Market Predictions. Ignorance on Display

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
261

[quote]dmaddox wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]dmaddox wrote:
Greece got the money. Lets see if they continue down the austerity measure trail, or fall back into giving everything to the unions. We will have to watch very closely to see where the market will head from here. Up pretty good today.[/quote]

This is much bigger then Greece, Spain or Portugal will be the next to fall.[/quote]

I believe the money they all put up will help all countries that will have problems in the near future. We will see if it helps or makes it worse.[/quote]

Where did the money come from? They sure as hell aint taxing there citizens for that money.

262

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]dmaddox wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]dmaddox wrote:
Greece got the money. Lets see if they continue down the austerity measure trail, or fall back into giving everything to the unions. We will have to watch very closely to see where the market will head from here. Up pretty good today.[/quote]

This is much bigger then Greece, Spain or Portugal will be the next to fall.[/quote]

I believe the money they all put up will help all countries that will have problems in the near future. We will see if it helps or makes it worse.[/quote]

Where did the money come from? They sure as hell aint taxing there citizens for that money.[/quote]

IMF baby. American Taxpayers on on the hook for this one also. They are loans, so hopefully they will be paid back. US does not pay the annual dues due to the IMF for membership, but they know who to come to for the bulk of the payouts. We usually put up the most funds out of all countries that are members.

Everyone here is usually against the Fed, but the IMF is much more scarey than the Fed.

263

[quote]dmaddox wrote:

IMF baby. American Taxpayers on on the hook for this one also. They are loans, so hopefully they will be paid back. US does not pay the annual dues due to the IMF for membership, but they know who to come to for the bulk of the payouts. We usually put up the most funds out of all countries that are members.

Everyone here is usually against the Fed, but the IMF is much more scarey than the Fed.[/quote]

We are not going to raise taxes for this, The Fed is going to print more money to pay for this, devalued currency and hyperinflation is just around the corner, as more and more european countries fall more and more fake dollars will flow into the system making our money lose more and more. This bailout is funded by the fed, Let congress try and raise taxes and watch a mob form.

264

- YouTube!

Watch this, Remember Gerald Celente has predicted every single bubble so far.

p.s. I apologize for it being on Alex Jones, this is in no way an endorsment of that assclown.

P.s.s. You only need to watch the first 12-15 minutes.

265

http://www.trendsresearch.com/1987-stockmkt-crash-wsj.jpg

Here an article about his research from the WSJ, where in 1987 after the big drop he seems to be predicting major trouble for the finanacials. If you avoided the financials in 87 you would have missed an eormous multi-year upside move. so it seems he’s been wrong before.

No one is always right.

266

As you all know hind site is 20/20. I see inflation in the future, but just not yet. My crystal ball is a little hazy today. I need to get it checked out.

267

[quote]dmaddox wrote:
As you all know hind site is 20/20. I see inflation in the future, but just not yet. My crystal ball is a little hazy today. I need to get it checked out.[/quote]

Oh yeah its always easy to look back on something and say that you missed it. My biggest problem is when people make predictions, then two decades go by and what they predicted finally happened. Then people go “see they were right” but never mention all the profits you passed up in the two decades that passed before it came true.

Predictions with out time frames are guesses

268

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]dmaddox wrote:
As you all know hind site is 20/20. I see inflation in the future, but just not yet. My crystal ball is a little hazy today. I need to get it checked out.[/quote]

Oh yeah its always easy to look back on something and say that you missed it. My biggest problem is when people make predictions, then two decades go by and what they predicted finally happened. Then people go “see they were right” but never mention all the profits you passed up in the two decades that passed before it came true.

Predictions with out time frames are guesses[/quote]

Well put. Even a clock is correct twice a day.

269

Well, Gold just keeps on making record highs.

Sure you can still gamble in the market and make money just like you could have after the 87 crash but you must understand that you are gambling.

I have been laughed at on this forum called a nutjob, and yet it finally seems I am being proved right. Where is everyone screaming Gold is going to correct down to $800 an ounce now.

270

[quote]John S. wrote:
Well, Gold just keeps on making record highs.

Sure you can still gamble in the market and make money just like you could have after the 87 crash but you must understand that you are gambling.

I have been laughed at on this forum called a nutjob, and yet it finally seems I am being proved right. Where is everyone screaming Gold is going to correct down to $800 an ounce now.[/quote]

I have never called you a nutjob. I am buying silver myself. I think gold is a little over valued. You point about the $800 an ounce, shows that everyone is on the train for precious metals. All bubbles start this way, and then crash.

I actually think gold might go to $1400-1600 an oz, but it will come back down to $800 when people jump off the train. It happened in Tech Stocks, Real Estate, Emerging Market Stocks, and IMO precious metals are next.

If inflation takes off my hypothesis is real estate will do better than precious metals. As long ans democrats are in power the threat of inflation stays high, but come Novemeber people might relax a little bit. Righ now is doom and gloom.

271

[quote]dmaddox wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:
Well, Gold just keeps on making record highs.

Sure you can still gamble in the market and make money just like you could have after the 87 crash but you must understand that you are gambling.

I have been laughed at on this forum called a nutjob, and yet it finally seems I am being proved right. Where is everyone screaming Gold is going to correct down to $800 an ounce now.[/quote]

I have never called you a nutjob. I am buying silver myself. I think gold is a little over valued. You point about the $800 an ounce, shows that everyone is on the train for precious metals. All bubbles start this way, and then crash.

I actually think gold might go to $1400-1600 an oz, but it will come back down to $800 when people jump off the train. It happened in Tech Stocks, Real Estate, Emerging Market Stocks, and IMO precious metals are next.

If inflation takes off my hypothesis is real estate will do better than precious metals. As long ans democrats are in power the threat of inflation stays high, but come Novemeber people might relax a little bit. Righ now is doom and gloom.[/quote]

Gold is not a bubble, Gold/silver are real money. The only bubbles left out there is the commercial real estate bubble and the bond bubble(the european bailout bubble is part of this).

This is not a democrat/republican thing, until you get rid of fiat currency gold/silver will continue to go up and up. The power to create money will tempt all, Bush printed and so did Obama.

272

[quote]John S. wrote:
Well, Gold just keeps on making record highs.

Sure you can still gamble in the market and make money just like you could have after the 87 crash but you must understand that you are gambling.

I have been laughed at on this forum called a nutjob, and yet it finally seems I am being proved right. Where is everyone screaming Gold is going to correct down to $800 an ounce now.[/quote]

I am right here. Gold is going to correct down to at least $800. I told you at the last top, almost to the dollar, to stay away from gold. Approximately five months later, after a good fall, it crawls back to what I suspect is a double top.
My thoughts? Run. You have 97% gold bulls. Could it go higher? Yes. But I suspect not much. The 3% on the sidelines don’t have the juice to move it much further.

Also, just a note on my deflation thesis. The only real sign of inflation has been in the price of gold. David Rosenberg, one of the few economists with a real understanding of deflation, had this to say about inflation this morning.

Just to be a jackass, I am figuring 2016 to be the bottom before we go into an inflationary cycle.

273

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]dmaddox wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:
Well, Gold just keeps on making record highs.

Sure you can still gamble in the market and make money just like you could have after the 87 crash but you must understand that you are gambling.

I have been laughed at on this forum called a nutjob, and yet it finally seems I am being proved right. Where is everyone screaming Gold is going to correct down to $800 an ounce now.[/quote]

I have never called you a nutjob. I am buying silver myself. I think gold is a little over valued. You point about the $800 an ounce, shows that everyone is on the train for precious metals. All bubbles start this way, and then crash.

I actually think gold might go to $1400-1600 an oz, but it will come back down to $800 when people jump off the train. It happened in Tech Stocks, Real Estate, Emerging Market Stocks, and IMO precious metals are next.

If inflation takes off my hypothesis is real estate will do better than precious metals. As long ans democrats are in power the threat of inflation stays high, but come Novemeber people might relax a little bit. Righ now is doom and gloom.[/quote]

Gold is not a bubble, Gold/silver are real money. The only bubbles left out there is the commercial real estate bubble and the bond bubble(the european bailout bubble is part of this).

This is not a democrat/republican thing, until you get rid of fiat currency gold/silver will continue to go up and up. The power to create money will tempt all, Bush printed and so did Obama.[/quote]

Gold/Silver are NOT money. Until you can go into a Toyota dealer and buy your car with gold or silver it is not a widely acceptable medium of exchange, thus it is not money.

Yes it has been money in the past and it might be money via a gold or silver standard again. Until that happens though it is a commodity like any other and can just as easily be overbought as any other bubble.

You have not been proven right by one or two days move in the price of gold/silver. I don’t remember you coming back and talking about how wrong you were on the weeks where the markets rose and gold/silver didn’t. A 3-5% rise over a few days is not that big a deal. Tons of tech companies move like that regularly but it doesn’t portend a Cybernetic dictatorship.

You are a zealot, and have a great deal of tunnel vision regarding your beliefs. In fact you have admitted that you have no back up plan, no diversification and that if you are wrong you will end up with nothing.

Does that sound like a well thought out investment plan from a reasonable individual?

274

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:
Well, Gold just keeps on making record highs.

Sure you can still gamble in the market and make money just like you could have after the 87 crash but you must understand that you are gambling.

I have been laughed at on this forum called a nutjob, and yet it finally seems I am being proved right. Where is everyone screaming Gold is going to correct down to $800 an ounce now.[/quote]

I am right here. Gold is going to correct down to at least $800. I told you at the last top, almost to the dollar, to stay away from gold. Approximately five months later, after a good fall, it crawls back to what I suspect is a double top.
My thoughts? Run. You have 97% gold bulls. Could it go higher? Yes. But I suspect not much. The 3% on the sidelines don’t have the juice to move it much further.

Also, just a note on my deflation thesis. The only real sign of inflation has been in the price of gold. David Rosenberg, one of the few economists with a real understanding of deflation, had this to say about inflation this morning.

Just to be a jackass, I am figuring 2016 to be the bottom before we go into an inflationary cycle. [/quote]

We have never been in this sort of environment – trillions being printed, countries being bailed out which ruins the ones who do the bailing out. The currency is being destroyed.

I would rather just sit on the sidelines with gold (and especially silver because it has not run up yet in terms of dollars). Buy the stocks for gambling purposes.

275

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]dmaddox wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:
Well, Gold just keeps on making record highs.

Sure you can still gamble in the market and make money just like you could have after the 87 crash but you must understand that you are gambling.

I have been laughed at on this forum called a nutjob, and yet it finally seems I am being proved right. Where is everyone screaming Gold is going to correct down to $800 an ounce now.[/quote]

I have never called you a nutjob. I am buying silver myself. I think gold is a little over valued. You point about the $800 an ounce, shows that everyone is on the train for precious metals. All bubbles start this way, and then crash.

I actually think gold might go to $1400-1600 an oz, but it will come back down to $800 when people jump off the train. It happened in Tech Stocks, Real Estate, Emerging Market Stocks, and IMO precious metals are next.

If inflation takes off my hypothesis is real estate will do better than precious metals. As long ans democrats are in power the threat of inflation stays high, but come Novemeber people might relax a little bit. Righ now is doom and gloom.[/quote]

Gold is not a bubble, Gold/silver are real money. The only bubbles left out there is the commercial real estate bubble and the bond bubble(the european bailout bubble is part of this).

This is not a democrat/republican thing, until you get rid of fiat currency gold/silver will continue to go up and up. The power to create money will tempt all, Bush printed and so did Obama.[/quote]

Gold/Silver are NOT money. Until you can go into a Toyota dealer and buy your car with gold or silver it is not a widely acceptable medium of exchange, thus it is not money.

Yes it has been money in the past and it might be money via a gold or silver standard again. Until that happens though it is a commodity like any other and can just as easily be overbought as any other bubble.

You have not been proven right by one or two days move in the price of gold/silver. I don’t remember you coming back and talking about how wrong you were on the weeks where the markets rose and gold/silver didn’t. A 3-5% rise over a few days is not that big a deal. Tons of tech companies move like that regularly but it doesn’t portend a Cybernetic dictatorship.

You are a zealot, and have a great deal of tunnel vision regarding your beliefs. In fact you have admitted that you have no back up plan, no diversification and that if you are wrong you will end up with nothing.

Does that sound like a well thought out investment plan from a reasonable individual?
[/quote]

Please PLEASE keep believing this while we pick up shares and bullion for cheap. When gold is $2500 and silver is $200, when the Dow is at 5000 and the herd begins to stampede away from the dollar, we will be there to collect…if we choose to convert to your paper napkins.

276

Gold is money, this paper shit is over. Gold is the only safe bet, if you measure it in dollars then yes it goes up and down, but what Gold can buy has remained stable. Hence why it is money.

Europe is imploding, all this “bailout” does is devalue our currency even more. Perhaps this would be a great time to start reading into austrian economics.

Prices don’t go up in deflation like we are seeing now.

I have said before in other threads that we would see the collapse happen this year, and it has started. But hey if you want listen to the talking heads on CNBC and invest your money in Europe I hear its a great buying opportunity.

277

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:
Well, Gold just keeps on making record highs.

Sure you can still gamble in the market and make money just like you could have after the 87 crash but you must understand that you are gambling.

I have been laughed at on this forum called a nutjob, and yet it finally seems I am being proved right. Where is everyone screaming Gold is going to correct down to $800 an ounce now.[/quote]

I am right here. Gold is going to correct down to at least $800. I told you at the last top, almost to the dollar, to stay away from gold. Approximately five months later, after a good fall, it crawls back to what I suspect is a double top.
My thoughts? Run. You have 97% gold bulls. Could it go higher? Yes. But I suspect not much. The 3% on the sidelines don’t have the juice to move it much further.

Also, just a note on my deflation thesis. The only real sign of inflation has been in the price of gold. David Rosenberg, one of the few economists with a real understanding of deflation, had this to say about inflation this morning.

Just to be a jackass, I am figuring 2016 to be the bottom before we go into an inflationary cycle. [/quote]

Should we make another 60 day bet?

278

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

We have never been in this sort of environment – trillions being printed, countries being bailed out which ruins the ones who do the bailing out. The currency is being destroyed.

I would rather just sit on the sidelines with gold (and especially silver because it has not run up yet in terms of dollars). Buy the stocks for gambling purposes.
[/quote]

I won’t waste time restating what JoeGood said perfectly well. Gold and Silver are not money. T

hey are Commodities. Furthermore, if the time were to come that they once again became money, it is more likely that the current government would seize them just as they have in the past.

Also, will someone please show me where the Fed, Treasury, Bam or anyone or anything else, has printed trillions of dollars. Ink, paper and ragstock suppliers must be doing very well. What ship or ships did they load it all on and which dock did they unload it on in Greece. Which banks were it then transported to? What denominations were printed?

If I take out a loan on a car, does someone somewhere flip on a printing press, rip out the bills and overnight them to me and/or the bank? Do I ever even see the money?

Remember, fiat money system with fractional reserve lending. Making a loan increases the money supply, but not the amount a paper currency circulating in the system.

This is why I believe we will see deflation first. Yes, inflation will follow, but only after deflation has run its course.

279

[quote]Headhunter wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]dmaddox wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:
Well, Gold just keeps on making record highs.

Sure you can still gamble in the market and make money just like you could have after the 87 crash but you must understand that you are gambling.

I have been laughed at on this forum called a nutjob, and yet it finally seems I am being proved right. Where is everyone screaming Gold is going to correct down to $800 an ounce now.[/quote]

I have never called you a nutjob. I am buying silver myself. I think gold is a little over valued. You point about the $800 an ounce, shows that everyone is on the train for precious metals. All bubbles start this way, and then crash.

I actually think gold might go to $1400-1600 an oz, but it will come back down to $800 when people jump off the train. It happened in Tech Stocks, Real Estate, Emerging Market Stocks, and IMO precious metals are next.

If inflation takes off my hypothesis is real estate will do better than precious metals. As long ans democrats are in power the threat of inflation stays high, but come Novemeber people might relax a little bit. Righ now is doom and gloom.[/quote]

Gold is not a bubble, Gold/silver are real money. The only bubbles left out there is the commercial real estate bubble and the bond bubble(the european bailout bubble is part of this).

This is not a democrat/republican thing, until you get rid of fiat currency gold/silver will continue to go up and up. The power to create money will tempt all, Bush printed and so did Obama.[/quote]

Gold/Silver are NOT money. Until you can go into a Toyota dealer and buy your car with gold or silver it is not a widely acceptable medium of exchange, thus it is not money.

Yes it has been money in the past and it might be money via a gold or silver standard again. Until that happens though it is a commodity like any other and can just as easily be overbought as any other bubble.

You have not been proven right by one or two days move in the price of gold/silver. I don’t remember you coming back and talking about how wrong you were on the weeks where the markets rose and gold/silver didn’t. A 3-5% rise over a few days is not that big a deal. Tons of tech companies move like that regularly but it doesn’t portend a Cybernetic dictatorship.

You are a zealot, and have a great deal of tunnel vision regarding your beliefs. In fact you have admitted that you have no back up plan, no diversification and that if you are wrong you will end up with nothing.

Does that sound like a well thought out investment plan from a reasonable individual?
[/quote]

Please PLEASE keep believing this while we pick up shares and bullion for cheap. When gold is $2500 and silver is $200, when the Dow is at 5000 and the herd begins to stampede away from the dollar, we will be there to collect…if we choose to convert to your paper napkins.[/quote]

This is the mind numbing arrogance of the true believer. The idea that any one who does not agree that their ONE TRUE GOD is the only way must by default be doomed forever.

I know this is going to be hard for some of you to understand but a person can have investments that will do reasonably well in almost all circumstances.

Since you are all knowing and have the ability to forsee the future, exactly when is this going to happen?

280

[quote]John S. wrote:
Gold is money, this paper shit is over. Gold is the only safe bet, if you measure it in dollars then yes it goes up and down, but what Gold can buy has remained stable. Hence why it is money.

Europe is imploding, all this “bailout” does is devalue our currency even more. Perhaps this would be a great time to start reading into austrian economics.

Prices don’t go up in deflation like we are seeing now.

I have said before in other threads that we would see the collapse happen this year, and it has started. But hey if you want listen to the talking heads on CNBC and invest your money in Europe I hear its a great buying opportunity.[/quote]

What exactly, in specific numbers, do you consider the “collapse” and how far of a fall is going to occur before you feel you will have been right? In specific benchmarks please.

This last bit really isn’t meant to be personal but its going to sound like it, sorry.

You bought shares in the worst run silver mining company, not because you did a lot of research and decided that something was going to change, but because a friends broker reccommended it. If thats your investment logic I suggest you might not want to be giving others advice on reasoned investment ideals.

In essence you are that guy who doens’t deadlift but has lots of ideas about whats wrong with other people’s DL.

The thing is though that you could be right. I don’t think you are but if you are I’ll still be okay because I have some gold/silver investments. If I’m right though, I’ll do great and you’ll be crushed. Somehow though you think your plans are the goods ones.