Market Predictions. Ignorance on Display

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
221

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

Hecla is up 133% in the past year, its down 50% over three years. and even over 5 years while its universally regarded as the worst run company in it’s own industry. Since 1982 its down 75% because its a crappy mining company and somehow it missed on revenues this quarter. I get you have precious metals blindness and are going to live and die without any regard about what happens if you are wrong. But why not, at the very least, pick a well managed company?

No insiders have purchased its shares in over a year while several have divested.

For a more serious question. just about every reasonable person knows there is a chance that their investment ideas might well be wrong. What are your investment options if silver doesn’t run?
[/quote]

It was recommended to me by my families broker, I am not married to the company and if I don’t see a decent rise in the next few months I will go to another company.

You do ask a good question, you are right there is always a chance my investment could be wrong. But to tell you the truth I am kind of betting the farm so to speak on silver. If my investment bombs I will probably be asking JEATON for advice.

222

“Those â??in the knowâ?? (insiders) continue to unload shares by the truckload.”

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19061.html

223

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

Hecla is up 133% in the past year, its down 50% over three years. and even over 5 years while its universally regarded as the worst run company in it’s own industry. Since 1982 its down 75% because its a crappy mining company and somehow it missed on revenues this quarter. I get you have precious metals blindness and are going to live and die without any regard about what happens if you are wrong. But why not, at the very least, pick a well managed company?

No insiders have purchased its shares in over a year while several have divested.

For a more serious question. just about every reasonable person knows there is a chance that their investment ideas might well be wrong. What are your investment options if silver doesn’t run?
[/quote]

It was recommended to me by my families broker, I am not married to the company and if I don’t see a decent rise in the next few months I will go to another company.

You do ask a good question, you are right there is always a chance my investment could be wrong. But to tell you the truth I am kind of betting the farm so to speak on silver. If my investment bombs I will probably be asking JEATON for advice.[/quote]

Remember, although I did not correctly call the high in stocks, my opinions on Gold and the dollar have held up very well.

And, for what its worth, I have begun nibbling in on the short side again on the major index ETFs.

Gold looks ready to reverse.

Silver looks ready to reverse.

I could see the dollar selling off a bit in the near term before another run up, but I still see the overall trend as up.

Remember, John, I hedge my bets and make sure to set stops so that my ideology doesn’t get in the way of reality should I be wrong.

“Betting the farm” rarely works, though I do admit to falling for it from time to time.

224

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

Hecla is up 133% in the past year, its down 50% over three years. and even over 5 years while its universally regarded as the worst run company in it’s own industry. Since 1982 its down 75% because its a crappy mining company and somehow it missed on revenues this quarter. I get you have precious metals blindness and are going to live and die without any regard about what happens if you are wrong. But why not, at the very least, pick a well managed company?

No insiders have purchased its shares in over a year while several have divested.

For a more serious question. just about every reasonable person knows there is a chance that their investment ideas might well be wrong. What are your investment options if silver doesn’t run?
[/quote]

It was recommended to me by my families broker, I am not married to the company and if I don’t see a decent rise in the next few months I will go to another company.

You do ask a good question, you are right there is always a chance my investment could be wrong. But to tell you the truth I am kind of betting the farm so to speak on silver. If my investment bombs I will probably be asking JEATON for advice.[/quote]

Remember, although I did not correctly call the high in stocks, my opinions on Gold and the dollar have held up very well.

And, for what its worth, I have begun nibbling in on the short side again on the major index ETFs.

Gold looks ready to reverse.

Silver looks ready to reverse.

I could see the dollar selling off a bit in the near term before another run up, but I still see the overall trend as up.

Remember, John, I hedge my bets and make sure to set stops so that my ideology doesn’t get in the way of reality should I be wrong.

“Betting the farm” rarely works, though I do admit to falling for it from time to time. [/quote]

Agreed, I’ve been a believer in the rally, though not strongly, but I’ve heged the hell out of my positions. I’m also not going to fight the dollar on the way because I don’t see any other currency that can draw investment out of it.

I think we gotten about as much upside as we are going to see for while. I’m long oil in a very long term sense though.

225

[quote]dmaddox wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

[quote]dmaddox wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:
Looks like earnings are coming in high for the most part. The market flutters about Greece and Spain aside I still believe as I said before that fighting this up market until earnings season is over is a mistake and I’m going to stick to it.

Wouldn’t hurt to keep tight stops on your stocks though.[/quote]

Good Call. I agree. I personally have not purchased new stocks, but have let my purchases run. I have been putting new money in to Precious Metals.[/quote]

Personally I think we’ll see a bigger run in Oil from an inflation/dollar devaluation hit. I’m also starting to like the looks of timber land. I keep a small amount of my portfolio in gold but I’m not a big believer in the “end of the world” senarios so it acts as insurance rather than an investment. [/quote]

I see your point. I just like holding the bars, and coins in my hand. I have to trust that the company holding my oil is not going to burn it. I like the timber idea also. It is just hard to buy up the land and get the property ready for collecting the timber.

I know there are stocks/ETFs out there that you can buy to capture the movements in those comodities, but I like the tangeble. I have plenty of stocks, and working on real estate. I am new to precious metals though.[/quote]

An interesting read… “In their infinite wisdom the Fed also allowed the banks to mark to market the hundreds of billions of dollars of worthless assets, i.e., legalizing the very practice that led to the credit crisis in the first place. So banks had great profits and up went the share price. All the better to then shovel out hundreds of billions of new stock and bond issues to an unsuspecting public, and then use the proceeds to pay off the TARP loans! So the banks received interest free loans, invested the free money at a huge spread, fixed any price they wanted on worthless assets, sold new debt to the public at inflated prices, and then gave themselves huge bonuses as a reward.”

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19119.html

226

[quote]JEATON wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:

Hecla is up 133% in the past year, its down 50% over three years. and even over 5 years while its universally regarded as the worst run company in it’s own industry. Since 1982 its down 75% because its a crappy mining company and somehow it missed on revenues this quarter. I get you have precious metals blindness and are going to live and die without any regard about what happens if you are wrong. But why not, at the very least, pick a well managed company?

No insiders have purchased its shares in over a year while several have divested.

For a more serious question. just about every reasonable person knows there is a chance that their investment ideas might well be wrong. What are your investment options if silver doesn’t run?
[/quote]

It was recommended to me by my families broker, I am not married to the company and if I don’t see a decent rise in the next few months I will go to another company.

You do ask a good question, you are right there is always a chance my investment could be wrong. But to tell you the truth I am kind of betting the farm so to speak on silver. If my investment bombs I will probably be asking JEATON for advice.[/quote]

Remember, although I did not correctly call the high in stocks, my opinions on Gold and the dollar have held up very well.

And, for what its worth, I have begun nibbling in on the short side again on the major index ETFs.

Gold looks ready to reverse.

Silver looks ready to reverse.

I could see the dollar selling off a bit in the near term before another run up, but I still see the overall trend as up.

Remember, John, I hedge my bets and make sure to set stops so that my ideology doesn’t get in the way of reality should I be wrong.

“Betting the farm” rarely works, though I do admit to falling for it from time to time. [/quote]

Things like this remind me of Warren Buffet’s first two rules

  1. Never lose money.
  2. Don’t forget rule 1

While I find much more merit in investing in Silver rather than Gold I still am not a big fan of it. If I was looking for a commodity to invest in I would go with Oil or copper.
I also would never let a commodity be my main investment strategy. Just my .02

227

Hey everyone,
This thread has been a very interesting read. I have a little over 5K that I can play with right now (if I wanted, which I don’t). Expenses are minimal, job security high, pay is good so the pot gets bigger just through the paychecks. But I’d like to learn more about investing/trading etc. I am truly ignorant on this subject and would appreciate any suggestions for books/websites/etc etc to read and learn. I am in no hurry to start investing/trading any soon, but want to get some sort of foundation first.

It’s been good reading all your posts—now to be able to understand what you are writing!
Yanni

228

[quote]yannipapal wrote:
Hey everyone,
This thread has been a very interesting read. I have a little over 5K that I can play with right now (if I wanted, which I don’t). Expenses are minimal, job security high, pay is good so the pot gets bigger just through the paychecks. But I’d like to learn more about investing/trading etc. I am truly ignorant on this subject and would appreciate any suggestions for books/websites/etc etc to read and learn. I am in no hurry to start investing/trading any soon, but want to get some sort of foundation first.

It’s been good reading all your posts—now to be able to understand what you are writing!
Yanni [/quote]

Online: Investors business daily (investors.com)

Print: Barron’s (newspaper)

Great learning tool: updown.com (stock-market game)
fool.com

229

recoil time my ass! I refuse to be negative

230

I am really taken aback by this market. Once the European markets close our stocks go up. I think we are in a holding pattern until Friday to see which way the Germans go on Greece. If they come out and help the market will shoot up more than we think it will, and vice versa if they say they will not help. Are we willing to take the risk. My money is tied up in retirement accounts, so I am willing to take the risk. I have 30 years till retirement.

231

[quote]dmaddox wrote:
I am really taken aback by this market. Once the European markets close our stocks go up. I think we are in a holding pattern until Friday to see which way the Germans go on Greece. If they come out and help the market will shoot up more than we think it will, and vice versa if they say they will not help. Are we willing to take the risk. My money is tied up in retirement accounts, so I am willing to take the risk. I have 30 years till retirement.[/quote]

I’d hold my long positions and take out some downside insurance in the form of either downside ETF’s or puts.

232

[quote]archiewhittaker wrote:

[quote]yannipapal wrote:
Hey everyone,
This thread has been a very interesting read. I have a little over 5K that I can play with right now (if I wanted, which I don’t). Expenses are minimal, job security high, pay is good so the pot gets bigger just through the paychecks. But I’d like to learn more about investing/trading etc. I am truly ignorant on this subject and would appreciate any suggestions for books/websites/etc etc to read and learn. I am in no hurry to start investing/trading any soon, but want to get some sort of foundation first.

It’s been good reading all your posts—now to be able to understand what you are writing!
Yanni [/quote]

Online: Investors business daily (investors.com)

Print: Barron’s (newspaper)

Great learning tool: updown.com (stock-market game)
fool.com[/quote]

Thanks archie. I will check these out. If anyone has additional resources, let me know!

Yanni

233

anyone know why Gold took off today? Was surprised silver didn’t move along with it, tho silver is the poor mans gold so I really shouldn’t be expecting a big move in silver for a few months.

I think we may be seeing the double dip if you wish to call it that. Is the stock market going back below 10,000?

*edit

It did go below 10k before bouncing back up, I will be at work before the market closes but this is looking really interesting.

234

The Great Collapse of 2010 has begun. Dow down 714 at 2:47.

The collapse…the collapse…

235

Dow down 998 points. Back up to only down 310 now.

Greece is in for a world of hurt if they do not get the money from Germany. The money may only stave off the real hurt till later.

236

[quote]dmaddox wrote:
Dow down 998 points. Back up to only down 310 now.

Greece is in for a world of hurt if they do not get the money from Germany. The money may only stave off the real hurt till later.[/quote]

Even if they get the money it wont fix anything, look at all the other nations in the EU, they are all about to go through what Greece went through. And once the world is done with Europe we are going to be next on the list.

237

[quote]John S. wrote:

[quote]dmaddox wrote:
Dow down 998 points. Back up to only down 310 now.

Greece is in for a world of hurt if they do not get the money from Germany. The money may only stave off the real hurt till later.[/quote]

Even if they get the money it wont fix anything, look at all the other nations in the EU, they are all about to go through what Greece went through. And once the world is done with Europe we are going to be next on the list.
[/quote]

We at least might have time to fix it before it gets too bad. Novemeber get here quickly.

238

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36999239

Even the thought that this might be true has me laughing my head off.

239

[quote]JoeGood wrote:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36999239

Even the thought that this might be true has me laughing my head off.[/quote]

It is a funny thought. Could this really be the first time this mistake has been made? Uh…doubt it. Maybe the first time this afternoon.

People are ready to dump equities because of sovereign debt panic.

240

[quote]metamorphic wrote:

[quote]JoeGood wrote:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36999239

Even the thought that this might be true has me laughing my head off.[/quote]

It is a funny thought. Could this really be the first time this mistake has been made? Uh…doubt it. Maybe the first time this afternoon.

People are ready to dump equities because of sovereign debt panic.[/quote]

Sure but it might be the first time this has happen when Greeze, Portugal and Spain are either close to or rumored to be close to defaulting on their debt. Together thats a pretty ugly senario.