade individual stocks so I don’t really care which way the market goes. The only real lesson leaned today should be a lesson you already know.
If you are long, have downside protection. If you are short, have upside protection.
This might have started as a fat finger trade, but there are checks in place to prevent this. I have tried to buy or sell 1000 trillion in just about every currency on buggy trading platform at a major bank while working on a desk. they cancel the order. if you are a big enough client, they call. something big enough to make this happen wouldnt go unchecked.
The real heart of todays shit (besides the fact that the market has been manipulated up with no real fundamental improvement on market moving issues for the past 14 months with the feds unlimited balance sheet and market making artifice) is high frequency market making. The people supposed to provide liquidity werent there when it mattered (duh) to put a bid in, and instead were front running limit offers, pushing sellers prices down or into market orders. Momentum chasing quant algorithms then sold into zero liquidity and the shit hit the fan.
Next we probably get a pop, then the few retail investors who caught the rally (they were mostly out) will dump 401ks, etc, and the margin calls will begin.
Now we get to see if the Fed has the balls to push us from Japan to Weimar.
Im totally talking my book, because ive been in cash and long dated put options and super out of the money calls since sp500 1050 as a sort of hedge that I would have speculated on anyways. Its been brutal, lol, but its nice to finally see my thesis start to play out. It sucks 99% of people will get clobbered tho.
Gold is acting well but silver not along for the ride doesnt bode well. If hedge funds get margin called they will start selling their winners and gold could come under pressure in the short term. Gold is less of a traditional commodity though, so the silver correlation could be meaningless.
In spite of the shitty day for many, I called that we would go limit down this year at least once, and we got so close. Im still declaring myself honorary guru through the weekend and dishing out "I told you so"s to my friends who trade hahaha.
[quote]milktruck wrote:
In spite of the shitty day for many, I called that we would go limit down this year at least once, and we got so close. Im still declaring myself honorary guru through the weekend and dishing out "I told you so"s to my friends who trade hahaha.[/quote]
Quit jacking my thread, Bitch. Everyone know that only I can be honorary guru and head captain on this ship of fools. Did have my SPY puts over double today. Good to be me again.
I just jumped on silver. Damn it looks so undervalued! Did you guys know that all the silver that got stored up since 1980 has been consumed as of now? That mine production is down since 2001? The low price for decades encouraged consumption and discouraged production.
Buy the metal, buy the miners. Seriously.
wtf? how will this affect the value of the dollar, longterm?
[quote]archiewhittaker wrote:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Federal-Reserve-opens-credit-apf-3150539460.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
wtf? how will this affect the value of the dollar, longterm?[/quote]
Stock futures are spiking, DXY falling along with Gold.
This is the short term. Long term?
Don’t know.
Greece got the money. Lets see if they continue down the austerity measure trail, or fall back into giving everything to the unions. We will have to watch very closely to see where the market will head from here. Up pretty good today.
[quote]dmaddox wrote:
Greece got the money. Lets see if they continue down the austerity measure trail, or fall back into giving everything to the unions. We will have to watch very closely to see where the market will head from here. Up pretty good today.[/quote]
This is much bigger then Greece, Spain or Portugal will be the next to fall.
[quote]John S. wrote:
[quote]dmaddox wrote:
Greece got the money. Lets see if they continue down the austerity measure trail, or fall back into giving everything to the unions. We will have to watch very closely to see where the market will head from here. Up pretty good today.[/quote]
This is much bigger then Greece, Spain or Portugal will be the next to fall.[/quote]
I believe the money they all put up will help all countries that will have problems in the near future. We will see if it helps or makes it worse.