Carwin’s biggest advantage is going to be his TD defense. Lesnar’s striking has never looked that great. He certainly has power but, as mentioned above, that’s not exactly rare. Carwin has the same power and seems to be a bit more technical or smooth.
Lesnar was a much more accomplished wrestler but taking someone down while being whacked by a guy like Carwin is a whole different ball game. A double leg against Carwin might be more work than it’s worth. If he wants to get it to the ground I think he has to wear Carwin down first or get into the clinch.
Brock does have a size advantage, and I would assume the strength advantage. This should translate to him getting the better of Carwin in the clinch. Maybe even a trip or sweep from here. If Brock gets Carwin down he should be able to maintain control and land some shots.
Carwin might be able to get Lesnar down, but I don’t see him keeping it there. Brock should be able to scramble but might eat a shot or two in doing so.
Outside of a flash knockout, I think this one comes down to conditioning. These are two big beasts that should be locked up for at least a round or two. No one is going to be circling to stay just out of range or playing the counter striking game. They are going to go at it. Brock get tired, Carwin is able to stay in space and tap him on the chin. Lesnar is either out or proceeds to get pounded out. Carwin gets tired, Brock ruffs him up in clinch before taking him down and pounding him out.
I can’t wait for this fight and I hope is goes into later rounds. A quick finish is cool and all, but you don’t get to see the whole bag of tricks.