Latest Zogby Poll

Off Topic Politics & World Issues
41

BB,

Damn fine points in that last post.

Every single Congressmen that voted to authorize knew exactly what that vote meant. It is impossible to believe otherwise - after all, those few Representatives that voted against made it loud and clear that they would not for for the authorization precisely because it was a vote for war.

That’s why I have so much respect for Joe Lieberman. He voted for the authorization and has stood by it. He may think he can do a better job than Bush, hence his presidential run, but at least the man has the beanbag to stand up and defend his words and deeds. The rest of the authorizing Democrats - Howard Dean, of course, excepted, though he crafted a letter to Bill Clinton supporting military action in Kosovo, but has never had to explain why he wasn’t so antiwar then - act as though their vote to authorize war is not a matter of public record.

And here’s the rub - if they voted for the authorization and truly, truly believed it wasn’t a vote for war, how stupid is that? These are the people we should trust with national security decisions? At a minimum, it shows incompetence.

So it’s either dishonesty or incompetence, and I don’t care which, to be frank - either fault excludes these pretenders from the Presidency, Kerry included.

42

Futures market prices for a Bush victory in November are at their highest mark yet:

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

If you Kerry backers think Kerry is a good bet, now would be an excellent time to buy a contract and try to maximize your profit…

43

It’s beginning – Kerry is pulling back in some supposed battleground states that he has no chance to win. The article only barely touches on it, but Kerry is going to be forced to redeploy resources to defend his supposedly “safe” seats:

Kerry Pulls Campaign Ads From Four States

Wed Sep 22, 7:41 PM ET

By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

WASHINGTON - Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry (news - web sites) has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri.

The decision to shrink his political playing field reduces Kerry’s strategic options ? at least for now ? in the homestretch of the campaign. George W. Bush won all four states in 2000, and Kerry can’t win the White House without taking a state or two from the Republican incumbent.

While pulling back from some states that Bush carried, Kerry is still strongly competing in several GOP-leaning battlegrounds, including Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Ads were scheduled to begin airing Oct. 5 in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri as part of a $5 million investment through Nov. 2, but campaign advisers concluded Kerry isn’t doing well enough in the states to justify the cost.

The campaign, which has reserved commercial time in 20 states through Election Day, notified television stations in the four states that Kerry would not follow through on his plans for the first week of October.

Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Arizona, Arkansas and Louisiana are unlikely to see Kerry ads unless there is a major shift in the campaign’s dynamics. Missouri is still the subject of debate inside the campaign, with some advisers pushing to advertise in the traditional swing state.

With its burgeoning exurbs and rural areas turning more Republican every day, Missouri cannot be won by Kerry in a close race, some advisers have concluded. But some think it’s important for the Democrat to spend money there, forcing President Bush (news - web sites) to defend the GOP turf.

Bush and the Republican National Committee (news - web sites) have been advertising moderately in Arizona and Missouri. With Kerry chased from those states, Bush can shift their budgets ? $330,000 this week alone ? to states that Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore (news - web sites) won four years ago.

Kerry spent about $15 million in the four states, half of it in Missouri, trying to put them in play. It was part of a strategy to stretch the battlefield into GOP territory, from Virginia and North Carolina in the South to Arizona in the Southwest and Nevada in the West.

Constantly shifting their strategies, both campaigns recently increased their ad budgets in West Virginia and Colorado. Bush has boosted his ads in Minnesota, Maine and Oregon ? all states won by Gore that Kerry can’t afford to lose.

Ohio and Florida, with a combined 47 electoral votes, offer Kerry his best hope of claiming territory won by Bush in 2000. After that, the options dwindle to a few small states: New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia and Colorado.

Kerry ads are running in 14 of the 20 states in which he reserved commercial time. His schedule calls for ads to begin airing next month in Washington state and North Carolina.

Because of population shifts since 2000 that favor Republicans, Kerry could win every state taken by Gore in 2000 and would have just 260 electoral votes, 10 short of winning the presidency. Gore lost to Bush by five electoral votes, 271-266.

44

If you want to learn about Bush-campaign “strategery”, read this interview with Karl Rove:

45

More than you ever wanted to know about polls and polling:

46

BB:

That’s great news! Thanks for the post.

47

I think the Democrats would have done much better with Lieberman. I also think he would have given them some self-respect back.

48

Swing states are swingin’ red:

Some Swing States Appear to Be Swinging to President
By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE

Published: September 29, 2004

WASHINGTON, Sept. 28 -Days before the presidential debates begin, President Bush appears to be gaining in several swing states he lost in 2000.

Experts caution that the race is highly fluid, but Mr. Bush, for now at least, is surging ahead in several crucial states. Polls show Mr. Bush making headway in Iowa and Wisconsin, both of which he lost last time. He was also building leads in Ohio and West Virginia, states he won in 2000.

All four states have been hotly contested this year. And Senator John Kerry seems to have ceded Missouri to Mr. Bush.

The shocker in the last week was New Jersey, where three polls showed Mr. Bush pulling even with Mr. Kerry. The state, never on the battleground list, has voted Democratic since 1988 and comes with a sizable chunk of electoral votes, 15. Mr. Bush’s strength there was a source of concern to Democrats.

Experts said New Jersey would in the end almost certainly go Democratic, but a snapshot of polls last week put it as a tossup.

Mr. Kerry led in Maine and was solidifying leads in Michigan and Washington, states that Al Gore won in 2000 but that Mr. Bush is contesting this year. Polls also showed the candidates nearly even in Colorado.

An analysis of state polls by The New York Times showed that the race in the last six days has been most competitive in nine states, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and Pennsylvania. They have a total of 105 electoral votes.

These polls show that if the election had been held in the last week, Mr. Kerry would have been able to count on 10 states plus the District of Columbia, for a total of 153 electoral votes, and that Mr. Bush would have been able to count on 18 states with 144 electoral votes. Three other states - Maine, Michigan and Washington - were leaning toward Mr. Kerry, and if they vote that way will provide Mr. Kerry an additional 32 electoral votes, for a total of 177.

Ten others - Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and West Virginia - were leaning toward Mr. Bush and would provide him with an additional 104 electoral votes, for a total of 248.

A total of 270 electoral votes is needed to win.

The first of the three debates is scheduled for Thursday. Then, the campaigns will start examining the responses of swing voters and independents and redirect money, commercials and candidates’ time to where they think they can be most effective.

Last week, Mr. Kerry pulled back advertising time he had bought in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri. He has made little effort in North Carolina, even though it is the home of his running mate, Senator John Edwards.

The hope in the Bush camp, aides said, is that his debate performance will help nail down the swing states where he is leading and let him move more vigorously to contest other states that Mr. Gore won in 2000.

A senior strategist for Mr. Kerry, Tad Devine, conceded Mr. Bush had made gains in Iowa and Wisconsin.

"They will be competitive all the way to the end, without a doubt,‘’ Mr. Devine said.

He predicted that those states would repeat their 2000 dynamic, when late polls showed Mr. Bush ahead but Mr. Gore narrowly won both. Mr. Devine also pointed to recent national polls to say Mr. Bush was on shaky ground.

National polls show Mr. Bush opening up a lead of several percentage points over Mr. Kerry. A Pew poll released on Tuesday gave him an eight-point lead, and a Washington Post/ABC News poll on Tuesday showed a six-point edge. The polls did offer some comfort to Mr. Kerry, with voters in the Pew poll, expressing less confidence in the president on Iraq and saying Mr. Kerry would be better for the economy.

"It’s on its way back toward a dead heat,‘’ Mr. Devine said. "Bush got a big bounce out of his convention. But the bounce is coming down, and the situation is not favorable to him. He’s an incumbent president who can’t gain a decisive advantage.‘’

A strategist for Mr. Bush, Matthew Dowd, said that the electoral map had "tilted’’ to Mr. Bush’s favor and that the Kerry camp had to spend money trying to cement leads in states that voted Democratic in 2000.

"They’re spending a lot of their resources just keeping the Gore states,‘’ Mr. Dowd said. "They are increasing their buys in Maine and Michigan and they’re trying to get Wisconsin back.‘’